# Speaking of Stocks...



## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Anyone watching the stock markets, this week? They have been sliding hard, this week. Everything from concerns over emerging markets to realizations of irrational exuberance is being offered as the reason. 

Opinions? Considering the lies about recovery and the continued QE, coupled with the Chinese manufacturing slowdown and all the war-minded grumblings, are you getting a tad nervous? Does this cause you to look at your preps and think of what else you need to do?


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

Yes it did take a hit, however over 3 months it is up 600 Points from 15,500(dow Jones) to 16,197 (now) Most of that was in the first two months of the quarter (Nov and Dec) so think Christmas. 

Over this month we actually have a loss from 16,357 on christmas eve too 16,197 now. 

I honestly do see some serious issues coming up on the dollar which will directly effect this. Right now, it is a scary place.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

I'm about to put the boots on and head to work, but I have just noticed that the Dow is down 254 points. What a way to end the week. What a motivator to do some things this weekend.


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## wesley762 (Oct 23, 2012)

Everything that goes up Must go down........


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

I think what you seeing is the Big Dogs taking profits. If you catch what is being said on CNBC, the paid shills are reassuring all of us that everything is all right. It is not.

--QE, which the Federal Reserve used to flush the system with easy cash and credit, is going away.

-- Obamacare, the way the law is written, is causing major corporations to cut the hours of many employees to 29 or less a week, so as to avoid being under the mandate. Less work = Less pay.

--Health insurance companies have raised their rates significantly and these raised premiums, sometimes double or triple from what you paid a year ago, are taking away discretionary cash from consumers who used it to buy other things, like cars, TVs and vacations, not healthcare.

--China is slowing down economically, probably worse they will admit. It is well known they fudge their numbers.

The economists who put all this into their economic models can see this is going to roll through the economy and slow things down. This is already apparent in projected corporate earnings.

Again--the Big Dogs are starting to get out now and will leave the little guy and their 401 (k) holding the bag again. They will buy back when the little guy finally sells at even lower, bargain prices for the Big Dogs.

Sell now. Beat the rush.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

I agree, Richard. The central banking printing tactic was doomed to fail. It could only kick the can down the road a ways.


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

Denton said:


> It could only kick the can down the road a ways.


I played Kick the can when I was a kid, nothing felt better than kicking that Can as far as I could and seeing the poor guy trying to find everyone realize they were stuck being "it" again. If I kicked it enough that poor guy would quite and then the game was over.

Read into that all you want.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Denton said:


> I agree, Richard. The central banking printing tactic was doomed to fail. It could only kick the can down the road a ways.


Thanks. When the "Fit hits the Shan" you don't want to be the last guy holding. What the Fed has done is going to effect us all for years. Also, I spent some time working with the Wall Street types during my career and these guys take no prisoners. They will take your last nickel and laugh at you for being so dumb that you let them.


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## tango (Apr 12, 2013)

I am not in the market, but if I was, some serious thought would be in order.
The market is manipulated by the big players, IMO.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

tango said:


> I am not in the market, but if I was, some serious thought would be in order.
> The market is manipulated by the big players, IMO.


Yes. You are right. And they are being aided and abetted by the various talking heads on TV who get paid to shill for them. Watch your ass.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

You'll notice gold/silver didn't fair much better the last two days. I'd bet (but then I don't bet cause I don't do much in stocks) this is a correction that is actually long over due. A little tapering, a little less earnings, a little hype over sochi terrorism, and we get a little correction.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

> DAVOS, Switzerland (AP) -- The International Monetary Fund's managing director warned Saturday of the risks posed to global economic recovery from the reduction of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus and falling prices in the eurozone.


News from The Associated Press



> Over the past few years, the Fed's stimulus, in its various guises has had a big impact on financial markets. As well as shoring up stock markets around the world, the new money created by the stimulus has flown to emerging economies as investors sought out better returns. Currencies, such as the Indian rupee and the Brazilian real, have been beneficiaries. The withdrawal could prompt a reverse in those flows and see their currencies come under pressure.


Think about that.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Denton said:


> News from The Associated Press
> 
> Think about that.


