# Silver going south.



## PalmettoTree

I never thought silver would break 30 again in my lifetime but I expected it would be north of 20 by now. I hate it when I'm wrong.


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## BeefBallsBerry

It's bound to go up. Hold on for the long haul


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## wesley762

I am still a believer in bullets over PM, though I still have some silver stashed away I did not purchase it as a investment, but just one of those CYA's. you never know, Its better to have some just in case and its not going to hurt either way to have some.


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## Denton

I'm never unhappy when given a buying opportunity.


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## tango

+1, always take advantage of low prices.

You do not lose money unless you sell at the lower prices.
Think long term.


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## paraquack

Coin sales TV show was hawking 1 oz .45 acp bullets (solid silver) for only $29 each and 2 oz .308 cal bullets for $65. only $10 for ship and handling. Is there something I'm missing here? I mean really?? What am I missing???


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## Smitty901

Unless you are a gambler investing is for the long haul not the quick buck


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## PalmettoTree

If I am not earning an appreciation rate above 3% I am losing money. In the case of silver that means I bought too soon and do not understand the market. Granted my silver is for my grandchildren but how can I do my best for them if I do not understand the market.


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## budgetprepp-n

PalmettoTree said:


> If I am not earning an appreciation rate above 3% I am losing money. In the case of silver that means I bought too soon and do not understand the market. Granted my silver is for my grandchildren but how can I do my best for them if I do not understand the market.


 I think you did good. You'll see


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## alterego

Buy low. Sell high.
In 2003 I was buying silver one troy ounce for 6.38 in 2010 I sold them for 26.40
I believed I was at the top of the up hill clime. A month latter and it was at 41.

So the moral is that I have been watching this market for a while.

My opinion is that with out major issue such as war you will see silver between 11 and fifteen per troy ounce. The table has turned and the filthy rich are moving from the commodities back into the market as the gain is to lucrative. They will prop up the market and then pull out after all you fools pour a few years of your retirement into there pockets so they can sell through a fictional character. Then start it all over again.

If you bought silver at 25 plus you are ****ed for several years. 

If you have been thinking about buying in now is the time to start in.

Watch the spread over spot.


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## Hemi45

Alterego - for the first time in my life I'm considering PM's and gold is way too high for me. What are some suggested sources to buy silver from and do have any opinion between bars and rounds? Coins seem to be priced at a collectable premium and I don't see the value in that. Thank you!


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## PalmettoTree

When, if a SHTF strikes you will not care what you paid. The problem is what if it doesn't? Everything must either be an investment or an indulgence.


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## inceptor

PalmettoTree said:


> When, if a SHTF strikes you will not care what you paid. The problem is what if it doesn't? Everything must either be an investment or an indulgence.


Mine is for the long term. As it drops your overall cost goes down. I buy small quantities but on a mostly regular basis. If the S never HTF, well the family will do okay after I'm gone. If the S does HTF, I'll be ok. Or if the price goes up, I'll be better off for my retirement.


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## Go2ndAmend

Inceptor and I have the same philosophy about silver. I buy less than 10 rounds each month, divide them up in ammo cans and place them in my safe for all of my kids. They are a hedge for a SHTF situation, a long-term investment for my kids, and a retirement hedge for me in that order.


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## BeefBallsBerry

Go2ndAmend said:


> Inceptor and I have the same philosophy about silver. I buy less than 10 rounds each month, divide them up in ammo cans and place them in my safe for all of my kids. They are a hedge for a SHTF situation, a long-term investment for my kids, and a retirement hedge for me in that order.


Exactly what I do.


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## alterego

Hemi45 said:


> Alterego - for the first time in my life I'm considering PM's and gold is way too high for me. What are some suggested sources to buy silver from and do have any opinion between bars and rounds? Coins seem to be priced at a collectable premium and I don't see the value in that. Thank you!


