# H7N9 Avian Influenza



## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

This is a virus worth watching. It has never been found in humans before and therefore we totally lack immunity. It mutates at a rate of 8 times greater than regular influenza. Thus far, it appears to either not be very contagious human to human or else we don't have a good grasp on how many are infected and don't get seriously ill. It's not spreading like wildfire, yet, but, it's an interesting germ. They are not sure what the reservoir of the disease is. Birds do carry the germ, but appear well. The germ has mutated to exist in mammals. As of this morning 38 people in 5 provinces were infected and 10 died. 11 are in critical condition most on ventilators and some on ECMO (extracorporeal membrane oxygenation) and dialysis, as well. I believe only 1 person, a child has been discharged from the hospital. Some patients have not had contact with birds. A few patients are stable. It is resistant to Tamiflu and partially resistant to Relenza. Most patients were given immune globulin. The level of care given in China actually appeared quite sophisticated. No vaccine exists for birds or humans, and likely a human vaccine won't be developed for 7 months. As things stand, it is NOT spreading like crazy, but, it bears watching due to its mutagenicity and mankind's lack of immunity. It appears to take 5 to 10 days from first symptoms to severe illness. Incubation period is not yet known. No cases have been reported outside of China at this point.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/12/w...ed-on-3-who-died-from-h7n9-bird-flu.html?_r=0


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## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

Thanks for posting on this, IngaLisa! Very helpful to read your updates. Keeping a watchful eye on this new deadly strain of mutagenic virus.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I have been watching this for about two weeks, and the Chinese CDC and later WHO would post daily new cases and fatalities. China did detain 10 bloggers for 'posting lies', so, the information coming from China now versus two weeks ago, is paltry. Today, WHO announced they will not give further daily updates. I am not sure what the Chinese CDC will do. Cases proven by nucleic testing stand at 40, and there have been 11 deaths as of today at 5pm in China (our morning). The last blog post I saw, said hospitals are seeing a rush of admissions of children, which doesn't surprise me, as parents all over the world are generally very protective of kids. I will try to find more on the virus as much as I can. Mainstream media is very slow to report on it. Right now, for the near future, I do not think it poses any major danger here, but, as I said, it mutates very fast. It bears watching. NCoV (Novel Corona Virus) is also a slow mover, but also bears watching.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Vaccine development for H7N9 flu problematic - Health - CBC News

Very interesting read.^


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

First case in Beijing. It's very difficult to get information as to how widespread this is.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

H7N9 death toll rises as 'family clusters' probed -- Shanghai Daily | ???? -- English Window to China New

A good explanation of why this avian influenza is different.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Today's stats from China, 49 confirmed cases, 11 deaths. Still no solid information on disease reservoirs. Appears to be birds, but virus is adapted to mammals. Several family member clusters are identified, but, it is impossible to say if it is human to human or if they were simultaneously exposed environmentally.

It's interesting to ponder, if H7N9 is geographically all over China, how could North Korea avoid having cases? They are pretty close the way the bird flies.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Update: 60 cases, 13 dead. For strictly avian influenza, bird to human, it is racking up fairly sizeable numbers pretty fast. (It was 49/11 at bedtime for me.) Something else is going on IMHO. If this doesn't die down in the next two weeks, we have a problem.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Can you imagine if H7N9 were to get into the Canada geese population? In my area it could be disastrous the way they live among us with impunity.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

10 new cases in 24 hours with two deaths in the same time period in a country as crouded as China doesn't seem that alarming to me. If it begins to spread exponentially then it would be something to be concerned about. If the increase case number doubles in a twenty-four hour period and the deaths with it then it would be alarming.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

It's geographical spread is troubling. It's occurring in many provinces now. Very widespread. Most crowded countries like Cambodia, see maybe 140 at most cases of H5N1 in one year. In China, we are seeing 60 H7N9 infections in a matter of 8 weeks with a sharp increase recently. Bird flu is generally a very slow spreader and seldom is the bird flu as adaptable to mammals as is H7N9. H7N9 is very different from other avian influenzas. I am not culling my poultry yet, but, I will be doing some additional precautions to prevent as much migratory bird contact as I can. It's not time to panic, it's time to ponder.


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## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

I am very concerned was thinking the other day maybe i need to cut chicken out on my meals and be vegetarian . i don't like beef or pork so chicken. is all i eat.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I don't think you need to cut chicken or eggs out of your diet. H7N9 would not be the reason to do that. H7N9 is adapting to mammals as well. Unless you live in China, in an area affected by H7N9, I don't think you have much to fear. H7N9 is dangerous in terms of pandemic, IF, and this is a big IF it develops human to human transmission. There is some reason to be concerned it may do this, because unlike other avian influenza viruses, H7N9 appears to have a very high mutation rate, and already possesses gene segments that contribute to adaptability to infecting mammals. I raise poultry at my little farm, and I have no plans other than to try to keep them more isolated from migratory birds. If H7N9 continues to spread, I will isolate them completely from the environment and use precautions when I enter their containment. If it enters my region, I will cull them. I would say at this point, unless you live in or around the involved provinces in China, don't be afraid. That said, we are overdue for a pandemic, and it should be included in your prep plans.

Given that H7N9 has been stealthy in chickens, I will use precautions next time I butcher chickens. I will use a mask and goggles, which is something I never did before. Once chicken is thoroughly cooked, the virus would be dead.

The danger of H7N9 is only in its potential to mutate, and the severe disease which it causes. If it develops human to human, or if it affects many breeds of migratory birds to which we all have contact, then we have a huge problem. H7N9 has infected a lot of people in a short period of time compared to other avian influenza, but most people in China have a lot of contact with live poultry, poultry butchering, as well as keeping other live birds in their crowded living conditions. All of SE Asia has the same relationship with poultry. I am a big believer of raising poultry in the small farm environment, versus a CAFO. I think we would have less avian influenza if we did that, but, raising chickens and other poultry in crowded city conditions and butchering live chickens at a market and mixing poultry from many situations is a recipe for developing new germs. I won't even go to the county fair chicken barns and then go into my own coop without cleaning myself, my clothing and shoes. It's best to only enter your own coop with a specially designated set of clothes, especially boots.

If you enjoy chicken, keep eating it, just don't buy it live from a market where they butcher it right on the street. Stay out of live poultry markets.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

WHO says no poultry contact in some China bird flu cases - AlertNet


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Latest statement from the United States CDC regarding H7N9. It seems pretty honest and forthcoming.

H7N9 Flu and You, Basic Information - CDC


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

103 confirmed cases, 20 dead, no disease reservoir identified. New mutations continue to be identified. 40% of cases have had no contact with poultry. One asymptomatic carrier was identified. No indication, as of yet, of substantial human to human transmission, however, it does have the genetic profile to accomplish this.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

IngaLisa - I have been following your thread since you started it. I greatly appreciate the info. But could you please define a couple of your terms because I have no idea what they mean:

Disease reservoir

Asymptomatic carrier

What are these? Is this bad or good? Sorry for being an idiot, but this seems important and I do not want to miss some critical point because I do not understand the vocabulary.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Oh, I am sorry. My background is in public health, as a public health nurse, so, I just assume folks know the terms. I apologize. You are not an idiot, at all. My mistake. A reservoir, is basically, which species is carrying and spreading the disease. Usually in bird flu, they are able to find large numbers of certain birds that carry the virus. This time they can't. The number of birds that they are finding infected, are low. Birds do not appear to be getting sick from H7N9 either, making it even harder to figure out which breed of bird could carry it. It is also a 'mammalized' virus, meaning it has mutated well enough to survive in humans and even to go from human to human. It just hasn't spread human to human very fast....yet. The reservoir could be mice, rats, bats, pigeons, pigs or people. We don't know. It's odd for it to take this long to find out.