Denton, I do think about this. I have been for a number of years. I find your concerns legitimate and well founded. Things are going out of control. You can just feel it. As you know, I have written about it this. What the Federal Reserve has done will go down in history as the root cause of a financial collapse.

I do not know if the selloff in the stock market last Friday is the beginning of the meltdown in the financial markets or not, but no one is going to ring a bell and say: "This is it." You just come home from work one night and find your 401(k) has been decimated (again) and people will say: "Now what?'

Preppers will be ready for what I have termed in my writings as The Great Unravelling".


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rebroome said:


> Denton, I do think about this. I have been for a number of years. I find your concerns legitimate and well founded. Things are going out of control. You can just feel it. As you know, I have written about it this. What the Federal Reserve has done will go down in history as the root cause of a financial collapse.
> 
> I do not know if the selloff in the stock market last Friday is the beginning of the meltdown in the financial markets or not, but no one is going to ring a bell and say: "This is it." You just come home from work one night and find your 401(k) has been decimated (again) and people will say: "Now what?'
> 
> Preppers will be ready for what I have termed in my writings as The Great Unravelling".


Absolutely. Those who are controlling the crash and burn will not tell a soul. We, the People, are nothing but financial fodder for those people, and we are like little ants, trying not to get stepped on by giants. Worse yet, many of the ants aren't even aware that there is a large foot about to wreck their day.

Yes, one of these days, people are going to wake up and see that their accounts have been routed, their savings accounts have been looted (after all, new edicts have determined your account is not really yours, anymore), and their credit cards no longer work.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Another thing to consider. Not the markets, but interconnected....

Bank-Run Fears Continue; HSBC Restricts Large Cash Withdrawals | Zero Hedge


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Have any of you guys that follow the markets noticed a change in the last couple weeks? For the first time in about three years I noticed that some less than stellar earnings reports by the DOW 30 companies actually caused the markets to go down. Up until the last couple weeks, a bad earnings reports had been causing the markets to rise due to traders believing the Fed would print more liquidity because of the bad numbers, while a good report would cause a sell-off. The last couple weeks it seems like traders are starting to re-attach themselves to some sort of reality. I do not know if that is a good thing because I believe, using fundamental analysis we should be trading around DOW 8000. But...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

This was a policy instituted in November 2013 by HSBC in the UK, not in the United States; I don't bank with them and would not bank with any institution that questioned my need for my money.



Denton said:


> Another thing to consider. Not the markets, but interconnected....
> 
> Bank-Run Fears Continue; HSBC Restricts Large Cash Withdrawals | Zero Hedge


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

My brother reduced his positions in the market by 33% between the first trading day of the year and the 10th. I can only report what he tells me as he is a very active trader and done very well doing so; he said he felt the correction was over due and merely propped up by a few good sales reports late in the year. Also he noted "bad" reports - if you look at them carefully you will notice its not industry wide but specific corporations getting beat by other corps in the same market place. If you don't pick the winner you are going to lose. He had to tell me AT&T was the third most shorted stock in the market place (I don't even know where to find that stat) and told me to bail on it - he knew I kept a few hundred shares due to its stellar dividend.



Inor said:


> Have any of you guys that follow the markets noticed a change in the last couple weeks? For the first time in about three years I noticed that some less than stellar earnings reports by the DOW 30 companies actually caused the markets to go down. Up until the last couple weeks, a bad earnings reports had been causing the markets to rise due to traders believing the Fed would print more liquidity because of the bad numbers, while a good report would cause a sell-off. The last couple weeks it seems like traders are starting to re-attach themselves to some sort of reality. I do not know if that is a good thing because I believe, using fundamental analysis we should be trading around DOW 8000. But...


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Ripon said:


> This was a policy instituted in November 2013 by HSBC in the UK, not in the United States; I don't bank with them and would not bank with any institution that questioned my need for my money.


In 2008, if there had not been an intervention to put massive amounts of liquidity into the system, bank accounts could have been frozen, and you would have been left standing with only the lint in your pockets and the promise you would have access to your money again...some day.

After the Federal Reserve created trillions in credit and easy money to bail out Wall Street and the banks, you can see things are getting shaky again. And...any governemt can definitely take and hold on to your money any time if it suits them. Look at Greece, they did it there.

