# 2015 Recession / Crash



## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

There was an article on a news source I check from time to time... so i did a google search for articles posted in the last week... here are two that were good reads.... One comment from an article was interesting... the writer said..."You'll hear the crash warnings, but your brain won't believe your ears."

Economists Caution: Prepare for 'Massive Wealth Destruction'
When he was asked what sort of odds he put on a global recession happening, the economist famous for his ominous predictions quickly answered . . . "100 percent."

?It?s Gonna Be a Bloodbath?: Expert Says the Economy Is Actually Still Weak ? and That a ?Day of Reckoning? Needs to Happen | TheBlaze.com
Easy monetary policies aren't a permanent fix, Schiff said, but merely "delay the Day of Reckoning" - meaning that day "will just be worse when it comes."


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Oil down, dollar up, some people back to work, corporate profits at all time highs, this kind of theory comes out every year to promote the buying of gold and silver (both of which have declined steadily over the past 2 or 3 years years) so I would be the first to say I'm wrong if there is an economic crisis but I don't see it happening. Take 2015 as another year to be more prepared then the year before.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Some of Slippy's predictions for 2015;

More USA Federal Government Spending and borrowing and debt
More Socialism and attempts by Socialists to infringe upon Liberty
More attempts by Governments at Redistribution of Wealth via taxation of the working people
More Racial Nonsense
More Regulation at the Federal, State and in some cases local levels


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Do we see the continued diminishing of the middle class as the wealthy grow wealthier and the rest cuddle up to the poverty line?

Are we going to see manufacturing in the U.S. become a world leader, once again? 

Are regulations going to be changed so that start-ups have a chance at the American dream, or is the game going to remain rigged for the big boys?

Are the geopolitical chess masters going to continue the dangerous game of chess?

Are we citizens going to cheer for "our side" without the sober understanding that we do not have a side?


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Denton said:


> Do we see the continued diminishing of the middle class as the wealthy grow wealthier and the rest cuddle up to the poverty line?
> 
> Are we going to see manufacturing in the U.S. become a world leader, once again?
> 
> ...


Slippy's answers to your important questions;
Yes, some of the rich may grow richer and the number of poor people will increase, with the increases in number of poor people coming from the 21-35 year old demographic.

No, we will not see a rise in US manufacturing in 2015 to the levels of world class. Too many regulations, taxes and healthcare costs plus lack of hard workers. (Notice I said HARD workers and not just Workers?)

See answer to 2 above

Yes,

Sorry, I don't understand final question.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> Oil down, dollar up, some people back to work, corporate profits at all time highs, this kind of theory comes out every year to promote the buying of gold and silver (both of which have declined steadily over the past 2 or 3 years years) so I would be the first to say I'm wrong if there is an economic crisis but I don't see it happening. Take 2015 as another year to be more prepared then the year before.


WHY is oil down?
WHY is the dollar up?

Corporate profits are at a high because wages are at a low... Why are US corporate profits so high? Because wages are so low

I doubt that ALL these articles come out to sell gold and silver....

America and the world has had a financial event before... 1929 until mid 1930's -- called the great depression... Then we had a population that had a wonderful moral compass.... today we have a majority of people that have no moral guidance beside ME ME ME thinking

Oil down means that a some point those high paying oil jobs are going to disappear...putting more people onto the welfare roles.

The dollar up.... that is easy to say but harder to explain....Why the U.S. Dollar Is Rising, and Why It's Going to Fall

Frankly - I could care less about people buying gold and silver... i want them to buy rice, beans, wheat, canned meat, veggies and fruit......

And I think...seriously think - that there will be an event prior to October of 2015.....I have started to look, re-look, and double look at my preps....


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

Denton said:


> Do we see the continued diminishing of the middle class as the wealthy grow wealthier and the rest cuddle up to the poverty line?* yes*
> 
> Are we going to see manufacturing in the U.S. become a world leader, once again? *no*
> 
> ...


* no*

just my belief on subject


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

I would like to take the optimistic side of this one. There is always the chance of something unexpected happening, e.g. a shooting war, but a purely economic collapse after we've just spent six years recovering from the last one and are just starting to recover? Seems unlikely.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

What Ripon is saying is that not a year goes by that isn't advertised as the year where the crap is going to hit the fan. Buy gold and silver today, for disaster strikes this year! Really; this time we are right, is what should be added. 

I am a silver bug, but a calm silver bug.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

Slippy missed one. Gun control. Has to be done in 2015 so it doesn't effect the 2016 election.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

The middle class will remain stagnant. The poor will get more hand outs forced by the regime who will buy yet another election. The wealthy will do better.