An asymptomatic carrier, is some one who has tested positive for H7N9, but remained healthy for some reason. We have only one case of this so far, and it is a 4 year old boy. It is possible he shed the virus to others, OR, perhaps he did not. We do not know. There could be more asymptomatic carriers. Think of Typhoid Mary. She never was sick but she shed the germ and others got sick.

H7N9 has the potential to be very dangerous, because humans have never had this virus before, and we lack immunity. So far, if caught early, it seems to respond to Tamiflu and Relenza, however it carries genes to make it resistant to both of these drugs. Add global travel to this, it is a recipe for disaster.

All cases have pretty much required enormous efforts in ICU to keep them alive. This could not be maintained in a pandemic. We only have a few ventilators per hospital. They required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation machines (which are heart-lung bypass machines), artificial liver and dialysis. We have very few of these machines. In a pandemic, we would not have resources to treat people that needed that kind of care.

I have seen avian influenzas burn out. It happens. Let's hope for the best. H5N1 is still out there too, and it is very dangerous as well, but it seems more linked to poultry, and it has not ever spread human to human, yet.

Right now, about 20% of those diagnosed, die. I doubt it will stay that bad, I feel the mortality rate will drop to maybe 10% as more get it. I feel there are cases out there, where people survive, and are not diagnosed. We can't really say how high the mortality rate will be for a while yet. 

What we are watching for, is human to human transmission. They say it has happened in 3 clusters, but it is hard to prove, because, people in the same household are also exposed to the same environment.

Technology allows us to see these pandemics in the making very early on. Don't let the low numbers fool you. An avian flu has NEVER racked up numbers this fast, ever. This is the most rapid spread of avian influenza I have ever seen.

Again, I raise poultry, and I am not panicking. I am observing what is going on. At this point, I have done nothing other than my usual hygiene for my chickens. I do plan on building big confinement pens with roofing for my 2 dozen hens, to keep them from migratory birds, but right now, our migratory birds are here and not a threat, as far as I know. I live on a migratory flyway for a lot of waterfowl, so, I am concerned. 

I do know that N95 masks go pretty fast. In a pinch, you can use the cheap masks OVER your N95 to make your N95 last longer. You also need goggles. Flu enters thru your eyes as well.

Pandemic SHTF scenarios are no different than the other ones, perhaps they evolve slower, because we have hope that, the disease will be slow, that the systems will still work, etc.

History Channel did a good show, the Day after Armageddon or something like that, regarding a pandemic, and how it will play out, and it was pretty accurate, I think.

That said, we are NOT in a pandemic situation yet. We have a disease in China, with a lot of unanswered questions, that does have the potential to develop into a pandemic, under the 'right' circumstances. It bears watching, but, I think it is fine to go on with our lives and not get too absorbed with H7N9 until we have more information about it. These diseases develop in fits and starts, and it could be weeks before we have answers. I think it just pays to be ready, because once it blows, there will be billions of people competing for limited resources.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Oh, a few more things I forgot. There is no vaccine for H7N9 for people or poultry. When they say they are vaccinating poultry, it is probably for H5N1 or they are still vaccinating people for H1N1. 

Another thing to consider, the list of the sick skews towards older patients. Of course it would because more of China's people are old. The one child rule was enacted, and thus, there are far fewer people under 40, and even fewer under 20. We will continue to see more people over 50 come down with this disease because there are more of them. Period.

Also, older people still are engaged in professions which put them in greater contact with animals. Often times they are the retired grandparent who goes to the market and gets the live chicken or duck that they prepare for their family. Many families in China live with several generations in one dwelling.

Older people tend to die of seasonal flu at a much higher rate, so it is not surprising that they are getting sick and dying of this more as well. I am not sure this will hold true if H7N9 becomes pandemic and produces a 'cytokine storm'.

If any one is interested in 'cytokine storms' I will gladly go thru the basics of them, but in the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic, more young adults died, because a cytokine storm is basically an overstimulated immune system, that kills the patient. Younger and older patients have less vigorous immune systems and therefore a cytokine storm doesn't kill them. Those with the healthiest immune systems die from cytokine storms, and those are usually healthy, vigorous young adults. We do not know if H7N9 produces a cytokine storm. We do know it produces multiorgan failure starting with the lungs, moving on to kidneys and then other organs.

If we do find other people who have survived it with a mild case or other asymptomatic carriers, we will learn more about the disease.

Continue to prep as you plan. I would say for urban preppers, pandemic is a more urgent scenario, because it is harder to survive a pandemic in an urban area. Even shared ventilation systems in apartment buildings could spread the germ. Urban pandemic prepping takes more thought. I would say if bugging out is an option, do it, provided there is no quarantine you have to get thru. The government will quarantine areas if there have been cases. It is feasible you won't be able to leave your area in a pandemic situation, so it is best to watch and anticipate what moves you would make before you end up on the wrong side of the quarantine. If this germ goes human to human, the most likely places it will show up first, are in places with international airports, but the way people travel these days, it could be any where.

Again, we are very, very, very far away from any of this being a reality, but, if it takes off, when it takes off, one must act quickly to ensure your own and your family's safety.

The virus has not yet proven that it is going to sustainably spread from human to human. When it makes that jump, then I will get more nervous and I will certainly keep you informed, if you are interested.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Thank-you VERY much IngaLisa! I would normally click "like", but given the nature of the topic, I think I will just offer my gratitude for your excellent explanation.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

As an RT I find this fascinating Thanks for an excellent thread


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

The current count is 109, the most interesting development was that a 36 year old male was diagnosed, in a new province, Shandong. He is in critical condition. Nine contacts are being watched for symptoms. (In my opinion, they should be tested, but, I don't know their procedures over there.) He was not employed in the poultry industry. It appears he may have lived around a 100 yards from a live market, but it isn't known if that is a factor. 100 yards is a long way for a germ to fly, but it could attach to clothing or shoes, or even hair and make its way into the eyes, nose or mouth. Of 109 cases, 21-22? have died. Most remain in critical or serious condition. A small number, under 5, I believe, have been discharged. Health officials in Hong Kong believe double the number are infected. I don't know how they came to this conclusion, but, they probably have much more information than I do. So far, it doesn't seem to have made that big move to rapid human to human transmission. Why it hasn't done that is a mystery, it appears to be capable of doing that.

It was fairly slow in terms of numbers of cases, but a case in a younger patient, in a new geographic area, is of interest. Again, it's a matter of sitting and waiting to see what Mother Nature decides to do with this virus.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

News on H7N9 from China has dropped to a trickle. This could be good, perhaps they have nothing to report, then again, Taiwan reported its first case of H7N9 in a businessman who routinely travelled to China. Upon returning from a trip to China, he became ill and is now hospitalized in Taiwan. I am finding news on this entire situation difficult to get, especially in China.

