# Coronavirus Reality Check.



## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.

Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.
State and local governments are ordering lockdowns. Businesses are closed, people are out of work.
And, straight out of The Twilight Zone, some Democrat mayors are releasing criminals into the streets.

This is absolutely, totally, asinine and absurd.

I have better things to do than waste time worrying about this made up "pandemic".
And I'm glad both of my parents are dead so they can't see how sissified their country has become.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.
> ...


 This is what some of us having been trying to say. Yes it is a concern, yes we need to deal with it . It is not what they are trying to make it out to be. Also most if not all that die from it have condition that weaken them.


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## modfan (Feb 18, 2016)

Did you look at the chance of dieing in Italy or Spain. I ran the numbers Italy was 10% and Spain was 7%. Do you trust your governments numbers?


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

modfan said:


> Did you look at the chance of dieing in Italy or Spain. I ran the numbers Italy was 10% and Spain was 7%. Do you trust your governments numbers?


 Both those countries are filthy places compared to US and healthcare not as great as they claim .


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

In both of those countries the health care system is overwhelmed. If we allow our system to become overwhelmed, we will be experiencing much higher mortality rates.


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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

Smitty901 said:


> This is what some of us having been trying to say. Yes it is a concern, yes we need to deal with it . It is not what they are trying to make it out to be. Also most if not all that die from it have condition that weaken them.


I very much suspect that there are people on the "dead" list that did not die because of the coronavirus. Just a feeling.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

A couple of points to ponder;

Yes, Ol' @rice paddy daddy is correct.

Spain and Italy are full of socialists idiots. Lazy, corrupt liars socialist in nature and they filtrate both their government and their citizenry. Look deep into the news and you'll find that the Italians over stated the number of Chicom Flu cases as well as deaths. Don't know if Spain did the same thing, will check into it.

FUBAR


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.
> ...


OK, to give some perspective... 
you can not calculate mortality rate based on numbers they way you are doing them. More people are getting the disease then recovering... those 65,564 case you mention - some are day 1 other are day 5 some day 14... we do not know how many of the current case will die..

the morbidity rate for this virus is HIGH... it is very very infectious. The mortality rate varies.. but it sure is not .014%....

the way you are trying to do the math is wrong... you can not take the current case and KNOW the rate.. why, because some of them are on day 1 others day 5. You can only KNOW the rate if you know the dead versus recovered...

If you expose 100 people to extreme level of radiation and 1 dies day one.. you should not assume the death rate is 1%...









I do not advocate worry.. I do advocate for reality... this virus is going to be a game changer for our economy and unless we can hold off the peak until we are ready... this is kill a lot of people...mostly older people

this is no made up pandemic my friend - this is flu on steroids with a arsenic kicker


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Here's a site that will help put things in perspective.

https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

Overall, deadlier than the flu. More contagious than the flu.

Here's a reality check; a cavalier attitude can get you infected. Even if you have no symptoms at all, you can pass it to others. They or those they unwittingly infect might die. You probably won't ever know that you killed others and that'll allow you to continue being nonchalant about it. What if there were some way to confront you with the deaths, though? How would you feel, then?


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Denton said:


> Even if you have no symptoms at all, you can pass it to others. They or those they unwittingly infect might die. You probably won't ever know that you killed others and that'll allow you to continue being nonchalant about it.


*exactly THIS*


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## csi-tech (Apr 13, 2013)

I take it seriously because my wife and I are "essential employees". We have to work and I am blessed to do so. If we get it, we get it. We will take it one day at a time.


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## Alteredstate (Jul 7, 2016)

The 15 days to flatten the curve announced on March 16th we are now 10 days into the 16. all of the curve charts for every state and the US combined are still vertical. With cases doubling roughly every 3 days. 

It depends on your consideration as to what is worth while. We are on a path right now, that can not be altered to 500,000 plus to 3M deaths.

That seams important.

Even using your percentage of, "that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this" at 50% infection rate that is 2,314,000 deaths by June.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

Alteredstate said:


> The 15 days to flatten the curve announced on March 16th we are now 10 days into the 16. all of the curve charts for every state and the US combined are still vertical. With cases doubling roughly every 3 days.
> 
> It depends on your consideration as to what is worth while. We are on a path right now, that can not be altered to 500,000 plus to 3M deaths.
> 
> ...


Nope. I'm not buying that many deaths.
And I'm not worried, either.
None of the vets I know personally are, either.
Maybe we just have a fatalistic attitude, I don't know.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rice paddy daddy said:


> Nope. I'm not buying that many deaths.
> And I'm not worried, either.
> None of the vets I know personally are, either.
> Maybe we just have a fatalistic attitude, I don't know.


This vet is concerned. So is my father. So are those at work.

Worried isn't the word that we use. Aware and taking appropriate action is more like it.


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## Alteredstate (Jul 7, 2016)

Time will show the numbers,

I also do not believe the deaths will reach millions, 

If I was at the table I would lay money on 150,000

I will not be daring and place my family in un necessary risk to a completely un known, and we are taking precautions.

The medical system is over whelmed, if you are one of the 15% of infected who need medical care, being locked in a gymnasium, with 200 dying people for 20 days with no visitors does not look inviting.


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Good thing this 'curve' everyone wants to flatten doesn't have mass; diminished height would just extend duration. 
Not like it's going away anyway.


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## Bigfoot63 (Aug 11, 2016)

I feel certain that the governments of the world have and will continue to lie about this virus in one way or another. They can't afford to go full disclosure! What bothers me most is the Democrats talking about a piece of legislature that will save everyone... No specifics but once passed the virus will go away. Sounds like the virus is afraid of legal papers. Makes about as much sense as a screen door on a submarine. JMO


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

MountainGirl said:


> Good thing this 'curve' everyone wants to flatten doesn't have mass; diminished height would just extend duration.
> Not like it's going away anyway.


That's what I was wondering.

Let's say you hunker down for three weeks. What, then?


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Denton said:


> That's what I was wondering.
> 
> Let's say you hunker down for three weeks. What, then?


Then you go back out into the community, with everyone else that's coming back out, and catch the crud from someone who caught it recently and was asymptomatic, and then you share it with everyone else as they share it with everyone else and only a few get symptoms but of course that's only the flu because this three week lockdown destroyed ALL the CoVid. Right?

Right.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

MountainGirl said:


> Then you go back out into the community, with everyone else that's coming back out, and catch the crud from someone who caught it recently and was asymptomatic, and then you share it with everyone else as they share it with everyone else and only a few get symptoms but of course that's only the flu because this three week lockdown destroyed ALL the CoVid. Right?
> 
> Right.


Right. If not all, then nothing. Anything else is just to slow it so that the hospitals can keep up.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.
> ...


I always find a graphical interpretation is easier to understand.

Have a look here:

https://www.nytimes.com./interactive/2020/03/21/us/coronavirus-us-cases-spread.html

The fear is from the speed of the rate of transmission. 
The disease is not pleasant. The outcome is fatal for about 1 in 20 of those that get it weighted towards to old and infirm. It leaves permanent lung changes. It takes about 2-3 weeks to get better. Research shows that most people get it without signs or symptoms. What worries people is the numbers of people getting it at the same time are overwhelming the medical system and people who should have survived, aren't.