However, I am sure the President will make a wonderful speech that he is forming a special commission to study this issue.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

A guy I know just posted this on FB

Obama?s Coming Coup D'état Of America


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

As high as the market is...even after the Friday sell off, what is the harm in taking profits in your mutual funds or your stocks? For most people, this is the retirement money in your 401 (k) or IRA. So what if the money sits in cash a few weeks or even a few months? You can just buy back in at a better price and have more shares. 

The market is way overbought and too high. Why sit and lose 20% of your retirement funds suddenly? Do you really think it is suddenly going to spike higher or is that just what the people on the financial TV shows want you to believe? 

There is an old Wall Street saying: "Pigs get slaughtered."

Get safe.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

rebroome said:


> As high as the market is...even after the Friday sell off, what is the harm in taking profits in your mutual funds or your stocks? For most people, this is the retirement money in your 401 (k) or IRA. So what if the money sits in cash a few weeks or even a few months? You can just buy back in at a better price and have more shares.
> 
> The market is way overbought and too high. Why sit and lose 20% of your retirement funds suddenly? Do you really think it is suddenly going to spike higher or is that just what the people on the financial TV shows want you to believe?
> 
> ...


Inor's investing rule #1: Never think about how much you COULD have made if...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

They can freeze my accounts any time. I don't keep enough in a bank to warrant a trip there to wait in line. I do have a brokerage account and yeah I can lose my stocks and holdings as insignificant they are. Should it all collapse those won't be the things I miss.



rebroome said:


> In 2008, if there had not been an intervention to put massive amounts of liquidity into the system, bank accounts could have been frozen, and you would have been left standing with only the lint in your pockets and the promise you would have access to your money again...some day.
> 
> After the Federal Reserve created trillions in credit and easy money to bail out Wall Street and the banks, you can see things are getting shaky again. And...any governemt can definitely take and hold on to your money any time if it suits them. Look at Greece, they did it there.
> 
> However, I am sure the President will make a wonderful speech that he is forming a special commission to study this issue.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

You are a smart person who has your head on straight. Trust nothing.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

*"Inor's investing rule #1: Never think about how much you COULD have made if..."*

Couldn't agree more. And rule #2 is...when in doubt, remember Inor's Rule #1.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

The Asian markets will open in a couple of hours from now and Europe after them, about 5-6 hours before our markets open in the east. You have to wonder if while we are all sleeping tonight, stocks will be sold off in Asia and Europe and money pulled out of the markets before American's get their chance tomorrow and we are left holding the bag, (well an empty bag).


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rebroome said:


> The Asian markets will open in a couple of hours from now and Europe after them, about 5-6 hours before our markets open in the east. You have to wonder if while we are all sleeping tonight, stocks will be sold off in Asia and Europe and money pulled out of the markets before American's get their chance tomorrow and we are left holding the bag, (well an empty bag).


LOL! So, I am not the only one who will be following the markets, tonight.

I suspect there'll be no drama. None of these days that assumption will be wrong, but hopefully not tomorrow.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

It is really hard to predict any more. The market is so volatile. I hope you are right.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

When it happens, it will happen all at once with no warning.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

I would have to think Asia and Europe will be down over night because the US sold off on Friday, after these two other markets had already closed earlier for the weekend. The question is: "Does the US sell off continue or is there a dead cat bounce for US stocks caused by traders looking for bargains after the Friday rout?"

This is always hard to predict. It depends on the level of fear in the markets. Traders are wondering the same things we are. _"It this the time things really go south or can we make another buck or two?"_


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

More interesting stuff.

First HSBC Halts Large Withdrawals, Now Lloyds ATMs Stop Working | Zero Hedge

I am quite sure it is merely coincidental that Lloyds ATM machines fritzed out. Danged ol' happenstances.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Denton said:


> More interesting stuff.
> 
> First HSBC Halts Large Withdrawals, Now Lloyds ATMs Stop Working | Zero Hedge
> 
> I am quite sure it is merely coincidental that Lloyds ATM machines fritzed out. Danged ol' happenstances.