Interestingly, the business sites and journals are the first place I go, because it appears that the goal is to protect business interests. So, we get a lot of 'move along, nothing to see her folks, go home and have chicken dinner'. If anything much pops up, I will let you know.

It's possible that H7N9 is slowing down or it's possible that the information spigot has been turned off.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

H7N9 is a virus worth worrying about : Nature News & Comment


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I am going to be rather restrained in terms of what information I pass on, mostly because, there is a LOT of garbage out there. I see no reason to scare the crap out of people for no reason, yet, I firmly believe in preparedness. There are fearmongers who do spread rumors, yet there is a fair amount of suppression of data as well. It's hard to ferret out what is worth reporting.

I am going to pass this along, with a caveat, I can't vett this as true. It is being reported that 3 hospital personnel that cared for the Taiwanese business man while he was in the hospital, have become ill, with respiratory symptoms. We do NOT, NOT, yet know if they tested positive for H7N9. There have been cases where people initially tested negative, and upon further testing, were indeed positive. The throat swabs have at times come back negative only to have further testing come in positive. Further polymerase chain reaction testing (where they look for the actual DNA of the 'germ') takes longer, but is much more valuable.

IF, big if here, these 3 health care professionals are positive, we would have a clear case of human to human transmission. Again, he had many contacts, most of whom have cleared the incubation period (7 days according to CDC--It could be longer---we don't know). 103 health care workers who wore protective equipment are still be monitored. (Chances are they will be fine). I do not know if the 3 with symptoms wore protective equipment, apparently a few did not but which ones they were has not been communicated. I don't know how he got from Jiangsu China to Taiwan, perhaps he flew on a plane or perhaps he used a medical transport. I do not know of those people are considered 'contacts'. He has been in the hospital since April 16th, so, Taiwan knew about this for a pretty long time before coming clean on this. That is a long time before informing the public in my opinion. On the other hand, if only 3 people got it from him, given his travels from mainland China to Taiwan, at this point, it doesn't seem too terribly virulent ('catchy'), although if you are the unfortunate one who gets it, right now 20% die, (CFR= case fatality rate) making it highly 'pathogenic', (making you quite sick or even dead). 

My biggest reason for trying to keep people alerted is for those who are in urban, high density regions. It's just harder to keep isolated so your preps take more effort. Urbanites also generally have less storage space for food and water, and they may have shared ventilation systems. I recommend HEPA filters. It beats nothing. They also have to deal with waste accumulation if that system fails. Highly prepared suburbanites, residential semi-rural, and rural-farm dwellers, can ride out pandemics better if infrastructure fails. Pandemics are classified just like hurricanes. Category 1-2 things will just roll along, as it goes up the scale to 5, things get nastier. I do not know enough about our quarantine procedures to comment on how that would work in our country. I don't know what China did either to 'quarantine'. It seems little, because they allowed on woman to take her terminally ill husband HOME from the hospital to die. Hmmm. That seems really odd, given he could be contagious with a new flu.

Right now, thank goodness, it appears to take a lot of contact to catch it from a human with it. It's been spreading slowly. Let's hope it stays that way.

If you are a homesteader depending on chickens as your sole source of meat, you may want to diversify, if this continues to spread. That is what we are going to do. It's a shame, because chickens are such an incredible food source. The egg alone is miraculous as a food source. :/ Rabbits are probably a good choice. By Fall, if you raise chickens, and this is still spreading, you should probably consider containment and roofing, to keep out as much contact with migratory birds as possible. Chickens with H7N9 do not appear ill. They can spread the germ to you, and you could get very sick. If it spreads to this area, I would use protective clothing and masks for as long as I am able to feel it isn't a risk to my family. I would not hesitate to cull chickens if I felt they were a threat. As of now, the only chickens with this highly pathogenic strain of H7N9 are in SE China. Other regions of the world do not appear to have poultry with this strain of H7N9, as of yet. Even SE China, doesn't have a large percent of it's poultry and fowl infected. It's a fluid situation.

In the past, when we butchered chickens, I never thought to wear any protection. It just seemed an act of nature to me to do this. I guess our world is changing. Next time I butcher chickens for meat, I will wear a mask, goggles and gloves, and my scrubs, lol. (I do wear vinyl gloves when I gut them these days, but years ago, I didn't even think of it.)


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

**Update: The 3 hospital personnel that are showing symptoms, DID have on protective gear, but had prolonged contact. We still do not know if they are H7N9 infected, only that they are showing some type of symptoms.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

IngaLisa said:


> **Update: The 3 hospital personnel that are showing symptoms, DID have on protective gear, but had prolonged contact. We still do not know if they are H7N9 infected, only that they are showing some type of symptoms.


Any idea what protective gear they were wearing?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

No idea. The Taiwanese newspaper just said, they were wearing protective gear. I assume it is what they show in their 'drills'. The white hooded paper suits, gloves, masks and goggles, but, I really can't say. Those pleated masks you can get for cheap, are worthless, and you need eye protection that won't let in microorganisms.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

A little more clarification. The 52 year old man fell ill 3 days after returning to Taiwan from mainland China. I assume if he felt healthy, he traveled by commercial air and went thru the airport. The exact date of his return, and the date he reported to a doctor, is a point of some confusion. The 3 health care workers with symptoms, have as of yet, not been diagnosed. It could be routine sniffles, I don't know. (Although that hardly seems worth the press mentioning.) China has reported no additional cases, which is really odd. More would be expected under the best of circumstances. Actually, China has been reporting fairly low numbers the last few days. I am somewhat suspicious given that this whole affair affects commerce, or the lack thereof. I find it ironic that the business journals are always the first to scoop the stories on spread of disease, and a week later the WHO puts out a statement. :/


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Cases 114, dead 23. Over 60 in critical condition. One new province had a case, Jiangxi, I believe. I have read some reports on the Chinese medical system, and I wasn't impressed with their triage, nor their protective practices as patients come in for diagnosis. Also, China billed a family over $12,500 dollars for the care of a younger male patient who died. (I imagine that would be like $250K here, but, I admit, I don't know the exchange rate). They don't have any government health care and the Chinese can't afford private insurance. I assume a lot of people would rather die than leave their families in horrible debt. Of course, this will just expose more people and spread disease. I don't know how China resolved the billing matters. I wonder if we are seeing the true case rate. I suspect many Chinese will try traditional Chinese medicine before they consider going to western hospitals, and many may forgo care all together. A nurse broke the story of H7N9, when she was appalled that the hospital didn't want to give the staff protective equipment. I assume she was thinking it was SARS or H5N1, not some new flu. She tweeted it on Weibo (Chinese twitter) and ended up breaking the H7N9 story, or we may still know nothing. I wonder what became of her.

Also, it appears there are a lot of false negatives in testing before the positive test shows.

Not much other news on it today.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

The fact that the rate of infection is not progressively getting worse and that the mortality rate is not increasing makes this seem like a non-event to me.
I admit that I am a minister and not a health care professional but If this was a coming pandemic I would expect to see a trigonometric rise in both infections and mortality rates. So far it seems to be climbing at a decreasing rate and considering the population density and lack of medical care it just doesn't look noteworthy.