On 5th March, in the US, you had a 1 in 370 000 000 chance of having it and showing signs and symptoms. 0% chance of dying. 
As I type this, hours after you did, your figure of 0.014% for infection has risen to 0.018%
That's a 13% bigger number. 
Your chance of dying from this has risen to 0.0028%. There is no cure. There is no vaccine. If you have a bad case of this, oxygen and a ventilator will keep you from drowning in your own body fluids. There is a finite number of those. Victims tie those machines up for about 10 days each.

A comparison could be made with the Vietnam war. 
That war lasted 21 years (1954-75). 57,939 members of U.S. armed forces died or were missing as a result of the war. (Over the following years, additions to the list have brought the total past 58,200). An average of 2771 a year or 7.6 a day. 
150 000 were wounded and recovered. 
An average of 7142 a year or 19.56 a day. 
This virus has killed 1032 Americans in 20 days. An average of 51.6 a day, over 2 per hour. It's caused illness in 68,489. An average of 3424 a day, 142.7 an hour. 
You can't see this enemy. You don't know you have been attacked until 5-12 days afterwards. In the meantime you are spreading the disease amongst your family and friends. You become the enemy. 
The Vietnam war was terrible. 58,200 lost their lives. Imagine the outcry if that had happened in the first month. Would the US have nuked the Vietnamese jungle?

The amount of people getting sick at the same time will crash the economy. This is Spanish flu AND the Great Depression at the same time.

I do believe, my dear @RicePaddyDaddy, you just don't quite see the big picture at the moment.

All those years of prepping are about to come in use.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> Both those countries are filthy places compared to US and healthcare not as great as they claim .


Tell me. Have you been there?
I've been to the US, Italy and Spain. 
I'd say all three are equally clean. The healthcare is much much better in Spain and Italy. For a start, it's free.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

MountainGirl said:


> Then you go back out into the community, with everyone else that's coming back out, and catch the crud from someone who caught it recently and was asymptomatic, and then you share it with everyone else as they share it with everyone else and only a few get symptoms but of course that's only the flu because this three week lockdown destroyed ALL the CoVid. Right?
> 
> Right.


Right!

It's called second wave infection. Just ask China.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

I'm not sure if I have posted this before.

China mobile telecommunications is state owned -China Mobile. You like it or lump it. There's no choice. 
Want to drive? Your licence is electronic- it's on your phone. 
Want to travel? Your permit is electronic- it's on your phone. 
Need healthcare? Your record is electronic- it's on your phone.

Now China Telecommunications companies are reporting that in the last three months 21.3million Chinese residents have "unsubscribed".

https://www.ibtimes.sg/china-hiding-covid-19-death-toll-21-million-cell-phones-disappeared-why-41580

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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I have heard so many numbers and projections on this China bug I can't keep up with it all. I do know the media is over hyping it and pursuing the agenda of their puppet masters. I do know the government has no freakin clue how to deal with it and Pelosi and her minions are trying to leverage the situation for their own gain. I do know it has killed the economy outright. I don't know that sheltering in place is the answer. I don't know that anyone really has the answer.

All I can do is take the proper precautions and protect me and mine as best I can. My Dad and Mom are sheltering in place and are well suited to do so. My wife and I both work in critical infrastructure businesses so I am working and she is working from home. Both workplaces are observing all the protocols set in place as well as my wife and I. 

I am all for protecting the older and at risk since those people seem to be the ones with the highest mortality rate. But, putting people out of work and shutting down businesses? Now, I can afford to sit 3 weeks or 3 months if I have to as I have the financial ability. But most businesses and most people don't have that ability. Most people have less then a weeks worth of food in the house and less then a 100 bucks in the bank. Most businesses, small businesses in particular, can't survive a zero cash flow for long. So, the Government is going to hand out 2 trillion dollars that it doesn't have, and that's just the start. Is that the answer? 

We can mitigate, but people are going to get sick and people are going to die, this is not the first Pandemic nor will it be the last. what will we learn?


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Why is not half or more of China dead already ? Seems the worst in US is in Liberal controlled areas must be a reason. Reason is this is a wind fall for them they want it to spread. NYC and CA want the rest of the country to pay all their bills and give them more of everything.


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

For some perspective....

More people died from car accidents in 1909 than have died from Covid 19 so far.

Deaths from car accidents:

*2016 - 37,806
*2017 - 37,133
*2018 - 36,560

No one batted an eye at this. Roads weren't closed and cars weren't banned.

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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

News flash Hospitals are not over run here . Two cities near here emergence rooms are ghost towns. Deal with fact not hype. The sky is falling. We need more money for the arts programs and Union leadership . And we fell for it.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Sasquatch said:


> For some perspective....
> 
> More people died from car accidents in 1909 than have died from Covid 19 so far.
> 
> ...


2016 - 37,806 or 103.5 a day
*2017 - 37,133 or 101.7 a day
*2018 - 36,560 or 101.4 a day

US Covid fatalities this month: 1036 or 40 a day (26 days), about the same as Spain two weeks ago. 
Spain fatality figures yesterday: 442 and they've got 1/7th of the population

You're underestimating this massively.



Sasquatch said:


> For some perspective....
> 
> More people died from car accidents in 1909 than have died from Covid 19
> 
> Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk


The aggregate number of reported traffic fatalities during 1909 in the registration cities was 6,605 [365 days] 
Crum, Frederick S. "Street Traffic Accidents." Publications of the American Statistical Association, vol. 13, no. 103, 1913, pp. 473-528. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/2964794. Accessed 26 Mar. 2020.

Covid deaths so far: 1032 [26 days]
WHO Accessed 26 Mar. 2020

Your statement is correct, today. Let's come back at the end of day 365 and compare.



Sasquatch said:


> No one batted an eye at this. Roads weren't closed and cars weren't banned.


Since 1909:
Connecticut creates first state wide traffic laws (max speed 12mph in cities)
1910- New York introduces first DUI laws
1930 traffic lights introduced
1950 seat belts fitted as standard in cars
1951 air bags invented
1953 motor cycle helmets invented
1958 Automobile Information Disclosure Act passes 
1966 Dept of Transport created
1968 First Federal Safety standards for cars comes into effect 
1970 NHTSA is established to reduce deaths, injuries and economic losses from vehicle crashes
1974 National Speed limit set at 55mph
1977 Star of Life created as emergency vehicle identification 
1978 first child passenger safety law enacted & car (frontal) impact testing begins
1984 Law passed to require wearing of seat belts & the Motor Vehicle Theft Law Enforcement Act is passed
1985 Crash Test Dummies introduced to show benefits of wearing seatbelts 
1993 5 star safety ratings introduced 
1996 side impact testing added to 5 star rating 
1998 zero tolerance for blood alcohol in under 21s introduced 
1999 Dual air bags introduced 
2000 rollover resistance added to 5 star rating & Transport Recall Enhancement, Accountability and Documentation Act enacted
2001 Crash Avoidance rating added to 5 star rating
2003 seat belt wearing becomes mandatory next all states
2005 motorcycle helmets became compulsory when using a motorcycle & 0.8 per se act enacted
2006 all new vehicles must have safety data label affixed to price stickers
2007 Electronic Stability Control introduced & Tire pressure monitoring systems introduced 
2008 stricter standards to 5 star rating introduced
2009 combating Distracted Driving introduced by Executive Order
2010 5 star rating enhanced again 
2011 traffic fatalities at all time low (since 1949) & Child Safety (vehicles) recommendations made stricter. 
2013 Real time safety figures for each vehicle introduced 
2014 Free online recall tracker by VIN introduced 
2015 seat belt use at all time high (87%) & new 5 star system made stricter

I think many an eye was batted about car fatalities.

