# Surviving the Economic Collapse



## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

Has anyone read this book? If so, was it worth the purchase? I think it's gonna be my next purchase on Audible.

by Fernando "Ferfal" Aguirre (Author)
_The Modern Survival Manual is based on first hand experience of the 2001 Economic Collapse in Argentina. In it you will find a variety of subjects that the author considers essential if a person wants to be prepared for tougher times: -How to prepare your family, yourself, your home and your vehicle -How to prepare your finances so that you don't suffer what millions in my country went through -How to prepare your supplies for food shortages and power failures -How to correctly fight with a chair, gun, knife, pen or choke with your bare hands if required -Most important, how to reach a good awareness level so that you can avoid having to do all that These are just a few examples of what you will find in this book. It's about Attitude, and being a more _

Amazon


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## RedLion (Sep 23, 2015)

I have not read it. Argentina having an economic collapse is nothing compared to what would happen if/when the U.S. has one. There will be no safe places, you will have to rely on what you have stocked to survive, it will permanently change the nation, a lot of violence, destruction and death, and would bring the world economy down with it. No help from other countries would be coming or possible.


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## Elvis (Jun 22, 2018)

Since in every economic collapse from the Persian economic collapse around 400 AD to modern day Venezuela inflation runs rampant and the currency becomes almost worthless I suspect that any cash based investment (stocks and bonds) are a poor way to protect your money if you truly expect an economic collapse. Items of intrinsic value such as gold and silver hold their value better. At the same time historically if you're saving for retirement the S&P 500 stock average has done much better than gold but for 10 year periods gold has occasionally outperformed the stocks. 

most recent numbers I have
From 1982 to 2007 gold increased in value an average of 3% per year. The S&P increased an average of 11% per year. Some years gold did better than the stocks but overall the stocks did much better. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. During that 25 year period inflation averaged about 3% so in buying power stocks rose about 8% per year while gold did not grow in buying power. 

Assuming you've got some spare cash and all bills are paid I think it's worth keeping some bullion around but I still put money in the market for retirement. Developing the ability to live with little cash (grow your own food, have the house paid off, ect) is probably the best way to protect yourself from an economic collapse.


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## rstanek (Nov 9, 2012)

Food, ammunition, water, shelter and medical supplies will be the new currency.....and don’t forget, toilet paper....


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## BookWorm (Jul 8, 2018)

Elvis said:


> Since in every economic collapse from the Persian economic collapse around 400 AD to modern day Venezuela inflation runs rampant and the currency becomes almost worthless I suspect that any cash based investment (stocks and bonds) are a poor way to protect your money if you truly expect an economic collapse. Items of intrinsic value such as gold and silver hold their value better. At the same time historically if you're saving for retirement the S&P 500 stock average has done much better than gold but for 10 year periods gold has occasionally outperformed the stocks.
> 
> most recent numbers I have
> From 1982 to 2007 gold increased in value an average of 3% per year. The S&P increased an average of 11% per year. Some years gold did better than the stocks but overall the stocks did much better. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. During that 25 year period inflation averaged about 3% so in buying power stocks rose about 8% per year while gold did not grow in buying power.
> ...


 @Elvis You and I may be the only ones on this site to think it's a good idea to have some gold and silver (coinage) on hand so when the big event gets here, we have $$ to help buy whatever we didn't think to prep.


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## BookWorm (Jul 8, 2018)

@Annie I seem to remember seeing an advertisement on this book not too long ago. Not sure where. I haven't read it. Not sure how much of what happened there, could/would happen here.

I agree with the idea that within a week after a collapse there would be empty store shelves and people running around like crazed lunatics with no plan at all. A few might band together for a week until they turned on each other. My plan is to stay in place, monitor the surroundings with various radios and take it a day at a time. A huge variable is the time of year it takes place and what is the weather like during that first 3 week period.

But, reading the ideas of others is never a waste of time...


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

Not how the Great Depression went down. We deflated to the point where getting dollars was all that mattered.