Am I missing something?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I agree it seems a slow starter. I don't agree it is a dud. Every one expects to see fireworks. It doesn't happen that way. If it wasn't for today's technology, and the fact that a nurse used Twitter, to spill the beans, no one would pay any attention. (I am wondering what jail she is rotting in.) I am not saying this is a pandemic strain. It may be a dud. It would be good if it were a dud because a lot about this virus is not boding well for humanity. I am hoping it has to do with dirty butchering practices and aerosolizing of body fluids in Chinese markets. It seems the most likely cause of many of the cases, about 40% of them. 60% of the people got it via some other contact, likely contaminated environmental surfaces. The virus survives on surfaces. Twenty years ago, you didn't know a pandemic was upon you, until it was upon you, now you know as soon as something slightly out of the ordinary occurs in some remote region of the world. If you prep for pandemics, then this one is worth pondering. If not, that's fine.

This flu is dangerous because of a combination of factors not previously and concomitantly seen in one influenza virus: 1) It doesn't make the bird sick, not one bit, and birds are everywhere. It's not just in chickens. It's in migratory birds. Birds crap all over. Migratory birds interact with farm flocks unless the flock is locked in a CAFO and drugged out of his feathered brain. Even then, some unsuspecting worker accidentally can transfer crap from his shoe onto his blue booty, and voila, 2.1 million dead chickens in 4 buildings. 2) A 20% mortality rate is hideous. 3) Testing for it is not easy because it doesn't reside in the upper respiratory system....it lives in the lower lung. You have to cough up a good clod for them to test it. By the time you are coughing up a clod, you are drop dead sick. A lot of preliminary throat swabs come up negative. 4) It has a very high mutation rate and already appears like more of a mammal flu than an avian one. It's been back and forth thru at least one mammal species if not several, including man. 5) It infects humans much more readily than H5N1. Even if it isn't human to human, bird to human could still pose a public health issue. 6) It's possible it has already passed human to human, we just can't verify that yet. I agree, it isn't YET at the point where it is doing that proficiently, but, it's a clever stealth virus. It hasn't mutated fast to cause human to human, but, hey, it's in no hurry. It's not on our timetable. It has several reservoirs to live in. We just happen to be the one reservoir that gets real sick. &7) It has at least a 10 day incubation period, which, if it goes H2H, leaves a lot of possibly shedding virus before they have an idea they are sick. 8) It has several DNA segments that are associated with resistance to Tamiflu and Relenza. The drugs still appear to work some of the time, if they are taken early.

This virus has only one small step to take to be a real mess, and that is to develop dependable human to human transmission. It's been rather dull in that regard, but it sure has been smart in every other regard. It's out there now, and it isn't going away. I suspect it will be quite a while before it makes a human to human jump, but, that is conjecture. It could be tomorrow (but believe me, you won't know it for weeks) OR, it could be never.

If I didn't live in SE China, I wouldn't do anything special in terms of my behavior. I would certainly watch this to see how and where it spreads. I have a good size flock of chickens, and they are out doing their usual things, and I had my bacon and eggs for breakfast, as usual. My chickens are not meeting their maker unless there is a very good reason to cull them, and I am not planning on that occurring real soon.

I would be a bit more hesitant to get on a plane and eat chicken in China, tho.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Today I was training at the hospital I work at. They are still talking H1N1. How much of the healthcare community is in this state, and how long to change focus and training if the virus mutates?


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Too Long, if they have gotten the message yet.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

There have been several previous attempts to make an H7N9 vaccine. Humans don't seem to develop a response to the vaccines we have made thus far.

H1N1 is the same flu we had in 2009, and it WAS a nasty flu, but, it's not THIS kind of flu. We have a vaccine for H1N1. Most of us have had it. It was given out in 2009, and then again included in the seasonal vaccines in the years after. 

H5N1 is another nasty avian to human flu, which has a very high mortality rate, but this one has less of a chance of going human to human than H7N9 does, and H5N1 makes birds sick, H7N9 does not make chickens sick.

If H7N9 gets into the migratory birds of North America, it could get into domestic birds and into people. That is one way we can get it. The other way, is it morphs into human to human. I believe it has to only mutate in one place to make that possible. It would be an unmitigated disaster either way, both ways, it's beyond catastrophic. It's also possible, it could make other mammals we eat sick as well.

I am not convinced of the transparency of the public health systems in ANY country. 

Oh, I read it does cause cytokine storm. I also read that they thought that maybe older men had some contact with a different H7 making their antibodies react so profoundly to the new one, and causing cytokine storm....but, that is still unproven.

The only good test for H7N9 is a PCR test on sputum. Throat swabs do not show it, at least in early stages.

If you are at all inclined to prep for pandemics, this one is one that could give a person the heebie-jeebies. It's still fetal....it hasn't reached infancy yet....let's see what it's going to deliver.

Oh, the health care system is NOTORIOUSLY slow to respond to any of this. That said, quite a few organizations including CDC have already made recommendations on treating febrile illness that appears to be influenza. What has struck me is how fast some of these professional organizations have come up with treatment protocols, which is rather unusual.


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## AsteroidX (Dec 11, 2012)

I found interesting is that the original cases were in the Southern area of China but they later had some cases in Beijing. That says this one has the potential to travel quickly if caution is not observed. This avian bird flu is a rapidly mutating one for sure and H7N9 is a very bad label for a virus. So keep your ears to the ground on this one for sure.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Boston Globe reports since last Thursday the spigot of information we have been getting on cases from China has been turned off. They are asking China to be forthcoming regarding what is going on with this virus. 

This week was China's huge holiday, May Day, which is equivalent to our Christmas-New Years 'shutdowns' of old. It involves a lot of travel all over China and Taiwan and is a major revenue generator. Ironic that the day before all this starts, case reports started dwindling to almost nothing. .

I can't give you any credible information right now, so, I'm in a holding pattern with this.


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## JAGER (Oct 10, 2012)

Thanks for your updates IngaLisa. Keep us posted.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I watched a video today regarding H7N9 and I have been gathering what information I can. A lot is NOT known about this virus, and we can't predict what the scenario will be. So regardless of how much searching and reading I do, I can't get the information all preppers would like. Just what shape will this take? I don't know. I am in the same boat as every one else. Predicting what Mother Nature or God intends to do with this virus is impossible. Right now, it is strictly an AVIAN influenza that comes to humans thru an infected bird, that shows no symptoms. Keep in mind H1N1 was not really a 'swine flu' it was an avian influenza as well. H1N1 appears to be resurging in some areas of the world right now. That is somewhat surprising to me. There is a vaccine for H1N1. People should get it. Get your medical needs taken care of now. If it is a bad tooth or ingrown toenails. You don't want to have an easily treated health problem now, take you out during a pandemic. Get a pneumovax vaccine. Often flu turns into pneumonia. Get up to date on the tetanus, whooping cough for adults, diphtheria vaccines.

It could fizzle (not likely) or it could be a catastrophic pandemic. I don't have enough information to give you a guess when. Just from what I know about flu, it likes cold weather more than warm, but not necessarily so in pandemics. If this involves migratory birds, Spring and Fall would be times to watch for infection spread. I don't have enough information to give you a credible guess. From what I can gather, I would lean toward being prepared. A recent scientific article out of China seemed to indicate, they expect a pretty bad scenario.