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## Elvis (Jun 22, 2018)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.
> ...


Where did you learn to do math? That's a 1.4% chance of dying but it will probably go up a bit since the virus in new enough in the US that a lot of people who have it haven't had time to die.

As of this morning the death rate is up to 1.6% but if they run out of medical equipment it will jump dramatically. 1046 deaths / 69246 cases

Italy who's medical ability has been overwhelmed is somewhere around a 9.5% fatality rate.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Elvis said:


> Where did you learn to do math? That's a 1.4% chance of dying but it will probably go up a bit since the virus in new enough in the US that a lot of people who have it haven't had time to die.
> 
> As of this morning the death rate is up to 1.6% but if they run out of medical equipment it will jump dramatically. 1046 deaths / 69246 cases
> 
> Italy who's medical ability has been overwhelmed is somewhere around a 9.5% fatality rate.


Same place as me:

69,246/370 000 000 x 100% = 0.017%
Which spookily is a factor of 100 of the other way of working out the figure. 929/65 564 x 100%

It depends how you are working it out

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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

fangfarrier said:


> Same place as me:
> 
> 69,246/370 000 000 x 100% = 0.017%
> Which spookily is a factor of 100 of the other way of working out the figure. 929/65 564 x 100%
> ...


You aren't using the numbers @Elvis was addressing.
RPD posted a rate of 929 deaths out of 65,564 reported cases. That is indeed a 1.4% rate of mortality, as RPD put it, "IF YOU EVEN GET IT"
Your number poses a rate based on the population size of the US. You are shifting the scope for some reason, and not in a helpful direction. Without an infection rate, you can't attempt to calculate a mortality rate of an entire population.

All of this is moot, as @Maine-Marine pointed out the flaw in using a raw numbers (deaths ÷ infected) ratio to determine a mortality rate.

What we actually know...
This *IS* more contagious than the flu.
You *CAN* be a carrier, and show minimal or zero symptoms.
You *CAN* infect others, even when showing no symptoms.
People 70 years old and up have a *HIGHER* risk of death if they contract the illness.
There is no way to "beat" this. It will be with us from now on. Our only hope of dealing with it is to reach a stable healthcare environment that can handle the inflow until we, as a population, develop herd immunity/defense.
That *MUST* be the primary focus of the government. Getting the resources released that will lead to more ICU beds and locations available, and stoking the incentive to get a vaccine produced.
Without these two things, the concerns brought up by @Denton and @MountainGirl are real and daunting. The worst thing we can do is isolate for 3 weeks, then everybody goes back to business as normal, we all infect each other, and the healthcare situation was never improved. The second spike would be massive.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

@Kauboy

I agree! My point wasn't the absolute figures, it was the rate of change of the figures. The change from 0.014 (or 1.4) to 0.018 (or 1.8) is a big change in a day.

Let's see how it pans out. Like in the duck and dive days, wait for the bus to go over you and then wait for the second bus.

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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Kauboy said:


> The second spike would be massive.


This......


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

Meanwhile, in my Florida county of almost 80,000 people, we have ONE documented case. One. And he had been out of the country.

It must really suck to live in a big city. :tango_face_grin:

Alcohol couldn't get me, the North Vietnamese Army couldn't get me, Agent Orange ain't got me yet. :vs_cool:

IF I come down with the virus, one of two things will happen. 1. I'll survive it. 2. I'll die.
I'm not worried, what will be, will be.

Meanwhile, I'm not in a hysterical panic like A LOT of Americans seem to be. :vs_shocked:

Now, if we can just keep those damned New York City folks from flying down to this state like thousands of little Typhoid Mary's, that would be a good thing.

By the way, I still go to work 3 days a week like usual, my employer has not been forced to close. I make auto parts deliveries to commercial accounts. I'm out and about, coming in contact with dozens of people a day. The only change to my job from months ago is the little electronic hand held device that records the delivery stays in my hands and the customer is no longer required to sign.

One great thing about this whole affair, the big city to the south, Jacksonville, has many office types working from home. That, plus schools closed means traffic is much lighter than usual.:tango_face_smile::tango_face_smile:


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

NPR lie and got caught again had to fact check. But they got it out there and no amount of fact check will make it go away.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/npr-fact-check-flu-death


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

But wait we are slowing but don;t bring that up it not fitting the hype.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/dr-saphier-breaks-down-very-encouraging-covid-19-case-numbers


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Just got back from seeing the HR lady to give her my return-to-work slip. After telling me how amazed she is that I am walking so well, she asked me if I really wanted to come back to the insanity. Of course, I asked what specific insanity. She said everyone was freaking over the KungFlu. I sighed and said all they need to do is wash their hands frequently and cover their mouths when they sneeze or cough. She seemed relieved that a sane person was returning.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> Meanwhile, in my Florida county of almost 80,000 people, we have ONE documented case. One. And he had been out of the country.


Meanwhile the Whole of Florida has 2,355 cases (up 378 today) and 28 dead (up 5 today)

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## NotTooProudToHide (Nov 3, 2013)

Denton said:


> Here's a site that will help put things in perspective.
> 
> https://www.cebm.net/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/
> 
> ...


I'm trying to minimize the disruptions to my everyday life, I'm not hunkering down in my house for sure. However, I am being smart about what I do or I think I am. When I need to get something I go during non peak hours, I'm not running out to crowds. I am more cognitive of hand washing and sanitizing things. This isn't the one that's going to end the world, but the 1918 flu pandemic is a fair comparison.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> Meanwhile the Whole of Florida has 2,355 cases (up 378 today) and 28 dead (up 5 today)
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Half or more of FL is people half dead already retire home FL is .


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## Demitri.14 (Nov 21, 2018)

Its actually 1.47%. GO redo the math


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Today the US reported 13,968 new cases and 115 new deaths. 

The USA has had more reported cases than China or Italy or Spain or Iran

This is day 21 for you. 


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> Meanwhile the Whole of Florida has 2,355 cases (up 378 today) and 28 dead (up 5 today)
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Like Smitty said, Florida is chock full of elderly people with underlying medical conditions.
A lot more than 28 die per day from other causes.

Since I'm not a math whiz, someone please calculate the statistically insignificant percentage number for 28 deaths out of a population of 21.99 MILLION.
Thank you.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> Like Smitty said, Florida is chock full of elderly people with underlying medical conditions.
> A lot more than 28 die per day from other causes.
> 
> Since I'm not a math whiz, someone please calculate the statistically insignificant percentage number for 28 deaths out of a population of 21.99 MILLION.
> Thank you.


0.0001%

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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> 0.0001%
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Thank you.