I also do not see the value in collectables as well. I have bought silver in Florida while there visiting so I know there are coin bullion stores seemingly more there than in Michigan. I buy silver town engelhard and Johnson mattey rounds and flats in one and ten troy ounce bars and rounds. The spread over spot is less on the buy side than with walking liberty silver coins or maple leafs. I had sold those at 96 percent of spot when I cashed out. But to give you an idea. Bars and rounds 20 spot plus ten percent plus a buck for small quantity purchase at a bullion dealer and you will pay 23 for a name brand silver piece. A walking liberty will be a dollar more. When you sell them you should get some reasonable percent of spot the walking liberty will bring a little more on the sell as well. But if you do the math. The spread from sell to buy is usually more so it is harder to sell on the up and make a profit. Remember you can talk about shtf all day long but if it does not happen you still can make a profit. If you buy low and sell high.


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## jimb1972

I pick a price point, when it is under my buy price I try to buy 20oz a month, currently if it is under $20 I buy, over $27 I sell a few on ebay and buy more when the price declines.


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## redhawk

I'd like to buy some silver, mainly in ingots, not the silver eagles though. I think you pay more for "art" silver...JM2C


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## jimb1972

redhawk said:


> I'd like to buy some silver, mainly in ingots, not the silver eagles though. I think you pay more for "art" silver...JM2C


You do pay more for the Canadian Maple leafs and silver Eagles, but they hold their value a little better too. I buy from JMbullion and APMEX generally, mostly 1oz silver rounds from reputable mints in whatever design is cheapest.


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## PalmettoTree

I buy US silver coins. I have been collecting silver coins since childhood. My goal is to have one of every date and mint mark made. Some are so rare that I know I'll never get there. That is one my indulgences. Guns the other.

But I'm also an investor and keep less than 1% in SLV so every time (usually twice a day) I look at my portfolio I see what silver is doing.

I think I said it on this board, maybe elsewhere back in early March late Feb. I said that six to eight months from now the experts would say we are in a new recession. The government number says we had .01% economic growth in the first qtr? others say it was -.01%. If that is correct there is quarter one of three necessary for a recession.

But the silver price says I'm wrong unless the PM collector/investors are over bought. I think maybe tat is true. I think the new money that got in after the price hit $30 will never return. That is a lot of young prepper types. A lot of them might be selling and flooding the hard market every time a season hits like Christmas and summer. 

Is my opinion right or wrong?


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## Will2

IMO you should only acquire what you think you will need.

Speculation is tricky business as you need to realize you are acquiring a commodity, and that is what it is worth. Fiat currencies etc.. are more questionable.

The idea of currency is that it is easier for trade, while in a Marxist society you may actually have use for things.

Silver is usable for a variety of applications from antibiotics, to metal craft.

If you have silver look into its uses, and gauge about setting up shop to make use of your raw materials you have stockpiled.

Metal is just weight.

For instance consider getting a metal kiln oven and making your coins into tiles for your roof. Metal roofs tend to last way longer.

I am in the process of putting scrap metal on my leaky garage roof. trying to tear apart an old fridge.

IMO only invest what you need or can use. Buy a barrel of oil or two, it has a shelf life though, metals don`t that is why gold and silver are so useful.

Other metals can oxydize.

There are some new metal stockpiles opening up.

Gold actually is a heavily used metal, however the US has a thing about gold.

IMO invest in what you need, diversify. Unless you have a market it is speculation and with speculation there is an upside and a downside. A strong investment profolio will also include liquid cash, potentially in various reserve or location currencies.

When I first looked at silver about 10 years ago it was sitting at about $10 an ounce (12 actually) which means it went up around 30% over the past 10 years. which is a 3% growth rate. None the less Supply is mostly consumed by industrial processes. The more precious the metal the more likely you are to have staying value. Of course gold and silver tend to be easily cashable currencies. My precious metals are in another form and are not 99.5% or higher so don`t have easy industrial reuse. I won`t give my secret away but I`m not making money or storing large amounts of value. IMO you can buy scrap when you see it for a good price. All metal has value. Getting a kiln or furnace though is that dividing line between hoarder and industry. Some metal sheers a diamond tip drill or saw can go a long way in converting metal stockpiles to production of metal goods. With 3dprinting now plastics can replace a lot of the old need for metal, much like I suppose new nano carbon epoxys may replace a bunch of uses. China is even moving into 3d metal printing, which is more advanced sintering.

Currencies can loose value quickly, metals tend to keep a medium of value.. however in event of certain production areas (that use gold not make gold) being destroyed such as nuclear war, gold if the markets remain open, may become highly volitile, while large scale conventional war may see the price increase. For silver these same effects are in place.