There are several other viruses out there that I also watch, but at this time, H7N9 is the big story.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Thanks for the update please keep us posted.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Just so folks know, the big players that are being watched are the NCoV, Novel Coronavirus, which has made a resurgence in Saudi Arabia. It's nasty, but so far, hasn't been a fast spreader. It has a high CFR (case fatality rate). This is a SARS like disease, not SARS, but similar. No vaccine.

Another is H5N1 which spreads from bird to human and kills 60% of those infected. There is a vaccine, but it take 2 large doses to develop immunity and enough of the vaccine could not be produced in the case of a pandemic.

H1N1 which was the highly over rated 'swine flu' which is actually an avian flu which went the way of human to human transmission. 

Just released today: Chinese scientists ended up creating a H5N1(avian)-H1N1(humanized) hybrid in the lab that spreads thru guinea pigs via droplets, just like the seasonal flu. They have been heavily criticized for this. This was terrible. It's still in the lab, or so they say. It's bad enough nature does this, mankind should not do this. Nothing was gained by doing this. I can't imagine what they were thinking. It's very disturbing.

Which brings up the incredible unpredictable nature of the influenza virus. It mixes and matches parts better than an AR15. There is not much stopping H7N9 from swapping genes with H1N1 or H5N1, or any other available influenza. I am really hoping we can dodge the bullet on this H7N9, but I can't help but worry what lurks in labs all over the world.

We will likely not see the enemy that kills us.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Scary especially considering that the person allegedly responsible for the "Anthrax Letters" after 9/11 was supposed to be a scientist working at a lab where the anthrax was produced. In our countries current toxic political environment, not to mention our target status for international terrorists there seems cause for concern.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Our CDC came out with a rather comprehensive statement on H7N9 which I thought was actually fairly proactive and honest. I would have to agree with everything they said, GIVEN THE CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCES.

H7N9 has not yet gone to substantial human to human transmission as far as we know. China has gone to giving weekly updates rather than daily. That makes me personally uncomfortable, but, I understand that my need to know isn't paramount. Could China be hiding cases? Sure it could. Saudi Arabia didn't inform WHO of 7 NCoV infections in April. Five of them were deaths.

H7N9 would be a disaster if it goes human to human and I do think the CDC isn't stressing how long a vaccine would take. It would take a long time. Previous attempts at a vaccine for H7N9 haven't produced much of an immune response. Vaccine for H5N1 avian flu, would also be a long time coming. It takes 2 larges doses, and there is not enough of it to go around. Both of these avian influenzas are very dangerous. H7N9 a bit more so, because it is undetectable in birds and man's immune system has no known experience with it. We are a long way off from an H7N9 vaccine. Besides chickens, ducks and wild birds, there is another missing link. A search is being done to find another mammal that H7N9 made at least a stop at before it arrived in humans in it's present state. I would think there is a fair amount of H7N9 sloshing around in China and bordering countries in birds. I'm sure there is some in humans that is going undetected. We will have to see what emerges out of this 'chicken soup'.

Novel Coronavirus continues to circulate in the Middle East mostly in Saudi Arabia. This is spread like a common cold, but has a high case fatality rate, and no vaccine.

H1N1 is continuing to circulate, and quite a few deaths have been occurring from it, which begs the question, has it mutated? (Keep in mind this started as a avian flu that went to pigs and then to humans---Keep in mind the issue with dead pigs in China, and just the general agricultural climate of China which includes a lot of birds and pigs.) These viruses are constantly mutating.

For now, it's a holding pattern. That doesn't mean H7N9 is gone or fizzled at all, it means it hasn't gone human to human (H2H) real fast in this present outbreak in China, yet. It's still being passed around and mutating. This is still a very tenuous situation, but there is no evidence yet, that would compel any public health body to make any major declarations. 

We have an avian to human transmission of a very severe influenza, and we do not know the reach of infected birds worldwide. We know this virus is mammalized.

I'm going to confine my chickens as best I can to avoid wild bird contact, and I will now be more careful with cleaning and caring for my small flock of birds including using a mask and goggles. I'm not planning a trip to China, so, I'm fine.


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## Rigged for Quiet (Mar 3, 2013)

Thank you for these updates. I haven't replied to the thread even though I follow every post. I'm a complete novice when it comes to a flu like pandemic and it's nice to get the scoop from an independent source who doesn't have an angle to play.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

You are welcome. I am trying to give people the best assessment I can. I don't want to encourage a panic, nor do I want people to blow this off. I don't want any one to max out their charge card on supplies, only to have this bug dead end leaving them broke and unable to pay for a car repair due, to my assessment of the situation. 

I really have no angle on this one way or another other than to make sure folks prepare for this contingency. I could happen tomorrow. It could not happen for a 100 years. It can happen at a mild level or be an all out, total oblivion pandemic. We don't know. 

I'm giving you the same advice I give my family and friends and trying to be a trustworthy source.

I don't mind that people don't reply. There is little to say. It needs to be watched. There are a few more things that people need to consider for their preps for pandemic


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

H7N9 is either quiescent or we are just not getting data.

NCoV in Saudi Arabia is on the rise again.

Also, H7N9 may have some link to plucking machines. If you raise chickens, I would recommend using protection when plucking chickens with those machines. We hand pluck, I always thought those machines had potential to aerosolize, and they do. You can still use them but, I would gown, mask and goggle. Frankly, I will be doing that even when we butcher and pluck by hand. It's a messy job and it's easier to just be hosed off while in your plastic suit. Mankind and poultry have a unique relationship. They supply so much of our food, yet, we share viruses that can end up killing both species.

Right now, all quiet on the germ front....at least what we can see. It's what we can't see that can get us.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

I always skin the birds rather than pluck. If you sear the meat and then cook it slowly it doesn't dry out.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I'm thinking I will start skinning them too. Plucking is such a freakin' mess. I imagine you just cut around the legs and around the butt hole and pull? Does it go as slick as on a rabbit?

China reported one additional case. European scientists feel H7N9 will be around quite a while, but as long as it doesn't go into a massive human to human, we mostly need to watch our poultry exposure. I think it is still safe right now to raise free range. I may not feel that way next year. I would certainly be more careful when butchering. I'm on the fence this year whether to raise meat chickens, mostly because hubs is just not up for the work. I would like to do it and can the meat.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

It's been quiet on the H7N9 front. I watch this stuff, so I will certainly let you know if anything much develops. As I said before, we caught this at at fetal stage...not even to its infancy yet.

I think we WILL be dealing with H7N9 for a long time, but, for now, I do not see an impending catastrophic hit any time soon for the Americas. Asia and Europe will remain more at risk. If it comes via wild birds, that will hit Alaska first, mostly likely because of migratory bird patterns. It could come other ways though. I predict human to human before we see a person get it from any poultry in the Americas. Just my hunch. That said, Avian Flu is something to be taken very seriously. It can pop anywhere there are humans and chickens together.

If you are into poultry raising, it wouldn't hurt to implement a few practices. If you raise poultry, keep reading, if you don't, I would take a breather on H7N9, keeping it at the back of your mind. It's going to fester quietly for a while, but we could have a real big bang if it goes human to human. Very ugly. It's going to be around for a long time in some shape or form. It may periodically flare up. It could go human to human and be slow spreading. It could go human to human and be rapid. It could develop treatment resistance. It could die out. If you don't raise chickens, stay out of East Asian wet markets, the rest of this lengthy post will bore the heck out of you.

If you raise poultry, you are at higher risk of getting an avian influenza of any type.

