# How long will it last?



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

*This thread is part of the "Coming Civil War" group of threads.
Please see the Primer/Premise thread --> HERE <-- for context and links to other related topics.*

What would the next civil war look like from a logistics perspective?
How long can any side hold out? Will resupply even be a thing? Yeah, you can scavenge off the dead, and you can loot whatever buildings you route. But can any side sustain a protracted war?

The only ones prepared for such a thing would be the government/military, and they require massive resources.
I don't care how much money Soros or Bloomberg pour into it, there's only a finite amount of resources they would have amassed before the start, and only so much they'll be able to acquire after it kicks off. The military will confiscate what it needs to continue, assuming it stays together. Will the military split into factions by state? I would suspect they would not be sympathizers to Antifa/BLM, and certainly wouldn't accept Foreign Invaders.

Will states form alliances? Will National Guard groups form a new unified military under the orders of a collection of states?

I personally can't imagine all sides holding out for even a month of sustained fighting. One or two might. If folks band together with a tremendous amount of luck, they might be able to defend a strong position for 2 months against equal or lesser opponents. Once the military considers you a target, however, you're pretty much toast if you're clumped together in a pre-formed pile. All they have to do is apply sufficient pressure and heat, and you'll be in your own mass grave in a matter of seconds.

Guerrilla warfare will be successful to some extent. It will still require a network of supporters, regardless of which side we're talking about. Guerrillas only last as long as the people around them are willing to keep quiet and provide cover/misdirection. This is where Antifa/BLM will struggle. Unless you have a rock solid agreement with the locals, they won't risk keeping around arsonists and looters who can't be controlled. Foreign Entities will have some luck if they can find footholds in sympathetic border towns. I can easily see Texas/Arizona/New Mexico/California border towns opening up to the drug cartels for the protection, and of course the threat of violence.

The first civil war spanned 4 years.
Without any resemblance of the same order and structure to the opposing sides this time, I can't imagine there isn't a decisive winner, or two(split country), within 6 months. Agree? Disagree?
Perhaps another topic for a separate discussion... What would a split country look like? Our power is in our size. Start splitting parts off, and they are ripe for the picking by world players that have been salivating over American land for centuries.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

I've heard that there is a prophecy or two about a 13 month war. I have no idea where the supplies would come from. Frankly though I think the UN will be involved by invitation from a number of governors. They have kindly offered to assist several times recently. I think that is their goal to get boots on the ground. I think you can figure out who the dominate players will be in the peacekeepers forces.

Now this is JMHO but I think the US as a whole will be gone. Balkanization. How will that play out, I have an idea but that's pure speculation. But I think a number of states will band together for mutual assistance and protection.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

inceptor said:


> I've heard that there is a prophecy or two about a 13 month war. I have no idea where the supplies would come from. Frankly though I think the UN will be involved by invitation from a number of governors. They have kindly offered to assist several times recently. I think that is their goal to get boots on the ground. I think you can figure out who the dominate players will be in the peacekeepers forces.
> 
> Now this is JMHO but I think the US as a whole will be gone. Balkanization. How will that play out, I have an idea but that's pure speculation. But I think a number of states will band together for mutual assistance and protection.


How did I forget the U.N.???
This is good.
There will be a topic soon concerning the various sides that could arise in the conflict. I'd appreciate your inclusion of the UN as another player.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I see a balkanization as well with many factions competing for power. Let's never forget the UN and foreign players who will gladly jump in the fray if for no other reason then to see the USA fall to pieces. China, Russia, the fat kid in NK, Middle East Rogue states, and your friendly neighborhood terrorist would all be in the mix in some capacity. Our civil war could quickly devolve into WWIII.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Kauboy said:


> How did I forget the U.N.???
> This is good.
> There will be a topic soon concerning the various sides that could arise in the conflict. I'd appreciate your inclusion of the UN as another player.


The UN has announced at Davos and publicly in June that the UN wants to do a "great reset" globally. Unless they are able to do the US, doing the rest of the world would be tough.



> The purpose of the Great Reset isn't merely to enact policies that would lead to additional wealth redistribution, but rather to completely overhaul the world's existing structures and institutions. Among other things, Schwab has said of the Great Reset, "the world must act jointly and swiftly to revamp all aspects of our societies and economies, from education to social contracts and working conditions."


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/al-gore-un-secretary-general-great-reset-global-capitalism


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Prepared One said:


> I see a balkanization as well with many factions competing for power. Let's never forget the UN and foreign players who will gladly jump in the fray if for no other reason then to see the USA fall to pieces. China, Russia, the fat kid in NK, Middle East Rogue states, and your friendly neighborhood terrorist all would all be in the mix in some capacity. Our civil war could quickly devolve into WWIII.


I completely agree. I've said it time and time again.. Balkanization is the result. And yes. Should the UN or any other country attempt to invade it w ill be WW3 .

