# NOAA: U.S. Winter Outlook



## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

Deleted.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Farmers almanac does a better job than the weather geeks.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

hawgrider said:


> Farmers almanac does a better job than the weather geeks.


A number of independent studies demonstrate that predictions made by the Farmer's Almanac, have not shown them more accurate than chance. Fortune cookie or tabloid weather forecasting at its finest.

Historical trends and dynamic forecasting utilize mathematical and physical models to calculate weather forecasts, and are far more reliable.


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## tks (Oct 22, 2014)

I'm hoping it's not as cold as it was last year, it was awful, one of the coldest in 50 years here. We did get lucky, all those horrible snow storms just went around us every time, which was strange.

I need a few more warmish days before thanksgiving, I've got one more turkey tag to fill.


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## BullseyePrecision (Jun 10, 2014)

Farmers almanac has been accurate for the last 10 years my guess is that it will be accurate again this year.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> A number of independent studies demonstrate that predictions made by the Farmer's Almanac, have not shown them more accurate than chance. Fortune cookie or tabloid weather forecasting at its finest.
> 
> Historical trends and dynamic forecasting utilize mathematical and physical models to calculate weather forecasts, and are far more reliable.


It's good enough for me. "Don't need a weatherman to tell which the wind blows" Dylan


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

The same models that predicted global warming and the hurricane season that wasn't. We have freeze potentials for south Texas. Warm my ass.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

Piratesailor said:


> The same models that predicted global warming and the hurricane season that wasn't. We have freeze potentials for south Texas. Warm my ass.


Don't confuse Al Gore and company for rational science. NOAA has this winter's predictions for a South Texas as cooler and wetter.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

I've only been using the almanac a couple years but it has been surprisingly accurate so far. The older farmers out here swear by them. Sometimes I think the weatherguessers on TV just draw their predictions out of a hat.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

BullseyePrecision said:


> Farmers almanac has been accurate for the last 10 years my guess is that it will be accurate again this year.


Farmers Almanac publishes vague predictions in a manner that a carny, magician, spiritual medium, or a grifter would. Not to mention that most tend to be amazed at the correct results, but forgets the rest.


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

Do I have to remind you folks that this is the same group of idiots who year after year (including this year) predicted many major hurricanes hitting our East and Gulf coasts?


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## Titan6 (May 19, 2013)

Interesting Data thanks for posting the information!!


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> Historical trends and dynamic forecasting utilize mathematical and physical models to calculate weather forecasts, and are far more reliable.


Might want to learn some of the old American Indian methods of observing weather and forecasting the type of weather ...... you know encase all the electronic gadgetry is not available at some point. This is why this site exists right ?


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## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

hawgrider said:


> Might want to learn some of the old American Indian methods of observing weather and forecasting the type of weather ...... you know encase all the electronic gadgetry is not available at some point. This is why this site exists right ?


Doing a rain dance does not work however.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Doing a rain dance does not work however.


Agree. 
Indians had some interesting other ways to broadly predict the type of winter that may be coming.

Even science is not a science.....LOL 
In fact they are wrong more than they are right that's why we call them the weather guessers.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

hawgrider said:


> Might want to learn some of the old American Indian methods of observing weather and forecasting the type of weather ...... you know encase all the electronic gadgetry is not available at some point. This is why this site exists right ?


It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.

Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the heck the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Is it going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be a very cold winter." The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

"Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
> 
> Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what the heck the weather was going to be.
> 
> ...


I ran into that earlier this morning..... got a chuckle from it.:grin:


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

Some of the old saying my Great Grandparents used to convey to me. Though the observations would only provide a few hours of forecast predictions. I suspect the American Native Indians used similar methods, and couldn't predict weather weeks or months in advance, save general seasonal predictions



> The higher the clouds, the finer the weather.
> 
> Clear Moon, frost soon.
> 
> ...


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> Some of the old saying my Great Grandparents used to convey to me. Though the observations would only provide a few hours of forecast predictions. I suspect the American Native Indians used similar methods, and couldn't predict weather weeks or months in advance, save general seasonal predictions
> 
> The higher the clouds, the finer the weather.
> 
> ...


Might be a good Idea to quote that source with the link and credit. I read that earlier you copied it verbatim.

They would judge by the the amounts of mast (Acorns), Height of paper wasp nests and such. You can bet they were not always right either just like the TV weather pros and there computer models that's all I'm saying. Modern trickery is not much better than old school methods in the long run.

And to quote you again Sockpuppet from your sig line "To Catch a (Farm) Predator", starring "Hawgrider"

My reply -That's right I am the predator not the prey! And I will add- When your garbage goes off your sig I will take you off the spot light on my sig as well. The ball is in your court.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

hawgrider said:


> Might be a good Idea to quote that source with the link and credit. I read that earlier you copied it verbatim.


It would be a good idea if you would know what the Hell you know upon the subject of copyright laws. Otherwise, it would be wise for you to take note of these other English proverbs, that aren't subject to copyright laws either:

A fool uttereth all his mind.
Don't go off half-cocked.
If you don't say it, you will not have to unsay it.


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## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Turtle.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Turtle.


Sssshhhhhh. Don't mention slow moving animals around him. :lol:


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

hawgrider said:


> Might be a good Idea to quote that source with the link and credit. I read that earlier you copied it verbatim.


I disagree. There obviously was no intent to plagiarize as he put it in a quotation box.


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## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Central U.S. takes the plunge with brutal cold, snow

We only have three inches here. Daughter had more than ten just across the cities.

Sockpuppet - leave it.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Central U.S. takes the plunge with brutal cold, snow
> 
> We only have three inches here. Daughter had more than ten just across the cities.
> 
> Sockpuppet - leave it.


Merely a joke. No more than anyone else does on here.

Though........"Many a true word is spoken in jest." Need I have to cite that too? :lol:


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> It would be a good idea if you would know what the Hell you know upon the subject of copyright laws. Otherwise, it would be wise for you to take note of these other English proverbs, that aren't subject to copyright laws either:
> 
> A fool uttereth all his mind.
> Don't go off half-cocked.
> If you don't say it, you will not have to unsay it.


Prove it and post the link from where you copied it verbatum. Hmm a little touchy as you made it appear your grandparents told you that folk lore when in fact they did not as I read the same exact info this morning LMAO! Don't get your undies in a bunch you just plain got busted now be a man and fess up!


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

DerBiermeister said:


> I disagree. There obviously was no intent to plagiarize as he put it in a quotation box.


With no link.

BTW what was above the quote box was part of the quote that he left out of the quote.


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## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Enough! Both of you take it to pm's.


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## hawgrider (Oct 24, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Enough! Both of you take it to pm's.


If I cannot state my views and express myself with free speech then help me out the door and ban me now as I must not belong here. Sorry you feel that way but I rarely start it but i always am at the finish.


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## Deebo (Oct 27, 2012)

Well it sure is warming up in here...


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

MrsInor said:


> Doing a rain dance does not work however.


Washing my car is usually one of the better predictors of rain...


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## dannydefense (Oct 9, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Washing my car is usually one of the better predictors of rain...


Nothing I drive is so fancy that I need it to be sparkling, so after experiencing this phenomena for quite a few years I've since adopted the rain wash. When it rains, I drive through a large puddle at a minimum speed of 40mph. Car, washed.


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