I heard on the Dennis Prager radio show that this virus does not thrive in hot, humid climates, such as Indonesia.
Maybe our climate here is helping keep the cases down.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

rice paddy daddy said:


> Like Smitty said, Florida is chock full of elderly people with underlying medical conditions.
> A lot more than 28 die per day from other causes.
> 
> Since I'm not a math whiz, someone please calculate the statistically insignificant percentage number for 28 deaths out of a population of 21.99 MILLION.
> Thank you.





fangfarrier said:


> 0.0001%
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Correction;

0.00012733%

Never hurts to double check the math of a Fangfarrier! Lots of nitrous oxide going on up in there! :vs_smirk: :vs_shake:


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Slippy said:


> Correction;
> 
> 0.00012733%
> 
> Never hurts to double check the math of a Fangfarrier! Lots of nitrous oxide going on up in there! :vs_smirk: :vs_shake:


I didn't want to use so many figures in one sentence.

Anyway. It'll be up to a full .1% in three weeks.

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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

fangfarrier said:


> I didn't want to use so many figures in one sentence.
> 
> Anyway. It'll be up to a full .1% in three weeks.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Whoa! You think we will see 22000 people dead due to the Chicom Flu in Florida alone?


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Slippy said:


> Whoa! You think we will see 2190 people dead due to the Chicom Flu in Florida alone?


Well 19.06% of the population of Florida are over 65. 
That's about 415,944 people so about 5% of that figure is about 20000 people.

20,000 deaths seems about right.

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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

fangfarrier said:


> Well 19.06% of the population of Florida are over 65.
> That's about 415,944 people
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


OH CRAP! :vs_frown:


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> Well 19.06% of the population of Florida are over 65.
> That's about 415,944 people so about 5% of that figure is about 20000 people.
> 
> 20,000 deaths seems about right.
> ...


Oh. I'm a factor of 10 out! It's over 4 million.

I'll stick with a conservative 20,000

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> I didn't want to use so many figures in one sentence.
> 
> Anyway. It'll be up to a full .1% in three weeks.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Still statistically insignificant.
Except for that .1% and their families.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

I've said it before and I'll say it again;

Nobody is getting out of this alive...


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> Oh. I'm a factor of 10 out! It's over 4 million.
> 
> I'll stick with a conservative 20,000
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


You're gonna need a different boat.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Slippy said:


> I've said it before and I'll say it again;
> 
> Nobody is getting out of this alive...


I am. Gonna live, forever.

So far, so good!!


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

I want you to know that I can respect your service. Like you as a person. feel thankful to have learned from you. and never doubt your bravery!

and still think you are a freaking dumb ass for not understanding that this virus is going to be a large sh!t sandwich and you just do not realize it yet because the first bite was all bread

soon we are going to see people denied medical service because the equipment is not there

people are going to be dying in hospital hallways.



worse case will be doctors, nurses, hospital staff become sick at same time as peak or just before peak


I Hope I am wrong!!!!


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## Elvis (Jun 22, 2018)

Slippy said:


> Whoa! You think we will see 22000 people dead due to the Chicom Flu in Florida alone?


While I haven't done the math in any particular state keep in mind that this virus sounds like the black plague of the 13th century which swept back every 6-15months to kill again,. We now have much better medical support but we also now have cars and air travel to spread it faster. And we don't have a really good cure.

While not well documented it is generally estimated that the black plague of the 1300's killed 30% of Europe and Asia over 3-5 years. The flu of 1918 during WW-! killed roughly 50 million. 
I doubt Covid-19 will kill over 2 million worldwide (maybe 30,000 in the US) during the next 6 months but it still sux to have it. I've been out of work for a week being sick and it's also killing my investments.

And if it mutates a tad like the common flu virus does each year some years it may become even more deadly or more contagious. To early to tell.


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

@Maine-Marine

This may give you some comfort -

*"Coronavirus data not matching extreme predictions"*
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/deborah-birx-coronavirus-data-not-matching-extreme-predictions

CoVid is still dangerous, and precautions should be taken, but it's comforting to me anyway that the US deaths will likely be in the tens of thousands - rather than the hundreds of thousands or millions.

At present count, we have 85,500 positive cases and 1200 deaths.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

Maine-Marine said:


> I want you to know that I can respect your service. Like you as a person. feel thankful to have learned from you. and never doubt your bravery!
> 
> and still think you are a freaking dumb ass for not understanding that this virus is going to be a large sh!t sandwich and you just do not realize it yet because the first bite was all bread
> 
> ...


It appears things are already improving in Florida.

Florida posts fourth straight day of flat COVID-19 case growth. Is the curve already bending? | The Capitolist


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

rice paddy daddy said:


> It appears things are already improving in Florida.
> 
> Florida posts fourth straight day of flat COVID-19 case growth. Is the curve already bending? | The Capitolist


Fantastic!
I'm not going to PCB quite yet, though.


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

fangfarrier said:


> 2016 - 37,806 or 103.5 a day
> *2017 - 37,133 or 101.7 a day
> *2018 - 36,560 or 101.4 a day
> 
> ...


Laws and regulations about driving are fine and needed to save lives. Same as rules regarding the virus (ie) social distancing, wash your hands, cover your cough, stay isolated if you are in a high risk group.

But I still think you are looking at the numbers wrong. There are too many factors from the US to other countries to use the same math. Just like with Italy because they have a bigger population of elderly so, of course, more people will die. Just today the doctor from the UK who claimed there would be 2.2 million to die in the US backpedalled and is now saying 20K. In his original claim he didn't figure in the rate of testing. The more we test the more the percentage rate of deaths per person will go down.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

A couple of thoughts:

So this China bug is supposed to be more lethal to old people, yet, Pelosi, RBG, and Hillary are still alive. 

I am tired of smelling Lysol

What are the MSM talking bobble heads going to do when this is over. And yes, it will be over, and yes, most of us, including RBG, Pelosi, and Hillary, will survive! :vs_mad:

Just where did the Government get that 2 Trillion dollars and just who has to pay it back?

If something really, really, really bad happens, we are f---ed. 

Just where the hell are all the safe places!!!!!

This is of coarse, all Trumps fault and he has handled it badly.

Who are the democrats running for president this November?

How is it that even with everyone home and the traffic being light, It seems I am the one behind the lone dumbass on the planet doing something stupid in front of me?

Did I mention the Lysol?


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Prepared One said:


> How is it that even with everyone home and the traffic being light, It seems I am the one behind the lone dumbass on the planet doing something stupid in front of me?


This has me puzzled too. I ventured out two days ago, roughly 6pm, to pick up a curbside order. I overheard the traffic reporter on the radio still reporting on wrecks and backups in the same ol' locations over near Dallas. Either people aren't heeding the "stay-at-home" orders, en mass, or the stupid people are still finding each other and clustering together.
Traffic has been fairly steady in our town. More people out walking lately, but the cars are all still there.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Lovely infographic half way down this article

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51235105?app=news.world.story.51235105.page

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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Kauboy said:


> This has me puzzled too. I ventured out two days ago, roughly 6pm, to pick up a curbside order. I overheard the traffic reporter on the radio still reporting on wrecks and backups in the same ol' locations over near Dallas. Either people aren't heeding the "stay-at-home" orders, en mass, or the stupid people are still finding each other and clustering together.
> Traffic has been fairly steady in our town. More people out walking lately, but the cars are all still there.


I am voting on stupid people always finding one another and flocking together. I just question why they always seem to do it in front of me. lain:


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

If you want to learn more about Coronavirus there is a free online course run by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine available here:

https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/study/courses/short-courses/free-online-courses/coronavirus

It is supposed to take 12 hours. You could do it whilst self isolating perhaps?

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

You get a nice certificate!









