# What SHTF scenario is mostly likely to happen in your opinion?



## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

Just wondering if there is a consensus or trend on likely SHTF causes here. Post what you think could really bring the pain and why.


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## jro1 (Mar 3, 2014)

Second coming for SURE..and the shite that goes along with it before it happens!
But I could see a big financial meltdown in the next year or two!


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

jro1 said:


> Second coming for SURE..and the shite that goes along with it before it happens!
> But I could see a big financial meltdown in the next year or two!


I am thinking financial meltdown, possibly hyperinflation. Could also be the 2nd revolution if these riots and Obama's lawlessness comes home to roost.


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

I am thinking angry ******* will come to kill ex cops. Just a theory.


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## jro1 (Mar 3, 2014)

bigwheel said:


> I am thinking angry ******* will come to kill ex cops. Just a theory.


you're probably not too far off from the truth!


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

A global beer shortage... Don't laugh, it will effect the world as we know it 

Lots of possibilities, most plausible, some realistic... But I vote zombies, just cause I can


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## jro1 (Mar 3, 2014)

Holy shite!, where you been lately?


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

Lol thanks, I am trying to get a list so when I prep I can prep for a broad range of what is commonly believed to be within the realm of possibility. I think I am safe from the Zombie thing (unless you count those who vote for Liberals).


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

I think that the most likely scenario involves a combination of the following:

Economic collapse

EMP

Global war with muslims

Zombies

Obama

Russia

Alien attack upon Earth

Liberals

Global beer shortage. *thanks for the nightmare phen*

And a second helping of zombies for good measure.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

I would discuss my biblical views on whats to come but apparently there are members of this forum that can not tolerate the chance there could be biblical debate


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

Arklatex said:


> I think that the most likely scenario involves a combination of the following:
> 
> Economic collapse
> 
> ...


EMP huh? how about terror cells targeting electrical substations? Same effect without the flash. People can't really be serious about this Zombie nonsense can they?


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I would discuss my biblical views on whats to come but apparently there are members of this forum that can not tolerate the chance there could be biblical debate


4 horse type stuff?


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## jro1 (Mar 3, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I would discuss my biblical views on whats to come but apparently there are members of this forum that can not tolerate the chance there could be biblical debate


just speak your mind, who cares what anybody else thinks!


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

The most likely to happen, happened last summer to me, and because the area relies heavily on above ground electrical infrastructure, it will happen again and again.

A storm rolled in, and over 160,000 homes lost power, 40,000 people still without power 6 days after the storm. 

In my situation, we were 36hrs without power because the downed line was only affecting 4 homes in a community that was generally pretty good. It really pissed me off, all the guys across the street had power, and I had a freezer that was thawing.

A big part of it was we were the only ones complaining, the other 3 homes suffering in silence.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

tinkerhell said:


> The most likely to happen, happened last summer to me, and because the area relies heavily on above ground electrical infrastructure, it will happen again and again.
> 
> A storm rolled in, and over 160,000 homes lost power, 40,000 people still without power 6 days after the storm.
> 
> ...


wow what state was that in?


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

Also, I think that there is a high risk of a new terrorist organization staking out the abundance of handicap parking spots in big box stores. And, the ones that don't get used often enough will be vandalized or have derelict cars abandoned in them.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

CME/EMP

total power grid failure just because of age and BAD weather

Epidemic/pandemic disease

Some combo of volcano/megaquake

Asteroid impact (we're scheduled for one close call in 2026 and then, in 2035... ?)

In any of these cases, I don't see where the economic system will make any impact one way or the other. It will be so gone it won't matter. The worst ones will be the ones where food production fails. Riots will be the lesst of our problems.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> wow what state was that in?


Atlantic Canada. Lots of bedrock around here, so going underground with electrical would involve lots of jack hammers, and explosives. Estimated cost of electric service could rise 400% according the power companies propaganda.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

tinkerhell said:


> Atlantic Canada. Lots of bedrock around here, so going underground with electrical would involve lots of jack hammers, and explosives. Estimated cost of electric service could rise 400% according the power companies propaganda.


That's crazy. With winter storm IRENE a few years ago a similar situation happened here. We were without power for 3 weeks. That is what started me on my prepping journey to learn as much as I can. It was a real eye opener. No gas, supermarkets picked clean, if you didn't have cash on hand you were screwed because ATM's use power lol. It got hairy for a while. I promised myself I would never be in that situation again.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

thepeartree said:


> CME/EMP
> 
> total power grid failure just because of age and BAD weather
> 
> ...


The solar storm of 1859 caused the teletype systems to meltdown. Solar storm of 1859 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
It is always a bit of speculation about what it would do to our modern electronics world because the severity of the next storm is not a known thing. But, one thing for certain, it is not a matter of IF, it is a matter of WHEN.


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## TG (Jul 28, 2014)

Another insane ice storm, same as last year.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

The Hurricane Arthur was down graded to a tropical storm. It was enough to knock down a plethora of trees and tree branches. 

The area also suffer from Hurrican Juan, 

and from a winter storm that was nicknamed white juan. The winter storm brought only 3 feet of snow, a fraction of what Boston just saw, and it was enough for the inlaws to be without power for a week. one week of everyone sleeping in the living room because the fireplace was the only source of heat during the aftermath of a blizzard.


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## A J (Oct 16, 2014)

Arklatex said:


> I think that the most likely scenario involves a combination of the following:
> 
> Economic collapse
> 
> ...


You forgot SuperVolcano exploding in Yellow Stone.

AJ


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

So I am getting regional threats here for the most part. No one thinks a global shutdown is on the way for any reason?

**Edit ** Coronal Mass Ejection not withstanding!


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> That's crazy. With winter storm IRENE a few years ago a similar situation happened here. We were without power for 3 weeks. That is what started me on my prepping journey to learn as much as I can. It was a real eye opener. No gas, supermarkets picked clean, if you didn't have cash on hand you were screwed because ATM's use power lol. It got hairy for a while. I promised myself I would never be in that situation again.


Yes, same here. This was my turning point as well. Although I was headed this direction anyway.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

Severe weather event. They seem to happen with regularity compared to other possibilities.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> So I am getting regional threats here for the most part. No one thinks a global shutdown is on the way for any reason?
> 
> **Edit ** Coronal Mass Ejection not withstanding!


Well, Vladimir Poutine is testing north american airspace with his bombers. Canada's CF18s are scrambling on a monthly basis over this.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

It's going to be a combination of everything all at once. If it's only one thing that happens there will be time and a capability to recover. If more than one thing happens at a particular time, it will take a lot more to recover. 

Either that or an alien invasion?


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## csi-tech (Apr 13, 2013)

I don't subscribe to the Zombie apocalypse theory. I find the probability of the Yellowstone Caldera, EMP, Finacial collapse etc.. improbable at best (in my lifetime anyway). I prepare for extended power outages from things like ice storms and electrical storms as my biggest threat. Localized flooding and tornadic activity as well. I just have a month of food and water set back with ways to purify more water. Plenty of guns and ammo. I also believe there is a small chance of the New Madrid fault releasing it's kinetic energy in my lifetime as well. I still need a quality generator and transfer switch. We already have plenty of back up heat sources and a 400 acre place to drop off in the event of my final conceivable threat: Pandemic. We haven't had a good pandemic since 1919.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

tinkerhell said:


> Well, Vladimir Poutine is testing north american airspace with his bombers. Canada's CF18s are scrambling on a monthly basis over this.


Well thank god for those CF18's


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

Lets not forget the economy. Nothing is changing. The governments solution has always been to print more money and accumulate more debt.

So even if we experience a recovery, is it a lasting recovery, or just a bubble that might cause a few of us to let our guard down?


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## csi-tech (Apr 13, 2013)

James m said:


> It's going to be a combination of everything all at once. If it's only one thing that happens there will be time and a capability to recover. If more than one thing happens at a particular time, it will take a lot more to recover.
> 
> Either that or an alien invasion?


Our government is in collusion with them and has been for some time. No need to worry about that...........um, in my humble opinion.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

check out the freedom munitions ad on your screen. I just realized that the ammo resembles two women and a penis, if you look at the general shape of them.

Coincidence, or conspiracy?


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## A J (Oct 16, 2014)

James m said:


> It's going to be a combination of everything all at once. If it's only one thing that happens there will be time and a capability to recover. If more than one thing happens at a particular time, it will take a lot more to recover.
> 
> Either that or an alien invasion?


If one of the big natural disasters happens (Tidal wave taking out east coastline/Florida Coastline, SuperVolcano in YellowStone, CME etc.), governments will take advantage of it to expand/challenge US and it will become a worldwide event.

AJ


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

A J said:


> If one of the big natural disasters happens (Tidal wave taking out east coastline/Florida Coastline, SuperVolcano in YellowStone, CME etc.), governments will take advantage of it to expand/challenge US and it will become a worldwide event.
> 
> AJ


Also, Governments will take advantage of them to test the waters and take advantage of their own people. Firearms were collected in Katrina, and firearms were collected in High River, Alberta.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

collected? By Whom and for what reason? I never heard of that during Katrina.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> So I am getting regional threats here for the most part. No one thinks a global shutdown is on the way for any reason?
> 
> **Edit ** Coronal Mass Ejection not withstanding!


Good question, but I lack any data on the state of Europe's power grid. On the other hand, if you consider North America to be "regional", then yeah. Any EMP
threat is going to effect only the hemisphere facing the sun at the moment of impact.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> collected? By Whom and for what reason? I never heard of that during Katrina.


https://www.google.ca/search?q=yout....16365j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

A J said:


> If one of the big natural disasters happens (Tidal wave taking out east coastline/Florida Coastline, SuperVolcano in YellowStone, CME etc.), governments will take advantage of it to expand/challenge US and it will become a worldwide event.
> 
> AJ


Don't forget a tsunami on the west coast. I know that they have warning nets set up and an evacuation road network, but if the San Andreas lets go all up and down the coast, there won't be anywhere to hide.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

during the flooding in and near Calgary Alberta two summers ago

FULL DOCUMENTARY - Broken Trust: Gun Grab at High River : Prime time : SunNews Video Gallery

I know this is a Canadian incident but it is close to home, very good documentary that you can listen to while doing other things on the computer.


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## RNprepper (Apr 5, 2014)

1) Attack on the power grid - either EMP or by computer hacking. I think taking down the power grid would basically immobilize the U.S. and immediately shift power to China, Russia, or a combination of their allies. Our system is way too fragile, and if an attack was successful in winter, a large portion of the population would be done for. Then again, an X-10 CME from the sun (act of God) could do the same thing. Experts say not a matter of if but when.

2) Pandemic influenza of a highly virulent strain such as the avian flu. It that ever mutates to human-human transmission, half the world will be dead in a few months. Again, the experts say not a matter of if but when. We are overdue.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

Screw that noise... how can they force you out of your home and take your guns!


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## Hemi45 (May 5, 2014)

Or nothing happens and we all die of old age. That's where I'd stack my chips! That isn't to say that I don't prepare for other possibilities but I don't think 'the end is near.'


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## TG (Jul 28, 2014)

Hemi45 said:


> Or nothing happens and we all die of old age. That's where I'd stack my chips! That isn't to say that I don't prepare for other possibilities but I don't think 'the end is near.'


My thoughts exactly


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

ultimately, we are responsible for our own food, shelter, health, and welfare. I think there is a personal satisfaction in doing this, and not relying on others any more than we have to.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

....and with this, we don't become anarchists, we also learn a greater appreciation for the need to survive as a community.


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

Yes..Muslims and liberals might get offended. Good point


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> So I am getting regional threats here for the most part. No one thinks a global shutdown is on the way for any reason?
> 
> **Edit ** Coronal Mass Ejection not withstanding!


You asked most likely, not most likely global event.


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## ntxwheels (Oct 25, 2014)

I don't don't set around wondering what 'it' might be. If it's going to happen, bring it on and let's get it over with.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

You will all know the end is near when a majority agree that shtf is preferable to things continuing the way they are. At that point, people will stop trying to keep day to day life going and things will fall apart at the first excuse.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

By facing what could happen we are not preaching gloom and doom we are facing facts. What is happening now in some of our cities has happened before each time it gets a bit more violent. We have created a class of people dependent on hand outs from the government. Money taken from others and freely given away . That is Not the same as helping people in need . It is creating a political force that can not survive without your hand outs. When it was a small percentage of people we could deal with it. We just kept buying them off. Every few years we tossed another bone to them and they went back to their rooms for awhile. Now we have increased their numbers to about 40% of our society.
This group is always the victim, they are in a constant state of outrage and are easily fired up . Society can not keep buying the peace . Our current Administration set out to break the economy to bring America to it's knees and force everyone on the government dependence . Problem is the cash to buy peace comes from those that get up everyday and go to work. The kind of people the harder you kick them the more they try to get a head. The real back bone of our country is losing.
Economic issues and political agenda will fuel social unrest . Those like Obama think they can take it to the edge and control it emerging as hero's. They are mistaken .
Social unrest can seriously fuel more economic problems. Once the burring starts it takes on a life all it's own. Soon not even the most committed know why they are burning anymore. The anger and rage just fuels more. We just saw how a government in fear of public opinion allowed a city to burn rather than take action. We will see more of it.
In an effort to cool things down and maintain control. Those like Holder and Obama will make both working class white and black Americans the bad guy. You are poor because they took it from you will be the chant. They did not earn it they stole it from you. They will also work to create a third boggyman , the immigrants. They will play them as a trump card extending their power. If America does not wake up to this our cities will burn.
This has happened before it will happen again. The question is how far will it go. 
As a country we can weather any storm as long as the majority of us are willing to act and carry those that will not. The number of us willing to stand for what is right is deceasing fast, we are not far from no longer having the numbers to hold this system up. Make no mistake about this. This is a fight Obama and those like him want.
Do your home work those before him those that stands with him now have been working towards this goal for a long time. Are you sure we can stop it?
Can we turn this around and bring most of that 40% around. There will always be some that can not keep up, those that for many reasons can not function as the rest of society does. We are required as Humans and by God to help and provide for them. It is the right thing to do. However we can not survive 40% of society being forced to join those numbers by an agenda that has been working it's plan for over 60 years.
Each day I pray it never come to this , Work to turn it around. We are losing this fight . Hide your head in sand if you wish . I refuse too. 18 trillion and climbing .
All part of the plan and few even care the checks are no good . Like one man said at Ferguson Burn this B down. Obama and his kind have been saying that for a long time and now have the matches out. 
Shorter term natural disasters are something we must prepare for but there is a larger storm coming. The chant for social justice is not about Justice but a call to war.


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

jro1 said:


> Holy shite!, where you been lately?


Becoming a work zombie with bad fires atm

But a more serious list

I have been directly affected by...

Unemployment
Undrinkable tap water
Multiple survare storms

Indirectly affected
2 major floods

Now with having felt those effects, what do you do, nothing?? Or prepare for the worse??

I chose to prepare, and chose to for a long time, unemployment doesn't affect me and mine like it once did, storms are now just some excitement, and watching the news and saying "that won't be us" and mean it, feels good....

Now we can pull doomsday scenarios from everywhere, and be doom and gloom, but I prefer zombie apoc as my focus as its not so gloomy, and is the least likely to happen, also, if your prepared for zombies your prepared for anything


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Smitty901 said:


> By facing what could happen we are not preaching gloom and doom we are facing facts. What is happening now in some of our cities has happened before each time it gets a bit more violent. We have created a class of people dependent on hand outs from the government. Money taken from others and freely given away . That is Not the same as helping people in need . It is creating a political force that can not survive without your hand outs. When it was a small percentage of people we could deal with it. We just kept buying them off. Every few years we tossed another bone to them and they went back to their rooms for awhile. Now we have increased their numbers to about 40% of our society.
> This group is always the victim, they are in a constant state of outrage and are easily fired up . Society can not keep buying the peace . Our current Administration set out to break the economy to bring America to it's knees and force everyone on the government dependence . Problem is the cash to buy peace comes from those that get up everyday and go to work. The kind of people the harder you kick them the more they try to get a head. The real back bone of our country is losing.
> Economic issues and political agenda will fuel social unrest . Those like Obama think they can take it to the edge and control it emerging as hero's. They are mistaken .
> Social unrest can seriously fuel more economic problems. Once the burring starts it takes on a life all it's own. Soon not even the most committed know why they are burning anymore. The anger and rage just fuels more. We just saw how a government in fear of public opinion allowed a city to burn rather than take action. We will see more of it.
> ...