You can make silver ware, plates, cases for electronics, faraday cages, cells, change over your house wiring to silver etc.. it is the best conductor afterall.

None the less. It is a bear investing strategy. While you may not keep up with the dollar, look at it in reference to other currencies also. The US dollar has been insulated to date, but there has been an ongoing push to shift to other reserves, including the chinese yuan RMB etc.. The US economy will also continue to become unstable over the next 15 years as budget pressures force the US government to withdrawl from promoting stimulus in the economy, and public sector inputs into the economy shrink. The US also will face increasing domestic economy issues such as natural resource, water supply, and critical infrastructure obsolescence (including in the nuclear energy field) stockpiles or precious metals like plutonium and otherwise will be all but gone. The US does have critical issues to address so don`t look at your silver now and say, it won`t keep up. A lot can change in the fortune of the dollar. While perhaps not overnight, silver is a bear investment and you shouldn`t look at it any other way than that. Commodities may rise over time, but short of major crisis and drive in demand industries market rates will not dramatically increase overnight they are invested in because they are stable investments.

Look at it that way and you should know how much you want to invest in. Unless you have an industry that uses the stuff, it makes no sense to stockpile large amounts unless you have capital bleed over in fiat.

http://geology.com/articles/uses-of-silver/


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## orlandopatriot

As with any investment you never want to "bet the farm" on any particular asset. However, there is no way we can quadruple the money supply in five years AND continue to increase the money supply at a rate of another half a trillion a year and NOT have precious metals rise significantly at some point in the near future. 

The only reason we don't have inflationary pressures (yet) is because our economy is still declining and a declining economy causes prices to fall (deflation) so all this extra money is being used to offset deflation. 

But once the economy starts to recover even a little bit there will be inflationary pressures and that is when precious metals will rise significantly (in my opinion).

I still believe what our federal reserve is doing is very dangerous and I believe will cause long term damage just for some short term benefits and when that happens gold/silver/etc. will rise significantly. 


Sent from my iPad using Outdoor Forums


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## Prepp(g)er

paraquack said:


> Coin sales TV show was hawking 1 oz .45 acp bullets (solid silver) for only $29 each and 2 oz .308 cal bullets for $65. only $10 for ship and handling. Is there something I'm missing here? I mean really?? What am I missing???


you never know, when you need to shoot a werewolf or something...haha. $29 for maybe saving your life?:shock:


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## Denton

paraquack said:


> Coin sales TV show was hawking 1 oz .45 acp bullets (solid silver) for only $29 each and 2 oz .308 cal bullets for $65. only $10 for ship and handling. Is there something I'm missing here? I mean really?? What am I missing???


Silver Bullet Bullion from Northwest Territorial Mint

NWTM makes them. You can even get a 25 ounce piece in the form of a 20mm round.

Novelty items, with novelty item prices. Not the most prudent way of storing wealth, if you ask me. :lol:


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## Tennessee

Buying silver, bullets or any item for barter you need to diversify. You’ll never know what you are going to need to trade with until the event happens. Diversification is your best bet. For example I would not need to trade with someone that has bullets. I have all the bullets I need.


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## Prepp(g)er

lol all that talk about silver makes me wanna buy some...prices are good...alright then on my way to work i'm gonna buy some oz...


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## alterego

Picked up two troy ounces of engelhard today 23.25 each. Not great price but fair.


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## Smitty901

It goes up it goes down over time it may find a newer average to settle on higher than it was in the past. if you invest you ride the long train. if you gamble you ride the short bus.
Nothing wrong with taking chance if you can afford to lose, you know it up front and you have time to recover if it goes south on you.
That is why as you age your investments more to safer bets. Simple issue of nit enough time for do overs.


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## Casie

I'm sure you guys already know the "spot" price of gold and silver is fixed by paper GLD and SLV stocks (ETFs). This *paper* silver and gold is traded on commodities exchanges such as COMEX, in quantities as much as much as 99x over the actual physical amount of available metals.

What does this mean? Simply that if all parties "stood for delivery" that it would be impossible for the warehouses and the short players to actually meet their obligations, and "someone" would be left standing without a chair.

If (when) this happens it is very *important* that the spot price be low, so that exchanges can "default", not deliver metals, and pay you off with fiat cash at the low spot price.