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## Steve40th (Aug 17, 2016)

Here is a great video to explain the virus. And some stats, not mine but very detailed
Prevalence Rate: Cases/Population
Case Fatality Rate: Deaths/Cases
Mortality Rate: Deaths/Population

Worldwide
PR: 0.0066% (512,701/7,800,000,000)
CFR: 4.58% (23,495/512,701)
MR: 0.0003% (23,495/7,800,000,000)

United States - Every Man For Himself
PR: 0.02% (68,334/328,000,000)
CFR: 1.45% (991/68,334)
MR: 0.0003% (991/328,000,000)

United Kingdom - Fully Socialized
PR: 0.02% (11,662/66,500,000)
CFR: 4.96% (578/11,662)
MR: 0.00087% (578/66,500,000)

Canada - Universal
PR: 0.0094% (3,555/38,000,000)
CFR: 0.98% (35/3,555)
MR: 0.00009% (35/38,000,000)

Japan - Universal
PR: 0.0011% (1,387/127,000,000)
CFR: 3.32% (46/1,387)
MR: 0.000036% (46/127,000,000)

France - Two Tier
PR: 0.04% (28,786/67,000,000)
CFR: 5.89% (1,695/28,786)
MR: 0.0025% (1,695/67,000,000)

Israel - Two Tier
PR: 0.035% (3,035/8,700,000)
CFR: 0.33% (10/3,035)
MR: 0.00011% (10/8,700,000)


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> .


As of 7:18 AM Eastern time today, March 28 (60 hours later) there were 104,256 (159% of original quoted figures)Coronavirus cases in the US, and 1704 (183% of original quoted figure) deaths

In 60 hours @rice paddy daddy

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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> As of 7:18 AM Eastern time today, March 28 (60 hours later) there were 104,256 (159% of original quoted figures)Coronavirus cases in the US, and 1704 (183% of original quoted figure) deaths
> 
> In 60 hours @rice paddy daddy
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Don't believe everything you hear.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

stevekozak said:


> Don't believe everything you hear.


You dispute these figures??

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

stevekozak said:


> Don't believe everything you hear.


11 hrs after my post those figures are 116,057 (177% of your figures) & 1,937 (208.5% of your figures).

What will it take for you to believe?

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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> You dispute these figures??
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I haven't disputed anything. I am just telling you not to believe everything you hear.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

stevekozak said:


> I haven't disputed anything. I am just telling you not to believe everything you hear.


So, please tell me, what is it I have heard that I should not believe?

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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> 11 hrs after my post those figures are 116,057 (177% of your figures) & 1,937 (208.5% of your figures).
> 
> What will it take for you to believe?
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


I haven't given any figures. What is it you want me to believe? I don't believe everything I hear.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

stevekozak said:


> I haven't given any figures. What is it you want me to believe? I don't believe everything I hear.


Follow the thread. These were figures given by @rice paddy daddy

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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> Follow the thread. These were figures given by @rice paddy daddy
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Perhaps then, when you are posting to me, you should not say "your figures" and more truthfully say rice paddy daddy's figures. What is it you want me to believe? Why is it important to you that I believe what it is you want me to believe? I'm not arguing with you, I am curious.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

stevekozak said:


> Perhaps then, when you are posting to me, you should not say "your figures" and more truthfully say rice paddy daddy's figures. What is it you want me to believe? Why is it important to you that I believe what it is you want me to believe? I'm not arguing with you, I am curious.


Hey

You replied to my reply to RPD with "don't believe everything "

I wanted to know what you didn't believe or what you think I shouldn't believe.

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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> Hey
> 
> You replied to my reply to RPD with "don't believe everything "
> 
> ...


At the risk of this being an Abbot and Costello routine:

What don't I believe: Everything I hear.
What do I think you should not believe: Everything you hear.

:vs_wave:


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

stevekozak said:


> At the risk of this being an Abbot and Costello routine:
> 
> What don't I believe: Everything I hear.
> What do I think you should not believe: Everything you hear.
> ...


You don't believe everything you hear. That's what you do not believe.

Question is, what do you believe, and what is the evidence that bolsters your position?

Not looking to jump into the discussion; just looking for clear viewpoints for my own benefit. :tango_face_smile:


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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

Denton said:


> You don't believe everything you hear. That's what you do not believe.
> 
> Question is, what do you believe, and what is the evidence that bolsters your position?
> 
> Not looking to jump into the discussion; just looking for clear viewpoints for my own benefit. :tango_face_smile:


I don't currently feel a need to share that information. I will let you know when I do.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

stevekozak said:


> I don't currently feel a need to share that information. I will let you know when I do.


Well. I'll go elsewhere for information. :vs_smirk:


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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

Denton said:


> Well. I'll go elsewhere for information. :vs_smirk:


Don't blame you there.


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> As of 7:18 AM Eastern time today, March 28 (60 hours later) there were 104,256 (159% of original quoted figures)Coronavirus cases in the US, and 1704 (183% of original quoted figure) deaths
> 
> In 60 hours @rice paddy daddy
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


It doubles every so many days. I'm no mathematician, but that alone tells me it's not good.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Annie said:


> It doubles every so many days. I'm no mathematician, but that alone tells me it's not good.


Doubles every 2 1/2 days

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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Annie said:


> It doubles every so many days. I'm no mathematician, but that alone tells me it's not good.


 Only numbers that madder is how many it kills and who they are. Old, those with underlying conditions ect. It is here so focus on what is the real concerns. You have people out there that will spread it just to get others sick. We live in a crazy world.


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Annie said:


> It doubles every so many days. I'm no mathematician, but that alone tells me it's not good.


Maybe this will help -

Figuring doubling every two days:

Day- doubled
1......1
3......2
5......4
7......8
9......16
11.....32
13.....64
15.....128
17.....256
19.....512
21.....1,024
23.....2,048
25.....4,096
27.....8,192
29.....16,384
31.....32,768
33.....65,536
35.....131,072
37.....262,144
39.....524,288
41.....1,048,576
43.....2,097,152
45.....4,194,304

45 days is 6 weeks out.

I'm not saying that's how many people will die, catch it, or anything else.
Just showing what 'doubling the number every other day' looks like.


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

MountainGirl said:


> Maybe this will help -
> 
> Figuring doubling every two days:
> 
> ...


Where did you get that numbers of infected are doubling every other day? Thought it was more like every six days (as per Peak Prosperity). Wear a mask. We can crush the case count. :tango_face_smile:


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Annie said:


> Where did you get that numbers of infected are doubling every other day? Thought it was more like every six days (as per Peak Prosperity). Wear a mask. We can crush the case count. :tango_face_smile:


You'll have to ask @fangfarrier that; I just made a little chart to show what doubling growth every so often looks like...and I left out cumulative totals; y'all can add them up if you want.

I have no information as to what any reality is where; nor do I believe any numbers regarding all this. 
Too many variables for anything to be accurate or valid, imo.
Except for my little chart, that is.


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## Robie (Jun 2, 2016)

Don't know if it was posted yet but here is an up to date look at each state.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

Robie said:


> Don't know if it was posted yet but here is an up to date look at each state.
> 
> https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/


Hey, that's a really good link. Bookmarked it. Thanks!