YES to what Smitty said ^^^


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Smitty901,

http://www.prepperforums.net/forum/ufo-s-zombies-2012-aliens-mayan-end-world-apocalypse/12530-what-shtf-scenario-mostly-likely-happen-your-opinion-6.html#post223270

That is so well written you should post it on some media website or editorial.

Good job!


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

I am beginning to think that it will not be a single event, but a "perfect storm" type of multiple events. Economic collapse which fans the flames of social and racial unrest, which emboldens terrorists and terrorists nations to employ weaponized bacteriological agents and EMP devices, which some nations may respond to by limited use of nuclear weapons.....mass hysteria, dogs and cats.......


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Hemi45 said:


> Or nothing happens and we all die of old age. That's where I'd stack my chips! That isn't to say that I don't prepare for other possibilities but I don't think 'the end is near.'


And just what is the "end"? If you mean that all life is wiped out, how do you prepare for that? If you mean a "dark ages" event, if it happened before, why not again? Rome fell, Egypt fell, the Greeks society fell, Babylon fell, the Black Plaque wiped out nearly 1/2 of Europe. Things got very hard for a very long time, but people survived. If you think that things are more or less going to continue as they are now, I hope you are right, but I think that you are wrong.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

While a limited or all out nuclear exchange between the major players and the smaller ones is possible. I believe a terrorist sponsored attack is the most likely. Tactically speaking it makes sense. Our power grid is vulnerable as everyone knows. Subject to hacking or strategic strikes at key portions of the grid. Most people in this country would have no idea how to cope without power. The economy, already teetering, would be pushed over the edge. I believe that terror groups, if they don't already have this capability, will shortly, and I have no doubt in my mind that they would use them. 

The interesting question to me at this point would be our governments reaction and military response. Also, how would the rest of the world respond. Friends would help.....Maybe......Russia and China? Would they see an opportunity thinking our military and nuclear capability is compromised? The terror groups have nothing to loose and everything to gain. Is it this simple? Maybe.....maybe not.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Notsoyoung said:


> I am beginning to think that it will not be a single event, but a "perfect storm" type of multiple events. Economic collapse which fans the flames of social and racial unrest, which emboldens terrorists and terrorists nations to employ weaponized bacteriological agents and EMP devices, which some nations may respond to by limited use of nuclear weapons.....mass hysteria, dogs and cats.......


Considering the news in recent weeks, the presence of ISIS on our southern border, an attack on the power grid, cyber attack on the Fed, would remove the need for nukes.
A "perfect storm" is plausible for our enemies ... and within their reach.


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## MI.oldguy (Apr 18, 2013)

Two words,adverse weather.

Insane snow storms,floods,hurricanes,earthquakes,etc.all which may do harm to our infrastructures,lives and electrical grid.

Just look around,its happening already.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

MI.oldguy said:


> Two words,adverse weather.
> 
> Insane snow storms,floods,hurricanes,earthquakes,etc.all which may do harm to our infrastructures,lives and electrical grid.
> 
> Just look around,its happening already.


Last winter we took a beating in S.E. meatchicken. Not ever as bad as you yoopers get but it was over the top for the bottom of the state. This summer was so damn wet it never dried up It was the wettest July and August Ive seen in my years here on this rock.


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

One of the most dangerous situations that no one seems to pay attention to is the extreme hatred between India and Pakistan. Either one could launch a nuclear strike at any moment. Talk about SHTF.


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## Hemi45 (May 5, 2014)

DerBiermeister said:


> One of the most dangerous situations that no one seems to pay attention to is the extreme hatred between India and Pakistan. Either one could launch a nuclear strike at any moment. Talk about SHTF.


I got five bucks on India


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## MI.oldguy (Apr 18, 2013)

hawgrider said:


> Last winter we took a beating in S.E. meatchicken. Not ever as bad as you yoopers get but it was over the top for the bottom of the state. This summer was so damn wet it never dried up It was the wettest July and August Ive seen in my years here on this rock.


May be worse this winter.here and everywhere.already set a record for snow UP here.54 inches before winter in Marquette county.we really dont get a hell of a lot of snow compared to the other counties because the Porkies and Hurons kind of sheild us.we really get blasted by lake effect when the wind is from due north.

Deer hunt really slow,they are not in the normal yards where they are supposed to be.I am thinking they are bewildered this early due to snow covering all the forage.I have been seeing bark stripped up really high and hoof prints around all the trees.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

MI.oldguy said:


> May be worse this winter.here and everywhere.already set a record for snow UP here.54 inches before winter in Marquette county.we really dont get a hell of a lot of snow compared to the other counties because the Porkies and Hurons kind of sheild us.we really get blasted by lake effect when the wind is from due north.
> 
> Deer hunt really slow,they are not in the normal yards where they are supposed to be.I am thinking they are bewildered this early due to snow covering all the forage.I have been seeing bark stripped up really high and hoof prints around all the trees.


Wow seems awful early for eating bark off the tree's. If thats the case I would expect a high winter kill as the deer probably didn't recover the weight loss from the rut.


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

Obama's next group of 5 million illegals.


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

I think the shtf event that will happen will be somthing we never expect to cause it it wont be a thunderbolt but and ignored whisper.


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## MI.oldguy (Apr 18, 2013)

hawgrider said:


> Wow seems awful early for eating bark off the tree's. If thats the case I would expect a high winter kill as the deer probably didn't recover the weight loss from the rut.


Alot didnt make it last year,saw a lot of fawns this spring and summer.I hope they make it.DNR said you can feed this year,just get a feeding permit.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

MI.oldguy said:


> Alot didnt make it last year,saw a lot of fawns this spring and summer.I hope they make it.DNR said you can feed this year,just get a feeding permit.


About time they allow yard feeding again the whole TB thing was overblown!


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Maine-Marine said:


> I would discuss my biblical views on whats to come but apparently there are members of this forum that can not tolerate the chance there could be biblical debate


Well, nonetheless, it will seem pretty biblical. 1000's of scientists can't be wrong...


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## Daddy O (Jan 20, 2014)

Arklatex said:


> I think that the most likely scenario involves a combination of the following:
> 
> Economic collapse
> 
> ...


Don't even kid about the beer shortage. Go knock on some wood, or knock with some wood, throw salt over your shoulder to undo that shite. 

Unfortunately one of the most likely scenarios is not one will survive: solar plasma discharge. We saw one about 3 months ago that would have erased us if it had been aimed our way. We have 6 more years of high solar activity driving global warming, then in 2020 it drops off, possibly leaving us in an ice age. If we can make it 6 more years then we mostly have survivable stuff to fear.

But if china overtakes us any more our EOW could just be an economic collapse. I think I'd rather be snuffed out than seeing the USA on its knees.


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## Daddy O (Jan 20, 2014)

The solar activity stuff came from the farmers almanac. Isn't that the coolest bathroom book? Every prepper should have one on their shelf.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

Daddy O said:


> Don't even kid about the beer shortage. Go knock on some wood, or knock with some wood, throw salt over your shoulder to undo that shite.
> 
> Unfortunately one of the most likely scenarios is not one will survive: solar plasma discharge. We saw one about 3 months ago that would have erased us if it had been aimed our way. We have 6 more years of high solar activity driving global warming, then in 2020 it drops off, possibly leaving us in an ice age. If we can make it 6 more years then we mostly have survivable stuff to fear.
> 
> But if china overtakes us any more our EOW could just be an economic collapse. I think I'd rather be snuffed out than seeing the USA on its knees.


A major CME hitting earth is only a matter of time. We will be hit, could be tomorrow or a hundred years from now. But it will happen eventually. I'm nowhere near an expert on this topic but I don't think our infrastructure could handle it.

Thoughts?


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Daddy O said:


> The solar activity stuff came from the farmers almanac. Isn't that the coolest bathroom book? Every prepper should have one on their shelf.


My grandparents depended on the farmers almanac every year for the growing season and for what to expect for the up coming winter. Some call it fake but I gotta tell ya its as accurate as the weather guessers with all there high tech equipment.

"Don't need a weatherman to tell which way the wind blows" Dylan


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Notsoyoung said:


> I am beginning to think that it will not be a single event, but a "perfect storm" type of multiple events. Economic collapse which fans the flames of social and racial unrest, which emboldens terrorists and terrorists nations to employ weaponized bacteriological agents and EMP devices, which some nations may respond to by limited use of nuclear weapons.....mass hysteria, dogs and cats.......


Exactly, but what triggers the economic collapse??

But I like your line of thought, it will be event A, triggers event B that triggers S H T F events that is worse case


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

DerBiermeister said:


> One of the most dangerous situations that no one seems to pay attention to is the extreme hatred between India and Pakistan. Either one could launch a nuclear strike at any moment. Talk about SHTF.


We don't discuss this one often as the fall out is likely restricted to Asia...

But think about it as a cold war like the USA had in the 1960s... The scariest part to the equation is the location and nature of Afghanistan, and the lack of security of Pakistani nuclear weapons


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

pheniox17 said:


> We don't discuss this one often as the fall out is likely restricted to Asia...
> 
> But think about it as a cold war like the USA had in the 1960s... The scariest part to the equation is the location and nature of Afghanistan, and the lack of security of Pakistani nuclear weapons


I understand that you have a front row seat for that fight, but to us in the states, it doesn't seem like a shtf trigger. Here's a couple things that would be worse-

Global tomato crop failure- leading to twin disasters: no pizza and no ketchup, so no fries or burgers.


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

thepeartree said:


> I understand that you have a front row seat for that fight, but to us in the states, it doesn't seem like a shtf trigger. Here's a couple things that would be worse-
> 
> Global tomato crop failure- leading to twin disasters: no pizza and no ketchup, so no fries or burgers.


Yeah kinda a event that will create a awesome show but no bite, I'm too far, the potential of nuclear weapons been "stollen" from Pakistan is everyone's problem and a much worse situation than 2 emerging supper powers dukeing it out


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

Government over reach, financial collapse, trying to install martial law. The heathens starting mass riots.


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

rjd25 said:


> collected? By Whom and for what reason? I never heard of that during Katrina.


I have heard that several times, including from an Army buddy who said that it happened to his parents.

Read this article: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Critic...ane_Katrina#Confiscation_of_civilian_firearms

The Police Supervisor (I guess that is the same as a Police Commissioner) ordered the confiscation of all firearms except those held by Law Enforcement and National Guard. They entered people's homes without warrants, confiscated their firearms, and if the owner resisted they were arrested. Strangely enough, it sounds like most of the homes that they invaded were owned by women, many of whom were middle-aged or older. What a bunch of brave bullies. By the way, many of the home owners decided to abandon their homes afterwards since they no longer had the means to defend themselves from the criminals. I will never go to New Orleans.


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## tango (Apr 12, 2013)

Hurricane season is over-- so--
Societal collapse, caused by any number of things.
Financial collapse, caused by a number of things.
EMP

Anything caused by China--- they are the Gorilla in the room!


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Katrina Gun Confiscation:





















These are just a few. There are a bunch of these.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Read the head lines it is already happening.
NSA
DHS
IRS Take over of the education system
Obama reducing our military to a social program
Holder and Obama's attack on the justice system and Constitution
Now they are making their move on local LE 
Seeing a pattern yet?


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## sparkyprep (Jul 5, 2013)

Depending on where you are, the most likely SHTF scenario is a natural disaster. I live in South Florida, so my most likely scenario, is a hurricane. I know this, because I've already lived it, a few times. Hurricanes Frances and Gene double whammy us, back to back. We were without power, gasoline, stores of any kind for 32 days. Yes, it's short term, but without proper perpetration, it sucks, big time.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

I've been through a bunch of Hurricanes and I don't even live in FL, though I did have to evacuate from the Keys when on vacation once. The last one I was in was Sandy.


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## Stick (Sep 29, 2014)

tinkerhell said:


> The most likely to happen, happened last summer to me, and because the area relies heavily on above ground electrical infrastructure, it will happen again and again.
> 
> A storm rolled in, and over 160,000 homes lost power, 40,000 people still without power 6 days after the storm.
> 
> ...


I've been without power nearly three years now. One adapts. No big deal. And no bills from TPC.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

Everybody ignores one of the worst disasters I can imagine - no CHOCOLATE!


Now in a more practical vein, there is something that has worried me a lot and I don't see much of any discussion on the subject - drugs in the post shtf world. And that brings up another aspect: whether we expect The SHTF to be worldwide or confined to the US. If it's just our country, there is the possibilty of bringing prescription stuff in from north or south. Or, considering the distribution issues, south AND north. But will they? Will other countries bother to distribute to the US when there won't be any chance of being paid in a 'hard' currency?

At the least, there will be someone who will decide to make big bucks running drugs in, but there will be a lot of corpses who wish he was quicker. We all know how difficult it will be to stockpile scrips, but no-one has yet come up with any great ideas on this.

I hope that we keep this topic fresh as we go forward. You never know when someone new may come up with the real answer.


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

pheniox17 said:


> We don't discuss this one often as the fall out is likely restricted to Asia...
> 
> But think about it as a cold war like the USA had in the 1960s... The scariest part to the equation is the location and nature of Afghanistan, and the lack of security of Pakistani nuclear weapons


What worries me the most about an India/Pakistani nuclear confrontation is not either of those two countries, but the ones that support them. For instance, most all of the middle eastern countries (Iran, Syria, Saudia Arabia, Lebanon, Eygpt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain) AND China are big supporters of Pakistan. If India were to retaliate against a Pakistan nuclear strike, China or Iran would probably send some of their nukes to India. That alone could trigger WWIII.


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## 7515 (Aug 31, 2014)

EMP
Financial collapse
Regional crop failure


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

thepeartree said:


> Everybody ignores one of the worst disasters I can imagine - no CHOCOLATE!
> 
> Now in a more practical vein, there is something that has worried me a lot and I don't see much of any discussion on the subject - drugs in the post shtf world. And that brings up another aspect: whether we expect The SHTF to be worldwide or confined to the US. If it's just our country, there is the possibilty of bringing prescription stuff in from north or south. Or, considering the distribution issues, south AND north. But will they? Will other countries bother to distribute to the US when there won't be any chance of being paid in a 'hard' currency?
> 
> ...


We have been warned of a global chocolate shortage, the 2 largest exporting areas of cocoa, 1 has been hit with major natural disasters, the other is Ebola


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

DerBiermeister said:


> What worries me the most about an India/Pakistani nuclear confrontation is not either of those two countries, but the ones that support them. For instance, most all of the middle eastern countries (Iran, Syria, Saudia Arabia, Lebanon, Eygpt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain) AND China are big supporters of Pakistan. If India were to retaliate against a Pakistan nuclear strike, China or Iran would probably send some of their nukes to India. That alone could trigger WWIII.


The us dod has reserved India as its primary battle field if China expands through Asia.... (India is the only country that can match population, but its typical of the dod not to look at population Democratic)

So some thoughts on this topic, pak and India engage in nuke war, backed as you say (and plausible) India is turned to a wasteland...

China uses the fall out to take holdings in Asia and move into the middle east (need land for relocation, nuke fall out and such)

There is no real stopping point left outside the sea we can use against China, but if (fantasy) China can control the oil ports in the middle east, she will almost have us by the balls (yes it only accounts for a small % of western oil now... But food for thought)

All it takes is a stray bomb into India from Pakistani air space... Very scary thought.....


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Once the nukes start flying all bets are off . The War game board goes blank and it starts all over. China has nukes they have numbers but we can hit them and they still can not stop us. 
I am more concerned with one of the middle Eastern countries using some form of a nuke maybe against Israel . The one thing stopping that is the area is so small and they want the land.


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## warrior4 (Oct 16, 2013)

The most likely is still a small scale SHTF regional event probably caused by some form of natural disaster. Those tend to happen every 1-3 years or so. Katrina, Sandy major earthquake, snowstorm, etc. Right now that's what I'm focusing my prepping on as it does happen and as other have said if you don't prep for it and get hit, it can be very bad. I also don't really have the resources right now to do much more than that. Future plans are still in development, but for right now I'm prepping for what has been proven to be a likely SHTF event.


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## SquirrelBait (Jun 6, 2014)

Tomorrow starting 0600 HRS CST, Central Minnesota is forecast to get hit with an ice storm. Sooooo... Slick sidewalks? Power outages? 

Bring it.


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## drackore (Oct 18, 2013)

Lately I've been thinking a race war turning into a 2nd Amendment war turning into a right vs left war. The way things are going with blacks making martyrs out of criminals that died resisting/attacking cops and whites getting sick of their protest/rioting shit and no attention ever made towards black on black or black on white crimes - I see it coming to a head soon. How that is handled will determine just how far it goes. With the current President, I see it being handled very poorly.