Actually my hope would be that should any other country or the UN take steps, that Americans from all sides would join together and stop them and unify again. But that's a dream and not reality. As my brother pointed out, the dems and radicals will welcome them.. like california and the west coast.

And it will last a LONG time.. and be an insurgency by both patriots and radical left.

I see bad clouds on the horizon.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

So here is the issue with CW2.

Where will the NSA/military/LEO’s and the likes stand? 

That may decide the length. 

Currently they are not arresting Antifa or even Governement offices/press for inciting violence... will they start arresting “us” for wanting to put an need to Antifa and the “revolution”? Us being conservatives. 

I think if they start doing that the true S will HTF.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Piratesailor said:


> So here is the issue with CW2.
> 
> Where will the NSA/military/LEO's and the likes stand?
> 
> ...


Actually, the Portland riots ended precisely because Trump sent federal agents up there to start arresting and charging people with federal crimes. They identified the main instigators and rounded them up. Two days later, the riots that had raged for over 100 days abruptly stopped there, and started springing up elsewhere.
*IF* Trump is still in charge of these agencies, he's directing them to find ways to end the riots without overtly stepping on governors or using a heavy hand.


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## Notold63 (Sep 18, 2016)

I think it may be closer then we think. Recently my brother was stopped by a LEO and at the end of it he said he was required to ask one more question. The question was “do you have a firearm in your vehicle”? When my brother answered “no”, the LEO said “in that case, I have another question, why not”? He continued “with the way things are going you want to start doing so”. 

I don’t push my beliefs on being armed at all times and having a “ get home bag” when I’m away from home, but I don’t make it a secret with close family members either. My brother and my sister have started doing the same just this week. I believe many in law enforcement see something dark coming our way.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

in my own opinion, I feel that any organized terrorist activity on a scale larger than what we have already seen will bring immediate military response.
The reason it hasn't already happened is because Trump is obeying the law.

Notice that this activity is only happening in states that are allowing it to happen.
Results would be much different if BLM, Antifa or others tried this in, say, Florida. Governor DeSantis would pull no punches and send in the National Guard, armed and taking no BS.

That said, if you think you are a "good guy" and on the "right side" if you are armed and organized when the military rolls in you most likely will be percieved as just another aggressor group and dealt with accordingly.

I expect, and welcome, the military to restore order. Both state Guard and federal troops.

Myself, I am going to maintain a low profile, and defend our farm. The nearby town? That is "outside my perimeter" and the residents there need to take care of it.

How long will it last? Not long at all once Infantry, Armor, and air assets (helicopter gunships) go to work.
Yes, individual terrorists may continue their program, and will have to be dealt with. But organized, large scale, terrorist activity will cease in short order.

If some pansy snowflake like Biden is in control, all of the above scenarios will become moot.


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## keith9365 (Apr 23, 2014)

When the South succeeded from the Union they immediately formed a separate government with the power to print money, Tax, and form an Army first through volunteers then conscription. The government also had the power to organize arms procurement and food distribution. Without these things in place I don't think it could last long. The confederate army eventually lost by taking away the Mississippi River, Sherman cutting off food and supplies in the Deep South and Sheridan destroying food production in the Shenandoah Valley. The violence is for the most part contained to certain areas of large population centers. When the food trucks stop rolling in to restock the grocery stores they will be in real trouble. Napoleon said an army travels on its belly.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

rice paddy daddy said:


> in my own opinion, I feel that any organized terrorist activity on a scale larger than what we have already seen will bring immediate military response.
> The reason it hasn't already happened is because Trump is obeying the law.
> 
> Notice that this activity is only happening in states that are allowing it to happen.
> ...


I'm kinda like you except I don't have a farm, I'm in the burbs. I'm staying mostly at home and at this point (I found out this morning) I have one neighbor I can count on. We live far north of DFW but my wife still works on the other side of the metromess. Yes I pray daily for her safety. Dallas just cut the OT out of a department that is very short handed. The police chief there, a transplant from Detroit, just turned in her resignation. I expect FW to follow suit soon.

One upside to all of this, like DeSantis in FL, Abbott has introduced legislation to make much of the stuff done in the PNW have a much harsher sentence attached, some with mandatory minimum sentences.

A few years ago I would have flatly stated that this can't happen in Texas. Then all the refugees from liberal states started flocking in. Now I'm really not sure.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

keith9365 said:


> When the South succeeded from the Union they immediately formed a separate government with the power to print money, Tax, and form an Army first through volunteers then conscription. The government also had the power to organize arms procurement and food distribution. Without these things in place I don't think it could last long. The confederate army eventually lost by taking away the Mississippi River, Sherman cutting off food and supplies in the Deep South and Sheridan destroying food production in the Shenandoah Valley. The violence is for the most part contained to certain areas of large population centers. When the food trucks stop rolling in to restock the grocery stores they will be in real trouble. Napoleon said an army travels on its belly.


