# Study on What Would Happen in an Influenza Pandemic



## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

Thought this might tickle your fancy. It is a 2-year study from NISAC, under DHS, about supply lines, transportation and fuel impacts from a nationwide influenza pandemic. National Population, Economic, and Infrastructure Impacts of Pandemic Influenza with Strategic Recommendations | NISAC

Click the image to the right to see the PDF. It's pretty interesting. I wonder how realistic it is. So many variables, particularly in human nature, that it would be difficult to really predict how things would go.

Apologies if this has already been posted - a search didn't show anything.


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

I kill the flu by looking at it.


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

I don't give a poop about the flu in particular, but it's fun to see something official about things many of us have contemplated. Sub enterovirus or ebola or the bubonic plague and the story gets interesting. The conclusions don't necessarily apply, but for me, at least, it's still fun to read them.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

I almost have to wonder if a flu pandemic is that much of a threat these days. One thing I notice as time goes on is that while flu is spread widely, it isn't as severe as it has been in the past. I think the flu shots have done some good. Even this enterovirus could have been a serious thing. Instead, I would estimate less than 1000 cases nationwide. Against all odds, modern medicine is making progress.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

thepeartree said:


> I almost have to wonder if a flu pandemic is that much of a threat these days. One thing I notice as time goes on is that while flu is spread widely, it isn't as severe as it has been in the past. I think the flu shots have done some good. Even this enterovirus could have been a serious thing. Instead, I would estimate less than 1000 cases nationwide. Against all odds, modern medicine is making progress.


Its number 8 with pneumonia for over 53,000 deaths, on the leading causes of deaths for 2010. Imagine the number if a flu pandemic would hit.



indie said:


> I don't give a poop about the flu in particular, but it's fun to see something official about things many of us have contemplated. Sub enterovirus or ebola or the bubonic plague and the story gets interesting. The conclusions don't necessarily apply, but for me, at least, it's still fun to read them.


I'm the very opposite. Preventable deaths or deaths that could be mitigated with frequent screenings, are more of a concern simply for the fact that they are generally the leading causes of not only mortality, but morbidity. 

Potentially Preventable Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death (<80 years old) - United States, 2008-2010



> CDC 2010 Leading causes of death
> 
> 1. Heart disease: 596,577
> 2. Cancer: 576,691
> ...


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

I can't have the vaccines for flu or anything else unless I leave the house for a week. So I have to just be careful.


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## ntxwheels (Oct 25, 2014)

At 66 and having beaten Kidney Cancer I keep well aware of what is going on around me disease wise, for the simple fact, I just don't spring back and recover like I did when I was younger. For example; when I was told of the cancer August of last year, I was told it was all confined to the Kidney and the tumor growing on it. Surgery was the best option and that's what I chose thinking I would be back on my feet headed to the range in a couple weeks.
Uh huh. Boy did I have that one wrong. It was 6 months before I was back to 100%.

The wife and I always now carry hand sanitizer in our vehicles and use it, pardon the term, religiously after going into a store, the mall etc. We also try not to get involved in large crowds any where.

Don't get me wrong, we're not paranoid we're just careful because other people for the most part aren't.


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## TG (Jul 28, 2014)

I'm immune, my kids might be too, never had flu, stomach viruses either. I wonder how many others (% of population) don't get sick.


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## Ice Queen (Feb 16, 2014)

Thanks! Looks very interesting. Some good bedtime reading.


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## Ice Queen (Feb 16, 2014)

In terms of pandemic, it won't be seasonal flu. If you want goosebumps look up all the Avian Influenzas. Not to mention there are labs working on making them more contagious.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Sockpuppet;201719
[URL="http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/pdf/wk/mm6317.pdf" said:


> Potentially Preventable Deaths from the Five Leading Causes of Death (<80 years old) - United States, 2008-2010[/URL]


George Bush or Republicans pushing grand ma off a cliff did not make the list???


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

thepeartree said:


> I almost have to wonder if a flu pandemic is that much of a threat these days. One thing I notice as time goes on is that while flu is spread widely, it isn't as severe as it has been in the past. I think the flu shots have done some good. Even this enterovirus could have been a serious thing. Instead, I would estimate less than 1000 cases nationwide. Against all odds, modern medicine is making progress.


There is no "the flu". Each one is different. I strongly suggest that before people wright off the flu they google "The Spanish Flu". It killed more people then WW1. As the saying goes, a healthy man with no symptoms could have breakfast with his family in the morning and be dead by suppertime. Bear in mind that this was at a time when most of the U.S. population lived in the country, not in cities, that there was no International plane travel, the fastest travel for the general population across the U.S. took days and across the ocean took weeks. Think about what would happen if such a virulent form of the flu should occur today.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

Notsoyoung said:


> There is no "the flu". Each one is different. I strongly suggest that before people wright off the flu they google "The Spanish Flu". It killed more people then WW1. As the saying goes, a healthy man with no symptoms could have breakfast with his family in the morning and be dead by suppertime. Bear in mind that this was at a time when most of the U.S. population lived in the country, not in cities, that there was no International plane travel, the fastest travel for the general population across the U.S. took days and across the ocean took weeks. Think about what would happen if such a virulent form of the flu should occur today.


Considering that the Spanish Influenza was the chief reason for the capitulation of Germany and the end of WWI, consider the context that such would mean today with the above said, despite the advances in medical care. There is no way that healthcare today could render adequate treatment for the quick influx of 50,000 people.


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

Sockpuppet said:


> I'm the very opposite. *Preventable deaths* or deaths that could be mitigated with frequent screenings, are more of a concern simply for the fact that they are generally the leading causes of not only mortality, but morbidity.


The fact that they're preventable makes them not quite as interesting to contemplate, I guess. Not that they are discounted or less of a concern, but they don't lend themselves toward flights of morbid fancy quite as well.



Jeep said:


> I can't have the vaccines for flu or anything else unless I leave the house for a week. So I have to just be careful.


Why? Compromised immune system in your house?



TorontoGal said:


> I'm immune, my kids might be too, never had flu, stomach viruses either. I wonder how many others (% of population) don't get sick.


We don't either. When you start thinking of a massive deadly pandemic, there will always be pockets of survivors for that reason - different types of immunities. But Bob might survive influenza only to be wiped out by ebola. Just fun to think about when you're avoiding working.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

I suppose it is fortunate for me that I don't like crowds of people. Courtesy and respect seem to me out the window. People walk like senseless cows and don't even have the cow's sense to walk in a line. Rather, the mindless morons would prefer to walk as if they are Wyatt Earp and Company, walking to the OK Coral.

I went in to Sam's as the wife was in there shopping. Too many cups of coffee before heading out, you understand.
I witnessed three idiots leaving the restroom without washing their hands. How hard is it to wash your hands? Never mind talking about the dolts who aren't smart enough to cover their mouths when coughing or sneezing. 

Am I immune to the flu? I'm not about to say that, but I have not had it since I was a kid. I do expect getting a cold every year or two. If it were simply being cautious, I would evade a cold as I seem to do the flu.


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

And more: The Story of Influenza - The Threat of Pandemic Influenza - NCBI Bookshelf

Fascinating read. What I want to know is why all the picking on pregnant women? Ebola is harder on pregnant women and of the Spanish flu, "The single group most likely to die if infected were pregnant women."

Does anyone know age demographics for ebola? I'm curious to know if it's similar. Makes one wonder if this isn't divine population control.


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

By the way, I'm not obsessing about influenza, just keep following the rabbit hole and getting more interesting reads. Based on percentages, if we had an influenza pandemic like the 1918 one, the equivalent of all of America would be wiped out.


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