You betcha :lol:


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Japan's Nikkei Average futures down 3.1% on SGX

That is quite a predicted drop in the Asian Markets when they open in about 7 minutes. If this holds, there is going to be a major sell off in Asia tonight.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Off 2%, right out of the gates.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

China halts transfers at Citi, other banks: report - MarketWatch

I would advise people to get concerned. The banks are looking shaky to me with this kind of thing going on. The stock markets are not going to like this on top of the sell off last Friday.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

That isn't good. That is the kind of thing that will keep me up tonight and watching the markets. I'm also guessing that is the kind of attention getting phenom that will cause the FED to make a few calls and let a few people know the presses will be continue to roll for a "bit" longer.



rebroome said:


> China halts transfers at Citi, other banks: report - MarketWatch
> 
> I would advise people to get concerned. The banks are looking shaky to me with this kind of thing going on. The stock markets are not going to like this on top of the sell off last Friday.


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## Mish (Nov 5, 2013)

The sky is falling!!! What do you suggest people do that have money invested right now? SELL? Wait a couple of weeks and buy low?


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

From a Forbes article about the Chinese development:



> Something is very wrong in China at the moment. Banks' apparent need to conserve cash, coming just weeks after the last incident, looks ominous.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Mish said:


> The sky is falling!!! What do you suggest people do that have money invested right now? SELL? Wait a couple of weeks and buy low?


I suggest they should have parked their cash as I did when I started thinking things were getting a bit loopy.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

If you haven't sold it's doing down. If you think you can play the market your better than I. By morning our time or east coast time the fed may have quietly indicated a robust printing to keep things stable and the market could bounce up 200!


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Looks like the markets will open slightly up this morning, which is not all that unexpected after such a sell off last Friday. Question is: "Do you get complacent and sit tight or do you take some profits and watch for awhile from the sidelines with a pile of cash?" Which is the bigger risk? Missing more profits or a sudden reversal and sell off? 

If the market opens up, but starts to sell off during the day, then what you may be seeing is short covering from all the selling that happened right up to the close last Friday. Once the short sales have been covered, then the pros, who are getting out, will resume selling.

For me, the TV hype that "All is OK" is self serving. Can you really believe these guys? They want the little guy to stay in the market and prop up prices while they get out.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rebroome said:


> For me, the TV hype that "All is OK" is self serving. Can you really believe these guys? They want the little guy to stay in the market and prop up prices while they get out.


No truer words have been written. The big dogs have been quietly exiting the stage for some time, and our 401(k)s and IRAs will be left holding the empty bag.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

rebroome said:


> Looks like the markets will open slightly up this morning, which is not all that unexpected after such a sell off last Friday. Question is: "Do you get complacent and sit tight or do you take some profits and watch for awhile from the sidelines with a pile of cash?" Which is the bigger risk? Missing more profits or a sudden reversal and sell off?
> 
> If the market opens up, but starts to sell off during the day, then what you may be seeing is short covering from all the selling that happened right up to the close last Friday. Once the short sales have been covered, then the pros, who are getting out, will resume selling.
> 
> For me, the TV hype that "All is OK" is self serving. Can you really believe these guys? They want the little guy to stay in the market and prop up prices while they get out.


Take AAPL out of the mix and re-calculate the averages and I think you will see today looks a lot like last Thursday rather than a "dead-cat" bounce off Friday. Carl Icahn just bought $3.4 billion in AAPL which is driving the price up. Since that is a one-time event, it skews the overall market numbers to the positive. Of course, as I write this the markets have been open for all of 6 minutes. We'll see what happens throughout the day.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Denton said:


> No truer words have been written. The big dogs have been quietly exiting the stage for some time, and our 401(k)s and IRAs will be left holding the empty bag.


If you look at my bio, I speak from experience. I was never a trader, but after my 27 years in the military, I did work on Wall Street for about 19 years on their computer systems, their disaster recovery and their general preparedness for a crisis event. I got to know the place.

Be careful out there.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rebroome said:


> If you look at my bio, I speak from experience. I was never a trader, but after my 27 years in the military, I did work on Wall Street for about 19 years on their computer systems, their disaster recovery and general preparedness for a crisis event. I got to know the place.
> 
> Be careful out there.


I researched you when you first came here. I know who you are. _I know what you did last summer_ (movie reference, don't wig out :lol.

