# Worst Case vs. Most Likely



## Carp614 (Jan 21, 2013)

I have seen a lot of great discussions about SHTF and WROL scenarios and a lot of great ideas about how to survive in those situations.

But...

Mass extinction events, total economic collapse, EMP's, super volcanoe eruptions and the like are "worst case scenarios". Let's say, for arguments sake, the odds of any of these situations happening are 1000 to 1 in your lifetime. Are there other events with better odds that one would be wise to prepare for?

Enough about worst case, let's talk about most likely.

What are the most likely scenarios that a prepper should consider? What should you prepare to protect your family and property in those scenarios?


----------



## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

The "Experts" on Nat Geo say an economic collapse of the US is unlikey. With that in mind, why does the Deutsche Bundesbank want $36 billion in gold back from the US. The gubbermint wouldn't even let them inspect there gold, and we know how much Germans love gold. So they say if we can't look at it, give it back.

China is buying up real estate here with printed money we created out of thin air, so in effect , we are giving China free property, and choice parcels at that.

ASEAN is getting away from the greenback as a reserve currency. Germany has NUKES(Ours) and they have started at least 2 World Wars before if you don't count "The Crusades"

When China has all they want from the US, they can declare a to be named common ASEAN currency note to bypass us altogether. A so-called Mart of Nations trading together.

Just a Ramble On this morning.

Since we don't make much of anything , we would have nothing but monopoly money to wipe our butts with.


----------



## gin_and_pete (Aug 25, 2012)

Every now and then when I am buying survival items or making plans for a particular SHTF scenario, the thought crosses my mind that just maybe I am over thinking things and that I could possibly be doing all this for nothing. Then I read a news article on another dumbass shooting up a school or hear about another lie falling from the mouths of the ones running this country...I immediately snap back to reality and grab a few extra supplies while their on sale....
I think the most likely scenario is a huge crash in the economics of this country far worse than the historic "Great Depression". This will kick the survival mode ( or stupidity mode for many) into over drive, forcing individuals in to a major panic and driving the country as a whole back a developmental century or two. Of course the ones stock piling and preparing for their own survival the smart way will take a bit of the brunt of the chaos due to the rations that will be set by the government (not to mention the mark up on prices if the USD has any value at all) leaving individuals and single family 'preppers' easier targets. It would be like moving Paris Hilton to the "hood" or project housing area...You just know she bout to get robbed. Its going to be one giant cluster-f....well you know what I mean. And you can best believe that there will not be a gracious foreign country waiting to send us funds or their soldiers to help us through the tough times...we are on our own.


----------



## nadja (May 1, 2012)

You can do nothing about world changing events. However if you believe like I do that either the economy will collapse or the grid will go down, then there is a lot you can do. If Jellystone were to pop, then the planet is pretty much dead.


----------



## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

So don't worry be happy, when considering Jellystone, look at Yogi and Boo-Boo, the only one unhappy is Ranger _Rick.

I forgot about the pic- i -nic basket owners


----------



## 9UC (Dec 21, 2012)

Carp614 said:


> I have seen a lot of great discussions about SHTF and WROL scenarios and a lot of great ideas about how to survive in those situations. Enough about worst case, let's talk about most likely. What are the most likely scenarios that a prepper should consider? What should you prepare to protect your family and property in those scenarios?


Even at my age, I was a little too young to get into "the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming" other than to play the game of "duck and cover" under my desk at school. The run to the hall and cover during tornado alerts, even then, made more sense. For me, here in the desert surrounded by faults, earthquakes with both short and or long term loss of utilities would be first on my list followed by economic collapse if the government shuts down welfare payment.


----------



## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Carp614 said:


> ...Enough about worst case, let's talk about most likely.


*Solar flares *have blown out power grids and electronics on a small scale many times in the past, so it's very likely to happen again anytime, they come in 11-year cycles and 2013 is predicted to be a peak year. Nowadays we use more electronic stuff than ever before, so the effects are likely to be more widespread. 
At worst, the national power grid could be out for days or weeks before it's fixed, so we'll need alternative light and heat sources to tide us over til then.

*MAJOR SOLAR FLARES THAT HAVE ZAPPED EARTH*-

_Sep 1859- Telegraph wires burst into flames, touching off fires .Telegraph machines scorched paper printouts, stunned operators with electric shocks, transmitted gibberish, and continued working for hours even after being unplugged from the batteries that powered them. The Earth itself was no longer "grounded"!

November 1882- another massive solar flare lit lamps, disrupted telegraph communications, and set off several fires on the Chicago telegraph switchboard, melting instruments.

November 1903- solar storm not only disrupted telegraphs and the transatlantic cable; it even shut down Swiss streetcars.

March 1940- severe solar storm burnt out fuses and damaged hundreds of miles of telegraph and telephone networks.

March 1989- a major solar flare shorted out Quebec's power grid. Circuits also overloaded in Great Britain, New York and Virginia. A critical transformer melted in New Jersey.

