# how do u know when to bug out?



## Catfish Prepper (Feb 28, 2013)

If shtf how would you know its time to bug out? If the shtf would the government take control over the news media? It was just a question I've been thinkin about... I plan to bug in as long as possible but bugging out will also be an option.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Our system is watch the news when you see cut backs in government hands outs coming, when the riots start in the major cities ect. Time to get to the starting line.
Watch the political events in the major cities it will start there first. 
Remember the Watts riots and Detroit days of rage that is what it will look like only it will not stop due to government cash being dropped off .


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## jc-hunter (Nov 13, 2012)

I agree with Smitty. Another thing to signal the right time would be the initiation of Martial Law, which I believe would be followed by gun confiscation. So staying put in populated areas would make you a target.


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## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

You would have to be aware of Martial Law in the first place.

If the Internet get's shut down and the News teams don't get the news how will you know?

We didn't know about the BS going on in DeToilet in '67 until we couldn't buy beer or gas in a container. That was 3 days later and it was almost over. I lived 2 miles away from the city limits BTW


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Is the frog boiling?


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## ElPasoLoneWolf (May 5, 2013)

AquaHull said:


> You would have to be aware of Martial Law in the first place.
> 
> If the Internet get's shut down and the News teams don't get the news how will you know?
> 
> We didn't know about the BS going on in DeToilet in '67 until we couldn't buy beer or gas in a container. That was 3 days later and it was almost over. I lived 2 miles away from the city limits BTW


That s why we all need Ham radios, they will shut down all the usual means of communication & travel in a martial law/ civil unrest type event.

A question we should also be asking is what type of SHTF scenario is it? A pandemic or soar flare knocking out the power grid are also very likely in my opinion and that affects my plan for evading the SHTF scenario, especially the pandemic.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

BTW I surmise that if I miss the window to bug out (unlikely cause I'm a paranoid sort and my BOL is everything I could want) the best time to leave
your home be it on foot or in a vehicle is about 3:15 AM. I figure to move at least 2 hours which gets me clear of all cities and urban areas by a bunch
and can maneuver from there as needed either waiting until the next nightfall or rushing thru during the day. By vehicle my BOL is 6 hrs under
normal conditions. On foot its 30 - 60 days depending on how paranoid I am about moving but most moving would be between 3:15 / 5:15 AM.


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## Blademaker (Feb 22, 2013)

Catfish Prepper said:


> If shtf how would you know its time to bug out? If the shtf would the government take control over the news media? It was just a question I've been thinkin about... I plan to bug in as long as possible but bugging out will also be an option.


IMHO, cuts to welfare, food stamps, and other entitlement programs, and runs on the bank to remove $$$ that isn't going to be worth shit.
I think that the leaches are gonna put up with this for about 2-3 days.......*maybe.* And that's being optimistic.

Then they're gonna start looking for food and charity so they can continue their lazy assed ways.

But I'll be looooong gone.

If the gov't imposes martial law and shuts down the internet, I'll be gone sooner.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Martial Law will be a result of the violence in the major cities. It could be a result of a natural disaster also .I would not be a concern in the beginning of a natural disaster but more as time goes on. Martial Law even for what seems for good reason could turn ugly in a short time.
We have a slightly different plan that is to BUG in. We have safe houses along routes that may need to be used to get here. Others will already be here or here in minutes. As things heat up the those on the other limits will fold in to our last stand. And lock it down.
If we see signs of it coming that cause us worry we will start moving people in sooner no reason we can't if we jump the gun we can always back off.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Another good SHTF indicator is empty store shelves for no apparent reason, or gas stations out of gas.


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## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

A decision to bug out depends on your location and its relative safety in comparison to the nature of the threat(s) that confront you.

Bugging in when facing a Category V hurricane or an out-of-control wildfire is a real bad idea, but you usually have sufficient warning from traditional news media to adjust for such natural disasters. Tornadoes - usually you have warning, and need a weather alert radio for nighttime.