Keep the shoes or boots you wear in your coop-run area just for use in your coop and run. Don't wear them any where else, or bring them into your home.

Keep a sterilizing pool, I use a 5 gallon bucket, with water and a little bleach, just outside my chicken run. I just dip the soles of my boots in them before and after entry. I keep another one like this where I park my boots at the back door.

When you clean your coop, suit up. Go ahead and use the $8 Tyvek type suit, goggles, nitrile gloves, and an N95 mask. I will use this when I butcher as well. Yep, you will look dumb....but, alas, you are smart. You will protect your flock and yourself. If your suit is good enough, spray it down with a mild solution of water and bleach and let it dry for reuse, as long as your have no obvious disease in your flock. Wash off your goggles too, and any other reusable protective equipment.

If you can afford to build a run with a roof, even a tarp, do it. You will have to do it at some point anyway. Keeping your flock from contact with wild birds is a good idea. I believe in giving them the most natural habitat you can, so, if you can afford to put a cover over a large fenced area for a chicken run, then great. I don't want to see us become mini-CAFOs. Birds need room to scratch and dust themselves. And they crap a lot, so, they need room to do that and still have some place clean to sit. I am building 8 by 8 pods that I keep adding on and connecting, because I can't go hogwild and buy myself a fancy chicken run. They have a tarp over them to keep wild birds from entering the run. I will keep adding these until I have enough room to keep them happy. We put a gate on some of them and a hinged top. It's not meant to keep predators out, only to keep wild birds out. So far, we haven't had any predator but a hawk, and it does keep the hawk out, but, she had tried to pull the wire off the top!

Make sure you wash your hands! Wash your eggs and wash meat before cooking. I know storing eggs with the 'bloom' on them works best for preservation, but really, it may not be worth the risk. Anywhere you set that egg or chicken is contaminated. Clean that with a bleach cleaner. Clean your sink out after washing chicken in it.

If you have a flu like illness, don't care for the birds.

If you are on antibiotics or immunosuppressed, take measures, such as mask and googles when having casual contact with your birds, if you plan to have more prolonged contact, do the whole Outbreak outfit.

Don't use a mechanical chicken plucker unless you put on an Outbreak outfit.

If you incubate your own chicks, consider vaccinating them for sevaral chick diseases. Marek's Disease is one of them. I didn't realize the hatchery vaccinated eggs right before a chick is hatched. Hatcheries vaccinate for Marek's disease. My flock is mixed, because I had incubated some and also bought some, mostly purchased chicks. Always quarantine birds for several weeks before adding them to your flock. Know your source of new birds. If you incubate follow directions on cleaning your incubator, they can become a real mess fast. If you are lucky to have a hen that sets, I envy you. None of mine have gone broody. :/

H7N9 does NOT make the poultry sick. If your flock got infected, you would have no clue. For your flock to get infected, it would have to come in contact with the germ. So far, no data has indicated that birds in the Americas have H7N9, but we are just getting started testing birds worldwide.

So, unless I hear much more on Avian Influenza of any type, this is the word for now. I will post any update that I think you would want to read. I am still watching NCoV, but, that has nothing to do with chickens. NCoV is also nasty, and a mystery, but so far, very slow.

H7N9 is a very, very bad flu if you catch the disease. Our risk in the Americas is very low unless it goes human to human in Asia first. So far, we have no indication that it has done that, but, it's probably a matter of time, only because this avian flu has some characteristics that make it more likely to do so at some point. We do have some time on this one in terms of prepping and protecting ourselves. I am relieved to say that. If this had gone H2H, we would be in a world of hurt. We are NOT off the hook on this one, but, it won't be here imminently from the data I am seeing, but it will be here. Keep in mind, that data could change tomorrow.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

It's quiet on the H7N9 front right now. I want to REMIND all preppers that we have 3 known viruses circulating with very high mortality rates. There are NO vaccines for any of these right now. At the present time, human to human spread is slow and not very effective, but this can change at any time.

Current thoughts of scientists on H7N9 is that an effective vaccine will NOT be available in time to mitigate a pandemic. Prepping for a pandemic once the cat is out of the bag is not an option. Avian Influenzas tend to take off in the Fall (although can happen at any time).

If you live in a city, consider your options. If you are on shared ventilation, air circulation systems with your neighbors, think about how to handle that situation. HEPA filters may help, as long as there is electricity. I have no idea how and if quarantines would go into effect in a pandemic situation involving these diseases. My thought is, it will appear in so many places at once, to make quarantine not very effective.

Again, right now, with the information I have now, we have no discernible danger from either H7N9, H5N1 nCoV in the Americas. Europe has had a few nCoV but all due to travel in the Middle East. H1N1 the 'swine flu' is still showing up and appears to be rather malevolent, especially in pregnant women. It's been active in Sri Lanka and Brazil, killing several pregnant women in those countries. H1N1 was originally a bird flu.

Chinese scientists did cross H5N1 with H1N1 to make a strain that infects ferrets, which makes it likely that this strain would infect and result in human to human transmission. Frankly, I think that was a stupid move. It is locked in a few labs across the world. Making a more dangerous flu virus is to me, unethical and incredibly stupid science.

I am just saying, don't let pandemic prepping sit on the back burner too long. It is one of our most pressing disaster scenarios.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Besides common knowledge of washing your hands and keeping surfaces disinfected how does one prep for a pandemic?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

It's hard to look at pandemics of the past and apply it to the present. We have never had 7 billion people on the planet before. By 2025, there will be 8 billion. The last bad pandemic was in 1918, when we had 1.7 billion people on the planet, and travel was not as quick and easy. Much of the world lived rurally on small farms. Yes, we have antivirals, but, even with antivirals, some of the viruses we are facing now, require extreme intensive care for even a shot at survival. 

It depends on how bad things get. H1N1 was not a bad pandemic. I don't think that we did ourselves a favor by defining this as a pandemic, in some ways. It WAS a nasty flu, it DID kill healthy young people, but, it wasn't anything near what a really bad pandemic could do.

Basic prepping goes a long way. You need everything you need in any SHTF scenario. Depending on the reservoir of the disease, it could affect our lifestyles. For example, if poultry is a reservoir, we would not want contact with it. If wild birds are a reservoir, it's a bit tougher situation. A virus could have more than one reservoir, a human and a chicken, or pigeon. The reservoir could or could not get ill. There can also be humans that are asymptomatic carriers.

Isolation may be necessary depending on the lethality of the virus and the ease of its spread. That is easiest in a single family home without a shared ventilation system.

Personal Protective Equipment or PPEs: disposal impenetrable gowns with booties and hood, gloves, N95 masks, goggles that don't allow air into them. Learn how to degown without contaminating yourself. Learn how to clean any reusable equipment without contaminating yourself.

Isolation may be needed for a prolonged period of time, several years, as pandemics come in waves.

If I could get Tamiflu, I would. 

Yes hand washing and keeping surfaces clean would help. Spraying door handles, and other surfaces with Lysol spray or wiping down with bleach would help. 

Running a HEPA filter would help as long as you have power.

Having all your immunizations up to date would help long term survival.