Elvis said:


> Since in every economic collapse from the Persian economic collapse around 400 AD to modern day Venezuela inflation runs rampant and the currency becomes almost worthless I suspect that any cash based investment (stocks and bonds) are a poor way to protect your money if you truly expect an economic collapse. Items of intrinsic value such as gold and silver hold their value better. At the same time historically if you're saving for retirement the S&P 500 stock average has done much better than gold but for 10 year periods gold has occasionally outperformed the stocks.
> 
> most recent numbers I have
> From 1982 to 2007 gold increased in value an average of 3% per year. The S&P increased an average of 11% per year. Some years gold did better than the stocks but overall the stocks did much better. These numbers are not adjusted for inflation. During that 25 year period inflation averaged about 3% so in buying power stocks rose about 8% per year while gold did not grow in buying power.
> ...


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## Elvis (Jun 22, 2018)

BookWorm said:


> @Elvis You and I may be the only ones on this site to think it's a good idea to have some gold and silver (coinage) on hand so when the big event gets here, we have $$ to help buy whatever we didn't think to prep.


Well I figure that in this country since you truly never own your property (property taxes) having something tucked away to pay "the man" with may make the difference between being free and being enslaved by a quasi-legal local government. Let's say the federal government is gone, maybe the state too. But your county or nearest town wants money or "volunteers". If you can't pay your property taxes "you can work it off". I'd prefer to pay and stay home; unless I don't believe the local government in whatever form is at least semi-legitimate in which I'd fight. I suspect that many local sheriff's offices will become the "government" in most rural areas. I like and know a few of my county sheriffs and local town cops but would prefer not to dig ditches for them.
I also try to always maintain a set amount of cash buried away. During the first few weeks or months of a SHTF event cash will still spend. If your property tax bill is $2000 having $2000 cash will keep "the man" off your back for a year.

When trade restarts a medium of value will become established. Maybe one day of very hard work is equal to 1 oz of silver or a bushel of corn. Since some people may not need the corn and would rather have sugar a fungible item such as silver or old 90% coins can be used as pay allowing that person to trade the bullion for the sugar or whisky he wants in payment for his day's labor.

If a person needs to bug out carrying silver or gold allows him to carry a trade item easier than a bushel of corn or sack of sugar.


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## Back Pack Hack (Sep 15, 2016)

rstanek said:


> Food, ammunition, water, shelter and medical supplies will be the new currency.....and don't forget, toilet paper....


Or booze.

Or cancer sticks.


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## Elvis (Jun 22, 2018)

stowlin said:


> Not how the Great Depression went down. We deflated to the point where getting dollars was all that mattered.


Forbes Magazine 2011 The Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/briand...put-the-great-in-the-depression/#1be7d26c6d71

The Revenue Act of 1932 took the marginal rate of the income tax from 25% to 63%. It also introduced a slew of progressive rate brackets - 55 of them - that would nail anyone who happened to have a good year with a higher tax bill. Here was Hoover's reflection on the act's passage:
"The willingness of our people to accept this added burden in these times in order impregnably to establish the credit of the Federal Government is a great tribute to their wisdom and courage. While many of the taxes are not as I desired, the bill will effect the great major purpose of assurance to the country and the world of the determination of the American people to maintain their finances and their currency on a sound basis."
Two years later, the US devalued the dollar by 75%. For fifteen years after 1932, the budget remained grossly unbalanced. And the living standards of the 1920s would not return until the 1950s.

In 1929 the accumulated federal deficit vs GDP was 0%, we owed nothing and had a small reserve. In April 2018 the cumulative federal deficit vs GDP is about 77%. The fed had a lot more wiggle room to straighten out the economy during the great recession. In 1932 they instituted a 75% devaluation so the chart shown in the next link shows a 10% inflation rate on top of the 300% inflation rate.
https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-inflation-rate-history-by-year-and-forecast-3306093

I'm not an economist so I could be wrong but it looks like over 300% inflation in 1932. Pretty much the same thing (smaller scale) as Venezuela is doing now by cutting zeros off their bills. The standard of living defiantly dipped between 1929 and 1940. Many could not pay their bills and went to the soup kitchens.