Earthquakes give no warning, so people in quake zones need to be prepared in case of damage to structures that make bugging in unsafe.

Chemical spills, industrial plant catastrophes, train derailments, and sudden onset events give no warning (usually) and so you have to adjust to the situation. 

Riots and civil unrest can be anticipated if you pay attention to local news and think critically.

War in the Middle East will cause gasoline to skyrocket in price so you need to watch for trouble brewing abroad.

Bottom line: there is no single warning sign that can be relied on - you have to stay vigilant and you need to stay situationally aware. And you need to monitor news and weather reports.

But if you do happen to see a bunch of emergency responders who are suddenly hauling a$$ past you, with fear on their faces, as you are going in the opposite direction, that might be a real good indication you ought to turn around and go with them. Because when the people who get paid to move towards trouble are high-tailing it away from danger, that means it is time to get the heck out of wherever you are...!


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## punch (Nov 6, 2012)

This thread is an excellent example of what a great group of folks we have on this site. Everyone contributed something useful and positive considering the subject at hand. We all can learn from events in the news media, liberal as they are. But just look at it with a critical eye and common sense. Yet we are painted to look like hoarders and gun toting nuts. If anything this thread is gonna have me listening to my shortwave just to compare the news to what is broadcast locally and to know where to tune when disaster happens. Best to know that now then when I am starved for news of whats going on during a crisis event. Thanks all!

punch


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

Verteidiger,
I think you said that well, for me it's critical thinking coupled with situational awareness that sets the tone. There are situations where one bugs out in advance and there are the situations where it's an on the spot call. I've had to bug out due to a wild fire. My neighbors set their livestock loose and they were milling around in my yard as I packed up to go...surreal.


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## Moonshinedave (Mar 28, 2013)

As already written being aware of whats going on, talk of Marshall law, of security checks, of temporary limited people's rights. Welfare running out of handouts would be a warning sign, worth of a dollar, stock market going crazy....stuff like that.
I think for some bugging out is the answer, some bugging in would be wise. If I lived in the city, I would be more apt to bolt sooner than where I live here, (not the boonies, but more country than city. If you did live in the city, remember there will probably be hoards departing sooner or later, might want to get ahead of them.


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

Where is equally as important as when.
If one doesn't have a plan and an alternate plan of where to go. A rock solid plan that has a good chance of succeeding, then bugging out is simply trading bad situations. Out of the frying pan into the fire...so to speak.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Most definitely!

As I noted I have a long ways to go, and lots of different routes at time to get there. I traveled to my BOL at least once and usually twice a month the past few years. Early on I took different routes, looked over alterantive solutions, like horse ranches and what roads enabled me to avoid towns of any and every size. Using google earth I scoured trails, rail lines, canals, and fire lines that might help me move away from roads. I have several vehicle paths I can use, two bike/horse paths, and one really ugly foot path that will keep me out of just about everyone's view.

Going back to the OP how astute are you about the news? How fast do you think "STHF" can happen? Clearly there are some things people would never see coming - EMP attack, earthquake, etc. Then there are things that should give you a few hours or maybe days notice - storms, floods, pandemic, etc. I think we could all debate how fast the economy could collapse; but in my guess its probably at least 72 hours. Then again imagine obama had lost in a "questionable" election last November and the next morning the judge throws out the Zimmerman case? What do you think Wednesday would have looked like in some areas of the country - IDK cause I'd have been at the BOL.



Seneca said:


> Where is equally as important as when.
> If one doesn't have a plan and an alternate plan of where to go. A rock solid plan that has a good chance of succeeding, then bugging out is simply trading bad situations. Out of the frying pan into the fire...so to speak.


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

The worst that can happen is to wait too long, and find that your super secret BOL is already occupied or has been picked clean of the supplies you'd stashed and were counting on. 

A good idea is to have a BOL that is already occupied 24/7 by somebody you know and trust, and who will also let you store some of your preps and supplies on site. 