I have no bio, but I have enjoyed short term trading for quite some time. Used to do options trading back in the 90s, and had a blast. Didn't think it was worth the cardio-vascular damage it could inflict, though! Every morning was like preparing for combat.

On a side note, I hate Maria Bartiromo. :grin:


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Seems the markets are not doing well, today. NASDAQ is down 1.5%, and the Dow is in the red at .40% down. S&P down .74%

I know, this is just a snapshot, but it's still something to watch.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Denton said:


> I researched you when you first came here. I know who you are. _I know what you did last summer_ (movie reference, don't wig out :lol.
> 
> I have no bio, but I have enjoyed short term trading for quite some time. Used to do options trading back in the 90s, and had a blast. Didn't think it was worth the cardio-vascular damage it could inflict, though! Every morning was like preparing for combat.
> 
> On a side note, I hate Maria Bartiromo. :grin:


You made me laugh when you described options trading. My mind flashed on the scene in the movie "Trading Places" when Dan Ackroyd and Eddie Murphy are calmly combing their hair in the bathroom at the Options Exchange just before trading opens while everyone else in the bathroom is throwing up, drinking antacids, or drinking booze from a flask.You trade options and you don't know if you are going to get wildly rich or completely wiped out. Not for me.

Market seems to be holding the pattern I was expecting. Up at the open, then down during the day. We will see if this holds. One thing to worry about are the technical support levels. If these get breached on the downside, program trading could kick in and accelerate the selling. Dow is down -75, S&P -15, NASDAQ -70. What could change this are bargain hunters buying later in the day.

BTW: I have a Marie Bartiromo story, that I will share off-line sometime. I have to go teach a class right now.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

My feelings on MB was solidified one day when she was doing a piece from the floor. The traders were running like maniacs, and one of them brushed against her. She stopped her piece, turned toward where the runner had been and yelled, "Hey! I'm trying to do a story, here!" Arrogant little twit. How dare those who are working get in her way of reporting. :evil:


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## Vagabond (Jan 14, 2014)

Denton said:


> Anyone watching the stock markets, this week? They have been sliding hard, this week. Everything from concerns over emerging markets to realizations of irrational exuberance is being offered as the reason.
> 
> Opinions? Considering the lies about recovery and the continued QE, coupled with the Chinese manufacturing slowdown and all the war-minded grumblings, are you getting a tad nervous? Does this cause you to look at your preps and think of what else you need to do?


Maybe not just a tad...


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Well....the markets kind of went like I thought they might today. The key for tomorrow is to what happens in Asia tonight.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

rebroome said:


> Well....the markets kind of went like I thought they might today. The key for tomorrow is to what happens in Asia tonight.


The markets are doing better today, but I still think there is a shoe or two out there waiting to drop.

Beware the dead-cat bounce - The Technical Indicator - MarketWatch

The market technical indicators are still deteriorating.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Between a meaningless State of the Union speech, the moves with the Turkish Lira last night, and the general continued worry about what is happening in the emerging markets, the stock market looks to be resuming its sell off today. 

Again...at what point does the rubber band snap and computer programmed selling seize control of trading and really drive it down much very suddenly and much deeper?

You don't want to get caught in this and be the last one out the door.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Speaking of stocks, the Dow is down 205 points, ATM.

Fed stays on taper course:
Fed stays the course by tapering another $10 billion - The Fed - MarketWatch


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

This will all end badly.


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

I have pie.

I read up on you too rebroome and had to subscribe to this thread, thanks for keeping us updated with your information.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

The S&P 500 ended a point below what was said to be an important support level. Thoughts about it?


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

Denton said:


> The S&P 500 ended a point below what was said to be an important support level. Thoughts about it?


Shaq missed his Free Throw again? Seriously, i'd like to hear some intelligent thoughts on this, mine are sub level here.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

These S&P point levels are important because if a technical support level is breached, it could trigger computer generated selling depending on what number the trading algorithm is set at to start selling off positions. This is typically a range of values and each firm will differ at what numbers to use, based on their own internal market analysis. I would expect this is a hot topic of discussion inside the various trading firms tonight and being decided right now. Also, it will not be just one number but several, i.e., each trading firm will set their own number for themselves to start selling, and subsequent numbers to increase selling. 