If it is a worst case scenario pandemic of human to human transmission of H7N9 specifically, don't count on a vaccine any time soon. There have been attempts over the years, and so far they have not produced a human immune response to vaccination. The medical system would be horrendously overwhelmed if it maintained its current lethality. I would estimate several years to develop a vaccine. H5N1 does have a vaccine, but, there will not be enough to go around to prevent significant mortality. They could not gear up production in time. It takes 2 doses of a large amount to produce immunity. If it went human to human, the medical system would again be horrendously overwhelmed. Novel Coronavirus does not have a vaccine. If it began to spread like a common cold, the medical system would again be, horrendously overwhelmed.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

How do germs and viruses get passed around anyway? If they're floating in the air why don't they get killed by sunlight, heatwaves, subzero cold snaps, rain, snow etc? They must be tough little things!


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Most germs live in a host, where it is warm and toasty. Some germs live on surfaces for a certain period of time, it depends on the type of germ.

Flu generally gets spread by droplets, usually sneezing and coughing, and it gets into our eyes, nose and mouth, either directly or by touching something that had slobber on it.

That is the most common route of spreading germs.

Stuff like Norovirus, to which 20% of us are genetically immune (myself included) is passed around via fecal-oral spread. It's almost impossible to kill the germ and it spreads like crazy, but fortunately, it is minor, causing diarrhea and cramping for several days.

Still other germs are spread by contact with body fluids, such as HIV and Hepatitis B.

Yet other germs live in ventilation systems that are poorly maintained.

Not all germs are bad. We actually need microorganisms in our body for digestion. We have natural body 'flora'. Most of us have healthy immune systems and don't need to fret about germs much.

My biggest concern about a coming pandemic is the fact that we have reached such high population levels on the planet, and we have changed the ecosystem so much to where so few of us live rurally, that it could tip the scales. Even rural people don't have idyllic lives, we are dealing with CAFOs, where we have hundreds to tens of thousands of cows kept on limited acreage. Three million chickens reside a few miles from me. All that crap is being spread on the soil and getting into the water. It's industrial farming. Where there are not CAFOs, there are mines. There are very few family farms under 500 acres. There are very few farms with mixed animals like in the past, where you had 80 cows and a flock of chickens and some pigs and you had 240 acres. To keep tens of thousands of animals locked in pole buildings never to see the light of day, takes a lot of antibiotic use. And that antibiotic comes out in the crap, spread on the fields and eaten by wildlife. Just living around where they spread the manure of so many animals is dangerous. In my area, they are taking to aerosolizing manure via large irrigation rigs, spraying manure high into the air for several hundred feet. I am not sure why they are doing this, but it's terrible. Bacteria from the manure has been found a long distance from where it was sprayed. Aerosol is the best way to get something into the human lung.

As a species, we are doing a lot of dumb things for profit without considering how this will affect us, our children and our grandchildren. It may be simpler to do without much of the garbage they try to sell us on TV. 

We are making such massive ecological change to try to feed and to maintain 7 billion, soon 8 billion souls, that, I don't think it is sustainable. Our planet has a way of correcting these imbalances and ridding itself of what it regards to be a nuisance. We are unfortunately far beyond what our planet can sustain in a reasonable manner. Too many people are starving and in need because we no longer have enough arable land, and fresh water. We have altered the climate enough to kill off beneficial species and allow for proliferation of insects that breed and spread disease. We have produced antibiotic resistant germs, such as multi drug resistant TB.

I have no answers.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

This video is slightly dated, but still very good. It is a docudrama regarding a hypothetical pandemic of H5N1. It has a lot of good information to those unfamiliar with pandemic situations. Several things I want to point out, several health care workers are not wearing goggles, others, perhaps for drama, did not have their masks on or properly positioned. I think a good point is made regarding quarantine. It will probably be useless. Total isolation, is NOT useless however, and that is how one can survive. H7N9 has a tremendous amount in common with H5N1, except the birds do NOT get sick. We don't really know how many birds are currently carrying H7N9 and where in the world they are. H7N9 appears to be attacking the elderly, but it does produce a cytokine storm. If it mutates to effectively transmit human to human, it will likely cause the same illness in all ages with those in the most vital years 15-45 affected the worst, because that is when the immune system is strongest and most likely to produce cytokine storm. H7N9 produces multi-organ failure. So we have TWO Avian Influenzas on their way to becoming humanized, and several dozen more lurking out there, that so far, have not managed to due too much damage. Remember H1N1 of 2009 and a similar strain in 1918 were Avian Influenzas.

Also H7 vaccines development has not been successful. Humans don't seem to produce much immunity when vaccinated with it. Trials have failed in the last few years. H5N1 requires a very large amount of vaccine given in 2 doses. We have very little of it.

The docudrama is correct in what it says about Tamiflu. You could use it prophylactically if you had an unlimited supply, but we don't. You would at best have one shot to use it, if you were exposed to the flu. It won't be readily available. It's going to be rationed.

nCoV could also evolve into a pandemic if it mutates just a bit more to transmit more readily from human to human.

This docudrama at one point states 1 out of a 100 dies, that is a 1% mortality rate, another doctor comments in reality we could lose 1 out of 10, 10% mortality, in fact, it could be even worse. Right now about 30-50% infected with H7N9 or H5N1 die, despite heroic medical care. We don't really know enough about the Avian Influenzas currently affecting mankind, nor the nCoV to estimate accurately what the Case Fatality Rate would be.

Of ALL the things we prep for, pandemic is the most likely. It's not just me saying that. Scientist and physicians are saying it. It isn't an IF, it is a WHEN.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

IngaLisa said:


> .....My biggest concern about a coming pandemic is the fact that we have reached such high population levels on the planet, and we have changed the ecosystem so much to where so few of us live rurally, that it could tip the scales. Our planet has a way of correcting these imbalances and ridding itself of what it regards to be a nuisance.....I have no answers.


Then if the answer is a pandemic to thin out the population, then so be it..
I'd regard it as a 'Great Cleansing' and wouldn't mourn the passing of the Old World if it means the few survivors will be able to start again in a slimmer, cleaner world, the writing's already on the wall- _"The time has come for judging the dead...and for destroying those who destroy the earth" (Revelation 11:18 )_
This Survivors clip illustrates how things could be; a pandemic has wiped out 95% of the earth's population and the few survivors have banded together like this group which has taken over a deserted mansion and are partying like crazy, the only clue that it's a post-apocalypse world without electricity are the paraffin lamps-
(party begins at 3:08)






PS- neat twist near the end of the clip (7:45) when somebody starts singing "but i guess it doesn't matter any more" which is an appropriate epitaph for the bad old rat-racing world they used to know..


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Lucky Jim said:


> Then if the answer is a pandemic to thin out the population, then so be it..
> I'd regard it as a 'Great Cleansing' and wouldn't mourn the passing of the Old World if it means the few survivors will be able to start again in a slimmer, cleaner world, the writing's already on the wall- _"The time has come for judging the dead...and for destroying those who destroy the earth" (Revelation 11:18 )_
> This Survivors clip illustrates how things could be; a pandemic has wiped out 95% of the earth's population and the few survivors have banded together like this group which has taken over a deserted mansion and are partying like crazy, the only clue that it's a post-apocalypse world without electricity are the paraffin lamps-
> (party begins at 3:08)
> ...