I know what it's like to have someone show up on my doorstep hat in hand...It stretched my budget and food preps thin. I've since replaced, them and recovered...yet...If you are going to bug out to another persons home...you really shouldn't show up unannounced...lol


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

In my mind for most fan hitting scenarios I think you will have 72 hours to travel unmolested. how long it takes you to commit to bugging out reduces your lead time.


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## unknownsld (Mar 19, 2013)

In all honesty, for those of us within city limits bugging out will be hard to do. That's why it is best to live at least 20 minutes out side of a major populated area. I am referring to the country. You are then at/close to your bug out location. Once you notice something is not right, military vehicle convoys or federal agent convoys heading into big cities as well as a s**t ton of military aircraft then you'll know it's time to bug out/bug in.


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## Catfish Prepper (Feb 28, 2013)

yall have cleared up alot of what i have been wondering about, and provided me with some great info. I have only been prepping for about a year now, so im still fairly green. but i just wanted to say thanks all.


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## MI.oldguy (Apr 18, 2013)

Watch the news,listen to the scanner,listen to what the hams are saying.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

When the bankers and politicians both say, "there is nothing to worry about, everything is under control" it is time to get the heck out!


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

PaulS said:


> When the bankers and politicians both say, "there is nothing to worry about, everything is under control" it is time to get the heck out!


Crapo PaulS, based upon your post I should already be there!!!

haha


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## AntiObama (May 13, 2013)

Montana Rancher said:


> Another good SHTF indicator is empty store shelves for no apparent reason, or gas stations out of gas.


Best answer. IMHO


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## livinitup0 (May 22, 2013)

bugging out never made much sense to me unless there was a fire or some other disaster that made my place inhabitable....not really sure why so many preppers think that their BOB is the end all be all prep...obviously everyone in my family has one, but its just a basic 72 hour kit to get to another location... and if the S really did hit the F in a big time disaster, im barricading the doors, boarding up the windows and staying put with all my preps and defensive capabilities.

I dont know why anyone would want to bug out in a without rule of law scenario unless they had a place already very close to them that was much much more secure and fully stocked than where they already are... when the shtf, the last thing I want to be doing is traveling.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

There are circumstances I can see bugging in as more prudent. For example a storm. Katrina, hurricanes, etc if you have all the preparations in place and safety on high ground and simply want to make sure the looters don't enjoy your supplies then bugging in makes perfect sense.

However if you, like me, have an ideal bug out property which is 100% self sustaining, stocked, and so rural that its completely safe from the likes of man kind and the "SHTF" seemed inevitable with in days or even hours - why not go there? Why would I risk bording up a 50 year old home, on a 10,000 square foot city lot, with enough fruit trees to attract the worst of people, and no possible way to defend successfully from a party of more than 10 or 12 people? Also knowing that street gangs will likely rule the area or at the very least areas only a few miles away. I wouldn't want to be caught here trying to wonder if "SHTF." If I sense - I leave. Leaving early just enables me to take more with me. If I can only leave with a bug out bag I'm going to be a really foul mood, but I can do it.



livinitup0 said:


> bugging out never made much sense to me unless there was a fire or some other disaster that made my place inhabitable....not really sure why so many preppers think that their BOB is the end all be all prep...obviously everyone in my family has one, but its just a basic 72 hour kit to get to another location... and if the S really did hit the F in a big time disaster, im barricading the doors, boarding up the windows and staying put with all my preps and defensive capabilities.
> 
> I dont know why anyone would want to bug out in a without rule of law scenario unless they had a place already very close to them that was much much more secure and fully stocked than where they already are... when the shtf, the last thing I want to be doing is traveling.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Verteidiger said:


> But if you do happen to see a bunch of emergency responders who are suddenly hauling a$$ past you, with fear on their faces, as you are going in the opposite direction, that might be a real good indication you ought to turn around and go with them. Because when the people who get paid to move towards trouble are high-tailing it away from danger, that means it is time to get the heck out of wherever you are...!