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Annie said:


> Where did you get that numbers of infected are doubling every other day? Thought it was more like every six days (as per Peak Prosperity). Wear a mask. We can crush the case count. :tango_face_smile:


Here is an article on scales and increases.

https://www.nytimes.com./2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html









The chart to look at is the logarithmic chart. This chart represents the rate of change of the increase ( the speed at which the increase occurs, or the shortening of the time interval it takes to double)








You see Italy, the red line? It's curve is dipping so the rate of increase is slowing but it is still increasing. 
The blue line is the US. It's line is going the opposite way. It's rate of increase is accelerating. It's taking fewer days, less time, to double each time. 
We spoke earlier (the forum) about world numbers. 63 days to get to 100k infections, 11 days to get to 200k, 4 days to get to 300k, 2 days to 400k, 1 day to 500k, 24hours to 664,891 ( reporting is generally every 24 hrs so we will need a few days to map the rate accurately). 
Remember, these figures are numbers of people tested who are positive. Not how many of the population actually have it.

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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

MountainGirl said:


> Hey, that's a really good link. Bookmarked it. Thanks!


Not saying this one is but I have heard a lot of these types of sites are just traps to install malware on your computer. Just be sure of the sources.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Sasquatch said:


> Not saying this one is but I have heard a lot of these types of sites are just traps to install malware on your computer. Just be sure of the sources.


This one is quite reputable.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> As of 7:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 25, there were 65,564 Coronavirus cases in the US, and 929 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a 0.014% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.929 2391
> 
> Yet, the media has everyone whipped up into a hysterical frenzy.


As of 4:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 29 (93 hours later), there were (was 65,564) 135,957 Coronavirus cases in the US, and (was 929) 2391 deaths.
According to my calculator, that works out to a (was 0.014%) 0.03% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.

Those numbers are changing fast, aren't they?

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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> As of 4:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 29 (93 hours later), there were (was 65,564) 135,957 Coronavirus cases in the US, and (was 929) 2391 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a (was 0.014%) 0.03% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Those numbers are changing fast, aren't they?
> ...


They sure are...especially with the testing ramping up. 
VP Pence said this morning over a half million have been tested so far and roughly 90% tested negative.
(heard on the radio, sorry no link)


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

MountainGirl said:


> They sure are...especially with the testing ramping up.
> VP Pence said this morning over a half million have been tested so far and roughly 90% tested negative.
> (heard on the radio, sorry no link)


Yes testing ramps up the infected numbers but not the fatality numbers.

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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> Yes testing ramps up the infected numbers but not the fatality numbers.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Right. AND it puts the fatality numbers in a more realistic perspective. Which is good, just in case some are trying to crank up hysteria.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> As of 4:18 PM Eastern time tonight, March 29 (93 hours later), there were (was 65,564) 135,957 Coronavirus cases in the US, and (was 929) 2391 deaths.
> According to my calculator, that works out to a (was 0.014%) 0.03% chance of dying from this, IF YOU EVEN GET IT.
> 
> Those numbers are changing fast, aren't they?
> ...


0.03% is still statistically insignificant.

Of the 2.9 million of us who went to Vietnam and were exposed to Agent Orange, some much more than others, the VA says there are 750,000 of us left.
What percentage does that work out to? (Serious question, I am math impaired).
I was in the most heavily sprayed area of the whole country of South Vietnam, yet I am still here.

I am not worried about a virus, and that is not ignorant bravado. I am just not worried about it.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

MountainGirl said:


> Right. AND it puts the fatality numbers in a more realistic perspective. Which is good, just in case some are trying to crank up hysteria.


Yes. Realistically at the start of March you had one death a day. Now it's 2438 and March isn't finished yet.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

rice paddy daddy said:


> 0.03% is still statistically insignificant.
> 
> Of the 2.9 million of us who went to Vietnam and were exposed to Agent Orange, some much more than others, the VA says there are 750,000 of us left.
> What percentage does that work out to? (Serious question, I am math impaired)..


Sir, it's 25.86206896551724%

****Or an attrition rate of 0.01235632183908% a month, which is statistically insignificant. ****
WRONG! I assumed a linear attrition rate. 
Correct is 0.0479% loss per month since the end of the Vietnam war. 
I can't say it is statistically significant or not until we know the null hypothesis.

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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> Yes. Realistically at the start of March you had one death a day. Now it's 2438 and March isn't finished yet.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

April 15, 2009 - January 2010

61 million Americans infected
18,000 Americans died, all ages affected similarly.
Symptoms: breathing difficulty, followed by viral or bacterial pneumonia (so yes—ventilators were needed).
No social-distancing. No fear of hospitals being overwhelmed
No layoffs, shutting down business
No 2 Trillion bailout
No 24/7 media coverage


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

Another number we don't know and may never know is how many of the deaths only sped up the process by a few months or so. Meaning how many that died from the virus would've died from some other cause by the end of this year because the were old.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Sasquatch said:


> Another number we don't know and may never know is how many of the deaths only sped up the process by a few months or so. Meaning how many that died from the virus would've died from some other cause by the end of this year because the were old.


Or stupid... I saw those picture of the Spring Breakers and I can say with 100% confidence that several of them will not make it to the end of the year regardless of the virus.


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## paulag1955 (Dec 15, 2019)

Estimates show the Wuhan death toll far higher than official numbers. What a surprise.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Another question is how many really died from the virus. How many would have die away for other medical reason. Did they test each one of these people or just take the easy course and label the death virus?


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> Another question is how many really died from the virus. How many would have die away for other medical reason. Did they test each one of these people or just take the easy course and label the death virus?


Every death attributed to Coronavirus was tested and found to be Coronavirus (in the UK). I can't imagine that they won't test for SARS-CoV-2 in the US too as the data will be invaluable when collected.

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> April 15, 2009 - January 2010
> 
> 61 million Americans infected
> 18,000 Americans died, all ages affected similarly.
> ...


Let me continue quoting that CDC web page for you:

The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, *but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives.*

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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> Let me continue quoting that CDC web page for you:
> 
> The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
> The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, *but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives.*
> ...


18,000 still died Yes this virus is serious but it is also a political tool. The government hacks that work for the CD and WHO are at best frauds in most cases. WHO is well known for being total inept.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> Every death attributed to Coronavirus was tested and found to be Coronavirus (in the UK). I can't imagine that they won't test for SARS-CoV-2 in the US too as the data will be invaluable when collected.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


 And you think they are telling you the truth . Remember you you are getting this information from.


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## 0rocky (Jan 7, 2018)

*Sad for those New Yorkers*

Not to minimize the threat level but I couldn't help but notice that if your ELIMINATE New York, the national numbers are roughly halved. Not saying what I'd personally like to see done to Gov. Cuomo. Quick note of thanks to @Robie for the link to state-by-state stats.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> Let me continue quoting that CDC web page for you:
> 
> The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: A New Flu Virus Emerges
> The (H1N1)pdm09 virus was very different from H1N1 viruses that were circulating at the time of the pandemic. Few young people had any existing immunity (as detected by antibody response) to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus, *but nearly one-third of people over 60 years old had antibodies against this virus, likely from exposure to an older H1N1 virus earlier in their lives.*
> ...


 Were was the panic the outrage the shut the world down it never happened. And after 2010 the Flu is still causes large numbers of deaths and infection not a word. Seems we pick and choose.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> Were was the panic the outrage the shut the world down it never happened. And after 2010 the Flu is still causes large numbers of deaths and infection not a word. Seems we pick and choose.