Without division lines, how do you cut off resources to *only* the enemy?
Cutting off supply lines to a region means your allies in that region are cut off as well.
Tactics will have to be very different from what was done when you knew who was friend and who wasn't. This going to come up in another thread soon. Keep an eye out.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Moved to this thread https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/urban-rural-survival/123241-when-will-start.html


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

inceptor said:


> If y'all haven't seen this yet, it's worth watching. @Kauboy if I posted this in the wrong place, let me know and I'll repost it there. I found this while looking for other information.


This might fit perfectly within the "When will it start?" thread that seeks to determine the cause that will lead to the first shot fired.
I think an election scam could be one of the major triggers, and it's why I put the time frame as close as 1 month away.


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## keith9365 (Apr 23, 2014)

Kauboy said:


> Without division lines, how do you cut off resources to *only* the enemy?
> Cutting off supply lines to a region means your allies in that region are cut off as well.
> Tactics will have to be very different from what was done when you knew who was friend and who wasn't. This going to come up in another thread soon. Keep an eye out.


I think that they will cut their own supply off because they will cause conditions to become so dangerous that truck drivers will refuse to enter the cities. Unfortunately good and bad will suffer alike.


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## Notold63 (Sep 18, 2016)

If you are forced to go into a city or on an interstate near a city, be prepared for the chance of being stopped by a mob, and having them try to be pulled out of your vehicle.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

keith9365 said:


> I think that they will cut their own supply off because they will cause conditions to become so dangerous that truck drivers will refuse to enter the cities. Unfortunately good and bad will suffer alike.


They have actually and proudly pushed video's that show stopping trucks, beating the driver and looting the load. Oh yeah, truckers have and will continue to refuse loads into those areas. No one wants to be another Reginald Denny.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Well.. the Portland riots continue. Fed intervention was probably too lite. And the riots are springing up in other places. Personally, I think there is a groundswell with the riots culminating in the election and/or SCOTUS appointment. November may make February and March look like it was the best of time (remember it was the night of the wuflu scare).

I don't know if you guy get read Powerlineblog.com but there as a good, if somewhat lengthy, article about how we got where we are today. Here is a line from zerohedge with the same article. Again, LONG.. but rather informative.

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/revolution-2020-how-did-we-get-here-and-how-will-it-end


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Piratesailor said:


> Well.. the Portland riots continue. Fed intervention was probably too lite. And the riots are springing up in other places. Personally, I think there is a groundswell with the riots culminating in the election and/or SCOTUS appointment. November may make February and March look like it was the best of time (remember it was the night of the wuflu scare).
> 
> I don't know if you guy get read Powerlineblog.com but there as a good, if somewhat lengthy, article about how we got where we are today. Here is a line from zerohedge with the same article. Again, LONG.. but rather informative.
> 
> https://www.zerohedge.com/political/revolution-2020-how-did-we-get-here-and-how-will-it-end


Legally the feds can't intervene unless request by state authorities. What the feds are doing there is simply defending federal property.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

inceptor said:


> Legally the feds can't intervene unless request by state authorities. What the feds are doing there is simply defending federal property.


The Insurrection Act clearly allows federal intervention if the state refuses to enforce the law to protect the rights of citizens.
From Wiki:


> The Act empowers the U.S. president to call into service the U.S. Armed Forces and the National Guard:
> 
> when requested by a state's legislature, or governor if the legislature cannot be convened, to address an insurrection against that state,
> to address an insurrection, in any state, which makes it impracticable to enforce the law, or
> to address an insurrection, domestic violence, unlawful combination or conspiracy, in any state, which results in the deprivation of Constitutionally-secured rights, *and where the state is unable, fails, or refuses to protect said rights*


This is what we'll see post election.
Trump will likely do it, win or lose.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Kauboy said:


> The Insurrection Act clearly allows federal intervention if the state refuses to enforce the law to protect the rights of citizens.
> From Wiki:
> 
> This is what we'll see post election.
> Trump will likely do it, win or lose.


Post election. Not before. He wants people to understand why he's doing it and he won't do it until the last minute.

I don't know, at least I don't think things are bad enough at this point. After the election there will be no doubt. The liberals have left little doubt this will happen and have been quite vocal about it.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

inceptor said:


> Post election. Not before. He wants people to understand why he's doing it and he won't do it until the last minute.
> 
> I don't know, at least I don't think things are bad enough at this point. After the election there will be no doubt. The liberals have left little doubt this will happen and have been quite vocal about it.


Completely agree.
For now, he's playing the waiting game because it gives him a win either way.

He waits for the governors to ask, and he looks like the hero sending in resources to stop the violence. It's a tacit acceptance that the inept Dem governors are worthless.
He avoids sending them in preemptively and gives his opposition zero claims of "tyrannical authority" that they so often try to accuse him of. (ANY true dictator would have cleaned house by now)
After the election, he might very well *appear* dictatorial, even to those who don't completely hate him(those that do already think it).
Don't get me wrong, he'll be well within his authority to deal with it, but I doubt he will pull any punches in setting things right.


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