# Protocol for knowing when to bug out



## MBoehm (Aug 12, 2020)

Hello preppers,

My partner and I have spent the last year preparing a property in a remote area that we can use for bail-out purposes when SHTF. It is, however, several hours' drive away from the metro area in which we reside. I am interested in knowing if people have developed some kind of logical, rational framework regarding how to know when to bug out. Since the actual act of bugging out can be disruptive towards one's career/family/friendships etc, it is important to pick just the right moment to know when to pull the trigger. Going up-country too soon can be a significant waste of resources and could cost you your 'day job,' but waiting too long could be even worse.

So... how do you know when it's time to go?

I'm looking for some rational, structured approach. Not just "you'll know it when you see it." Some way of establishing a defcon-style countdown. Ideally something that can allow advance warning.

For example: A points based system, where you keep tabs of major events and add the points up, and if the daily total ever exceeds 100 points, it's time to bail out: 

Widespread lawlessness/vigilantism/unchecked violence in your metro area: +15
Widespread lawlessness/vigilantism/unchecked violence in other metro areas in your country: +5
Large-scale war between two or more major world powers: +20
Military skirmishes between two major world powers: +10
Disruption of essential services (utilities, food supply, etc) observed in your metro area: +20
Disruption of essential services (utilities, food supply, etc) reported in other metro areas in your country: +20
ETC

You know, that kind of thing. Is that useful?


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## Robie (Jun 2, 2016)

Good question.


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

I recently read Selco's book The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival: The Brutal Truth About Violence, Death, & Mayhem You Must Know to Survive.

He was trapped in a war-torn city for one year in Bosnia in 1990. He writes great Prepping articles based on his experiences.

According to him your question is the most asked question he receives. His response is don't do as he did as he did not observe close enough and failed to leave until it was too late.

His advice is simply *"Get out prior to the day the trucks stop delivering to the city."*


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

This is the advice we give to persons that will travel the interstate to our Group Retreat. Hope it helps you.

1. Get on Interstate and never get off it.

2. If sleep is required, sleep on shoulder of interstate within sight of off ramp in front of you.

3. Dress the part. Both wear light colored hardhats as much as possible. If needing to snooze she needs to wear a ball cap. 
She needs to wear dark colored man's round neck tee shirt and loose fitting man's jeans. When out of truck, wear long tail shirt to hide hips. 
Boots, Ponytail and no makeup are in order.
Note: Only local drivers wear hard hats in truck. You want the hard hats to be seen from a distance.

4. Loud handguns handy.

5. Sandwiches, canned Beenie Weenies, Fruit Cocktail, etc.

6. Poncho, urinal bottle, toilet paper and HandiWipes.

7. Blankets, first aid kit.

8. If red gas cans are needed, paint them black to disguise them so other travelers don't see them until they pass you refueling.

9. Be leery of driving on non-interstate roads after dark. You will always look like a target then.

10. Hide long guns in back of truck under debris.

11. If stopped, explain you are going to do emergency gate welding for the sheriff in next town. Keep track of next town's name.

12. Expect the trip to require three times normal time and three times the fuel requirement.

13. Try not to pull a trailer as It may make you a target.


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## gyro_cfi (Jan 12, 2016)

I work in Texas but live in Iowa. Earlier in the year I was concerned that the borders would be shut down and I wouldn't be able to get to my wife. 
When I heard that several military units had been recalled, I took that as my go signal. Packed up my hotel room, emailed my boss I was going to return to Iowa and drove all night.
They never closed the borders and I lost two weeks of work. Moral of the story though, you may jump the gun too soon, that's ok. Being late on a decision of when to leave due to SHTF may leave S splattered on your bugout plans.


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## Illini Warrior (Jan 24, 2015)

if you're going to be all gun shy about bugging out and the SHTF not developing severe enough >> probably shouldn't be bugging out at all ...

if you don't have false starts - you aren't interpreting the intel correctly >>> if you wait until the balloon pops >>> it's tooooo late - good chance you'll be in the middle of the Golden Horde wave heading out of town - you want to be ahead of the wave & sitting secure when that balloon goes ....


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

*Gyro:* Great advice. Reminds me of when I was worried about my 15 year old daughter living with her single mother. My ex was dating and my daughter had a boyfriend in the neighborhood.

I knew I could never have a civil conversation with my ex about my concerns and was fretting if I should proceed to put her on birth control without discussion or just cross my fingers and stay out of it.

I was a nervous wreck because if I jump the gun I was telling my daughter to have fun and if not I was perhaps stunting her growth in other life possibilities.

Finally my current wife asked me if it was better to put her on the pill three years too early of two days too late. I called my daughter and made a doctor's appointment immediately.


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## MBoehm (Aug 12, 2020)

Illini Warrior said:


> if you're going to be all gun shy about bugging out and the SHTF not developing severe enough >> probably shouldn't be bugging out at all ...
> 
> if you don't have false starts - you aren't interpreting the intel correctly >>> if you wait until the balloon pops >>> it's tooooo late - good chance you'll be in the middle of the Golden Horde wave heading out of town - you want to be ahead of the wave & sitting secure when that balloon goes ....