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## SquirrelBait (Jun 6, 2014)

Danm said:


> I think the shtf event that will happen will be somthing we never expect to cause it it wont be a thunderbolt but and ignored whisper.


A "Black swan event"?


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## SquirrelBait (Jun 6, 2014)

drackore said:


> Lately I've been thinking a race war turning into a 2nd Amendment war turning into a right vs left war. The way things are going with blacks making martyrs out of criminals that died resisting/attacking cops and whites getting sick of their protest/rioting shit and no attention ever made towards black on black or black on white crimes - I see it coming to a head soon. How that is handled will determine just how far it goes. With the current President, I see it being handled very poorly.


The Bosnians in Bevo are getting P!ssed at the thugs that beat up several Bosnians and murdered one.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

My most likely "total disaster" scenario is for America to slip into a gradual slide into oblivion. I am not too worried about anything fast and dramatic. We pull together and stand together when those events happen. But we are terribly susceptible to anything that is gradual. Witness Obama.

For the Americans on the site, my best advice is to work towards totally spitting yourself out of the system. Understanding Smitty's tag line is the only solution to our situation.



> "There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws."
> -Ayn Rand-


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

DerBiermeister said:


> What worries me the most about an India/Pakistani nuclear confrontation is not either of those two countries, but the ones that support them. For instance, most all of the middle eastern countries (Iran, Syria, Saudia Arabia, Lebanon, Eygpt, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain) AND China are big supporters of Pakistan. If India were to retaliate against a Pakistan nuclear strike, China or Iran would probably send some of their nukes to India. That alone could trigger WWIII.


 the U.S. attacking the syrian goverment directly will cause ww3 assad has mutual aggresion treaties with russia china and iran and those countries have defense treaties with other countries wouldnt be pretty see history Rome vs Germania Pax romna vs aremtius.


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## MisterX (Dec 7, 2014)

Well where I am right now (Bosnia), We're most likely gonna see another war in the next decade or so, atleast I think so. Our unemployment rate is around 30%, the people still don't like eachother from the war in the 90's, and it's not getting any better. Other than that, I think WW3 isn't too far off with all these Middle East countries causing problems.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

Danm said:


> the U.S. attacking the syrian goverment directly will cause ww3 assad has mutual aggresion treaties with russia china and iran and those countries have defense treaties with other countries wouldnt be pretty see history Rome vs Germania Pax romna vs aremtius.


You really think that someone is going to leave the city gates unlocked and Syria is going to overrun the US?


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## Murphy (Oct 9, 2014)

SHTF Scenario?

Financial collapse

Civil war-- Race, Religion, Government, Losing Constitutional Rights, Etc...

I really believe the SHTF scenario will be our own doing


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

thepeartree said:


> You really think that someone is going to leave the city gates unlocked and Syria is going to overrun the US?


Nope i think we are a very Decadent country who has its hands in to many pots and one of them is going to be filled with bee's


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## MikeyPrepper (Nov 29, 2012)

I think for the east coast of the united states it will be a Natural Disaster. Hurricanes are my guess... im in NJ and Irene and Sandy kicked our ass


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

1,000 words.....


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## troyp47000 (Nov 13, 2013)

Economic collapse of some kind or power grid get taken out. Like the whole country. 
Either one will start the domino effect. The loss of power being the worst of the two in my opinion, at least in felt effect right away.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

I do recall that before you are issued a visa or papers to enter the united states. You were required to list family members already in the country and list contacts. Along with employment opportunities. Or a college. Oh yes that's right. That's only if you want to enter legally.

Yes. And if you are an American citizen you have to show you are useful or have a desirable skill set in order to live or work in New Zealand or some other countries.


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## oldgrouch (Jul 11, 2014)

Unless you count the New Black Panthers as zombies I think we are safe from the undead. In order, I go with the following: collapse of dollar, WW III, President Fubar makes himself president for life after Black Swan race war --------- do I sound paranoid??


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## tango (Apr 12, 2013)

The way Obama & company are going, it is possible some serious civil unrest will occur.
That may or may not cause some kind of financial mess.
Keep you eyes open and pay attention---


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

I try to stay away from the most likely line of thinking. Any number of things could or might happen. 

If I were to focus on civil unrest as being the most likely scenario, then there is a good chance my preps would reflect that focus. What happens if it isn't civil unrest but a winter storm of epic proportions? Maybe I freeze to death because I did not fully take into account that any number of other disasters could have just as easily occurred. 

My theory is that one disaster leads to anther, degrade the environment you eventually have civil unrest. The reverse is equally true civil unrest eventually degrades the environment. So in a large scale disaster you will see both, it is just a matter of which one come first.


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

I'd suspect viral warfare. Below is the preface to something I've been jotting down the last 2 years and shows how it could be a realistic threat.

*"The government said it was started by a bunch of Muslim fanatics; not Al-Qaida but a group related to Al-Qaida in one of those states who broke away from the Soviet Union during the 1990's. It seem that they had quietly gotten the funding from wealthy nutcases in the Arab world (people like Bin-Laden, may he burn ) who weren't quite right in the head. They figured that if "true believers" went to paradise then it wasn't wrong if a few hundred million Muslims got an express ticket to paradise if that was the price to be paid for killing a few billion "non-believers"; you know, Christians, Hindus (like Gandhi), even atheists qualified as non-believers in their book. Basically they really believed in the saying; kill them all, let God sort them out."*


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Blaming people too stupid to run their own oil business for gmo warfare is too far fetched. They have the brains and technology to poison a well.
There are only really a dozen candidates for anything advanced really at all. Of the ones that come to mind, maybe half have sufficiency in big game arena, but at least 3 or 4 have histories of strategic poxation ; )
Obola was mass spread and made more available than welfare or they wouldn't have it either. Since we have not heard much since the first claim, I would bet money they lost or dumped their "samples" because the (haha) mistakes of nature haven't been hooting about it nonstop.
But yeah....a credible culprit

By the "World war z" picture I mean plain human disaster. When detroit gets hungry. When la runs out of water - and it becomes more obvious the shortage is man made. When anything happens and you can put 1/2 million people in camps - and that only leaves 312 1/2 million to go.
I don't even think you need a bomb here. Just say so on tv and turn the lights off....


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## MikeyPrepper (Nov 29, 2012)

Financial collapse is my guess were trillions in debt!!


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## CrossbowJoe (Dec 21, 2014)

MikeyPrepper said:


> Financial collapse is my guess were trillions in debt!!


Yes, that's my first scenario as well. Next would be some form of EMP event. That could be man made or natural(nuke blast, asteroid/comet, CME).
In the event of it being EMP on a large scale, you had better hope you're already on your BOL. Otherwise getting there may be a problem. :violent:


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## shootbrownelk (Jul 9, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> Screw that noise... how can they force you out of your home and take your guns!


 By force and overwhelming numbers, would be my guess.


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## knfmn1 (Dec 2, 2014)

CrossbowJoe said:


> Yes, that's my first scenario as well. Next would be some form of EMP event. That could be man made or natural(nuke blast, asteroid/comet, CME).
> In the event of it being EMP on a large scale, you had better hope you're already on your BOL. Otherwise getting there may be a problem. :violent:


I'm expecting financial collapse as well and prepping for EMP.


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## Horrorshow (Aug 12, 2014)

Well, this is a bit long but seems like a good spot for it. I wrote this up for my group when we were trying to settle on the best area to live in should SHTF.

Apocalypse Scenarios - Likelihood of Apocalypse - Esquire

Odds of events happening

Global Warming / Climate Change / New Ice Age
70% chance in next 50 years
Global Warming Effects Map - Effects of Global Warming

- Action: Think about where you want to live. What would be the effect if the averge temperature went up 10 degrees? If it dropped 10? Longer hotter summer with less water, or longer colder winter with more snow/rain?

- Thoughts: Realistically, whether you believe global warming is man-made or not, it is happening (for the record, I think it's a natural cycle of the earth). The effects would be two-fold: first, sea-levels will rise (which is happening, i.e. Venice) and temperatures will get wacky. The best situation is to be in a place more than 100 miles from an ocean, with plenty of rain and no extreme temperatures. If the effect in 50 years is extreme temperature shifts in both directions (i.e. colder winters and hotter summers) then living in a place in a line from Nevada/Colorado/Kentucky would be best. If the effect is strictly higher temperatures year round, then the northern states would be best, Montana/Minnesota/Michigan/Maine.

Superquake
Odds of a 10+ Earthquake in the next 50 years: 80%
Seismic Hazard Maps and Data

Areas most likely to be at risk: West Virginia, Entire Pacific coast, within 100 miles of far SE Missouri, Hawaii, Alaska

- Thoughts: To me this risk is in the nature of luck. There's no real way to plan for this other than not live where there's ANY risk. And in the US that would be only South Texas, Florida, North Dakota, Minnesota, Michigan

Super Volcano
20% chance in next 50 years

Areas of risk: Entire West Coast and Nevada

- Thoughts: Risk is very low as it's the chance WORLDWIDE. Any effects from a Volcano in Indonesia will pretty much affect the entire US equally. Since the West coast has several risks, to me it would just be another nail in the coffin of living in those states.

Global Pandemic
Odds of happening in the next 50 years: 100%

What Are the Chances of a Devastating Pandemic Occurring in the Next 50 Years? | Quora
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/11/opinion/sunday/the-rise-of-antibiotic-resistance.html?_r=0

Areas of Risk: Any place with people. The more urban the higher the risk.

- Thoughts: This is guaranteed to happen. We've always been at risk from viral pandemics, which have been rising sharply in the last few years thanks to the anti-vaxxers. Measles, Mumps, Pertussis, Rubella, etc all on the rise. Worse, there have been increasing cases of new viral strains, such as MERS. In my opinion the bigger risk is actually bacterial plagues. An increasing number of bacterial infections are becoming resistant to more and more antibiotics. You've heard of MRSA (Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). Now there's VRSA (Vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus). The more cases of transmissable, untreatable infections the greater the risk, which rises every day.

Social and Economic Collapse
Odds of happening in the next 50 years: 90%

Robert Wiedemer: 100% Fake Economic Recovery | Greg Hunter?s USAWatchdog
United States Government Debt to GDP | 1940-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar
The National Debt Cannot Be Paid Off | Zero Hedge
5 facts about the national debt: What you should know | Pew Research Center

Areas of Risk: All

- Thoughts: I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow, or next year. But I don't think 20 years is unrealistic. If you look at national debt to GDP you'll see that in 2013 we passed solvency. In simple terms, if the economy was a family making $100,000 a year, that family now owes $101,530 on its credit cards. How long before that family is bankrupt? Because our family, the United States, has no intention of stopping buying things on our credit cards. And the 'fix' is one of four things:

1. Austerity. Problem is there is no place to make the kinds of cuts required to pay off more than the interest. And even those cuts would be in Social Security/Medicare. If we doubled taxes on everyone, and cut all spending by 50% for 5 years, this would work. We will never do this until it's too late.

2. Inflation. Possible. Problem is the amount of inflation needed to fix it would be likely to kick off an 'inflation death spiral', i.e. hyperinflation. Even in the best case, 20% inflation would mean that if you had $100, on one year it would buy the same things as you could buy with $80. Then $60. Then $40. How soon before it gets a little hungry at your house?

3. Increase GDP. This can't happen. We've offshored almost all of our industry as part of doubling down on the world economy. We fought off the Great Recession by printing money and lowering the bank rate to zero, dropping our interest payments on our debt to 2.4%. Problem is there's nothing below zero.

4. Let it ride. Option 1 or 2, enacted now, might save us. But they won't happen. No politician will vote for any such measure as it is political suicide. So we'll continue to take 'payday loans'. And at some point in the next 20 years the house of cards will fall down and we'll have to do steps 1 and 2, but in such draconian fashion that it would take another 10 years just to begin a recovery. And that's completely ignoring the social cost of no social security, double/triple taxes, no defense, no road maintenance, etc etc.


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## mcangus (Jun 3, 2014)

MikeyPrepper said:


> Financial collapse is my guess were trillions in debt!!


I think no prepper who really understands the financial situation can doubt that a financial collapse can happen. It is really unavoidable almost. But here is the thing, somehow we are able to keep pushing the limit and drive up the debt even more. If we went this far, who is to say we cannot continue.

During the meantime, something like an EMP could occur. So for me, financial collapse is coming, but we keep delaying it, surprisingly.


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## Prepping 2015 (Jan 6, 2015)

I think the most realistic shtf scenario, is an economic collapse which results in supply chains to major super markets breaking down. However, a global pandemic is equally likely. Or, alternatively the next ice age as a result of an Icelandic Volcano erupting.


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## sargedog (Nov 12, 2012)

It doesn't have to be a global thing. For me and my wife this was ours, in Feb. 2011 she lost her job due to cutbacks off senior people. In March 2011 I almost died to pulminary Emboli. With neither of us working that meant NO money, thankfully we had a certain amount of money to fall back in savings. When that was gone is when things got tight. We lived on the food we had stored for 2 years. We are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train. You never know what will happen in life, you just have to figure it out as you go. We may not see a global problem in our lifetime, but we definitely saw a personal one. All you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. God will take care of the rest.


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## Prepping 2015 (Jan 6, 2015)

Probably Global Warming to be honest. I don't think people are smart enough to stop mass consuming fossil fuels.


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Prepping 2015 said:


> Probably Global Warming to be honest. I don't think people are smart enough to stop mass consuming fossil fuels.


:hopelessness: seriously?
1) There hasn't been any global warming since 1997.
Report: No Statistical Global Warming In 17 Years | John Hawkins' Right Wing News
10 Questions For Al Gore And The Global Warming Crowd | John Hawkins' Right Wing News

2) There is no scientific consensus that global warming is occurring and caused by man.
Global Warming Petition Project
Blockbuster New Report: 1,000 Scientists Agree There is No ?Man-Caused? Global Warming | John Hawkins' Right Wing News

3) Arctic ice is up 50% since 2012.
CryoSat Satellite Finds Arctic Ice Increased 50% in Volume - Breitbart
NASA and multi-year Arctic ice and historical context | Watts Up With That?

4) Climate models showing global warming have been wrong over and over.
Report: 95 percent of global warming models are wrong | The Daily Caller

5) Predictions about the impact of global warming have already been proven wrong.
Boy, Was Al Gore WRONG? Satellite Data Shows Arctic Sea Ice Coverage Up 50 Percent! | The Gateway Pundit
10 Global Warming Doomsday Predictions | John Hawkins' Right Wing News

Global warming is a big fat lie and the science behind it is fake: John Coleman : SCIENCE : Tech Times[

You can do your own reseach, this is my opinion...


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Kool-aid anyone?!?!?


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

My vote, a large negative shift in the national economy ... although I suspect a slide would be a better description than a rapid collapse.

Part of that negative shift is likely to be due to various consequences of global climate change: more extreme events, both short-term such as major storms and multi-year problems such as droughts in some parts of the world (including some parts of our country) exacerbating water shortages for agriculture.

By the way, I'm a scientist by trade; I get my information on climate change from major peer-reviewed journals. In my opinion, if much of your information comes from places such as "Right Wing News" you are selecting your bias before you even begin reading and have no hope of getting a clear view.


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

In Hawaii, hurricane is the most probable SHTF event.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

You know you guys are just waiting on krakatoa.  

The numbers of new yorkers is increasing like mad here. Those guys and gals are always a problem whenever any event happens.


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Spice said:


> My vote, a large negative shift in the national economy ... although I suspect a slide would be a better description than a rapid collapse.
> 
> Part of that negative shift is likely to be due to various consequences of global climate change: more extreme events, both short-term such as major storms and multi-year problems such as droughts in some parts of the world (including some parts of our country) exacerbating water shortages for agriculture.
> 
> By the way, I'm a scientist by trade; I get my information on climate change from major peer-reviewed journals. In my opinion, if much of your information comes from places such as "Right Wing News" you are selecting your bias before you even begin reading and have no hope of getting a clear view.


I do because i know what im looking for. I am not looking for any "GRUBER'D" data from Al Gore, or there paid "Scientists" like John Coleman.. Alright, so how come global warming discussions end up hinging on what's happening with polar bears, unverifiable predictions of what will happen in a hundred years, and whether people are "climate deniers" or "global warming cultists?" If this is a scientific topic, why isn't anyone spending more time discussing the science involved? Why isn't anyone talking about the evidence and the actual data involved? Why isn't anyone looking at the predictions that were made and seeing if they match up to the results? If this is such an open and shut case, why are so many people who care about science skeptical?