But here's the interesting news!

The Beginning Of The End Of Precious Metals Manipulation: The London Silver Fix Is Officially Dead | Zero Hedge

"Following a crackdown on precious metal manipulation by various European regulators (mostly Germany's BaFin), which led to the shocking outcome that Deutsche Bank would pull out of the London gold and silver fixing committees, the London Silver Market Fixing company ended up with a most curious outcome: it would have just two members: HSBC and Bank of Nova Scotia."

And, as an even more shocking result, overnight the London Silver Fix announced that after August 14, 2014 it will no longer exist. 
*
The London Silver Market Fixing Limited (the 'Company') announces that it will cease to administer the London Silver Fixing with effect from close of business on 14 August 2014.*

Granted, we will still have the COMEX here trying to keep a tight lid on PMs, but the cracks are starting to show. And when they do indeed lose their grip, we will see natural price discovery. And it won't be $20 an ounce for silver.

More links if anyone is interested.

From Rothschild To Koch Industries: Meet The People Who "Fix" The Price Of Gold | Zero Hedge

http://www.rapidtrends.com/understanding-paper-versus-physical-gold/


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## Casie

Largest Dutch bank defaults on physical gold deliveries to customers - National Finance Examiner | Examiner.com

*^^^Last year the ABN AMRO, the largest Dutch bank in the Eurozone, issued a letter to their gold contract customers of failure of delivery, and instead will pay account holders in a paper currency equivalent to the current spot value of the metal.*

COMEX Default Risk As Gold Inventories Plummet 36% | Zero Hedge

Gold market could see a default and fail to deliver as early as February - National Finance Examiner | Examiner.com


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## Inor

Casie -

I have not followed the PM markets for a couple years now. I bought the amount we wanted to have on hand prior to the run-up in 2009-10. I have "a rule" about following a security after I do not intend to trade it further and that is to completely ignore all news about it. I.E. I NEVER follow a stock after I sell it and since the silver and gold we have is intended for our grandkids unless SHTF, I do not intend to trade it any time soon.

So onto my question...

The last I heard JP Morgan was heavily involved with manipulating the silver market. Is that no longer the case? Did they finally come clean and certify the amount they have on hand is enough to cover their ETFs?


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## Ripon

I do not recall JP ever admitting a problem, or changing a thing. But I don't go looking for it either.



Inor said:


> Casie -
> 
> I have not followed the PM markets for a couple years now. I bought the amount we wanted to have on hand prior to the run-up in 2009-10. I have "a rule" about following a security after I do not intend to trade it further and that is to completely ignore all news about it. I.E. I NEVER follow a stock after I sell it and since the silver and gold we have is intended for our grandkids unless SHTF, I do not intend to trade it any time soon.
> 
> So onto my question...
> 
> The last I heard JP Morgan was heavily involved with manipulating the silver market. Is that no longer the case? Did they finally come clean and certify the amount they have on hand is enough to cover their ETFs?


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## Casie

Inor you nailed it! I could rant about the Morgue for an hour, but I'll try to stay focused.

In the last 3 years JPM has piled up the largest holding of physical silver in modern world. (somewhere between 150 and 200 million ounces of physical silver)

They have (ab)used their ability to set the silver price in the leveraged paper COMEX market, while simultaneously benefiting from lower prices to accumulate the physical metal.

Ted Butler:
*
"JPM has caused the price of silver to be depressed via a concentrated short position on the COMEX along with the ability to crush prices in an HFT second, to then scooping up physical metal (and covering paper shorts) at the self-created depressed prices.

What this also highlights is the madness and illegality of having the paper price on the COMEX setting the price in the physical market. If JPM hadn't been capable of rigging silver prices lower in 2013, it would never have been able to buy back 100 million ounces of short paper contracts and buy many tens of millions of physical silver as well."*

Once not too long ago, this behavior would result in a lengthy jail sentence and financial ruin. So how is Jamie getting away with it?

JPMorgan Chase has racked up more than $31 billion in fines, penalties and legal settlements just since 2009.

In June of 2012 Jamie Dimon was ordered to answer questions at a senate banking committee hearing. (Concerning the Madoff scandal and the 2012 'London Whale' scandal, in which JPM lost $6.2bn in a series of high risk suspect trades) Check out the cufflinks Jamie wore that day.

