If you don't work as an Emergency Responder or in an Emergency Room networking with those who do can be a good prep. Remember if you see EOD running catch up!


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## SAR-1L (Mar 13, 2013)

Most of the answers in this post seem to be from an environment based ( political, economic, etc. ) indicator stand point.

I would probably suggest that the best time is when you know your current place is no longer defensible. Or when you start seeing that supplies are reaching a preset line equated to no longer of value to defend it vs the value of being mobile. This is all circumstance oriented. There is so many factors as well. But I honestly believe people will know when they should, the hard question will be if they would? 

Just keep this in mind though. The best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing you can do is the wrong thing, the absolute worst thing you could do is... nothing.


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## punch (Nov 6, 2012)

some or even most of us will have been loaded up and on the road 2-4 days before the masses do. If you are in line at a gas station hoping to stop by walmart for bottled water, beef jerky and a 2.5 gallon gas can, then you are already screwed. Good luck because that 2.5 or even 5 gallons won't do diddly when you are bumper to bumper and every gas station is either bone dry or higher than a cat's ass. I'll likely send the family ahead with the bulk of supplies and follow shortly afterwards. Someone mentioned in a previous thread that the optimum time to bug out was around 3 or 4 a.m or there abouts. No traffic and way ahead of those leaving at 6 a.m. Sounds good I guess as most have there BOL within 2 hours. The prudent will be long gone way before then. Once you see how everybody bogs down and traffic slows to a crawl you'll never wait until the last minute again. I don't want to tell stories of woe. I just want to get to my cabin grab my fishing poles and start pulling big mouth bass out of the lake. Sure I'll dart into town to grab what I can if need be. But if I do half of my preps, I'll still be good for a couple of weeks. The best outcome is that we get to spend time at the lake and will learn from any mistakes we may have made. Nows a good time to put yourself in the place of the folks in Moore, Oklahoma. Yes they are used to tornados, but do you think they expected it to dwell on the ground for 30+ minutes and booger up the whole town? What would you do in that situation? Learn from their experience. Did anyone notice the striking videos and press coverage of the kids and parents? Now remember how sterile and sanitized the Sandy Hook video footage was... I'm just sayin'...

punch


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I have mentioned leaving around 3-4 AM in the case of being caught in a situation like an EMP or an instaneous event that gives no one warning and bugging out is quite difficult. Fact is most of the low lifes you might run into will run out of gas (figuratively) by that time and be sleeping it off and its the safest time to travel - especially on foot or by bike / horseback.



punch said:


> some or even most of us will have been loaded up and on the road 2-4 days before the masses do. If you are in line at a gas station hoping to stop by walmart for bottled water, beef jerky and a 2.5 gallon gas can, then you are already screwed. Good luck because that 2.5 or even 5 gallons won't do diddly when you are bumper to bumper and every gas station is either bone dry or higher than a cat's ass. I'll likely send the family ahead with the bulk of supplies and follow shortly afterwards. Someone mentioned in a previous thread that the optimum time to bug out was around 3 or 4 a.m or there abouts. No traffic and way ahead of those leaving at 6 a.m. Sounds good I guess as most have there BOL within 2 hours. The prudent will be long gone way before then. Once you see how everybody bogs down and traffic slows to a crawl you'll never wait until the last minute again. I don't want to tell stories of woe. I just want to get to my cabin grab my fishing poles and start pulling big mouth bass out of the lake. Sure I'll dart into town to grab what I can if need be. But if I do half of my preps, I'll still be good for a couple of weeks. The best outcome is that we get to spend time at the lake and will learn from any mistakes we may have made. Nows a good time to put yourself in the place of the folks in Moore, Oklahoma. Yes they are used to tornados, but do you think they expected it to dwell on the ground for 30+ minutes and booger up the whole town? What would you do in that situation? Learn from their experience. Did anyone notice the striking videos and press coverage of the kids and parents? Now remember how sterile and sanitized the Sandy Hook video footage was... I'm just sayin'...
> 
> punch


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