The markets in Asia open in a few hours (it is tomorrow there) and I expect them to sell off early tonight, followed by Europe after midnight. If the US futures are way down at the open tomorrow morning, that could cause another downside breach, which will be triggered if the machines are allowed to take over. Think flash crash. That's the danger.

I need to go teach a class right now.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

The good news is that it had dipped a few points lower than that, but recovered some before the bell rang.

I certainly expect the Nikkei to lose some of yesterday's gain.

Another interesting night, followed by what I expect to be a boring day for us, tomorrow. Boring, being not a bottom-dropping day.


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

I do not trade but I am assuming this is a Automatic Trade point created so when it dips peoples trade limits are hit and the "auto Sells" are done by the computers. This would create a drop and lower it further creating more Automatic trade point triggers dropping it further till we have a pretty good sized snowball.... Am I getting it?


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Silverback said:


> I do not trade but I am assuming this is a Automatic Trade point created so when it dips peoples trade limits are hit and the "auto Sells" are done by the computers. This would create a drop and lower it further creating more Automatic trade point triggers dropping it further till we have a pretty good sized snowball.... Am I getting it?


Yes. In fact, you said it more clearly than I did.::clapping::::clapping::


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Like my mamma always said, they da devil!


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

rebroome said:


> These S&P point levels are important because if a technical support level is breached, it could trigger computer generated selling depending on what number the trading algorithm is set at to start selling off positions. This is typically a range of values and each firm will differ at what numbers to use, based on their own internal market analysis. I would expect this is a hot topic of discussion inside the various trading firms tonight and being decided right now. Also, it will not be just one number but several, i.e., each trading firm will set their own number for themselves to start selling, and subsequent numbers to increase selling.
> 
> The markets in Asia open in a few hours (it is tomorrow there) and I expect them to sell off early tonight, followed by Europe after midnight. If the US futures are way down at the open tomorrow morning, that could cause another downside breach, which will be triggered if the machines are allowed to take over. Think flash crash. That's the danger.
> 
> I need to go teach a class right now.


Japanese markets are down 3%.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Yup, they lost previous gains, alright!


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

This is what you must endure if you buy individual stocks. A sell off of a general index like the S&P 500 take all 500 boats down some. That in all likely how will lower index stocks to particular industries or sectors. Which triggers stop limits in individual stock holders. It feeds on itself. Only when a big boy sees a bargain does the drop stop.

This is why I insist on buying fundamentally sound dividend paying stocks. The price is not relevant to my quarterly payday. That is assuming I did my homework.


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## Gunner's Mate (Aug 13, 2013)

Stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. Here is a hot tip for you the stock market is a scam its freaking ponzi scheme that the Feds are in on. I will say this I have never lost one dime in stocks, but I have made and never lost money in real estate (because its real) and when the bankers get called on it guess what they raid your 401k and rape taxpayer with the blessing of the feds to cover their ass. Here is scenario for you. You go and buy food insurance for the SHTF end of the world "you invested" they took your money now when the SHTF and they dont deliver the food to your door step what are you going to do you have some nice paper fancy paper that says you have X amount of food stock that's going to be less than delicious. PAPER = NOT REAL Know lets say you invested in rice, beans water and 5 gal buckets and stored them in your garage (THAT IS REAL and going to be nice and tasty) which would you rather have ???? STOCKS WORTHLESS / REAL ESTATE IS NEVER WORTHLESS


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## Gunner's Mate (Aug 13, 2013)

Knock Knock 
whos there 
the Chinese and they want their money?


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Gunner's Mate said:


> Knock Knock
> whos there
> the Chinese and they want their money?


Chu's there, and he wants his money.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

I did some analysis, the S&P has to hold at 1765 tomorrow or more selling.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

rebroome said:


> I did some analysis, the S&P has to hold at 1765 tomorrow or more selling.


"China manufacturing PMI at 49.5: HSBC"

More evidence the Chinese economy is contracting. The market will not like this news.


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## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

The Nikkei has dropped 511.53 (3.33%) after today"s DOW J drop of 189.77 (1.19%) When Obama speaks the stock market drops.