The U.S. will not be a manufacturing power. We don't have the work force for it we have the entitlement force that would rather play Xbox..

Ah regulations. Crowd funding is a serious improvement for the little guy, so is the net in general, but we seem to focus on the evils instead of the advantages....sometimes the evils warrant it like obummercare, and other times they aren't really that big a deal.

World wide chess masters....hmmm...this is where I disagree with so many about the "powers that be." To me that group likes their life styles and will insure it continues.

Choosing sides...another intriguing point of discussion. I see religious Christians, pro gun, individual right, less govt libertarians "choosing" to waste votes rather then the lessor of two evils when the lessor really is much closer to their beliefs then not and it saddens me. Gov. Mccullif (sp) former BJ Clinton man is there because 5% or more voted for a libertarian over a t party guy....ridiculous !



Denton said:


> Do we see the continued diminishing of the middle class as the wealthy grow wealthier and the rest cuddle up to the poverty line?
> 
> Are we going to see manufacturing in the U.S. become a world leader, once again?
> 
> ...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

......



Maine-Marine said:


> WHY is oil down?
> WHY is the dollar up?
> 
> Corporate profits are at a high because wages are at a low... Why are US corporate profits so high? Because wages are so low
> ...


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Ripon said:


> The middle class will remain stagnant. The poor will get more hand outs forced by the regime who will buy yet another election. The wealthy will do better.
> 
> The U.S. will not be a manufacturing power. We don't have the work force for it we have the entitlement force that would rather play Xbox..
> 
> ...


I see evil as evil, and none of them are close to my beliefs. To your point, I see them all wanting nothing but to solidify their own power and wealth and not to do the first thing regarding the protection of liberty, individual rights or states rights. You see me as wasting my vote, and I see all who vote for the "lesser of two evils" voting for evil because they are too afraid to take a chance and vote against what they are told must be their only two real choices. Funny, however, that I am not voting for evil. Yes, ridiculous, but I am not that.

Regarding the global chess players; they do enjoy their lifestyle. I don't believe they will lose that in their games. After all, their allegiance is to no country or people. They will be A-OK. As history has shown, it is the people who will die for their cause, and not them.
By the way, they are also the ones who have the majority of my fellow countrymen believing it is a waste of a ballot to vote for anyone but one of their puppets.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> ......


?????????????????


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

Oil may be down but it is not due to a lack of consumption. So long as the consumption is up, there will be layoffs but I don't expect to see massive lay offs. Also, just my opinion, the powers that be haven't needed much of a reason to raise oil prices in the past, so I seriously doubt that we will stay with low oil prices in the future.

If you look for articles about economic collapse, they usually include super high oil prices, so i think we are going to experience a superficial recovery for awhile.

Warning: I'm in the electronics industry, I don't know anything about economics so please take my opinions as opinions.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Sorry I typed out a reply and it was within the quoting of your post so when I hit post it said I hadn't entered a character so I just hit ..... 5x so it'd post....my reply is within your quote...my bad



Maine-Marine said:


> ?????????????????


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## ekim (Dec 28, 2012)

How bad will the republican controlled congress screw the American people that elected them?


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

ekim said:


> How bad will the republican controlled congress screw the American people that elected them?


And, here he is; the one man who is more pessimistic than I am! :rulaiz:


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

They have a lot of other screwing and unscrewing to do first - screwy as they are, the first part should be fun - but who knows? The doom season has been from Oct to march for the last 3 years. 
I am trying to save everything and look for some remote acres or preferably underground. I think the chances and signs are higher this year.


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## ekim (Dec 28, 2012)

Denton said:


> And, here he is; the one man who is more pessimistic than I am! :rulaiz:


Just read the news about how the republican leaders feel about what they can / will do next year and then tell me I'm being pessimistic. I believe they are going to show the demorats how to really screw someone over!


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

IDK how did we do from 94-2000 the last time a republican congree interrupted the radical left?



ekim said:


> How bad will the republican controlled congress screw the American people that elected them?


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> Sorry I typed out a reply and it was within the quoting of your post so when I hit post it said I hadn't entered a character so I just hit
> 
> *It has to be 10 characters*
> ..... 5x so it'd post....
> ...


comments are within your quote


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> IDK how did we do from 94-2000 the last time a republican congree interrupted the radical left?


We staved off Hillarycare for almost 20 years and no new gun control legislation was passed after the Republicans got control. Welfare reform was accomplished and the budget went into surplus.