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## StratMaster (Dec 26, 2017)

Elvis said:


> Well I figure that in this country since you truly never own your property (property taxes) having something tucked away to pay "the man" with may make the difference between being free and being enslaved by a quasi-legal local government. Let's say the federal government is gone, maybe the state too. But your county or nearest town wants money or "volunteers". If you can't pay your property taxes "you can work it off". I'd prefer to pay and stay home; unless I don't believe the local government in whatever form is at least semi-legitimate in which I'd fight. I suspect that many local sheriff's offices will become the "government" in most rural areas. I like and know a few of my county sheriffs and local town cops but would prefer not to dig ditches for them.
> I also try to always maintain a set amount of cash buried away. During the first few weeks or months of a SHTF event cash will still spend. If your property tax bill is $2000 having $2000 cash will keep "the man" off your back for a year.
> 
> When trade restarts a medium of value will become established. Maybe one day of very hard work is equal to 1 oz of silver or a bushel of corn. Since some people may not need the corn and would rather have sugar a fungible item such as silver or old 90% coins can be used as pay allowing that person to trade the bullion for the sugar or whisky he wants in payment for his day's labor.
> ...


Economic collapse is on its way, in the specific form of currency collapse IMHO. Unlike the deflationary Great Depression, where cash became king, the next will be inflationary in nature. Once we lose our petrodollar status worldwide, the non-gold-backed fiat Federal Reserve Notes we utilize for currency will become worthless. Nations around the world will no longer have to stockpile dollars to purchase energy, and there will be a sudden glut of dollars on the market with no takers. Combine that news with Quantitative Easing, running the presses 24/7 to print MORE money, and further diluting every dollar out there... including your savings of course. Not to mention the national debt and the numerous bubbles out there like student loans and derivatives. 
Stir in the BRICS accords, where these major energy importing/exporting nations have agreed to utilize their OWN currencies between them RATHER than the petrodollar, and you have completed the perfect recipe for dollar disaster goulash. It's gonna be a LOT tougher to chew and swallow than many realize: the petrodollar status has allowed Americans a standard of living which cannot continue... even with a new currency. Things will change forever for us.
I do not stockpile precious metals for trade or barter when this occurs. Might some opportunities to do so arise? Certainly. But historically, every collapsed fiat money system is soon replaced with a new sounder one. Our currency will collapse, but we won't be therefore entering into any long-term bartering system without utilizing money. It will be replaced with a new currency.
The point of owning precious metals (and other hard assets like land, guns, ammo, food, equipment) is to HEDGE against the currency collapse... to protect your purchasing power between the time of collapse into the time of recovery.
One has to of course address all the other items FIRST: food, water, land, livestock, guns ammo... yaddida yaddida. MOST working stiffs won't be buying any gold because it's a struggle for many to obtain the barest essentials. BUT, if you have prepped every other concern and STLL have hundreds of thousands of dollars laying around... well, I certainly would not want to lose them when the dollar becomes worthless. When ones and zeroes in an account are meaningless and won't purchase anything. Ditto most paper assets which are likely to go to zero.
I keep around $20K in a vault for a possible interim period when money still has some use... but I'm not going to be caught with several 100K of Fed Notes.
That's why I have gold.


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

The difference I'm sure you see is that to avoid the inflation on goods they devalued the dollar and curbed money supply hence making dollars impossible to get and causing massive defaults. Amazingly some suggested the same course during the down turn in 2008 09and fortunately the powers that be learned from history and created a massive money supply to prevent it from happening again. Many believe that will eventually cause hyperinflation (I was concerned with it) but it's yet to happen.



Elvis said:


> Forbes Magazine 2011 The Great Depression https://www.forbes.com/sites/briand...put-the-great-in-the-depression/#1be7d26c6d71
> 
> The Revenue Act of 1932 took the marginal rate of the income tax from 25% to 63%. It also introduced a slew of progressive rate brackets - 55 of them - that would nail anyone who happened to have a good year with a higher tax bill. Here was Hoover's reflection on the act's passage:
> "The willingness of our people to accept this added burden in these times in order impregnably to establish the credit of the Federal Government is a great tribute to their wisdom and courage. While many of the taxes are not as I desired, the bill will effect the great major purpose of assurance to the country and the world of the determination of the American people to maintain their finances and their currency on a sound basis."
> ...


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

Deflation and the 1930s ? Inflation Matters FYI


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

BookWorm said:


> @Elvis *You and I may be the only ones on this site to think it's a good idea to have some gold and silver *(coinage) on hand so when the big event gets here, we have $$ to help buy whatever we didn't think to prep.