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Spice said:


> My vote, a large negative shift in the national economy ... although I suspect a slide would be a better description than a rapid collapse.
> 
> Part of that negative shift is likely to be due to various consequences of global climate change: more extreme events, both short-term such as major storms and multi-year problems such as droughts in some parts of the world (including some parts of our country) exacerbating water shortages for agriculture.
> 
> By the way, I'm a scientist by trade; I get my information on climate change from major peer-reviewed journals. In my opinion, if much of your information comes from places such as "Right Wing News" you are selecting your bias before you even begin reading and have no hope of getting a clear view.


Cool!!!
What do you study?


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Hawaii Volcano Squad said:


> In Hawaii, hurricane is the most probable SHTF event.


same here hurricanes...


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

This is what i think about peer reviewed papers.

http://gizmodo.com/over-120-science-journal-papers-pulled-for-being-total-1534110496


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ear...m-position-after-McCarthy-style-pressure.html

Click click?


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## Makwa (Dec 19, 2014)

Big Country1 said:


> I do because i know what im looking for. I am not looking for any "GRUBER'D" data from Al Gore, or there paid "Scientists" like John Coleman.. Alright, so how come global warming discussions end up hinging on what's happening with polar bears, unverifiable predictions of what will happen in a hundred years, and whether people are "climate deniers" or "global warming cultists?" If this is a scientific topic, why isn't anyone spending more time discussing the science involved? Why isn't anyone talking about the evidence and the actual data involved? Why isn't anyone looking at the predictions that were made and seeing if they match up to the results? If this is such an open and shut case, why are so many people who care about science skeptical?


Too bad scientists can't get their crap together. They wonder why everyone is not on board one way or the other, but they can't agree on anything. There are many scientists who say the global warming agenda is BS. So many scientists are viewed as bought and paid for shills because of who the receive their funding from. There are very few who do not have unspoken hidden agendas due to who is footing the bill for their studies and expected results. The twisting and distorting of data is so common now that your average guy doesn't know who is a straight shooter and who is just towing the party line for the people providing the funding.

There are very few scientists doing related studies that receive their funding from organizations which just want unbiased results. The other significant problem is that the parameters of most studies are so narrow that the results really don't give us any real answers because they do not factor in the myriad of other things that influence climate. There is a lot of guessing and extrapolation going on that seems to change with which ever way the wind is blowing.

Overall scientists have lot much credibility with the average Joe and they should not be surprised at how little attention people pay to results of their studies. This is especially true when you see guys like Al Gore and such using an issue as a way to make huge money. That causes even more people to say screw it and toss the magazine in the trash.


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## Charles Martel (Mar 10, 2014)

The most likely scenario seems to be a carefully scripted slow decline. Death by a thousand cuts. A downturn in the market here, a terrorist attack there. Within a few decades we'll all be living as serfs, wondering how and where it all went so badly.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Charles Martel said:


> The most likely scenario seems to be a carefully scripted slow decline. Death by a thousand cuts. A downturn in the market here, a terrorist attack there. Within a few decades we'll all be living as serfs, wondering how and where it all went so badly.


Couldn't it be said that this nation has been suffering this very thing, and we are only waiting for the final flat-lining?


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Spice said:


> My vote, a large negative shift in the national economy ... although I suspect a slide would be a better description than a rapid collapse.
> 
> Part of that negative shift is likely to be due to various consequences of global climate change: more extreme events, both short-term such as major storms and multi-year problems such as droughts in some parts of the world (including some parts of our country) exacerbating water shortages for agriculture.
> 
> By the way, I'm a scientist by trade; I get my information on climate change from major peer-reviewed journals. In my opinion, if much of your information comes from places such as "Right Wing News" you are selecting your bias before you even begin reading and have no hope of getting a clear view.


Speaking of bias opinions, i bet you didnt even click on the link i provided. Any other source better for you? Like the NYpost? No climate for honesty: a global warming scam | New York Post

-Science is never settled, but the current state of "climate change" science is quite clear: There is essentially zero evidence that carbon dioxide from human activities is causing catastrophic climate change.
-Yes, the "executive summary" of reports from the UN's International Panel on Climate Change continues to sound the alarm - but the summary is written by the politicians. The scientific bulk of the report, while still tinged with improper advocacy, has all but thrown in the towel.

Leo vs. science: vanishing evidence for climate change | New York Post

Oh and one more thing, I provided sources but as far as i can see, you havent. That is so typical, deny anything questioning your belief, but NO EVIDENCE!!! Im just suppose to belive you cuz your a "scientist"?? Hell i am too i guess... Belive me!


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Makwa said:


> Too bad scientists can't get their shit together. They wonder why everyone is not on board one way or the other, but they can't agree on anything. There are many scientists who say the global warming agenda is BS. So many scientists are viewed as bought and paid for shills because of who the receive their funding from. There are very few who do not have unspoken hidden agendas due to who is footing the bill for their studies and expected results. The twisting and distorting of data is so common now that your average guy doesn't know who is a straight shooter and who is just towing the party line for the people providing the funding.


If I may make a request, please consider rephrasing these kinds of statements in the future to be more specific.

What you are talking about is environmental science, not "general" science. Additionally, a huge bunch of the people who are spouting off about global climate change are either not scientists or not environmental scientists. Many people lumped into the "scientist" categories are no more scientists than I am (which is ZERO percent), like TV weathermen. They are on-air performers, not scientists. The do ZERO research.

For the most part, scientists in general very much have their "shit together"... the field of medical research and pharmacology, physics, botany, chemistry, zoology, genetics, astronomy, functional biology, cellular biology encompass the vast majority of scientists and they most definitely have their "shit" together.

Additionally, (this is not pointed at Makwa or any other individual it's just stating a general truism) the lay-person's inability to understand a concept does not indicate a flaw in the science, rather a lack of education on the end-user's part.

We live in a world where people discuss all science with an approach of "needs are mechanisms", and that's a complete falsehood.

By and large, scientists have their shit together. If they didn't, your internet wouldn't work, cars would still be running on points, there would not be computers, transistors, you would not have antibiotics and chemotherapy and all of the other parts of our pharmacology, you would not have satellites and cell phones and microwave ovens and (insert massive list of modern devices, drugs, etc...)

In the field of Geo science, we have a consensus of what most trained scientists think, plus a vocal minority. Both sides are championed by idology-based proponents who misuse and misinterpret data to support their political claims.

The evidence is what it is. Interpretation is what it is. Politics are what they are.

I am not an scientist, nor do I play one on the internet. I am married to a scientist, however, and in our 30 years of being together I have learned one thing. In her field, which is physiology, she and her colleagues most definitely have their "shit together" and they can destroy within seconds any of the silly faux-science babble that comes up, crap from people like that idiot Ken Hamm and the young earth dinosaurs were on the ark crowd. Still, people will ignore the evidence and believe what they believe simply because they refuse to change their mind in light of the unimaginably huge mound of evidence that shows they are wrong.

Why? Why will people choose to believe the patently silly over evidence? Why would they say "this just CANNOT be right, so the scientists are wrong?"

Normalcy bias.

Why is normalcy bias a bad thing, and something we should work to train out of ourselves in favor of evidence-based thinking? Because normalcy bias in a survival situation is one thing that will get you killed very early in a survival event. It's what caused the life boats to leave the Titanic half empty, even though there was only enough room in them if filled to capacity for 1/3rd of the people on the ship.

I propose that a whole lot of the concept of "scientists not having their shit together" is more "so many of them disagree with me and those on my side" normalcy bias than actual disagreement among scientists. It's also a question of people with a political agenda on both sides of the argument who have used studies incorrectly, who have played Old Harry with the truth or flat out lied.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

physiology - the branch of biology that deals with the normal functions of living organisms and their parts.

Very interesting!


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## slewfoot (Nov 6, 2013)

What ever it will be if you are a good prepper bring it on you will survive.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

slewfoot said:


> What ever it will be if you are a good prepper bring it on you will survive.


Or not.

Most people, including most preppers, will not survive a TEOTWAWKI SHTF event should God forbid one occur.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Rumor on the Conspiracy Street has it that Big Money is preparing to live underground for a while due to a nuclear event that is to be on the horizon.

Even if I worked over time every night....


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Denton said:


> Even if I worked over time every night....


Yes, and there seriously comes a point in time when you have done all you can to prepare for a low-probability event like nuclear war, then you just make the best of whatever situation happens and that's what you can do.


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## Makwa (Dec 19, 2014)

Point taken SNP, but as we were discussing climate I assumed it would be taken that I was referring to 'scientists' in that sort of field. Sadly, I know several in that field up here in Canada. Two work for universities and one with government. They do NOT agree on many issues with regards to climate change. Just a couple of years ago I helped field a crew of college professors from the US mid-west that were studying sub-arctic climate change in the past by studying core samples. I had many interesting conversations with them and most assuredly they were not convinced about the global warming theories that seem to be front and centre for the last decade.

Go figure....................


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Makwa said:


> Point taken SNP, but as we were discussing climate I assumed it would be taken that I was referring to 'scientists' in that sort of field..


Not everybody, unfortunately, makes such distinctions... it's easy for people to go from "environmental scientists don't have their shit together" to "scientists don't have their shit together" mentally, that's a quick (and entirely erroneous) leap for many.

Climate science is basically in it's infancy, and the data-gathering process is ongoing...

I think the crux of the problem is demagogues with political agendas are running amok making wild suppositions that turn out to not be true. There is a huge difference between the statement "The evidence we have gathered on this to date shows a current trend of..." and "Scientist's data proves that..."

Data doesn't conflict, it's a lack of understanding the data's place in the overall puzzle that "appears" to conflict.

There should be no debate that the climate is changing, because it obviously is. Yet, people still deny that change is happening, which is stupid. It IS changing. The CAUSE of that change, now THAT is something that needs as much exploration as possible.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> I am not an scientist, nor do I play one on the internet. I am married to a scientist, however, and in our 30 years of being together I have learned one thing. In her field, which is physiology, she and her colleagues most definitely have their "shit together" and they can destroy within seconds any of the silly faux-science babble that comes up, crap from people like that idiot Ken Hamm and the young earth dinosaurs were on the ark crowd.


I would love to see your wife debate Ken Hamm or Kent Hovind... I have seen some pretty smart scientist get their "degrees" handed to them






heck I would like to see her debate Michael J. Behe... I always get a laugh out of highly educated atheists who get schooled... ha ha ha ha

your wife might want to pick up a copy of "Darwins Black Box" she might learn something important


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Global financial collapse
Man caused EMP either caused by a foreign Nation or terrorists
Pandemic, either natural occurring or a weaponized disease
EMP caused by sun.
Mass social unrest.


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

When Al Gore quotes the percentage of "scientists" who believe in man made global warming, he is playing fast and loose with the facts. First one might assume that he is speaking about climatologists, he isn't. In a survey of climatologists it is almost even between those who do and those who don't believe in made global warming. Gore not only includes ALL scientists, most who have no experience or study related fields to the climate, but he also includes professions like high school biology and algebra teachers, and tv weather people. He has stacked the deck in his favor, and has made hundreds of millions in personal wealth by doing so. 

Some well known info, Al Gore travels by private jet to these different locations. Just how concerned is he really about man made global warming?


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## Charles Martel (Mar 10, 2014)

Prepping 2015 said:


> Probably Global Warming to be honest. I don't think people are smart enough to stop mass consuming fossil fuels.


As someone with advanced degrees in Earth Science and Geology, I can assure you that anthropogenic global warming is probably the least likely of the SHTF scenarios I've seen listed here (perhaps slightly more likely than a Zombie apocalypse). A 150 ppm million increase in atmospheric C02 levels simply isn't going to tip the balance one way or another. Atmospheric C02 levels have fluctuated wildly over the last few hundreds of millions of years. There is a very poor correlation between historical atmospheric C02 levels and average global temperatures. Please note where the average global temperature and average atmospheric C02 levels are currently (at the far right of the chart below). We are currently very, very cold, and our atmosphere is currently very C02 impoverished by historical (geologic) standards.









You're statistically far more likely to experience rapid onset global cooling in your lifetime than you are to see rapid or dangerous global warming. C02 levels have been up to 20 times what they are now, but the earth didn't cease to be inhabitable.

It amazes me what kind of mind job the popular media and big brother have done on people with regards to AGWT.


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> There should be no debate that the climate is changing, because it obviously is. Yet, people still deny that change is happening, which is stupid. It IS changing. The CAUSE of that change, now THAT is something that needs as much exploration as possible.


Yes climate is changing, its always changing. But there are people with an evil agenda that are pushing this for special interests. Why do you think they call it "Climate Change"? I think most people agree that it does and is always changing, easier too get the sheeple on board. But the question is so called, "Global Warming" or Climate Change" actually man-made? From my research, no. but yours may vary.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I would love to see your wife debate Ken Hamm or Kent Hovind... I have seen some pretty smart scientist get their "degrees" handed to them
> 
> 
> 
> ...


There is no point in debating Ken Hamm. His "science" is entirely rubbish.

It is fiction. It didn't happen.

But... with Hamm and his people evidence doesn't matter. At all. All that matters is what they believe, not what anybody can show with evidence.

One of the main guys behind Hamm's Creation Museum is Kurt Wise, who famously stated the following: "Although there are scientific reasons for accepting a young earth, I am a young age creationist because that is my understanding of the Scripture. As I shared with my professors years ago when I was in college, if all the evidence in the universe turns against creationism, I would be the first to admit it, but I would still be a creationist because that is what the Word of God seems to indicate"

In other words "I will not listen to a word you say because I believe what I believe".

There's no debating that. It's pointless.

Science is built ENTIRELY around the concept that "my theory COULD be wrong". What makes a scientific theory a theory, in part, is that there is the possibility (however unlikely) that it could potentially be disproved. What makes what those people at Hamm's institution pointless to debate is that they take the opposite approach, "No matter what you say, I am right because I am right."

"I am right because I am right" thinking is not worth debating or even really discussing.

Here's the thing about debates. You say you always enjoy watching "educated athiests get schooled". Good for you. There's a reason he picks who he debates carefully, though... notice he has never debated his "irreproachably complex" argument against scientists who work in the fields he is saying are irreducible complex? There's a reason he chooses "general scholars" instead of, for example, somebody who has published 20 peer reviewed papers about the genetic development of the eye. I've had a discussion, recently, with a person who HAS published many more than 20 peer reviewed papers on the genetic development of the eye who would gladly debate the "irreducible complexity" theory of the eye with Behe, and show that he doesn't know what the hell he is talking about when the rubber hits the road.

Yeah, the guy is a great debater... but that's THEATER not science. The guy is wrong, he's demonstrably wrong, and he won't debate REAL experts on what he is attacking.

There's no point in going on, because anybody who believes in young Earth has their mind fixed and set that they are right and everybody else is wrong. Period, end of story, screw everybody, we are right!

That's not debate.

If you have any specific questions you would like answered, I am sure the wife would be more than happy to do so if they are within her area of knowledge. Feel free to ask her, I am done here with this.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> There is no point in debating Ken Hamm. His "science" is entirely rubbish.
> 
> It is fiction. It didn't happen. *<Very sound argument>*
> 
> ...


*I have a question for her

Please explain how first life (Abiogenesis) could come to be? In clearer terms - How could a "Life" with the ability to find food, digest food, turn food to energy, move energy to correct location, expel waste, and reproduce (All the things needed for success) come to be ALL AT ONCE by chance. 
*
And thinking your right and everybody else is wrong - shows that a person is convinced... I think my name is John, Anybody that thinks differently is wrong.

Science should be a search for causes... and it was until they (the wacko job atheists changed the definition) now it is a search for Natural Causes...

any non-natural humanist cause MUST be rejected... Science has no room for God.. not because there is no God but because to even admit that some things are so FINE tuned that they point to a creator is unacceptable.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

I've been preparing for the end of the world as we know it due to the DUMBASSIFICATION OF THE PEOPLE WHO INHABIT SAID WORLD.

Thanks


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> *I have a question for her
> 
> Please explain how first life (Abiogenesis) could come to be? In clearer terms - How could a "Life" with the ability to find food, digest food, turn food to energy, move energy to correct location, expel waste, and reproduce (All the things needed for success) come to be ALL AT ONCE by chance.
> *


I don't have to even consult an expert for this (and this IS my final comment on this, since this is sidetracking the OP's thread).