November 2003- an "X" solar flare, the strongest of solar storms, temporarily disabled many satellites, killed one satellite completely and and burned out an instrument on a Mars orbiter. The crew of the International Space Station took shelter, reporting elevated radiation readings and "shooting stars" in their own eyes.

September 2005- a string of "X" solar flares caused lesser disruptions to major power grids and knocked out the GPS system completely for ten minutes.

June 2011- a moderate solar flare caused minor satellite disruption, unusual amount of static on phone lines.

http://greekgeek.hubpages.com/hub/ma...lar-flare-1859 _


----------



## nadja (May 1, 2012)

I do think we are in for a lot more trouble with solar flares then most suspect. Congress did a study a few years back and were advised to replace our entire grid system as it was patched together and very old. They all but guarenteed that it would fail completely should it be subjected to a large solar flare type event. They laughed. Well, now the solar flares are upon us and we will see what happens when ignored as ours has.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Well carp614 the most likely for me is a flood or earthquake. I'm in the central valley of California we don't get much earth quake activity right on us - I've felt a few in my life
but they impact the neighbors and then they get restless. I'm not far out of the flood zone and I guess only a dam break from having to haul ass. While those might be more 
likely than an EMP or catastrophic event I find preparing for the worse provides me two benefits. One is that the more likely / lessor problem is thus easier to handle and second
I like knowing what I'm doing is benefiting the kids - now I have no kids so I am referring to the next generation of my family produced by my brothers and sisters. Most of them
are good kids - except one - damn FBI agent - just kidding.

My dad laid the ground work for me to prepare. God Bless what he did for me and my wife and I intend to pass that along to the nephews and nieces.



Carp614 said:


> I have seen a lot of great discussions about SHTF and WROL scenarios and a lot of great ideas about how to survive in those situations.
> 
> But...
> 
> ...


----------



## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

And flares could also blow out the electronics in our radios and TV's in the same way as an Electromagnetic Pulse from a nuke bomb, so I've flare-proofed my radio (below) by removing the batteries, wrapping it in a plastic bag, then wrapping it in kitchen foil. (the plastic bag is needed to insulate the radio from the foil).
Then when everybody else is running round asking "what's the word on the street?", i'll be able to pick up news broadcasts to find out. 









PS- I might get a pocket TV like this as backup (if they're still made) and flare-proof that too-


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Well if I woke up and noted that power was out, looked out and saw a car stalled in the street, and then found my flashlight, cell phone and nothing else electrical working - I really don't care what some politician is going to be saying over the radio. No offense your method to keeping the radio is alive and well but I prefer the components that will get my SUV on the road so I can get the HELL out of DODGE before everyone else figures out they are %$#$ed.



Lucky Jim said:


> And flares could also blow out the electronics in our radios and TV's in the same way as an Electromagnetic Pulse from a nuke bomb, so I've flare-proofed my radio (below) by removing the batteries, wrapping it in a plastic bag, then wrapping it in kitchen foil. (the plastic bag is needed to insulate the radio from the foil).
> Then when everybody else is running round asking "what's the word on the street?", i'll be able to pick up news broadcasts to find out.
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

According to the IMF, 2016 will be the end of our economic dilemma. That's when they figure we are toast. But the new king (did you see the king returns posters at the celebration?) could make it happen sooner. That being said, others think we can make it to 2027. 

One thing the king has been promoting is class warfare. This would also be another possibility especially as the economy gets worse.

The king also told Bob Woodard that "this country could absorb another 9-11". It could also reek more havoc. 

NASA put out an article a year or two ago that I read. This stated 2012/2013 would be the worst time for damaging solar flares. I have heard they have switched back and forth a couple of times but who knows. 

Those are my most likely scenarios.


----------



## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

Look at it in another perspective, wherever you live just keep going back in history in 50 year increments or use your family as an example, In my fathers time was ww-2 his father saw ww-1 and the great depression, his father saw or was at-least living during the civil war. If you divide the last 1000 years into 50 year increments that alone would give you a 1/20 chance of living during the black plague. So why do people think that we have somehow conquered supper major disasters. The potential for an even greater disaster is now because of how many parts of our system are dependent on one another and the weapons of war are much more powerful then they have been in the past.


----------



## Carp614 (Jan 21, 2013)

what if our society is capable of recovering from individual catastrophic events, but not several:

Economic crisis kills the dollar and the resulting inflation cripples our economy
A series of 100 year storms damage infrastructure across the nation
a CME causes significant damage to the power grid

Updates to Limits of Growth already suggests that we are on the unsustainable path that results in significant and disruptive, uncontrolled population decline between 2030-2050. 

Any combination of the above would presumably accelerate the process. 

North Korean and Iranian nukes are monkey wrenches too. Barring significant global conflict I think we have at least 5 years before SHTF. Significantly more if the politicians can get there heads out of there proverbial back sides.

So I'm thinking the first thing to do is prepare for weather first, then power, then chaos.


----------