Jim I have to thank you for the Survivors post. (humorous sarcasm intended) Mrs Inor has been watching episodes of it for the last 4 hours and leaving me a "Survivors widower". For the last 2 hours I have been talking to the dogs with a British accent! :-D

I guess it is better than the time we had the marathon watching All Creatures Great and Small and I walked around for the next week talking like I was from the Dales. Not even Brits could understand me then! :-D


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Ha ha, yes the 'Survivors' TV series is still one of the best post-apoc show ever made in my opinion because there's not a stupid zomb, mutant, vampire or bloody alien in sight, type 'Survivors 1975' into the youtube search box, I watched all 38 episodes again for free on youtube last year.
(Don't get it mixed up with the 2000's remake which wasn't so hot)

Here's another clip in keeping with this thread's topic about disease, some poor slob at 2:17 does a self-diagnosis of what he's got-






PS- it also raises the dilemma of whether we should finish off anybody with an incurable disease to put them out of their misery, I say "yes"


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I watched some Survivor or 'The Survivors' or something of that nature series, that was British. It was on Netflix. I was a bit amused, since no one had guns. One 'good guy' came into the picture with a gun and every one wailed on him about the gun. It came in handy. It was so much 'cleaner' than watching the American versions of apocalypse.

You know, and I hate to get into conspiracies, but, it's a lot easier to handle a population in a pandemic, when they have no ammo......Just sayin'...


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

We Brits have fearsome weapons in the form of cricket bats. Hubert in 'Survivors' prefers a crossbow (at 2:50)-


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Lucky Jim said:


> We Brits have fearsome weapons in the form of cricket bats. Hubert in 'Survivors' prefers a crossbow (at 2:50)-


And if that fails, you can always kill them with Haggis, neeps and tatties!


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## Meangreen (Dec 6, 2012)

Inor said:


> And if that fails, you can always kill them with Haggis, neeps and tatties!


I do believe most Scotish food was discovered on a dare.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I will have to dedicate one of my sleepless nights to watching this series. Although now that I am out in the garden all day, I am having fewer of those sleepless nights. I'm pretty much collapsing into bed right after I wash the dirt off and do a tick check. 

The characters look different on the series I saw. I need to do some research to see which ones I watched. I watched one regarding a Pandemic that was British, but it was fairly recent. Another one was some event in the US, but, I can't remember the name of it. And of course, Walking Dead. I went off my sleeping medication a while ago, and for months couldn't sleep, so I watched these series all night long, lol.


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

LOL, the UK's crime rate is the highest in Europe. They are proud that the crime rate is now decreasing by a whopping 14% to 17% (depending on the source) but they still have a high murder rate. This is from the Daily Mail.

UK Peace Index: Rate of murders and violent crime falling faster than anywhere in Western Europe | Mail Online

Here is a comparison from The Blaze.

Will Banning Guns Stop Homicides? Stats from England and Australia Show? | TheBlaze.com


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

IngaLisa said:


> ..The characters look different on the series I saw...


The classic 1970's 'Survivors' is the one you want, that's the one all the above clips are from.
By comparison the the new 2000's remake was woodenly acted and unrealistically scripted, and plummeting viewing figures led to it being cancelled halfway through.
It had a few good scenes in it, for example here's the new Abby's reaction when she recovers from the plague and finds she's now in an almost-empty world-





And for comparison here's how the old Abby character did it in the 1970's Survivors-





Survivors - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

inceptor said:


> LOL, the UK's crime rate is the highest in Europe...


Don't read too much into the figures as they're often deliberately skewed by whoever's writing about them to make some kind of political point.
Certainly as the charts show, most violent crime is concentrated in inner-city areas where drug gangs battle it out among themselves, so as long as ordinary citizens stay clear of the ghettoes and not get caught in the crossfire they should be alright.
For example i lived in the notorious inner-city Highfields area of Leicester for 5 years and was only shot once in all that time, serves me right for nipping out to the grocer's after dark. 
3 shots rang out of the shadows across the street, two whizzed past my head and smacked into the wall of a house and the 3rd hit me in the calf, (lousy marksmanship) but I just carried on walking and called the police, but when they arrived the gunman had fled the scene.
Amazingly there was no hole in my leg, just a bloody crater so the projectile must have bounced out, the cops found a half-inch silver ball-bearing in the gutter so maybe it was fired from a low-velocity home-made gun, ha ha..


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Ah yes, I saw the remake. The last episode I was able to watch, was where she was reunited with her son. I will have to keep an eye out for the older version. I thought the remake wasn't too bad really, although, it seems like a lot of detail was missed. I mean, there had to be a lot of bodies decaying etc. The areas they were living in still seemed fairly pleasant. It didn't show them struggling to get gasoline etc. In general, it wasn't bad, but, not fully realistic as to how bad things would look after that kind of pandemic. Stores weren't really looted, things just seemed too tidy.


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## Rigged for Quiet (Mar 3, 2013)

Lucky Jim said:


> We Brits have fearsome weapons in the form of cricket bats. Hubert in 'Survivors' prefers a crossbow (at 2:50)-


Jim, I'm more of a tradionalist when it comes to my British weapons of choice, the tried and true Enfield 303.


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## Tripper52 (Dec 8, 2012)

Any chance of moving the discussion of "Survivors" to a different thread so we can get this thread back on track?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

So far, not much on the H7N9 front. Scientists in Siberia are surveying birds to look for it there. They are finding it in birds in China. Since the wet markets in the cities were closed, it hasn't seemed to surface in humans, so they say. It has become far more difficult for Chinese bloggers to get news to us. Several went to jail for blogs and tweets.

I believe, we will see it resurface again, and it is a bigger issue than H5N1, because the reservoir, the birds, don't get sick. I would think we won't see much though, until Fall, when migration starts.

H5N1 in birds is hot right now. Nothing unexpected in humans.

nCoV is the big story. nCoV is likely FAR more prevalent in the Arabian Peninsula than is being divulged. We are not exactly dealing with transparent governments there. There is also a lot of poverty in countries like Yemen, Jordan, Syria etc. nCoV is doing human to human transmission, and it appears to be getting a bit better at it. Mortality rates on that stand at roughly 50%, but that is for identified cases. We have no idea what it will look like when a larger population emerges. 

We have a reprieve I didn't think we would get with H7N9, but is isn't gone by a long shot. Scientists are on this one, because if it blows, it is going to be hard to control. It is a nightmare germ.


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## Tripper52 (Dec 8, 2012)

Bumping because someone asked for thread


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Thanks, I just updated the information on his thread. 

Yes, there have been additional cases of H7N9, the latest one is a 6 year old boy in Beijing. H7N9 is going to smolder. Think of it as a campfire sending off embers here and there. Most of them don't take, but, here and there, they will develop clusters.

nCoV is a bigger issue right now. It is spreading and we are having trouble getting a handle on the exact number of cases. With the upcoming pilgrimages over Ramadan and the Hajj, I have some concerns that it could spread more.

I haven't posted daily because of the inability to get solid reports. China just arrested a blogger who dared to post on H7N9. Previously, they jailed about 10 people. Reports from the Saudi government are very sparse. Most of them consist of 'nothing to see here, move along'.... What tweets and blogs escape, need to be vetted, because, some of them, frankly are pretty scary. Before I scare the heck out of people with rumors, I want to be sure the reports are credible., 

nCoV does transmit human to human, and given the French case and several other clusters where health professionals caught it, I think it can spread effectively. This particular virus concerns me the most right now.


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