Abiogenesis requires nothing of the sort. It's a red herring argument, since only creationism requires all of what you say to happen all at once BOOM out of the blue. That's not how it happens. I suggest a study of amino acids, how they form and how they work to anybody who doesn't understand them, even I an untrained layman knows that, learned that in Biology 107.

I suspect, however, she will reply to this later to tell you why it's a red herring in a bit more detail.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> I don't have to even consult an expert for this (and this IS my final comment on this, since this is sidetracking the OP's thread).
> 
> Abiogenesis requires nothing of the sort. It's a red herring argument, since only creationism requires all of what you say to happen all at once BOOM out of the blue. That's not how it happens. I suggest a study of amino acids, how they form and how they work to anybody who doesn't understand them, even I an untrained layman knows that, learned that in Biology 107.
> 
> I suspect, however, she will reply to this later to tell you why it's a red herring in a bit more detail.


I always love the "it is so simple I do not even have to explain it to you" answer

I understand why its your last word... no problem, i see it all the time.


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## TacticalCanuck (Aug 5, 2014)

For my kids the shtf when they don't clean their rooms! For the rest of us its financial collapse and the ensuing mayhem that seems as the most likely. As I've said before a shtf doesn't have to be global or even country wide. Your life can get turned inside out any time and extra eats and water and the means to self sustain just make a whole heap of good sense.


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> I don't have to even consult an expert for this (and this IS my final comment on this, since this is sidetracking the OP's thread).
> 
> Abiogenesis requires nothing of the sort. It's a red herring argument, since only creationism requires all of what you say to happen all at once BOOM out of the blue. That's not how it happens. I suggest a study of amino acids, how they form and how they work to anybody who doesn't understand them, even I an untrained layman knows that, learned that in Biology 107.
> 
> I suspect, however, she will reply to this later to tell you why it's a red herring in a bit more detail.


Current biological theory in no way claims all of the abilities you mention (abilities that do characterize current life forms) all arose at once. The theory is that the origins of life came in stages. For example: An early requirement would be to have amino acids, nucleic acids, and similar molecular building blocks arise from non-living systems. That's easy, it can be replicated today in any decently equipped lab by tossing a bunch of the chemicals that geologists tell us would have been abundant in a forming earth and adding energy. Electrical energy is popular for people doing these experiments and is also abundant and naturally arising (lightning).

Another step is the self-assembly of these building blocks into long chains. The hypothesis for this best supported by current data has this happening on the surface of particular kinds of clays. Some clays we find today, and also find in rocks of the appropriate age, have chemical properties that promote the bonding of, for example, one amino acid to another.

A further step is to have some of these molecules promote formation of others like them. Do such molecules exist? Sure, living things today are full of them; I've just described some enzymes. Are such long complex molecules likely to arise by chance? Well, a tiny fraction of self-assembling molecules would be likely to have such properties. But we're not talking trying to get this done in a lab before lunch break, we're talking about having potentially millions of square miles of shoreline clay formations worldwide covered with a film of organic molecules, and having hundreds of millions of years of randomly forming molecules. If you toss enough coins, you will eventually get a string of 25 heads in a row just by chance; even events that are individually unlikely become very likely if you give them enough chances.

Once you have some molecules that promote formation of more like themselves, you're no longer relying on chance. Now selection plays a role: Random developments that worked and make more of themselves make more and more. Small variations that make them slightly more efficient become more abundant. Groupings of molecules that work together effectively are creating more groupings, and so on.

Can we get these molecules in a cell? The lipids that make up cell membranes do spontaneously form under the kinds of conditions we think the early world had. They do spontaneously assemble into membranes (I've done that experiment personally). They do start to pick up some proteins to behave more like real cell membranes. So we can see how an accumulating group of self-reproducing molecules can get clustered together in something that looks like a cell membrane. And every such accumulation that reproduces more efficiently due to some random change tends to become more abundant, and the very many random changes that don't help or hurt disappear because they're not reproducing.

So that's the basics of biogenesis as a modern biological theory &#8230; adding one ability after another, with lots and lots of random associations to choose from and the few that work having a greater chance of persisting, making more copies of themselves, becoming further modified.

Is it yet a perfect airtight story for which every answer is available? No. But it matches the world we see around us, it predicted some things we didn't understand before the theory developed, it matches all available evidence we could think of a way to look for so far, it's in accordance with the laws of nature as we know them, and every year we learn a little bit more and fill in more of the story.


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## Urinal Cake (Oct 19, 2013)

Grid collapse or Shanaynay finds out the Gubmint is broke and there's no more free shit. Shanaynay burns and loots along with her babe daddies and it's Detroit 1967 all over again.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Spice said:


> Current biological theory in no way claims all of the abilities you mention (abilities that do characterize current life forms) all arose at once. The theory is that the origins of life came in stages. For example: An early requirement would be to have amino acids, nucleic acids, and similar molecular building blocks arise from non-living systems. That's easy, it can be replicated today in any decently equipped lab by tossing a bunch of the chemicals that geologists tell us would have been abundant in a forming earth and adding energy. Electrical energy is popular for people doing these experiments and is also abundant and naturally arising (lightning).
> 
> Another step is the self-assembly *(Self assembly - is in they assembly themselves - Wont this require some intelligence??)* - of these building blocks into long chains. The hypothesis for this best supported by current data has this happening on the surface of particular kinds of clays. Some clays we find today, and also find in rocks of the appropriate age, have chemical properties that promote the bonding of, for example, one amino acid to another.
> 
> ...


I love logic. Logic requires us to think and reason. The above is a good story, but it is not logical.. it is more wishful then anything.

Adding one ability after another - this is the weakest argument ever... to think nature would promote (your word) or pass on a half formed ability or half formed sense or half formed organ. Why would nature select to pass on the ability to absorb/eat/intake food without the ability to expel waste.

The passing on of these "not complete" process does not make sense...do you honestly think that a cell/protein was hanging around for 12 million years some how reproducing itself waiting for the right change to happen so it could start expelling waste. wait!!!! that would require it to have the ability to reproduce...

here is a great article on the Laws of Nature versus the Laws of Science...Laws of Nature | Internet Encyclopedia of Philosophy

I have read many books and listen to many folks...I am unconvinced that chance accounts for life...

by the way - i do not have a problem with evolution in that there are changes within species... I do not see it accounting for birds from dinosaurs


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I love logic. Logic requires us to think and reason. The above is a good story, but it is not logical.. it is more wishful then anything.
> 
> Adding one ability after another - this is the weakest argument ever... to think nature would promote (your word) or pass on a half formed ability or half formed sense or half formed organ. Why would nature select to pass on the ability to absorb/eat/intake food without the ability to expel waste.
> 
> ...


Why would an imperfect ability be promoted? Is gliding of no purpose to a flying squirrel, because it's not Real flight? Is my ability to run useless, because others are faster? Is the rudimentary not-yet-a-real-eye pigment spot of a dinoflagellate useless because it can't see images (by the way, it does help it the find the surface of the water where it can photosynthesize).

On the molecular level, enzymes don't Make new things happen. They enhance the rates at which things happen. If there is no enzyme yet for a particular job, it doesn't mean the cell can not do the job, it means it can not yet do the job with high efficiency. That means there is no reason to expect that every piece of a complex system we see today might have had to come into existence simultaneously. And one ability before another, such as seeking and absorbing food with no way to get rid of the waste? Look for an excretory system in a fungus some time. They don't have one.

That people can not imagine how it could have happened is not evidence the thing did not happen. Could Shakespeare have imagined how a cell phone works? More to the point, that people who have not themselves deeply studied a subject are not convinced by the explanations of those who have spent decades on that deep study does not make the explanations false. And when I say 'deeply studied' I mean spent serious time exploring the wealth of detail of actual living things and physical evidence and constructing understanding, not spent a lot of time reading -- particularly when selectively reading from sources that agree with one's own opinion. The world is what it is, and our opinions make no difference to it. I just aimed to clarify a misinterpretation of a scientific position (that all the characteristics of life Must have arisen at once) because Salty asked me to. Having done that, I am bowing out...the thread has already heard about what I think are the most likely scenarios.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Spice said:


> Why would an imperfect ability be promoted? *>That was my question and I am still waiting on an answer<* Is gliding of no purpose to a flying squirrel > because it's not Real flight? Is my ability to run useless, because others are faster? Is the rudimentary not-yet-a-real-eye pigment spot of a dinoflagellate useless because it can't see images (by the way, it does help it the find the surface of the water where it can photosynthesize). *<<<Strawman arguments and avoids the need for rudimentary abilities like food processing, expulsion, reproduction, etc<*
> 
> On the molecular level, enzymes don't Make new things happen. They enhance the rates at which things happen. *<Right so they need something to act on.. what are they acting on... are you saying enzymes account for the development of sight, reproduction, energy movement through cell walls>* If there is no enzyme yet for a particular job, it doesn't mean the cell can not do the job, it means it can not yet do the job with high efficiency. That means there is no reason to expect that every piece of a complex system we see today might have had to come into existence simultaneously. And one ability before another, such as seeking and absorbing food with no way to get rid of the waste? Look for an excretory system in a fungus some time. [*B]<This example is either dishonest or you are unfamiliar with fungus - If you are trying to say fungus take in nutrients and do not expel a by product of that you are again..either dishoinest or uneducated... here is some suggested reading ---https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20080916141941AAPNFyp<* [/B]They don't have one.
> 
> That people can not imagine how it could have happened is not evidence the thing did not happen. *<Agreed.. also. making stuff up that sounds nice and sciencey is not evidence either<*Could Shakespeare have imagined how a cell phone works? More to the point, that people who have not themselves deeply studied a subject are not convinced by the explanations of those who have spent decades on that deep study does not make the explanations false. And when I say 'deeply studied' I mean spent serious time exploring the wealth of detail of actual living things and physical evidence and constructing understanding, not spent a lot of time reading -- particularly when selectively reading from sources that agree with one's own opinion.*<<Another strawman argument - You may do this... me i like read from lots of different sides>>**<This is the worst of arguments.. a person can not KNOW something unless they have actually done it themselves... And frankly it does not take decades... AND most knowledge is built on... in other words... joe did something and now frank is using that to add to knowledge, there are lots of folks that know things about nuclear bombs and they have never buily or used one themselves - There are TWO ways to "KNOW" something... 1. Personal experience and 2. competent authority.... I can never see george washington be president but I trust certain folks that I view as authorities< *seen it The world is what it is, and our opinions make no difference to it. I just aimed to clarify a misinterpretation of a scientific position (that all the characteristics of life Must have arisen at once) because Salty asked me to. Having done that, I am bowing out...the thread has already heard about what I think are the most likely scenarios.




And other - "things are so simple I shall not waste my time defending the position"


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Back to topic, would be interesting to see any crystal balls got changed?? (Prediction wise)


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

pheniox17 said:


> Back to topic, would be interesting to see any crystal balls got changed?? (Prediction wise)


Discarding my originally smartass post I still think it is going to be an economic collapse caused by the idiotic way America is being run.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

It will be some type of economic collapse..

anybody see what happened in Greece this week


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## Gunner's Mate (Aug 13, 2013)

Seriously think about smaller scale SHTF scenarios I am not detracting from the above mentioned posts because they are very real possibilties but lets say something a little closer to home, like say Loss of a Job, Serious Health Issue (I fell off a roof this weekend 50 year olds dont bounce I am Luckily OK) or divorce, or death of spouse, Identity Theft, I can say we all prepare for the zoombie apcolypse but what about everyday real life, just a little food for thought.


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

Race war has already started. Dumb ******* just dont realize it yet.


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## CTOLDFART (Jan 28, 2015)

At first glance it appears whatever the cause it will shake out the same way. People fighting over scraps of food, water, weapons, fuel, women, booze, cars, etc. without present infrastructure - heat, power, gas, hardware/grocery stores, sewage, tap water, friends ...... Not pretty.

DICK


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## UrbanDwarf (Feb 9, 2015)

Possible:

Asteroid

Putin

Atmosphere mess up (See snow penetrator*Snorts at name*)

Putin

America

Chemical threat

Putin

Zombies

Nuclear issues of any kind

Oh, and did I mention Putin may be a threat? (Keep my suspicions a secret :68


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Putin is no threat compared to obama and the queen. The two biggest muslim supporters besides France anybody knows of...


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## luminaughty (Dec 16, 2014)

I think it will be a financial collapse. I don't know whether it will be caused by our dollar collapse from our deficit or a major terrorist attack (false flag) that causes the panic in the financial markets that create a chain reaction.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

let's see ,hum, I live to be 95 be bedridden and shit myself with out being able to wipe my own ass-yep that's got to suck.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

My dad used to say that the world would end, for him, on the day he died. It did, but part of our world died that day too. He was, of course right, in that his job here was done. He was a good man, with faults like all of us. I miss him still, but his time is passed. 

I am prepared for the most obvious and most likely events here and those are what I expect will happen. I don't know if the world will ever collapsed around me but I am ready to deal with it the best I can. I just try to live each day like it is my last day here.


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## charito (Oct 12, 2013)

Economic collapse


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

The one that seems most likely to hit here is wind and fire. I have cleared the trees away from the house so they won't crush me in my sleep (I don't trust wood) and I have as much protection from fire as I can have. The brush is cleared away, the shop and garage have cement board over OSB on the exterior and each is rated at 30 minutes of protection and I have OSB and drywall on the interior which adds another hour to the protection. I have ample water to fight a fire and I have a hydrant just 30 yards from my front door. The roofs of the home and out buildings is fiberglass three tab with a very high fire rating and it has withstood the 80 mph winds we have had in the past. I do have adequate insurance (apparently they won't let you take out more insurance than a single policy on your home) for total replacement of my home, out buildings and the contents at replacement costs minus a $1000 deductible. 

I don't think I could do any more to be ready for those two. There is a third, although minor consideration for minor earthquake. I have all the book cases in the library tied into the wall with straps, the computers are solidly mounted to the desks with industrial velcro and the cabinet and cupboard doors all have "quake latches" to prevent the dishes and groceries from falling out and onto the floors. All the pictures on the walls are well anchored to the walls and won't fall, there isn't any furniture close to windows that could break so I am fairly certain that we will survive if an earthquake does happen. The house is fastened to the foundation as code requires and the two outbuildings that I built are fastened beyond code by 50+%.

Short of a determined arsonist or a military incursion I am as safe as anyone could be. (I'll be putting in the SAM battery and the automated RPGs tomorrow)


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## Spartacus The Patriot (Jun 2, 2015)

Well, as a newB, I got on here to ask the same question. What is everyone prepping for? I mentioned in my introduction post that I have recently opened my eyes to everything going on around me and its time to take action. I'm glad I found this thread and I have read all 17+ pages of post. I first want to say how some of the post mentioned riots and cop haters, etc. So strange how they mentioned that 6 months ago and its only gotten worse. With that being said....20th anniversary of the Million Man March is Oct 10th 2015....Titled......Justice or Else.....
This could very well be the trigger or soon after affect. 
When I started to prep,, my first thought was, is this a fad that has been hyped and everyone's trying to make a buck? My second thought was, what direction do I go for best preparation? What and where do I go if its an Economic Collapse? (my prediction). What and where do I go if its an asteroid or other natural disaster? What and where do I go if its an EMP? All this is considered and I have to tell myself this....The Bible states that "This" has to happen. I am to fear nothing but God himself. I am preparing to protect family and friends until the day its finally over for me and I will do my best to make sure I have things set up if I leave anyone left behind once I'm gone. Thats all we can do.
If anyone reads this post in the future, heres whats happened in the recent weeks:
Baltimore crime is up nearly 60% and Cops are afraid.
Ramadi taken by ISIS and Iragi Military not in position to fight back.
FBI using private planes to spy on Americans and Patriot Act expires.
Cern to start season 2 and double the power
Live Anthrax delivered to 9 States and 3 Countries when thought to be dead bacteria
Jade Helm 15
Nato Drills in eastern Europe and Russia starts an Air Drill in October 2015
I could go one but you see that a War, Natural Disaster and Economic Collapse are all coming to a town near you.

Sorry to be lengthy, but I am actually excited to be apart of this generation and may actually get to see the Second Coming. 
God Bless


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Sparticus? I would rather not see any of the scenarios, large or small, that are discussed here, come to pass. The worst of these scenarios may truly mean the end of times....However, it will be an ugly, distructive, hell on earth. ( Think the battle of Verdun to get a visual. ) Most if not all, will perish. In any event, it will not be fun and people will die. I would rather drink a beer with old Slip, Ark, Denton, RPD and the rest of the guys here and watch a football game thank you very much. Oh yea......Guess we would have to invite Mish. Someone has to fetch the beer.