The panic is because there is no innate immunity in the population. We've had H1N1 infections before but not a novel Coronavirus which spreads at this rate or kills at this rate and targets vulnerable groups so ruthlessly.

By the way, since starting this discussion on the 25th the US infection rate has gone from 65k to 140k and deaths from 900+ to 3100+.

The panic is because there is a beautiful storm brewing.

And as for flu':

Nationwide ... 6.4% of patient visits reported through the U.S. Outpatient Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network (ILINet) were due to influenza-like illness (ILI). This percentage is above the national baseline of 2.4%.
(267% of the national baseline)

The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 67.3 per 100,000 population, which is higher than all recent seasons at this time of year except for the 2017-18 season.

(Hospitalization from flu'-like symptoms up)

Based on National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data available on March 26, 2020, 7.4% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 7, 2020 (week 11) were due to Pneumonia & Influenza. This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.3%

More people dying of pneumonia AND Influenza SYMPTOMS

From the CDC website:

Laboratory confirmed influenza-associated hospitalization rates for the U.S. population overall are higher than most recent seasons and rates for children 0-4 years and adults 18-49 years are the highest CDC has on record for these age groups, surpassing rates reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Hospitalization rates for school-aged children (5-17 years) are higher than any recent regular season but remain lower than rates experienced by this age group during the pandemic.

Pneumonia and influenza mortality levels have been low, but 155 influenza-associated deaths in children have been reported so far this season. This number is higher than recorded at the same time in every season since reporting began in 2004-05, except for the 2009 pandemic.

CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 39 million flu illnesses, 400,000 hospitalizations and 24,000 deaths from flu.

and yet:










Deaths from pneumonia & flu'-like symptoms are at epidemic levels in the US at the moment but positive tests are plummeting. These deaths are not reported as coronavirus but as Flu' because of the symptoms and lack of testing for SARS-CoV-2. 
But even those that are tested and positive for flu' (strain B/Victoria) are at record highs in the US.

One epidemic (pandemic) is unfortunate but to have two epidemics (seemingly) at the same time is terrible.

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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> The panic is because there is no innate immunity in the population. We've had H1N1 infections before but not a novel Coronavirus which spreads at this rate or kills at this rate and targets vulnerable groups so ruthlessly.
> 
> By the way, since starting this discussion on the 25th the US infection rate has gone from 65k to 140k and deaths from 900+ to 3100+.
> 
> ...


 You do not know if people are exposed to the virus and not getting sick yet. There seems to be people that are having very mild effects from it. Big money and power in playing this the way they are. CDC and WHO has no credibility.
Keep up the good work but open your mind the the fact we are being played. This virus spread was intentional. It was meant to cause wide spread economic harm.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> You do not know if people are exposed to the virus and not getting sick yet. There seems to be people that are having very mild effects from it. Big money and power in playing this the way they are. CDC and WHO has no credibility.
> Keep up the good work but open your mind the the fact we are being played. This virus spread was intentional. It was meant to cause wide spread economic harm.


You're right. I do not KNOW. 
You do not KNOW it was intentional.

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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> You're right. I do not KNOW.
> You do not KNOW it was intentional.
> 
> Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


 yep.
China. They have a plan. As for deaths show me when China ever cared about people that die in China. Notice how first words out of WHO was defending China and asking for mo money. China owns WHO.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

What was it Britney Spears sang? “Whoops, I did it again....”,

oh dear China. 

Posted by Black Blade on another forum


Here We Go Again: China Puts County On Lockdown After New Corona Cluster Emerges 

China is no longer fixed.

Having lied for the past two months about the severity and the extent of coronavirus pandemic which its virologists started in Wuhan, eager to convey the message that the crisis "under control" just so people return to work, full of hope and enthusiasm, rejoicing at the surge in China's just as fabricated PMI numbers, and willing to work their asses off (with Beijing generously willing to risk everyone's lives as the alternative is a complete collapse in China's economy) earlier today the US finally cracked down on the relentless barrage of Chinese lies, when US intelligence accused China of deliberately lying about its coronavirus figures.

Then, in a miraculous coincidence, just moments later Reuters reported that a county in central China's Henan province announced on Wednesday it had "virtually banned all outbound movement of people, following several cases of coronavirus infection in the area."

According to a post on its social media account, Jia county - which has a population of about 600,000 - said that no one can travel out of Jia county without proper authorization. Additionally, residents are not allowed to leave their homes for work unless they have clearance to do so.



According to local media reports, on March 29, Henan Province broke its 30-day streak of reporting no new coronavirus cases, saying one person tested positive after a trip to Pingdingshan, where Jia County is located. Specifically, on Saturday, Henan province reported one confirmed case in Luohe city; local authorities said the infected person had been in contact with two doctors based in Jia county who later tested positive for the virus even though they had showed no symptoms.

As a result, Bloomberg adds that starting April 1, all residential compounds will be under "closed-off management" and all residents need to wear masks and have temperature taken entering or exiting the compounds.

And so the virus is back to China, despite the best intentions of the Chinese World Health Organization and its Beijing sponsors to make it seem that China had managed to defeat the virus.

Needless to say this is a problem, because the risk of stop-start restrictions on people’s movements mean that any calls for a V-shaped rebound in global economies and stocks can now be ignored as China will soon be forced to go through the entire shut down exercise all over again.

Indeed, as Bloomberg's Simon Flint wrote presciently overnight, "as China’s economy restarts, there is every risk infection rates to tick higher once again, requiring renewed control measures and potentially the beginning of a stop-start pattern of lockdowns followed by eased restrictions."

"Multiply that pattern by the growing number of countries in lockdown - and the unknown impact of a rampant virus in nations with fewer restrictions - and the much hoped for V-shaped recovery could quickly become a series of W’s"... and since "there is no blueprint for jump-starting a stalled economy in the midst of a global pandemic, a fresh waves of infections following production restarts could quickly snuff out any rally in global stocks."

In other words, back to square one we go, only maybe this time China will tell the truth.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

China was playing dirty and it back fired a bit on them. Again China don't care how many die. Never did never will. Agenda is everything and the only thing march on is the order of the day. Stay at your work station till you drop.
China will never tell the truth.
There are those the think no madder what we do the virus will run it's course. And the best option is let it. Actions being taken now are just making worst and prolonging it. Flip a coin on what option you think works. One thing for darn sure don't do anything NY does and never listen the the Mayor of NYC.


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

I think it's just south of 24k who tested positive here in the good ol' Garden State.

BTW, have you seen this meme? Apologies for being redundant if so, but how funny is this?


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## Steve40th (Aug 17, 2016)

Its not adding up folks. CBS faked a news article, and I have been two 3 hospitals in my area, nothing suggesting chaos..


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

Steve40th said:


> Its not adding up folks. CBS faked a news article, and I have been two 3 hospitals in my area, nothing suggesting chaos..


Wow, Steve. I think we should know for sure in a week or two. There's no doubt the media has been whipping this up into a frenzy, but why?

The thing is, it did get real bad in Wuhan, Italy and Spain, Iran is bad, too.


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## Michael_Js (Dec 4, 2013)

I found this video interesting: 




Peace,
Michael J.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

At 9pm (GMT) 2 April 2020 the number of worldwide cases of coronavirus passed the 1 000 000 mark. 