I beg to differ. The search feature is your friend.

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/106593-silver-gold.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/104866-looking-silver-coin.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/10937-ever-weigh-your-one-ounce-coins.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/38186-storage-your-precious-metals.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/95721-gold-will-soar.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/95081-what-kind-coins-buy.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/88362-best-websites-buy-gold-silver.html

https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/57962-10-oz-silver-spot-free-shipping.html


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## NotTooProudToHide (Nov 3, 2013)

I don't think the market is what would screw Americans, the ultimate collapse will be when people stop paying for their personal debt, credit cards student loans etc.


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

Sadly, the book isn't available on Audible. So instead I'm going for this. Tomorrow War: The Chronicles of Max [Redacted], Book 1


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Annie said:


> Sadly, the book isn't available on Audible. So instead I'm going for this. Tomorrow War: The Chronicles of Max [Redacted], Book 1


Thanks for the recommend. I just got the Audible version.


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## Annie (Dec 5, 2015)

inceptor said:


> Thanks for the recommend. I just got the Audible version.


I like the TEOTWAWKI books! Let me know when you finish and maybe we can discuss.


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## The Tourist (Jun 9, 2016)

Personally, I don't think that there will be that many of us left. For example, there are always craven individuals with no central compass of mercy or compassion. They might have no food, but they will probably be good with knives and guns. Spoken literally, every time this madman eats a family has to die.

I think watching how a ghetto breaks down might be a good lesson in how the country or world reacts. The "Liberty Vances" of the area will just eat, guzzle alcohol and rape until some other murderer kills him. I hate to say this, but we "good people" might have to be proactive and set up an extermination force to blunt this lawlessness.

Frankly, it's not a point in history I wish to see.


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## Back Pack Hack (Sep 15, 2016)

The Tourist said:


> Personally, I don't think that there will be that many of us left. For example, there are always craven individuals with no central compass of mercy or compassion. They might have no food, but they will probably be good with knives and guns. Spoken literally, every time this madman eats a family has to die.
> 
> I think watching how a ghetto breaks down might be a good lesson in how the country or world reacts. The "Liberty Vances" of the area will just eat, guzzle alcohol and rape until some other murderer kills him. I hate to say this, but we "good people" might have to be proactive and set up an extermination force to blunt this lawlessness.
> 
> Frankly, it's not a point in history I wish to see.


Liberty V*al*ance.

(Posted so those who don't know who Liberty Valance is and don't 'get' the reference can Google it correctly)


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Back Pack Hack said:


> Liberty V*al*ance.
> 
> (Posted so those who don't know who Liberty Valance is and don't 'get' the reference can Google it correctly)


Now that's a really old movie and great song.


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

BookWorm said:


> @Elvis You and I may be the only ones on this site to think it's a good idea to have some gold and silver (coinage) on hand so when the big event gets here, we have $$ to help buy whatever we didn't think to prep.





Sasquatch said:


> I beg to differ. The search feature is your friend.
> 
> https://www.prepperforums.net/forum/economic-precious-metals-investing-finance/106593-silver-gold.html
> 
> ...


Pfft &#8230;.. rookies, if they only knew. :vs_cool:


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## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

A Watchman said:


> Pfft &#8230;.. rookies, if they only knew. :vs_cool:


Ah, let them have their fantasies. Some like to think they are the only ones.


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

Not sure about the impacts of individuals not paying their debt. The US owes more that $20,000,000,000,000 and 1% is 200 billion. The US Govt has enjoyed 2-3% rates in that so if it goes up 5% the US budget is in need of one trillion more dollars just to pay a years interest. That's where I think risk of collapse comes from.



NotTooProudToHide said:


> I don't think the market is what would screw Americans, the ultimate collapse will be when people stop paying for their personal debt, credit cards student loans etc.


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## StratMaster (Dec 26, 2017)

Which is why The Fed has artificially kept those interest rates down... it's the only thing keeping the music going now. Remember back in the '80's, when a recession caused interest rates to soar to 16%? Can't have that now and keep the lie going. With CD's paying FAR less than inflation for the last several years, playing the stock market has been the choice of increasingly desperate people holding capital losing value. This is why the stock market is currently not especially a marker for a robust economy... it's the final redoubt before being overrun.


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