Mmmm nice right? Those are a set of presidential cufflinks, emblazoned with the seal of the President of the United States, and given to him as a gift from Obama. What message do you think he was sending the senate banking committee?

Then in Sep of 2013, Dimon met with Attorney General Eric Holder at the Department of Justice headquarters to discuss ending multiple government investigations into its liability for selling shoddy mortgage securities, and market manipulation. Later that week Holder was making his "Too big too fail. Too big to jail." speech.

Also did you know JPM administers nearly half of all states' Electronic Benefit Transfer (EBT), Women, Infants, and Children (WIC), and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits programs? How profitable do you think that is?

Peter Schweizer has a guess.

*"Just how lucrative JP Morgan's EBT state contracts are is hard to say, because total national data on EBT contracts are not reported. But thanks to a combination of public-records requests and contracts that are available online, here's what we do know: 18 of the 24 states JP Morgan handles have been contracted to pay the bank up to $560,492,596.02 since 2004. Since 2007, Florida has been contracted to pay JP Morgan $90,351,202.22. Pennsylvania's seven-year contract totaled $112,541,823.27. New York's seven-year contract totaled $126,394,917."*

But don't feel bad. Jamie gives some of that money right back. In the 2012 election cycle, JPMorgan's PAC donated $18.7 million to federal candidates and committees. Jamie has also been known to donate to Republican candidates who benefit the banking industry, so he's an non partisan criminal slime ball.

And yet another fun fact, the head of the Philadelphia Fed has served as a consultant to JP Morgan Chase. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, William Dudley, was a former managing director at Goldman Sachs. In fact here's a fun graphic of all the Goldman Sachs employees that have moved into the Obama government.









Basically I'm saying the markets are fake, spot prices are fake, interest rates are being faked, inflation numbers are fake, GDP reports.... You get the idea.

However, with the coming closure of The London Silver Market Fixing Limited, manipulation will become a little harder to control. Throw in variables like Russia's (and the BRICs) plan to "De-Dollarize" and drop USD from bilateral trade, and we may see some serious price discovery of silver and gold sooner rather than later.

If you stack, maybe consider the suppressed spot prices as an opportunity to buy.

Seriously I could rant about this all day. Feel free to add, fact check, question, or bitch along with me. I've learned *never* to mention this topic in polite conversation with friends, colleagues and most family! Does this rant make me look like crazy Ann Barnhardt?


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## PalmettoTree

Has the up tic rule been reinstated for short triggers? That is all it would take to eliminate many problems caused by short sales.

I have never shorted it seems contrary to my mind set when it comes to investing. That is probably an unsophicated view.


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## Casie

Yeah. They call it the "alternative uptick rule" now, but this time it only applies sometimes, on some securities. It's pretty arbitrary and ineffective. To me, it just appears to be yet another tool TPTB can use or ignore, to game the system in the name of "fairness". 

I agree with you 100%! But I simply lack the cajones to short anything! There is no sensible way for regular individuals to short and safely stay short. You can't fight the FED! 

Ahhh, if only we were privy to all the juicy front running information that congress or the giant banks have.


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## Smitty901

Does anyone remember the Hunt brothers? History


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## PalmettoTree

Smitty901 said:


> Does anyone remember the Hunt brothers? History


Yes, they paid a heavy price. Anytime anyone thinks they have a system that ignores the marketplace they lose. That is the reason I do not invest by charts.


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## pharmer14

PalmettoTree said:


> I never thought silver would break 30 again in my lifetime but I expected it would be north of 20 by now. I hate it when I'm wrong.


Sounds like it's time to buy.


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## PalmettoTree

pharmer14 said:


> Sounds like it's time to buy.


I can't eat silver until it goes up. I'm a dividend investor. I keep about $10 in SLV just so I see how it move when looking at my portfolio. My serious silver is in US coins. Not the lowest cost form of silver investing but I enjoy it.


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## Young_and_prepared

paraquack said:


> Coin sales TV show was hawking 1 oz .45 acp bullets (solid silver) for only $29 each and 2 oz .308 cal bullets for $65. only $10 for ship and handling. Is there something I'm missing here? I mean really?? What am I missing???


I was just on the website and they are now selling them just over spot!


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