Well, yes exactly... which is why I'm asking what are your "go signals" for this kind of thing. Ideally ones that are subtle enough that you can implement the bugout plan before the masses do. "Military units abroad recalled urgently" is a good one, thanks Gyro.


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

The reason I say not to get off the interstate is that military will not be able to lock down the interstate quickly and easily when things begin.
Do whatever you have to in order to get on it and stay on it!

Have plans for escape and then add back-up plans for escape.

P.S. Fill up your gas cans NOW and add fuel stabilizer to it.

Also, if in a car then tie a few sticks of PVC pipe over the car. This should confuse anyone you encounter and make you invisible.


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

*MBoehm:* You are seeking an answer to a question that has no answer.

Such as "How much of your dick should you amputate to give yourself a circumcision?" 
The answer depends solely on how much pain are you willing to accept and only you know that answer. And realize that answer will change every moment every day.

Kids in school? Want the job? Spouse already think you are nuts? Feel like an argument all day on the interstate?

I used to wonder about what if I were in a falling elevator and jumped up just a split second before it crashed on the floor. Idiotic gamble, isn't it?


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## gyro_cfi (Jan 12, 2016)

Illini Warrior said:


> if you're going to be all gun shy about bugging out and the SHTF not developing severe enough >> probably shouldn't be bugging out at all ...
> 
> if you don't have false starts - you aren't interpreting the intel correctly >>> if you wait until the balloon pops >>> it's tooooo late - good chance you'll be in the middle of the Golden Horde wave heading out of town - you want to be ahead of the wave & sitting secure when that balloon goes ....


You said it perfectly! 100%

Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

I also read a book regarding the D-Day invasion. It was a collection of journal entries from folks that were actually on the beach on D-Day.

One entry was different as it was not a soldier's entry but rather the daughter of a family that lived near the beach. Her father was convinced the invasion would occur on his beach and that it must occur on the night of a full moon.

So he dug a slit trench outside, covered it with a roof, built in benches etc. For five months he would clean and stock it with fresh water, food, clothing and blankets.
For five months his family teased him.

On D-Day morning his house went up in flames early on. His family did well.


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## MBoehm (Aug 12, 2020)

jimcosta said:


> Also, if in a car then tie a few sticks of PVC pipe over the car. This should confuse anyone you encounter and make you invisible.


I'm not sure I understand this one. You mean to make my vehicle look more like a utility / construction vehicle?


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## CapitalKane49p (Apr 7, 2020)

Signs for me.

Supply chains chronically interrupted. I.e Fewer and fewer items on shelves. 
Significant rise in crime. 
Run on cash at ATM machines.
Increased police scanner traffic. If you don't have a scanner more sirens than usual are heard on a daily / nightly basis. 
Increased activity of presence of undesirables in your neighborhood. Not being elitist here, but a junkie skid criminal is a junkie skid criminal. Same for douche bag gang bangers. 
Excessive power grid and internet interruptions. Could be a sign of further Unrestricted Warfare campaign to further disrupt Western democracies. 
Noticeable defection of essential workers from the workforce. Bottom line is that if I am a cop, firefighter, EMS there will come a time that I will have to leave my post to secure my family. 

Unfortunately my friend I believe that you will be GOOD sooner that you would like.

Godspeed


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

*MBoehm:* Yes. The intent is to become "invisible" to would be looters (workmen have no Prepper supplies) and Military (as you look like a local contractor doing government work, with a little convincing).


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

jimcosta said:


> *Gyro:* Great advice. Reminds me of when I was worried about my 15 year old daughter living with her single mother. My ex was dating and my daughter had a boyfriend in the neighborhood.
> 
> I knew I could never have a civil conversation with my ex about my concerns and was fretting if I should proceed to put her on birth control without discussion or just cross my fingers and stay out of it.
> 
> ...


That's incredibly sad.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

Sure glad I live at my BO local. One less to worry about.


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## Idwanderer (May 4, 2020)

We haven't a 'points' system like you're hoping to find. Ours is a hard copy plan with a chapter on 'trigger events' that would make you want to bug out. Anyone at home (kids, wife, whoever) could open the binder, turn to the page ie: earthquake and know exactly where tings are they need to gather, and what they need to start doing should you be away at work. The first thing we do is set up a command post at the primary bug in location with a communications link immediately set up. As our group checks in they report information about themselves, whats happening where they are, etc., Some reasons to bugout just do not lend themselves real well to a point system ie: earthquake, EMP, CME etc.. Some are immediate. Too, as in your case (and mine) the calamity may be blocking you from getting to your bugout location which leads you to plan B. Points seem to make too structured unless you've a way to measure some of the more intangible things you may run into. Good post, thanks.


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

*Be extremely watchful between now and the November election.
*
Two major articles appeared this past week that we all need to be aware of.
Both were by reputable reporters.

The first was this article Brace For The Worst Election In US History.

_""This time, it literally won't matter who wins, loses, is selected, or elected. 
The elitists have already made it clear this election will be a contested one that will seal the division they seek in order to conquer us all..."_

The second article is:





.