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## dwight55 (Nov 9, 2012)

Two things I believe in unquestionably: 

1. You cannot continue to borrow today, . . . to pay off yesterday's debts. Eventually, . . . you will be barred from borrowing or will be unable to pay back, . . . and you then are bankrupt, . . . plain and simple.

2. The world is being set up for a global presence, . . . a global "leader" who will "have all the answers". You can blame it on destiny, . . . the Jews, . . . Liberals, . . . the Illuminati, . . . the Trilateral Commission, . . . JFK, . . . Obummer, . . . or on God, . . . take your pick, . . . it'll happen.

Right now, . . . I'm putting my money (no pun intended) on number 1, . . . because at the rate the US is spending the borrowed money, . . . a reckoning is coming, . . . soon.

And whether Alabama or Ohio State wins, . . . won't mean one hill of beans, . . . it's just fluff to keep the masses looking the other way.

May God bless,
Dwight


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

Its time someone hit the reset switch. No more of this too big to fail garbage. It will be bad for maybe a while. But in the long run we won't have $250 million CEO.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

dwight55 said:


> Two things I believe in unquestionably:
> 
> 1. You cannot continue to borrow today, . . . to pay off yesterday's debts. Eventually, . . . you will be barred from borrowing or will be unable to pay back, . . . and you then are bankrupt, . . . plain and simple.
> 
> ...


Yes Sir Dwight. Agree 100%

And to top it off, The Republicans are already starting a propaganda campaign to the "Stupid" public regarding Federal Spending.

They will continue to SAY they are reducing Spending but all they are doing is reducing the rate of INCREASE of spending based upon some fictitious government forecast.

The way this little propaganda game is played is as follows;

For Example....If the Federal Govt spends 3.2 TRILLION this year and some BS Budget Office says they will spend 30 Trillion over the next 7 years, the Republicans will say they will only spend 28.5 Trillion and declare it a victory. They'll proudly will say they decreased spending by 1.5 Trillion..but in reality they still increased Federal Spending every year. On borrowed money and increased taxes to the working folk. FUBAR


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

...."as soon as Russia and China are ready", that when.


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

ekim said:


> How bad will the republican controlled congress screw the American people that elected them?


let me answer that by saying vasoline stock has risen several points.


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## Suntzu (Sep 22, 2014)

Don't have time tonight to write a 10 page response to that trash article... So I'll just take 30 seconds to respond to the first, as I have not even looked at the second one.

"When he was asked what sort of odds he put on a global recession happening, the economist famous for his ominous predictions quickly answered . . . "100 percent."
*100% by 2013... predicted in 2012. *

What else has Marc Faber been doing... Gloom Boom Doom by Marc Faber Clearly no bias there.

Lets look at the market since the 'adjusted to fit' graph cut off in Q1 2014.








DJIA +10%, Precious Metals -10%


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Suntzu said:


> Don't have time tonight to write a 10 page response to that trash article... So I'll just take 30 seconds to respond to the first, as I have not even looked at the second one.
> 
> "When he was asked what sort of odds he put on a global recession happening, the economist famous for his ominous predictions quickly answered . . . "100 percent."
> *100% by 2013... predicted in 2012. *
> ...


Yes Faber has been saying it is coming... WHY... because it is coming... I think the vast majority of folks KNOW "* It is now mathematically impossible for the U.S. government to pay off the U.S. national debt."*

so at what point does it happen...When do folks decide that they will never be repaid and the US PAPER dollar is worthless....

The fact that a prediction has been wrong is not proof that an event will not happen...

Even forbes thinks an event is coming

steve forbes 



-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Honestly ...i see a major financial event (Of *Biblical* Proportions) which will bring in a one world currency, ruler, government....


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

The problem here is the dollar isn't worthless. In fact you get more oil, gold, silver AND labor from your dollar then three years ago. And since no other currency has the capacity, circulation wise, to manage the vast WW trade it's not going to fail in 2015. Nude your time to prep, and prosper.

Collapse will come. Just not in 2015 or 16 for that matter.



Maine-Marine said:


> Yes Faber has been saying it is coming... WHY... because it is coming... I think the vast majority of folks KNOW "* It is now mathematically impossible for the U.S. government to pay off the U.S. national debt."*
> 
> so at what point does it happen...When do folks decide that they will never be repaid and the US PAPER dollar is worthless....
> 
> ...


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## ekim (Dec 28, 2012)

Ripon said:


> IDK how did we do from 94-2000 the last time a republican congree interrupted the radical left?