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## Disturbed12404 (Apr 23, 2015)

I am glad someone brought this thread back to life, I have been thinking about it and the situations I find most likely are.

*Fire and or hurricanes. *

Where I live in Jersey is smack dab in the middle of the pine barrens, 20 minutes from Camden/Trenton, and half hour from the shore.

*Rioting,* Slowly the scum from Trenton and Camden have been making their way south and east. I wouldn't be surprised if rioting ourbreaks got so bad they declared martial law in this county. I doubt that would last more than a week but still.


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## talon115 (May 28, 2015)

I think the US .gov is going to slowly crumble under the weight of it's own hubris.


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## alexus (May 31, 2015)

I think the most likely scenario is pandemic. The devastation a global pandemic would cause would be astronomical. In my area hospitals are full and people can wait as long as 48 hours for a bed, I can't imagine what it would be like in the event of a pandemic.


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## Spartacus The Patriot (Jun 2, 2015)

Anthrax is in the news and could very well be the case. Also, they spoke this morning about how some of it was sent in fedex envelopes. Can you imagine of the delivery drivers got it and with them touching every box around the country or world ?


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## Spartacus The Patriot (Jun 2, 2015)

Do you all really believe that we will have leave our homes and hunker down somewhere? If the economy crashes or pandemic breaks out? I just want to prepare for the right things. Are you all going to stay in the city or home or leave it all?


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## jdbushcraft (Mar 26, 2015)

Spartacus The Patriot said:


> Anthrax is in the news and could very well be the case. Also, they spoke this morning about how some of it was sent in fedex envelopes. Can you imagine of the delivery drivers got it and with them touching every box around the country or world ?


It was in a sealed vial. Inside a sealed bag. Inside a small box. Inside a larger padded box. Even FedEx and ups would be hard pressed to disturb it.


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## Spartacus The Patriot (Jun 2, 2015)

I with you. I hope that it's nothing more than precautions in the labs. Although they mentioned from the start that there are two ways they ship them. A version for live and a version for dead bacteria. These were ship as if it was dead bacteria. If there is a reason for the different versions, then something could go wrong.


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## RNprepper (Apr 5, 2014)

Whatever event happens first will start a cascade of events that enemies will take advantage of. Whether an Carrington Event or pandemic, there will be huge economic implications, if not collapse. Russian, China, North Korea, or Iran will jump in to use the opportunity for a blindside attack either on Israel or the US or Europe. I can easily see loss of the power grid, economic collapse, pesitilance, and war all happening simultaneously. Prepare for that, and you are ready for anything!


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

Due to global weather conditions, unusually active Hurricane season predicted in the Pacific so same as always, we prep for hurricanes & windstorms first in Hawaii.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

Hawaii Volcano Squad said:


> Due to global weather conditions, unusually active Hurricane season predicted in the Pacific so same as always, we prep for hurricanes & windstorms first in Hawaii.


You mean you're not worried about that pesky volcano? It could go Krakatoa at anytime....


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## redhawk (May 7, 2014)

Whatever is the most likely SHTF scenario will probably star with a total breakdown of communications...JM2C


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

James m said:


> You mean you're not worried about that pesky volcano? It could go Krakatoa at anytime....


Maybe... maybe not, but hurricane's are a 100% certainty.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

The Hawaiian volcanoes do not have a high enough silica concentration to hold the water in the magma. They can erupt violently but not with the explosive quality of Mt. Saint Helen. They just belch molten rock - not scary stuff like ash plumes and explosive mud flows.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

But remember what happened to OAHU. It split and such a big piece fell into the ocean it created a humongous tidal wave that may have wiped the chain clean with a 2300 foot tall tsunami. Now they say it could happen to the big island. Maybe not a volcano eruption but real bad, none the less.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Don't forget La Palma island. It is staged to slough off a huge part with the next eruption and send a tsunamy that could wipe out the eastern seaboard of the USA and Great Britain.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

PaulS said:


> The Hawaiian volcanoes do not have a high enough silica concentration to hold the water in the magma. They can erupt violently but not with the explosive quality of Mt. Saint Helen. They just belch molten rock - not scary stuff like ash plumes and explosive mud flows.


Yet....


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

It is the nature of the volcano. The island volcanoes come from a hot spot and so the magma is coming straight from the core. The Cascade volcanoes come from plate tectonics and a subduction zone. The silica is part of the crust that is being pulled down. The friction and heat mixes the silica with the moisture and the magma. That is why the Cascade volcanoes don't have lava flows but do have explosive eruptions. The silica and water expands over 1000 times in volume once the presure is released. Magma only expands about 25% when the pressure is released.


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## triem (Jun 18, 2015)

the dems actually succeed in passing gun grab, and cops are dumb enough to try to ENFORCE such a seizure, and guys like me put out the word about how to stop it and it's ON, baby. Once it starts, the rest of the world will stop buying our short term bonds, and that will collapse the $. Then there will be no oil. That means no water in the pipes, no electricity, no gas, no nothing, basically. Cities will burn, so will pine forests, prairies, grainfields, refineries, pipe lines. Power grids will short out, roads full of shot up, stalled vehicles, flat tires, etc.


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## coldasisis (Jun 22, 2015)

Disarming Americans, FEMA camps, jade helm, government purposely crashing the economy, new world order, it's coming and the sheeple are not paying attention!


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## BeefBallsBerry (Aug 25, 2013)

7 year tribilation, economy, crab people


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## Spartacus The Patriot (Jun 2, 2015)

7 year Tribulation won't be until the peace treaty is signed. Once that's done...look out. First half may be daily life but the second half is going to be hell on earth. IMO


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## Lady_Husker (Aug 8, 2015)

I thought the most likely situation to cause a SHTF issue would be the collapse of our economy, but I'm starting to lean more towards a second War Between the States with the end result of an Arab nation attacking while we are fighting among ourselves. Or the Second Coming...it is a bit up in the air at this point.


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## NotTooProudToHide (Nov 3, 2013)

For my area I am preparing for tornado's and or a major new madrid earthquake. I feel like if I can get squared away for those I can handle most anything


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

It is always best to prepare for those things that are historically likely in your area.
After that you can prepare for the big things that may happen or the ones that might affect the whole country or the world.


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## Prepadoodle (May 28, 2013)

Millions of black Americans, tired of being treated unjustly by a legal system over which they have no control, and sick of the unequal application of law in general, come to the realization that their best chance to set things straight is to embrace Islam and take up the jihad against their perceived oppressors.

We awaken to find that all of our major cities _are already occupied_ by hostile forces who only lacked the leadership and direction to become a cohesive, motivated, indignant force of destruction.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

In my area the biggest threat in the last 10 years has been wildfires. That is why I used fire-proof and fire resistant materials with which to build. I exceeded the fire regulations, the earthquake regulation and the wind regulations. I cleared the trees that were close enough to be a fire or wind threat. I am not in a tornado area, not in a high risk area for quakes, not in a flood zone, and far enough from the oceans that tsunamis are not a threat. The small town closest won't suffer from Jihad or economic collapse like a big city would, and there is ample supplies of the basics within the area. The biggest threat would be martial law or HEMP. I am as prepared as I can be for everything on the list.


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## Karate Kid (Aug 15, 2015)

I'm not exactly sure what it is I am waiting for, but September has sure got my attention. I'm thinking a total financial collapse, and that could be just the beginning of what is coming, beyond that, anything goes.


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## Urbanprepper666 (Apr 19, 2015)

I agree everyone should prep for things that are prone to certain disaster but no matter what actually happens one common factor is bad people will use it as opportunity to run ramped. We here prepare for riots and economic collapse and prepare for the people to appose the police and loot and take advantage of the weak. I stock food water weapons med supplies wood screws tons of batteries, inverters, spare parts car parts gas for the generator, and very important stuff for the kids, board games, cards, dvd player with solar chargers ect.... we are worried about being attacked and taken advantage of more then running low on food and water as the larger cities will be harder to get under control then the suburbs and rural areas.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Your "common factor" (riots and looting) is less likely to happen in a rural setting than in an urban setting. Even suburban ares will not be as prone to your "common factor" as city centers.
We should all be prepared to defend ourselves but not necessarily from rioting hoards.


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## beach23bum (Jan 27, 2015)

financial meltdown for sure... the market today is showing the dip. just how far I have no idea


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

Many are likely to happen but it is just a question of whether it will be in our lifetime.

Perhaps a better question is, what is the mostly like SHTF scenario we will face in order of occurrence.

Currently North Korea is threatening to do something to south korea - not new - but who knows.
There is a war in the middle east - not new - but heck it could cause a broader issue - syria/iraq/iran gulf turkey. Its causing issues.
Greece got its bailout but things are still economically shakey - not only in Europe but even in America where there are some questions about quantitative easy, rate hikes and the federal election. Oil is low enough that it is causing disruption in the energy sector traditionally a strong economic input for north america. There is enough resource though, but there is also the environmental time bomb.


I think that short of a nuclear exchange or massive war which is just unthinkable, the climate war is one people are recognizing more and more. 


EMP risk is also growing daily as every day less is just that much more statistically likely tomorrow.

There is the disase issue, currently no real big issue exists and more and more prevention is rolling out.


In this mindset I think we are in Cold War 2.0 (or maybe a warm war). It is really unthinkable until it happens. Right now it is very contained proxy war but these proxy wars can't go on much longer there really ain't any proxy points left in nonsensitive areas. The technological turnover is the question. Eg. new hypersonic missiles are a game change, and hypersonic nuclear missiles are a game changer.

I don't think anything is likely but there are a lot of things that could happen.

I'll feel much better once the sept 28th / 29th finishes, as I will have a critical look at september and see if anything signifigant happened.


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## mcangus (Jun 3, 2014)

One thing I noticed, the most intelligent and level headed preppers all seem to point at economic collapse. I suppose intelligent can be subjective because I am going off on books written and youtube videos. But if you look look at all the more well known preppers from youtube, podcast, books, etc I think most of them see an economic collapse coming with 100% certainty. They all agree that EMP could happen, or race war could happen, but when they talk about economic collapse it is a different tone.


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## johngalt1701 (Jul 17, 2014)

My 2¢. 

Multiple terrorist attack/civil unrest which will lead to Marshall law and the suspension of constitutional rights, which then leads way to economic collapse. 

Another scenario I've discussed with like minded people is the potential for Obama to make himself some kind of King or dictator. My guess is who ever wins the 2016 presidential election will , by Obama, be deemed unfit to lead the country. And he will make power moves to keep him in office. If that happens all hell will break loose. 

Or an EMP


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## MisterMills357 (Apr 15, 2015)

I will be sitting around minding my own business, and SHAZAM!! All Hell breaks loose, and there I will be, right in the middle of it, as usual. 
I just hope that my aim is better, than the last time that things broke loose, because I MISSED THAT GUY BY A MILE!! I used a bullet and missed!:armata_PDT_25:


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## turbo6 (Jun 27, 2014)

I've been preppping for the rabid weasel apocalypse for some time. The threat is real folks. They attack in groups of 10


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

johngalt1701 said:


> My 2¢.
> 
> Another scenario I've discussed with like minded people is the potential for Obama to make himself some kind of King or dictator. My guess is who ever wins the 2016 presidential election will , by Obama, be deemed unfit to lead the country. And he will make power moves to keep him in office. If that happens all hell will break loose.


I seriously doubt that Obama would want to stick around for a 3rd term.


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

Possible SHTF events... hum....
Massive economic collapse.... possible but probably at least a few years away if ever and it would be somewhat slow to occur, several months and more likely a year or three before it became a dollar is totally worthless event starting from the time of the stock and commodies markets crashing. Your not going to wake up next Tuesday, turn on the news, and discover that the dollar has no value. very slow process if it ever happens which it may in the future.

EMP or massive grid down event from solar flare... much more likely but still not my favorite possibility.

Huge bank money problems from hackers or massive grid down from hackers. Defiantly possible. 

Biological either wiping us out or making most of us stay home and starve or risk contagion and totally disrupting society. A stronger possibility and what I think most likely. 

Terrorist nuclear attack. probably some day but since there would probably only be one bomb as terrible as this sounds it would primarily be local event, not an end of society event.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

the worst possible scenario is I win the lotto.


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## Renec (Dec 21, 2012)

possibly bumping an old thread....
-WW 3 is in it's early stages and we are already involved.
-Attack on the Grid ...be it "terrorists" or foreign states. (grid attack would be most favorable..since most of us would not lose our electronics. EMP would be REALLY bad.)
- Total collapse of our economy due to no electricity 
-zombie apocalypse due to no power,food and water shortages. Yeah,you know the "zombies" I'm talking about,right?


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## gambit (Sep 14, 2015)

for myself its the past events I prep for really I say it before and say it again if it happen before it will happen again
solar flares
several fault lines here in the US but 4 major fault lines are to be really worried about are are over due the one in NY PA NJ have a 70 mile long and few that are in pacific and Atlantic oceans which are way over due as well 
attacks on grid which has happen
terrorist will attack again because the goofball in charge who can f**k up a wet dream and the PC people who kiss his A$$ need to be smacked with the ugly steel pipe "not stick" made it more easier for terrorist to do so again just on a bigger scale
our government is just to screwed up at the moment to keep us safe and sound
well now im blanked off its time to sniff peppermint and breathing exercise and shoot people on a video game


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## Farva (Aug 26, 2015)

Job Loss, Sickness. Or worse, Sickness leading to job loss. That is what will happen to all of us at one time or another along with a bad storm.

As far as the tin foil stuff, I can see the economy taking a bigger dump than it is. Which will lead to a personal economic crisis probably being job loss.

The rest of it, PAW stuff, ehhhh. Don't care. Being prepared to me would mean I have more time to figure out what to do. I am trying to be prepared now. The probable job loss prep will take me farther than anyone I personally know.


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## beach23bum (Jan 27, 2015)

financial meltdown


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## Plumbum (Feb 1, 2016)

Collapse of the global economy is probobly just a matter of time. What I find realy conserning is that nature is long overdue in correcting the over population of the world. The black death killed of 75-200 million ppl in the 14th century and the Spanic flu killed of 50-100 million in 20th, keep in mind that was without ppl flying all over the world and living in cities of 10-12 million ppl. Believing that science will solve any problem that comes along is just naive.


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

Plumbum said:


> Collapse of the global economy is probobly just a matter of time. What I find realy conserning is that nature is long overdue in correcting the over population of the world. The black death killed of 75-200 million ppl in the 14th century and the Spanic flu killed of 50-100 million in 20th, keep in mind that was without ppl flying all over the world and living in cities of 10-12 million ppl.* Believing that science will solve any problem that comes along is just naive*.


Or intentional..........


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## Preppersaurusrex (Jan 31, 2016)

Economic collapse leading to widespread violence and chaos. ( like Chicago just everywhere ) The unprepared will desperately look to the government for help, The wealthy will use their financial resources to remain safe and the gangs will loot and rape their way through the ghettos and head to the suburbs. Food , clean water and medical supplies will be scarce. Disease will run rampant and any pre-existing medical conditions will probably kill you. Or Zombies, I hope it's zombies.


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## SittingElf (Feb 9, 2016)

The next 60-days are CRITICAL regarding the global economies. There are a great number of factors and decisions that will be made in late Feb and into Mar. Those factors will either halt the decline, at least temporarily, or the Global Economy is going to collapse entirely. When it does, chaos will ensue worldwide. The streets of Europe will make the demonstrations of a couple of years ago in Greece look like child's play.

The Central Banks are making monumental decisions shortly. Even the US Fed is warning banks that they may see negative interest rates soon. The first warning may come in the next few days whey Yellen testifies to congress. Listen very closely.

Our enemies are not stupid. They will take any opportunity to exacerbate a crisis situation and create as much fear as they can. 

Then there is our president, who may be gloating in his office, hoping for civil unrest to a level that he can declare a State of National Emergency and assume dictatorial powers laid out in a plethora of Executive Orders.

I don't see major war, or outside attacks in the near term. Not necessary, because the Global Economy is already looking over a cliff.

My $0.02


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## GrumpyBiker (Nov 25, 2015)

No chicken little stuff on my radar.
A blizzard, ice storm or Tornados (once it warms up), knocking out power is the only *likely* issue I think is "Probable".
What's "Possibile" is a whole can of worms....
Open to all types of speculation and conjecture !
Not that I don't play the "what if" game or run scenarios thru my brain housing group.
But I don't sit and focus on maybes.