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

CDC estimates* that, from*October 1, 2019, through*March 21, 2020, there have been:

38,000,000 - 54,000,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Sasquatch said:


> CDC estimates* that, from*October 1, 2019, through*March 21, 2020, there have been:
> 
> 38,000,000 - 54,000,000
> 
> ...


...with 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths 
[2-5k per month]

in the US, over 12 months

SARS-Cov-2 is 5,807 this month.

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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Houston County reported its first death.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

We now have 9 cases in our county of 79,000. No deaths.

Any vehicles with New York, New Jersey, or Connecticut plates are being stopped at the border and screened.
Also, any coming into the state from the west with Louisiana plates.
If we can just keep contaminated individuals out, we may stay ahead.

Also, hotels in North East Florida are not allowing anyone from out of state to book a room.


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## SOCOM42 (Nov 9, 2012)

In this state (MA) there just under 9,000 cases.

There are 667 cases in this county.

And 154 reported deaths for the state.

There were just 115 cases on 15 March.

Not quite the prepping disaster I had expected but everything i have prepped for is now coming into play.

Was short on the hand sanitizer, but have plenty of precursors to mix my own.

Have plenty of TP stored along with PT.

I expect many cases to show up in this town in short order, they are already in adjacent towns.


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

fangfarrier said:


> ...with 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths
> [2-5k per month]
> 
> in the US, over 12 months
> ...


Fang, buddy. I understand this is serious but all I see coming from you is doom and gloom. Why is it the media never fixates on how many people have recovered? I understand people are going to die and that is bad but a hell of a lot more are going to live. I think once this thing is over and we can really take a look at the numbers and variables we'll wonder why everyone panicked so much.


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

And Fang is fixated with USA stats. He’s from the UK. Why not concentrate on statistics from your own country? I hear they’re not doing so well over there, either.


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## 23897 (Apr 18, 2017)

Chiefster23 said:


> And Fang is fixated with USA stats. He's from the UK. Why not concentrate on statistics from your own country? I hear they're not doing so well over there, either.


You're right. I'll mind my own business. 
Not that the U.K. is ahead of you and you can learn from our experience.

Good luck guys and gals.

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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

Well Fang, if you have anything positive to contribute, by all means, tell us. I understand you are ahead of us in this fight. But over here all we see is a constant barrage of virus stats on every cable news channel so trust me, We can easily see virus stats on our own TV. Why not tell us what steps you guys are taking to combat this sickness. What works? What doesn’t? Personal experiences? Availability of food and medicine?

We don’t see UK stats over here. How are your case numbers running? Have you flattened the curve yet? What are your recovery numbers? What meds are your doctors using to treat this disease?


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

My hatred for stupid people has increased over the past 4 weeks...

Recently, I was picking up some 1" common boards at the small town big box store and noticed what appeared to be a family of 5 walking nearby. The large female, I presume she was the mother of the 3 smallish humans that were following her, was carrying a bunch of batteries. The largest of the 5 appeared to be a male and possibly the father. Nobody else had items from the store. I assume that batteries were all they needed. 

I make these assumptions because they were all wearing masks. The large female appeared to be the leader of the troop. 

I checked out at the Pro Desk and as I walked out of the store, the masked troop of baboons, er humans, were ahead of me, carrying only what appeared to be a bag of batteries that the large female was holding earlier.

If you believe this pandemic is bad enough to wear a dang mask, and you feel the need to buy a bunch of AAA Batteries, presumably to run your stupid chicom crap during the apocalypse, why in the hell would you drag your children and whole family to the Home EFFING Depot!

Have I mentioned that my hatred of stupid people has increased over the past few weeks?


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## MountainGirl (Oct 29, 2017)

fangfarrier said:


> You're right. I'll mind my own business.
> Not that the U.K. is ahead of you and you can learn from our experience.
> 
> Good luck guys and gals.
> ...


Nah..stick around, ya silly duffer. 
Some folks just dont get that we're all wanting to help or contribute as we can; which isn't much these days; but having a connection with others, even if its just online, is a good thing! I appreciate your stats, and hearing about what's up over there, but mostly it's nice to see the virus hasn't gotten you yet! 
:vs-kiss:


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

fangfarrier said:


> You're right. I'll mind my own business.
> Not that the U.K. is ahead of you and you can learn from our experience.
> 
> Good luck guys and gals.
> ...


 I get it. I am fine with your post both those I agree with and those I don't. I do read what you post. I think I am older than you have have seen many things this is just another on the list. People are dieing, that Sucks but they die everyday.
60,000 to 70,000 will die on the streets from Over dosing this year. Bad people will kill many more . We will beat this virus.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

fangfarrier said:


> You're right. I'll mind my own business.
> Not that the U.K. is ahead of you and you can learn from our experience.
> 
> Good luck guys and gals.
> ...


Fangfarrier;

If you go I'll gie ye a skelpit lug!

Keep the heid!

Dinnae teach yer Granny tae suck eggs!

Whit's fur ye'll no go by ye!

Your friend

Slippy!


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

I was hoping that if street drugs dried up a bit some would get off them long enough to take a different path. Addiction is hell. But it seems drug sales on the street is an ok reason to be out And they want to let the doper rappers out of jail.


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## Limit Killer (Dec 6, 2017)

Smitty901 said:


> I was hoping that if street drugs dried up a bit some would get off them long enough to take a different path. Addiction is hell. But it seems drug sales on the street is an ok reason to be out And they want to let the doper rappers out of jail.


Next door to me in BC, the provincial government has declared illegal drugs to be a necessity for the homeless addicts and is providing the full spectrum of drugs including meth, heroin, alcohol, weed, pcp etc on the taxpayers dime to these people.

Raise the limits.


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## SGG (Nov 25, 2015)

Limit Killer said:


> Next door to me in BC, the provincial government has declared illegal drugs to be a necessity for the homeless addicts and is providing the full spectrum of drugs including meth, heroin, alcohol, weed, pcp etc on the taxpayers dime to these people.
> 
> Raise the limits.


Link?


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## SGG (Nov 25, 2015)

fangfarrier said:


> You're right. I'll mind my own business.
> Not that the U.K. is ahead of you and you can learn from our experience.
> 
> Good luck guys and gals.
> ...


Please don't go, and please continue to post exactly like you have. I check for your simple stats everyday I really appreciate it.


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## paulag1955 (Dec 15, 2019)

fangfarrier said:


> ...with 24,000 - 62,000 flu deaths
> [2-5k per month]
> 
> in the US, over 12 months
> ...


I appreciate your posts. They save me having to track the numbers down myself.


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## Limit Killer (Dec 6, 2017)

SGG said:


> Link?


Here's one https://www.macleans.ca/society/hea...head-off-an-even-greater-coronavirus-tragedy/

Still trying to find the original unedited version that I saw from CBC with the full list of available street drugs supplied by the government.

I really should screenshot and bookmark this kind of stuff when I see it.

Raise the limits.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Limit Killer said:


> Next door to me in BC, the provincial government has declared illegal drugs to be a necessity for the homeless addicts and is providing the full spectrum of drugs including meth, heroin, alcohol, weed, pcp etc on the taxpayers dime to these people.
> 
> Raise the limits.


 Sad instead of helping them they make more slaves. Good for liberal they profit from it.


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