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## Gunner's Mate (Aug 13, 2013)

Well we all know that Obummer is the guru of picking winners how many companies did he subsidize with tax payer money that went bankrupt


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Seems there is concern of a deflationary period.

World risks deflationary shock as BRICS puncture credit bubbles - Telegraph


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Looks like a big rally at the open. Back from the edge of the abyss. 

Market liked the GDP number, plus there must still be some short sales to cover. What to watch: Does this hold through the day or is there selling by the market close? The problems in the emerging markets have not gone away overnight. Plus, there are some more announcements expected today by the Turkish government that will impact the Turkish currency. 

A see-saw pattern in the day-to-day market like we are seeing is too volatile to make good decisions. It has me convinced staying on the sidelines the best course right now.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Denton said:


> The good news is that it had dipped a few points lower than that, but recovered some before the bell rang.
> 
> I certainly expect the Nikkei to lose some of yesterday's gain.
> 
> Another interesting night, followed by what I expect to be a boring day for us, tomorrow. Boring, being not a bottom-dropping day.


As I said, a boring day. The Nikkei got its bell rung a little harder than I expected at the end of the day, though.


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## Silverback (Jan 20, 2014)

I find it sad actually that the day after the SOTU address, stocks plummet and facebook is filled with pissed off people being laid off. So those hyped numbers just god worse.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

I think it had more to do with the Fed reporting it will continue its tapering, and the continued contraction in Chinese manufacturing, but it was a little funny how it appeared that Obama's voice can cause things to shrivel, huh?


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Stock Futures Slide as Global Concerns Mount | Fox Business

The Big Dogs are growling again. It's going to be ugly at the opening today.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Strategists eyeball these S&P 500 levels - The Tell - MarketWatch

If you remember our earlier discussion about levels in the S&P, that if breached on the downside could accelerate computer generated selling, we are getting close again.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

It seems after a run on Gold investors figure it was time to bail and went back to stocks. May or may not have been justified. Don't really madder .
The facts are there is only so much investment cash and it went back to stocks of a while.
The Bond market is being supported by Obama to a tune of 85 Billion a month, he may not be able to keep that up. So what happens to the Bond market when Obama is forced to bail out?


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

As interest rates rise this year, owners of bonds who bought a lower rates will find the value of their bonds go down.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I've grown up and live most of my life only a few miles from "Stockton, CA" one of the first bigger cities to go bankrupt. The city borrowed money for sewer lines, water lines, roads, and even amenities like a hockey rink / arena, minor league baseball stadium, yacht harbor. Most of these bonds were low interest, government issued, tax free, and most of those who bought them are going to loss their backside because judges ruled they can't short union contracts only bond holders / creditors. Why would anyone buy such bonds in this world today? I don't get that? I get the sellers - for when I was on the City Council the sellers pushed us to offer bonds routinely - we did once - secured against a 30 year state lease and actually made money. Otherwise we avoided debt like the plague. Stockton and the other cities engaged debt like the Federal Government - taking on all they could. I don't get how Stockton gets away with Bankruptcy and still owns a hockey arena, minor league baseball stadium and yacht harbor. I also don't understand why they can't force the city to raise its taxes and pay back its creditors - they borrowed and expended the money.



rebroome said:


> As interest rates rise this year, owners of bonds who bought a lower rates will find the value of their bonds go down.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Market resumes going south today. The S&P has been breached. The trend ain't your friend.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

There are a thousand different takes on market ongoing; here are a couple different takes. One, mainstream, and the other is not:

The crisis is reflation, not emerging markets - MarketWatch

My Blog


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

By the way, the one that says, "my blog" is not mine.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Given what the Fed and other central bankers worldwide have been doing for the last few years, propping up the markets with easy money, we are now experiencing withdrawal symptoms through out the global markets. We are like an airplane trying to take off, but don't have enough airspeed to gain sufficient altitude to avoid hitting the trees at the end of the runway. This is uncharted territory. 

Speaking of charted territory, the pattern of the S&P 500 is eerily close to the pattern just prior to the crash of 1929 and the global depression.