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## cobra246 (Nov 17, 2015)

In the early 1950's the USA was generating $2 per $1 of national debt it incured. After the defeat of veitnam we were only generating $0.50 per $2 of debt. In the late 2000s it was determinted by the IRS that we were only geberating $0.02 per $2 of national debt incurred. They predicted that when that ratio goes negative that the US Dollar will collapse and will cease to be the worlds backup currency. At that point the US will be forced to declare bankruptcy and will possibly attempt a bail-in like Greece. 

This could happen at anytime withing the next couple years. My SHTF contingency plan is pretty much just a localized survival attempt. Stocking up on dry goods and water, ammunition and weapons, tools and fossil fuels, and of course communication devices (even tho comms and the power grid will probably be down withing a week or so) and generators.


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## Free (Mar 13, 2016)

I'm not sure what will happen but I'm confident that a wide spread and long term power outage will not happen. A cyber attack, solar flare and terrorist shooting transformers are way way way down on my list of things happening. The reason I can say this with confidence is because I have 25 plus years in the electric utility industry with experience in transmission and generation controls, maintenance and cyber security. I've been through every hurricane since Andrew and numerous brown and blackouts. I won't go into a lot of details but there are a lot of things built into the system that people don't know and when I hear pundits on media saying outrageous things I just have to shake my head.


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## Moonshinedave (Mar 28, 2013)

rjd25 said:


> Just wondering if there is a consensus or trend on likely SHTF causes here. Post what you think could really bring the pain and why.


Hillary wins election, continuation of the Socialistic States of America, newly vamped surpreme court, along with liberal Democratics and rino republicans decide to modernize the constitution.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

More and more Civil unrest. The liberal /Socialist will not rest until they have destroyed this country at all any cost. Burn baby burn is their battle cry. The normal working class non protected class people in this country will only take it for so long . Then it will hit the fan.


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

Which one? It will be multiple scenarios. Be aware and prepare as best you can, and know it is inevitable.


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## SGT E (Feb 25, 2015)

There's a Crapload of Natural stuff that could happen...Earthquakes....San Andreas...New Madrid dropping bridges over the Mississippi....Yellowstone.....Tsunamis....Solar flares and Carrington events...You can only prep for these...all pretty much the same way...guns...ammo and food.

The BS going on with Russia...China....North Korea


Same thing....Guns ammo and food

Dumbass politicians and Liberals....Same Preps


Does it matter what happens?...Same preps needed no matter what.


Just Do It!

You can bet your ass one way or another one will happen in our lifetime or our kids....Too many on the list not to!


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

When was the last time a bunch of Republicans from around the country using union funds went to a democrat function and illegally disrupted it?
Seems Democrats do it all of the time . How many republican heroes are cop killers . Dem's have a lot of them.
I needed to talk with one of the reps from our company Union about a minor local issue. He was on leave for Union business. Turns out he was in
Chicago not Vegas. He was one they imported to disrupt Trump. I am no fan of Trump , but he has the same right to speak as anyone else.
Seems Democrats don't believe in free speech. You have to live with who you are.


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## Kelso (Mar 12, 2016)

Honestly I don't see an all out Walking Dead style Zombie Apocalypse coming. In my eyes I see what's happening in Venezuela happening here. Extreme inflation. Lines just to buy toilet paper. Empty grocery shelves. Which will lead to looting and riots for sure.


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## baldman (Apr 5, 2016)

Race war , and the u.n. on our soil.


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## That Bald White Guy (Apr 10, 2016)

In my opinion the most likely SHTF scenario in this country is the possibility of some type of breakdown or attack on our electrical grid. Possibly an EMP attack but more likely an attack on our electrical infrastructure through hacking or other means causing large rolling blackouts sort of like what we saw in California years ago.


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## ND_ponyexpress_ (Mar 20, 2016)

Funny thing is... If only one of there reasons happens to be right... then the rest were ready for it.. basically prepare for the unexpected and the expected is easier to deal with. If bugging out, prep for worst-case like an emp and having to walk.. then if you can drive, you are ahead of your own curve!


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## cobra246 (Nov 17, 2015)

Essentially prep for the worst, hope for the best, and come what may.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G890A using Tapatalk


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## randy grider (Nov 2, 2012)

I would think economic collapse, but natural disasters happen more frequently, just not as widespread . (usually just a small area, where economic collapse is nation or even world wide.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

S is really going to hit the fan when all the attacks on the constitution the liberals now support , back fire on them.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

I would say civil unrest and break down possibly shortly after a major cataclysm like yellow stone or possibly a whole bunch of little local major cataclysms spread out across the country or world.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Some economic problems brought on by no money left to pay off the entitlement crowd will be the Spark. That will Fuel Political/social unrest groups like aclu, black panthers, BLM. many of the Latino groups will jump in seeking power from it. Lack of money to pay them off and LE numbers and unwillingness to stop it will allow it to go to far one of these times. Nothing new. It has happened before. We passed out a lot of cash to quiet it down for a while. As I said before it will pass the point of no return when the liberal/socialist lose control of their own agenda. Then they will turn on each other. 
Yall in the city good luck.


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## csi-tech (Apr 13, 2013)

If I show up at any of your doors after July of next year claiming to be a cop, shoot me! I will have either just retired and be lying to get your coolest preps or I was stupid and didn't retire. Either way, puff me.


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## Ranga14 (Oct 2, 2014)

Civil unrest of some sort caused by political upheaval and/or the dollar collapsing.

...and... CME, just cause.


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## hag (May 19, 2016)

Some criminal thug will resist arrest and wind up getting shot and black lives matter will declare war on everyone with a shirtless al sharpton leading the charge on a white horse


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## Ranga14 (Oct 2, 2014)

hag said:


> Some criminal thug will resist arrest and wind up getting shot and black lives matter will declare war on everyone with a shirtless al sharpton leading the charge on a white horse


A white horse? That's racist!


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## Ronaldinyo (May 12, 2016)

I'll tell ya what I didn't expect. 

I never even considered a labor strike leading to TSHTF! 

All eyes on France...Labor strikes causing gas shortages, which are causing problems with food delivery & trains have stopped running...tourists stranded & nuclear plants are about to be shut down. 

Interesting developments.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

no one working nothing gets done-what did you think the magic twinkle bunny wiggles it's nose and shazam everyone can take a year off on vacation.


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## hag (May 19, 2016)

Ranga14 said:


> A white horse? That's racist!


It's the metaphor the "reverend" will use to show he now has authority


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## cobra246 (Nov 17, 2015)

hag said:


> It's the metaphor the "reverend" will use to show he now has authority


I was thinking more a black horse...you know cuz im white and therefore racist.

Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk


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## luminaughty (Dec 16, 2014)

Reading posts that poke fun of real threats to America and our children's future only further convinces me that many people don't care and in many cases deserve the hardships that will follow. To say America is at a tipping point is optimistic. The reality is America is already past the tipping point. Weather you consider yourself a prepper, a survivalist, or a patriot you have to be serious (cut out the zombie and alien invasion bs) if you expect others to listen to your concerns and prepare accordingly. My personal belief is enough damage has already been done through the erosion of our rights, lawlessness of state and federal government officials, unsustainable debt, and unsecured borders that an nation changing event is inevitable no mater who the next president is or what a few honest government officials try to do to stop it. Many talk as though our government is incompetent and makes bad decisions without knowing the long term consequences of their actions. I personally think they know exactly what they are doing and exactly what the long term effects of their lawlessness will be. As far as what I see unfolding in our NEAR future are one or more of the many real threats we are facing. It could be an EMP or another major (Islamic) terrorist attack or just a collapse of our (fiat) currency but make no mistake our government will have full knowledge of the event before it happens and will likely be co conspirators in the plan. After the event many think the government will usher in martial law and try to disarms the population. I think the government will let anarchy set in and let people kill off each other weakening resistance to their totalitarian rule. In many ways our government has already created the divisions amongst the people. They have created division between blacks and whites, police and citizens, illegals and citizens, liberals and conservatives, and Christians and non Christians. Only when the people have weakened themselves through division and war will our newfound dictatorship step in with the assistance of FORIEGN military to attempt a complete takeover. From what I understand there are certain things that must come to pass before God returns. Close to the end time we will have a one world government or as our politicians refer to it "a new world order" We have the European union and the Asian union. The north American union is the last piece of the puzzle and consists of U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Soon after the north American union is established a centralized WORLD government will be instituted. There will be no more U.S. Constitution or Bill of Rights and a new world currency will be issued. I don't know for sure if it will be a printed or coined or completely digital since the digital currency would give the new world government more control over the people. The choice for those who survive the initial anarchy will be clear. Resist or live as a slave.


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## luminaughty (Dec 16, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I would discuss my biblical views on whats to come but apparently there are members of this forum that can not tolerate the chance there could be biblical debate


Nothing wrong with putting out a biblical perspective. America was founded as a Christian nation. I believe America was blessed but after decades of allowing our government and a small minority distance America from its Christian beginning we are no longer a blessed nation. That's why we see an increase in natural disasters, economic hardships, terrorist attacks, drug epidemics, increased crime, and selfish people with little or no morals and values.


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

luminaughty said:


> Nothing wrong with putting out a biblical perspective. America was founded as a Christian nation. I believe America was blessed but after decades of allowing our government and a small minority distance America from its Christian beginning we are no longer a blessed nation. That's why we see an increase in natural disasters, economic hardships, terrorist attacks, drug epidemics, increased crime, and selfish people with little or no morals and values.


Amen Brother! Preach on. I am about one hundred percent convinced the current Pope is the False Prophet as mentioned in the Good Book. Pretty sure Obummer is the Antichrist aka Beast. He meets all the criteria right down to being a ****.


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## Ronaldinyo (May 12, 2016)

I have no problem with biblical views...Count me in!

I don't think there could be a clearer message than in 2nd Timothy 3...Does this sound familiar?



> 1 But mark this: There will be terrible times in the last days.
> 2 People will be lovers of themselves, lovers of money, boastful, proud, abusive, disobedient to their parents, ungrateful, unholy,
> 3 without love, unforgiving, slanderous, without self-control, brutal, not lovers of the good, 4 treacherous, rash, conceited, lovers of pleasure rather than lovers of God-
> 5 having a form of godliness but denying its power. Have nothing to do with such people.
> ...


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## FLPrepper (Jun 6, 2016)

There are only two ways to get out of debt this large: default or hyperinflation. Default is not an option, so keep accumulating guns, ammo and other hard assets like precious metals.


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## prepperman (May 21, 2016)

We are already in the midst of a crisis, but some are not willing to acknowledge it for fear of the sheer panic it is most definitely going to bring about. We are masking a financial crisis that is already in motion. The scales have tipped and there's no coming back. It's just a matter of time when we feel the reaction to it. So prepare now, it's on its way. There's always a "balancing" out as a result of this type of crisis, but it will be interesting to see how that plays out.


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## FLPrepper (Jun 6, 2016)

$19 trillion!!! Just think about this for a second. Even if we could find our way to a modest $190 billion annual surplus it would take 100 years to pay the debt off in full. My grave fear is when interest rates finally start inching higher we won't be able to roll over our positions without getting dinged for higher debt service. It only takes small incremental interest rate bumps to cause the percentage of the budget to increase significantly. So, as fewer and fewer investors show interest in our debt it will become even more expensive for us to borrow more. It is a vicious circle that, I feel, can only result in hyperinflation.

Let's not forget about our unfunded liabilities: Estimated unfunded liabilities exceed $100 trillion between, Medicare, Social Security and the Prescription Drug Program. This type of budget imbalance can only result in bad things for all of us.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Muzzy's start small killing Americans her and there , then they keep upping the game until all hell breaks lose. It will be a collection of events some brought on intentionally .


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## That Bald White Guy (Apr 10, 2016)

rjd25 said:


> Just wondering if there is a consensus or trend on likely SHTF causes here. Post what you think could really bring the pain and why.


In my opinion most likely major region or entire country SHTF scenario would be rolling blackouts on a level that makes the California blackouts look like a rehearsal.Why, obviously outdated grid & our enemies have shown plenty of will to do so.


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## Fuser1983 (Jul 8, 2016)

If I had joined and replied to this thread two years ago when it started, my answer would've been different. However, given today's reality, the most likely scenarios in my opinion are the following:

- Economic Collapse
- EMP attack
- Muslim infiltration through "refugees" 
- Martial law declared due to unrelenting civil unrest (which Obama is doing a great job of making happen)
- Lastly, more far-fetched but not ruling it out, all out war and invasion by Russia/China/N.Korea.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Slippy said:


> I've been preparing for the end of the world as we know it due to the DUMBASSIFICATION OF THE PEOPLE WHO INHABIT SAID WORLD.
> 
> Thanks


I stand by my earlier prediction. :vs_wave:


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## Operator6 (Oct 29, 2015)

Natural or man made disaster here. Hurricane/chemical plant explosion. 

People rioting.....I have that one covered. I hope a mob doesn't ever block the roadway and become threatening. Idiot vs car = ran over idiot.


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## chemikle (Feb 16, 2015)

In my case , Russia invading my country....


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

chemikle said:


> In my case , Russia invading my country....


That is a real possibility but until Russia's oil economy improves I'd suspect you're safe for a while.


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## Gypsywitch (Aug 31, 2016)

Ok, there are so many possible scenarios that could be potentially hazardous, but one in particularly bad for the United States- a High altitude EMP. Lately I've been reading a lot of post apocalyptic fiction, and three main scenarios play out very well- infections (ZOMBIES!!cool!), ones regarding worldwide organic destruction (think no living plant life-at all! Cool premise), and of course HEMP, easily the most realistic and devastating. Then i began to truly research EMPs, because surely, we are protected to some degree, right? I mean, hell, I've had a faraday cage since 2011! So surely our esteemed government has taken care of the electric grid, right? Not so much.. In fact, DOD has some th hardened, Norad, began to work on their end of things last year (still not completed), but as far as the most critical of infrastructures? Not so much.. but then, who would be crazy enough to use an EMP on the US? North Korea, Iran, Syria, China.. and they are ALL capable..


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## 1775Firearms (Aug 16, 2016)

I would say that he most likely SHTF scenario would be the collapse of structures government in the United States. It seems that the political climate is one of distrust and comedy versus anything that people can truly rally behind. As the country continues to ignore problems and instead be focused by media stories on non essential issues , there could very possible end us in a collapse of government due to revolt .


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## Targetshooter (Dec 4, 2015)

If it wasn't for these programs the disabled would not be able to live " I am one of them " , the program needs to be thinned out and only given to the people that really need them and not to the people that are lazy and do not want to work . 45% of the people that are on disability can work in some way , it should be for the people that are 100% disabled .


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## phrogman (Apr 17, 2014)

Earthquake is the most likely scenario for me. After that it would be civil unrest.


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## SittingElf (Feb 9, 2016)

It's already SHTF, and the cause is......Hillary!


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## SDF880 (Mar 28, 2013)

Too many possibilities right now! One might be that nut case leader in North Korea might be having another bad hair day
and off his meds and decides to launch one of his bottlerockets on S Korea. This time he launches one with a small NEWK
and random chance this one doesn't fail. The N keeps working on weapons and one of these days one of them just might work!


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## BellaCassels (Feb 16, 2017)

To me the most likely is failure of our quite fragile infrastructure, one way or another. Most people don't realize just how little protection there is of our electrical grid and communications network for one thing. There are hubs that can fail and put millions out of power/communication, and it wouldn't be hard for it to happen, maybe through terrorism. This would probably cause a cascading situation with civil unrest and failure of critical food/water infrastructure - water treatment facilities would fail and the water would be unsafe VERY quickly, grocery stores would lose power and the food would spoil - most are prepared for this though with the dry foods we all have stored I hope 

Of course, maybe the most dangerous in this kind of situation would be the mobs of hungry, thirsty people... You can live 30 days without food, 3 days without water, 3 hours without heat, 3 minutes without oxygen, but only 3 seconds without security (if that)!