This group plans to attack the White House for the 50 days running up to the election. We all know what the reaction of the Secret Service will be. Assuredly it will result in planned support rioting in cities around the country, thus pushing the violence out into the streets.

I feel that if this happens the chaos could arrive way before November and the failed election will only make that violence permanent. Their plan is to take down the country.

If you give respect to these articles then my advice is to finish your preps as quickly as possible.


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

In addition to the secret service, there are numerous military installations with plenty of troops relatively close to Washington DC. Nobody! And I mean nobody is going to occupy the Whitehouse except the president. They might advertise they are going attempt this insane attack, but only a complete and total nut job believes they will succeed.

The first article is spot-on. Regardless of who wins, we are in for a wild ride.


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## jimcosta (Jun 11, 2017)

*Chiefster: * I don't think they really intend to "Occupy". I think they want another Kent State incident in which "innocent" people are shot, thus the shooters starting the gasoline explosion.


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## Back Pack Hack (Sep 15, 2016)

MBoehm said:


> Hello preppers,
> 
> My partner and I have spent the last year preparing a property in a remote area that we can use for bail-out purposes when SHTF. It is, however, several hours' drive away from the metro area in which we reside. I am interested in knowing if people have developed some kind of logical, rational framework regarding how to know when to bug out. Since the actual act of bugging out can be disruptive towards one's career/family/friendships etc, it is important to pick just the right moment to know when to pull the trigger. Going up-country too soon can be a significant waste of resources and could cost you your 'day job,' but waiting too long could be even worse.
> 
> ...


You'd need to define those terms first. What constitutes 'widespread', 'skirmishes', 'unchecked violence'? Would the CHAZ/CHOP thing in Seatlle qualify for 'widespread'? If Russia and Great Britain started shooting at each other, why would that mean you need to bug out? Did the derecho that blew through here earlier this week count as a 'disruption of essential services (utilities)' just because the power is out?

If you try to quantify and label 'reasons to bug out' and make a list, your list will be woefully incomplete. You may end up killing yourself by not hittin' the road because what kills you wasn't 'on the list. Personally, yes, I think "you'll know it when you see it" will work just fine.


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

Hello MB,

Born in CA and lived there for many years. I spent the last 16 years of time in CA as a resident of San Francisco and was fortunate to afford a nice condo there in 2011. Shortly after moving into SF I joined the St Francis Yacht Club and bought my first sail boat but it was for racing on the bay. A few years later I got one capable of blue water sailing and finally my current Beneteau bought in Greece and sailed to London then to SF. That has been my bug out vehicle for 6 plus years now and still is.

When I was in SF I wondered about bugging out a few times. I even practiced it. Yes this was actually fun because I loved sailing. I always knew exactly how long it would take me to clear the golden gate for the pacific and my dear wife too. Knowing how long it takes to be considered safe will help you govern when to bug out.

I also learned to elevate ordinance and supplies on board when I got that sad feeling it would be time to go. You can adjust that on the fly if you don't think it's bug out time but think it's getting closer. I did that a lot.



MBoehm said:


> Hello preppers,
> 
> My partner and I have spent the last year preparing a property in a remote area that we can use for bail-out purposes when SHTF. It is, however, several hours' drive away from the metro area in which we reside. I am interested in knowing if people have developed some kind of logical, rational framework regarding how to know when to bug out. Since the actual act of bugging out can be disruptive towards one's career/family/friendships etc, it is important to pick just the right moment to know when to pull the trigger. Going up-country too soon can be a significant waste of resources and could cost you your 'day job,' but waiting too long could be even worse.
> 
> ...


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

We don't live in the city. There will be no news camera here if they a dumb enough to come here. We are not leaving and very likely some of them won't either.
As for the elevator if you could jump up you would still hit the ground with the same force as the elevator.


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## ND_ponyexpress_ (Mar 20, 2016)

I personally feel the interstates would be much easier to shut down then the back-road prairie trails (for those states that still have them).. JMO My brother plans to BO here from Iowa,. if state borders are closed, I told him to get 2-3 county maps of IA and SD in counties he would likely cross into the next state. These maps have much finer detail of the less-traveled roads that I would assume would be the last to get closed.


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

This whole thread gives me great comfort in the knowledge that the people who have to ask "When do I go??" will never make it to where I am.


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## Hemi45 (May 5, 2014)

jimcosta said:


> I recently read Selco's book The Dark Secrets of SHTF Survival: The Brutal Truth About Violence, Death, & Mayhem You Must Know to Survive.
> 
> He was trapped in a war-torn city for one year in Bosnia in 1990. He writes great Prepping articles based on his experiences.
> 
> ...


On a Ten Scale, what would you rate his book? I've read snippets but was never sure if he and the book were legit.


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## MBoehm (Aug 12, 2020)

MountainGirl said:


> This whole thread gives me great comfort in the knowledge that the people who have to ask "When do I go??" will never make it to where I am.


Don't worry, I'm not bugging out to the Selkirk Mountains. I've already got a place figured out.


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