We will see next year, but I'm not betting on any thing good from the mostly rino's in congress.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

War changes everything


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

The one thing that no one in the Federal Government wants to talk about is the future or long term liabilities that the Feds do not show on their balance sheet. Yes, the $18 Trillion Debt is staggering but the $170+Trillion in long term liability is what will cripple The US of A. 

As Workforce Participation rates continue to decrease and annual deficits continue to increase...the little ponzi scheme that the Feds have been playing will eventually crumble. Probably not this year or next or maybe not in 10 years. But the things that we have discussed in the above posts on this thread, will continue to hamper our ability to prosper as a nation. 

Can we change course?


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> Collapse will come. Just not in 2015 or 16 for that matter.


I Guess we will have to disagree....although as a general observation....

Oil prices are down because the OPEC gang wants to kill US oil independence not because the dollar is stronger


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

Oil prices are down because Saudis are economically targeting their arch enemy Iran and its Nuclear sponsor Russia. Iran is Shiite whilst the House of Saud is Sunni. Saudi oil minister said they are willing to pump at full capacity until oil drops as low as $20 a barrel. If Iran goes nuclear, Saudis already have arrangement to purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Also US oil production is way up.

As long as US currency functions as the world reserve note, the USA has nothing to worry about. Believe it or not, the rest of the world nation's economies are screwed up worse that ours. How they got that bad I don't know.

When China decides to dump US treasury bonds that is when to worry. But THAT will never happen. Would be like shooting them selves directly in the head. Like it or not, USA Treasury Bonds are an indispensable engine "oil" that keeps the world economy system running.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Hawaii Volcano Squad said:


> .....When China decides to dump US treasury bonds that is when to worry. But THAT will never happen.


NEVER????? Do you think they will throw good money after bad forever........


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

If there was someplace safer for China to park their cash they would put it there but there isn't.
Also USA is China's #1 customer.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Oil is down for a LOT of reasons. There is the decrease in usage in America. We use 6% less today then in 2007. There is a dramatic increase in US production thanks to private investment and permits issued after 911 as our gift realized we didn't want dependence on the Middle East. China's economy is near recession mode so they are demanding less. Russia is in near collapse so they don't need as much. There are post here noting the house of Saud going after Iran and Russia which may be a factor. The lower price of oil is a minuscule issue though. It's actually about 1.25% of US GDP which grew at 5% last qtr. 

I agree the fiat US currency will collapse some day, but just not soon. I first read that we would collapse under our debt in 1989. The author then said by 1994 we would collapse. 20 years later he is still saying it's going to happen. Every year people get convinced, usually by people peddling good and other items, that this is the year. 

BRICS should be monitored. The UN needs to be monitored. If either of them make serious moves on monetary issues I'd have greater concern.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Nov 2013 - China Announces That It Is Going To Stop Stockpiling U.S. Dollars

August 2014 -China Cuts U.S. Debt Holdings Again

Dec 2014 China: Turning away from the dollar

The reason we hear about a dollar collapse and we have been hearing about it for years is because many folks see it coming... 1989, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2012....etc.... most people see the light at the end of the tunnel and know it is a speeding train...when it will wreck we do not know... but again many folks see it coming... the government does not want to see it happen and have been doing things to stop it...the problem with that is the FIXES just mean the event will be worse when it happens...

honestly, I do not know when it will happen,..and you do not know when it will not happen...


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## Murphy (Oct 9, 2014)

Blame the Evil Empire--The Federal Reserve

It all starts and ends with the Private Central Banks


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Hawaii Volcano Squad said:


> Oil prices are down because Saudis are economically targeting their arch enemy Iran and its Nuclear sponsor Russia. Iran is Shiite whilst the House of Saud is Sunni. Saudi oil minister said they are willing to pump at full capacity until oil drops as low as $20 a barrel. If Iran goes nuclear, Saudis already have arrangement to purchase nuclear weapons from Pakistan. Also US oil production is way up.
> 
> As long as US currency functions as the world reserve note, the USA has nothing to worry about. Believe it or not, the rest of the world nation's economies are screwed up worse that ours. How they got that bad I don't know.
> 
> When China decides to dump US treasury bonds that is when to worry. But THAT will never happen. Would be like shooting them selves directly in the head. Like it or not, USA Treasury Bonds are an indispensable engine "oil" that keeps the world economy system running.


Actually, I would disagree on the issue of China dumping bonds. If they dump the bonds, they take a hot on the price they would get. We are obligated to pay stated interest and the principal at maturity only. The buyer of the bonds would get a bargain at China's expense.

There would be some difficulty in selling new bonds in that environment, which would force some budget responsibility on our government, which would be a good thing.


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