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## Redwood Country (May 22, 2017)

There is always going to be some sort of localized emergency that shuts things down for a few days maybe a week or two, tornado, hurricane, earthquake, even localized terrorist attacks, bombs, riots etc. All of these things are good to be prepared for when that particular shit hits the fan. But, to your question, what is going to be the “big oh-shit moment” that brings it all down? If I had to guess, I would say that it isn’t going to be financial. While that could be painful and a complete pain in the ass, if that is all it is, a “money” thing it will work itself out like most short term emergencies because the douchebags with all of the money want to keep making money and they need everyone that can play to be on board to continue the regular screwing of all of us to make more money. There is no money in the end of the game for them. For total SHTF scenario… I would go 1, 2, 3 in this order…

1: Asteroids. We are all just skin dust flying through this thing called life on a small blue marble whizzing through the chaos that is outer space and to think that we are all bullet proof with all of that crap flying around out there is just silly. Things that no one saw coming come flying past us all the time. There is no defense from something like that and with the right set of flying rocks headed in our direction the result would be catastrophic. Your only hope would be not to be in the direct or near direct impact zone.

2: Pandemic. As we keep testing the bounds at a molecular level it is only a matter of time before something is accidentally released into the heard that there is no answer for. The only answer will be to isolate and hunker down and wait for it to die.

3: Nukes. I didn’t used to worry about this as much but with the child sociopath in charge of North Korea and with Trumps “no nonsense” attitude towards him, it could create the right set of circumstances to have a first and second strike before all hell is unleashed.

Just my opinion and you know what they say about opinions…


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## The Tourist (Jun 9, 2016)

For me, it's the emotional aspect of discord, change and fear.

Sure it might be a financial collapse, or a race war, or even martial law. But none of it will be good.


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## Winston Smith (Oct 21, 2017)

Funny. This thread was started three years ago. And still nothing.
The Ostriches with their heads in the sand are gloating. 2012 passed. No Zombie or Mayan Apocalypse. Yawn...

But wait! You hear that?

Nope. Neither do I. You don't hear it coming. You won't see it. But it will.
Society is more fragile and fractured than ever before. The world is a giant house of cards. It won't have to be a big push for the collapse to rain down on us. Just a nudge.

Maybe a series of cyclones in the Indian Ocean cause a famine. Desperate, starving, Pakistan and India trade nukes. China joins in. The skies darken, and a Nuclear Winter starves the entire Northern Hemisphere.
Or, a pandemic could crash global trade. Martial Law and curfew imposed. You're stuck in your home for weeks under quarantine. Months, maybe. You'll be shot if you venture out. How's your pantry?
Perhaps an asymmetrical cyber attack is launched by one of our adversaries. Instantly, no power or transportation. Panicked mobs take to the streets. The gun shots get closer, closer...

There are too many scenarios to fathom. You can't "prep" for any one of them. You simply need to ask yourself:
"What will I need to do to survive?" 
Think about that. Then, go do something.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Lot's of balls in the air. One is bound to hit the ground sooner or later. I fear sooner.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

While I pray nothing happens, I'm not daft. I know it will happen sooner or later. Maybe it won't be 
nation killing or continent killing. Maybe it'll just destroy an island. BUT it will happen. If I'm lucky, 
I'll be long gone. But hoping for that makes me worry about my grandson. Who will be there to teach him.


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## maine_rm (Jun 24, 2017)

I dream of one day being so independent as to not notice if something were to happen for at least a month Life is too important to be so wrapped up in each other. nation to nation state to state! I say give me liberty or give me death! you need to connect with yourself and worry about our own “tribe”


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

NORKs pop a can of sunshine over Puget Sound or Port of Long Beach and We retaliate ( With China's Blessing)


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Looking at current events. Civil unrest gone to far would be one. Natural weather related events would be another. Both require a lot of the same preps.


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## SGT E (Feb 25, 2015)

KIM JONG UN...Or AKA Rocket Man announced today that he would be putting more satellites in orbit soon....Since his first one was a dud...so we think...and the second not much better...both cross the center of the Continental USA several times a day at the perfect altitude for example...an EMP !

Read between those lines!

I just hope some dipstick with the current administration questions this!

North Korea seeks to develop space program, vows to launch more satellites | Fox News


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

I can not do much about Nukes falling the back 40. Not even going to try. World flips upside down , it is over. I prep now as we always have. Security defend what is ours and help others we can. To stand on our own, if life as we know is disrupted either for a short time of generations to come.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Pandemic.


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

Solar event


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## OSC (Oct 21, 2017)

Natural disasters are always on top of the list. 
They affect regions. The problem is that when a locality like Hub City to use an imaginary place makes a MOU/AOU (Memo/Agreement of understanding) for support, they almost always do it with a neighboring entity and a hurricane, flood, fire, earthquake, or zombie apocalypse will affect both towns the same more or less.

Manmade catastrophes are really far down the list. 

For preppers, you need an "all hazards" plan. In any scenario, you'll need food, water, and some form of shelter. Always prep for those 3--duh! I would add a fourth; re-integration into your lifestyle. If you have nothing but cash and gold bullion laying around this wont' apply to you but if you have a car payment, bank accounts, a mortgage, etc... you really need to have the data on your end to access and re-acquire those assets. Your car gets washed away in a flood or Tsunami...you will likely need to know the VIN. Your insurance company may have it but if it gets washed away too??? Don't rely on them. Have it on a thumb drive in your BOB in the form of pictures of your VIN plate and on MS Notepad/Wordpad. A computer after the event may not have Word/Pages or whatever. It will have notepad/wordpad.


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

Since we are in a rural area with little earthquake, forest fire, or hurricane potential a pandemic or NK nuke would be most likely.

Not that a nuke would land in this area but either EMP effect or radioactive fallout would be the greatest concern.
In this time of high speed worldwide travel a pandemic could spread like wildfire.


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

Rural = Close to Yellowstone Caldera or close to Flood Plain ? (And Tornado)


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

I know if NK or anyone else lands a nuke near us it will prove their missiles suck, because they missed by a long ways what ever they were aiming for. Civil unrest goes way over the top in major cities we will have time to prepare for any hoards coming this way.


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## Sherpa Bill (Dec 11, 2017)

EMP false flag after a dollar collapse. All results in a nuclear war. Nobody wins (as usual).


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Sherpa Bill said:


> EMP false flag after a dollar collapse. All results in a nuclear war. Nobody wins (as usual).


Could be, sure.

Hi Sherpa Bill,

How about you tell us a bit about yourself over in the Welcome section? 
Introductory posts are always a good idea. :vs_closedeyes:


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

A series of successful attacks ( AMTRAC train derailment at a deep chasm crossing )(Explosives ladened Limo at main terminal of Atlanta Airport ) ( houseboat holding a small Thermonuclear device detonated next to an important Dam) ( Interstate highway/Main Rail bridge over a lake brought down ) ...


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

sargedog said:


> It doesn't have to be a global thing. For me and my wife this was ours, in Feb. 2011 she lost her job due to cutbacks off senior people. In March 2011 I almost died to pulminary Emboli. With neither of us working that meant NO money, thankfully we had a certain amount of money to fall back in savings. When that was gone is when things got tight. We lived on the food we had stored for 2 years. We are finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and it's not a train. You never know what will happen in life, you just have to figure it out as you go. We may not see a global problem in our lifetime, but we definitely saw a personal one. All you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best. God will take care of the rest.


Good for you sarge, I will pray your light continues to shine brighter.


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

Sherpa Bill said:


> EMP false flag after a dollar collapse. All results in a nuclear war. Nobody wins (as usual).





MountainGirl said:


> Could be, sure.
> 
> Hi Sherpa Bill,
> 
> ...


Not to sure here .....never heard of a Sherpa named Bill, huh?


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

Gator Monroe said:


> A series of successful attacks ( AMTRAC train derailment at a deep chasm crossing )(Explosives ladened Limo at main terminal of Atlanta Airport ) ( houseboat holding a small Thermonuclear device detonated next to an important Dam) ( Interstate highway/Main Rail bridge over a lake brought down ) ...


I mention Atlanta Airport and an AMTRAK Train Derailment in this post ... (And I mentioned these in past in several past posts together also )


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## Stockton (Jun 21, 2017)

Just what if the fires, the accident in Washington and the airport
issue were terrorists? What if they continue until our system just
breaks. The markets are so peaked that I'm guessing their collapse
would make 1920's look mild. I think our government knows these
are attacks and are denying the terrorist their credit. I live not too
far from the Nor Cal fires and they are trying to blame the public 
utility? I don't know why except that its a way to cast blame and
let our government pay for it. Our government would pay for it any
way. How does a public utility start 7 fires in 3 hours one night? 
No thunder or lightening either.


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## cobra246 (Nov 17, 2015)

Stockton said:


> Just what if the fires, the accident in Washington and the airport
> issue were terrorists? What if they continue until our system just
> breaks. The markets are so peaked that I'm guessing their collapse
> would make 1920's look mild. I think our government knows these
> ...


Direct energy weapons testing started the fires perhaps?

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk


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## Illini Warrior (Jan 24, 2015)

Gator Monroe said:


> A series of successful attacks ( AMTRAC train derailment at a deep chasm crossing )(Explosives ladened Limo at main terminal of Atlanta Airport ) ( houseboat holding a small Thermonuclear device detonated next to an important Dam) ( Interstate highway/Main Rail bridge over a lake brought down ) ...


don't know if any of these recent incidents are terrorism - but they certainly are what you can expect from a 1st squad terrorist team - AND MORE ... actual assaults on the airport terminals pushing thru to the loaded jets on the tarmacs ....

trains are a particular attraction to the terrorists in Europe .... new Clint Eastwood movie production coming out about the 3 US military that stopped the Euro train attack a few years ago - won't be any PC crap in that movie .....


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## Stockton (Jun 21, 2017)

cobra246 said:


> Direct energy weapons testing started the fires perhaps?
> 
> Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk


It does not have to be that elaborate. In fact they real conspiracy theory I'm
reading about the current So Cal fires is that it was the homeless. Now how
hard would it be for a terrorist cell to look like a homeless camp? Why? How
better to drive a wedge between left and right. Left thinks homeless should be
given your home, and right is tired of paying for them.

Remember Russia's intent on meddling in our elections was to destabilize our 
democracy. If terrorists have picked up on that what better way then drive
the wedge between left and right? You could even see them posting idiocy's
on a forum to do the same.


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

Stockton said:


> It does not have to be that elaborate. In fact they real conspiracy theory I'm
> reading about the current So Cal fires is that it was the homeless. Now how
> hard would it be for a terrorist cell to look like a homeless camp? Why? How
> better to drive a wedge between left and right. Left thinks homeless should be
> ...


No conspiracy about the fires, it was the homeless. At least the one in Bel Air has been confirmed to have been started by a homeless camp fire. Yet, even though they know it was the homeless, no city agency or residents want to do anything about it.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Sasquatch said:


> No conspiracy about the fires, it was the homeless. At least the one in Bel Air has been confirmed to have been started by a homeless camp fire. Yet, even though they know it was the homeless, no city agency or residents want to do anything about it.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk


Pfft. YouTube knows the truth. The fires were started by airborne laser weapons.


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## LONE WOLF (Dec 12, 2014)

Denton said:


> Pfft. YouTube knows the truth. The fires were started by airborne laser weapons.


The melted engine blocks and car wheels are most certainly something you have to ponder on.


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

I would say a volcano euroption in Iceland might case a lot of shit globally. 

Why is that? Because they have big and small volcanoes under glaciers, that makes a lot of smoke. in the past this has caused dropping temperatures globally and starvation and shit like that. 

And they are warning that this will happen soon, most likley.


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

Swedishsocialist said:


> I would say a volcano euroption in Iceland might case a lot of shit globally.
> 
> Why is that? Because they have big and small volcanoes under glaciers, that makes a lot of smoke. in the past this has caused dropping temperatures globally and starvation and shit like that.
> 
> And they are warning that this will happen soon, most likley.


There have many eruptions of Volcanos in Iceland and Alaska & various other parts of almost every hemisphere in the world over last few hundred years ...


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

Gator Monroe said:


> There have many eruptions of Volcanos in Iceland and Alaska & various other parts of almost every hemisphere in the world over last few hundred years ...


yes, and some of them had have major impacts, last time the missisippy froze all the way to the mexian gulf (around 1775, caused prblems globally and revolutions in france and some british colonies somewere...)

Ask yourself, is people today able to deal with such cold weather as they were back then?


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

Swedishsocialist said:


> yes, and some of them had have major impacts, last time the missisippy froze all the way to the mexian gulf (around 1775, caused prblems globally and revolutions in france and some british colonies somewere...)
> 
> Ask yourself, is people today able to deal with such cold weather as they were back then?


The Coming Ice Age is not what Climate Change / Global Warming folks like to think about ?


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## cobra246 (Nov 17, 2015)

Swedishsocialist said:


> yes, and some of them had have major impacts, last time the missisippy froze all the way to the mexian gulf (around 1775, caused prblems globally and revolutions in france and some british colonies somewere...)
> 
> Ask yourself, is people today able to deal with such cold weather as they were back then?


I cant deal with that kind of cold regularly...i'll move to the equator where its warm year around if that shit happens.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

cobra246 said:


> I cant deal with that kind of cold regularly...i'll move to the equator where its warm year around if that shit happens.
> 
> Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk


if you can choose to move, it aint really SHTF


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

When Jacksonville Florida gets 2 feet of Snow and Redding California ( Southern Cascades) gets 120 degree summer temps I will take notice ...


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

Here is some facts about the biggest threat, the vulcano Katla, no comforting read, the threat is clear and present and major.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla_(volcano)


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

If I had to bet right now, given all the chess pieces being moved around the world, I would say war is the most likely immediate threat. The more people tell you it can't happen, the more you should be worried. Are there others? You bet. I'll keep buying bullets, beans, and rice.


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## Stockton (Jun 21, 2017)

Swedishsocialist said:


> Here is some facts about the biggest threat, the vulcano Katla, no comforting read, the threat is clear and present and major.
> 
> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katla_(volcano)


How does this threaten our way of life?
I don't see that on the wiki page. I'm not in
Iceland, don't fly to Europe, and don't know
how it would impact us more than any other
volcanic eruption?


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

Stockton said:


> How does this threaten our way of life?
> I don't see that on the wiki page. I'm not in
> Iceland, don't fly to Europe, and don't know
> how it would impact us more than any other
> volcanic eruption?


because it is located under a glacier. That means a lot more smoke and ashes, (and locally, poisionus air). that cools the entier world, reduces crops. When the minor volcano Eyjafjallajökull had an eruption some years back (2010) it shut down airtravel in most of europe because the ashes destroys they airplains engines. As I understand it, if Katla has a major eruption there will be no jets flying in the northern hemisfere for some years. That would be a major deal alone, in my opinion.


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## Stockton (Jun 21, 2017)

Swedishsocialist said:


> because it is located under a glacier. That means a lot more smoke and ashes, (and locally, poisionus air). that cools the entier world, reduces crops. When the minor volcano Eyjafjallajökull had an eruption some years back (2010) it shut down airtravel in most of europe because the ashes destroys they airplains engines. As I understand it, if Katla has a major eruption there will be no jets flying in the northern hemisfere for some years. That would be a major deal alone, in my opinion.


I don't know how air travel or lack of will impact
us in the Western United States? I just don't see
how it impacts us other than those who'd like to 
visit Northern Europe won't. We, in this part of the
US, export more food then we eat. We would 
probably benefit from higher prices if there were 
food shortages - as sick as that is to some. 
This just didn't seem like the SHTF event your post
on it suggested. At least to me.


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## Kirosana (Dec 17, 2017)

Honest thought, nuclear war/WW3.

With the war of the words and constant threats going on between America and North Korea its only a matter of time until one of the leaders goes that one step too far and the other reacts without thinking first.

Russia and China would then jump in, closely followed by the rest of the world.


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

Stockton said:


> I don't know how air travel or lack of will impact
> us in the Western United States? I just don't see
> how it impacts us other than those who'd like to
> visit Northern Europe won't. We, in this part of the
> ...


oh well, that depends on how bad the eruption will be, and what the hungry masses will do. And I include the entire USA in the northern hemisfere. No military or commerical jets for some years in worst case, and really cold winters and cold summers. How much that effects the general society is hard to say.


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## Stockton (Jun 21, 2017)

Kirosana said:


> Honest thought, nuclear war/WW3.
> 
> With the war of the words and constant threats going on between America and North Korea its only a matter of time until one of the leaders goes that one step too far and the other reacts without thinking first.
> 
> Russia and China would then jump in, closely followed by the rest of the world.


--

On this I see tragedy in the United States and obliteration for North Korea.


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## Gator Monroe (Jul 29, 2017)

I see American Citizens ( Militia ) en vogue again ...


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