Preppers are going to be ready at least.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

From my experience on Wall Street, I think the machines are in charge of the market at the close today. Much of this is programmed selling on. The average investor in 401(k)s and IRAs are the ones getting slammed, because they are told to sit tight and ride it out. The Big Dogs are getting out right now, taking their profits and preparing to have the little guys for supper once the panic selling begins and the market craters.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

The regime will demand a "re stimuli" prior to the Nov 2014 elections - watch.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Really good point. I have no doubt you are 100% right about this. Look for it to happen in late spring or early summer so the economy starts to pick up again just before the elections in November.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Obviously, the markets are racist or this is all part of the vast right-wing conspiracy. Hell, even Ripon posted the really super awesome news that the labor markets are in better shape than they have ever been.

http://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/7181-obama-huge-success-just-look.html

If you are not singing Zippity-Do-Da out your butt, it is because you cannot stand having a black man in the White House. So kick back and enjoy your Victory gin citizen.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Tokyo just closed.

Nikkei down about 3.69%, about -540 points. Still shaking out as the market just closed.

Shanghai Hang Seng -543, 2.47% down, ATM.

Interesting times, maybe. Hopefully not.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Denton said:


> Tokyo just closed.
> 
> Nikkei down about 3.69%, about -540 points. Still shaking out as the market just closed.
> 
> ...


Seems the Nikkei has shaken out to be down 4.18%, down 611 points to 14,008. Imagine the Dow doing that, tomorrow.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Good info on the Asian markets, but several heavily traded US stocks were up after closing yesterday - I don't know what time they froze / cut off trading but after hours trading they were bouncing a little - to the up side.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Look for an up market opening because of both the short sale covering and a Dead Cat Bounce. I would not expect this to hold throughout the day and another sell off towards the close. 

I would then expect more selling on Wednesday because the moving averages have been breached on the downside so much. 

Guess we will see if I am correct.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Looks like I missed the call on this one. Question is: Was that it or will the markets sell off more on Wednesday? Standard & Poors declared Puerto Rican bonds to be in junk status about 15 minutes before the close. I was surprised there was no effect on the market by this announcement.


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## Pir8fan (Nov 16, 2012)

Looking more and more like a full blown correction. Guess the smoke and mirrors of Obamanomics are finally being seen in their true light.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Everyone should just put your money in Obama's new saving account he is setting up for you.
It will be safe there

Unless your in it for the long run playing stocks is gambling not investing


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Pir8fan said:


> Looking more and more like a full blown correction. Guess the smoke and mirrors of Obamanomics are finally being seen in their true light.


I would add that the true economic impact of ObamaCare is just starting to be realized. You cannot suddenly raise health insurance costs, or shrink the labor force (latest CBO report) without hitting the economy. That money you had set aside for a new car or a vacation suddenly went to raised insurance premiums, which you have no chioce but to pay to cover your family. Your work hours get cut by your employer, to make you only part-time, so the money you have left has to go to rent and food. This fact about the impact of ObamaCare is becoming more and more clear.

The traders on the street, no doubt, are seeing this trend in their economic models. They will continue to sell steadily, until the point everyone finally wakes up to this and there is a sudden mad rush to get out of overpriced stocks and mutual funds.

Crash.

By that time traders are mostly out and it's the average Jane and Joe left holding.

http://www.nationalreview.com/corne...part-time-work-confronts-obama-andrew-johnson

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101352868


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Emerging markets are final tweet of doomed canary in coal mine, says ultra-bear Albert Edwards - The Tell - MarketWatch

Good luck out there.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Notice the disconnect between silver ETFs and the spot price of silver...


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## Pir8fan (Nov 16, 2012)

We're seeing nervousness throughout our client base as they begin to bring in their tax information. Talking with our hundreds of small business clients, there's no optimism out there at all.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Remember that consumer optimism runs the markets. If people become worried about something it affects the market and it really doesn't much matter what they are worried about.


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Scary 1929 market chart gains traction - Mark Hulbert - MarketWatch

I'm just sayin.......


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Something else to consider as the weather is blamed for everything under the clouds...

THE BROKEN LIMB & BURST PIPE FALLACIES « The Burning Platform


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## rebroome (Jan 16, 2014)

Crash of 2014: Like 1929, you?ll never hear it coming - Paul B. Farrell - MarketWatch

George Soros has doubled his bet that the market is going way down.


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