# It Happened in the 1800's so what if now? Scenario



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

In the past I've referred to the "Summer that never was". As we approach the end of winter imagine this scenario.

It's Saturday morning. A prepper on Prepperforums.net provides a link to a brief AP story that notes two Russian east coast volcanos are in massive eruption, and likely to impact air travel to Alaska and maybe Seattle. Saturday noon there is no update. Saturday 5 PM no updates, no new stories, nothing but that same ole early am link. By Sunday morning a college professor registers a new account on preppersforum.net. He says:

Hello all, I'm a college proffessor in Portland Or. I believe today, Sunday and maybe tomorrow, is the only time we will have to prep. Within 24-48 hrs the news of massive eruptions in Russian volcanos is going to be told. We are going to suffer a 3-6 month "nuclear" winter under those volcanic clouds in the northern hemisphere of the U.S., Canada and even Mexico. A month later it will even cover Europe for probably 2-3 months. There will be no food production, no solar power, and even many nuclear plants will have to shut down due to severe air quality issues. You are the people that know what to do. I'm not well prepared please help. Im offering you this advanced knowledge of the immediate future in hopes you will give me guidance. What do I do?


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Year Without a Summer - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

When it happened 1816.

My advice for the Prof...

1) hit the 24 hr open Walmart right now,
2) hit the Costco when it opens,
3) have spouse and kids pack while you tap those stores, 
4) buy SUV on credit and bug out by 3PM


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

I've read about "The Year Without a Summer" 1816 and I might stock up on food with the expectation it was going to get more expensive. My ancestors were in upstate NY and Vermont at the time and they had snow in July. They all came through the experience just fine, although records show crops were destroyed that summer and food became expensive. I would consider getting some face masks to cut down on the dust I was breathing day to day.


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## Mad Trapper (Feb 12, 2014)

A good reason to grow frost hardy and/or storable foods in the garden.

Carrots turnips kale broccoli, etc won't mind a little snow. Have seeds to last a few years too.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Food would be more expensive but that would be about the extent of the problem… realize this is a hemispheric event, and much of what we eat comes from South America already, which would basically be unaffected. 

Bug out to where, Costa Rica? Via SUV?


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

All I stock up on is spring and fall variety seeds, to grow more in mid-summer. I get around to improving my plant covers -- maybe build that greenhouse we've been considering. We make sure our propane tank is full (it'll heat us a whole winter for barely over half a tank so we could stretch it one really lousy winter if necessary) while prices are fairly low. I'll wait a year to put those trees in the BOL.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

College proffessor in Portland Or. State run. I would ignore him and go one with my day.


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## Prepadoodle (May 28, 2013)

Volcanoes also spew out a lot of toxic gasses. I have no idea how far these would go at ground level, but this might be a good time to have a gas mask, depending where you live. Even if gas isn't a problem, you don't want to breath the ash, so at least have a few surgical masks. (although these could be improvised with bandannas or whatever)

It would probably be a good idea to seal your house as best you can. Tape up those windows and doors.

Having as much food and water as possible is a must.

I know mushrooms will grow in low light, but there must be other things you can grow under low light conditions.

If you expect a heavy ash deposit, some way of sweeping off your roof might prevent a collapse. If your house is built to withstand a heavy snow load, this probably won't be an issue, but you never know how much ash you'll get.

This is where a hybrid solar/wind system would shine. Even a 600 watt wind turbine is better than nothing.

Pick up a few extra air filters for your vehicle. I'm guessing the ash would clog it up fast if you had to drive. Assuming you could drive, that is. I doubt most vehicles would be able to make it through a foot of ash.

Ammo, guns, yadda yadda yadda.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

An event as described would make Argentina look good.


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

I would go straight to the hydroponics store and max out my creditcards.
Buy all the growlux flourescents in the hardware store.
Mebbe even buy some trout and go aquaponics.

Seriously, It'll be cold outside, and the ash will cut into the red and blue spectrums, inhibiting plant growth, but solar should still work marginally. Two volcanoes would give us a fairly localized effect (localized to this hemisphere) so we would still get food, we'd just have to import it all and we would be vulnurable during that phase. Inflation would spiral, and there would be some export tarriffs levied against those filthy gringos (payback for all the times we stepped on them.) But it would be survivable. Where we would be hurt even more is that the ash and fallout will come down in some form of hydrochloric acid. It's always a different recipe, but at it's core is muratic acid that builds up in the soil and ruins it. You can compost to counter the effect, but it will damage your fields. 

Now if you set off the entire ring of fire...then you'd be punked.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

Take the 1 ton down to the local food warehouse, wholesale not retail, and load up on canned goods. By the pallet at the dock. Fill up all the diesel cans, if any are empty. Button up the upstairs and move into the basement, smaller area to heat. Lock and load.


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## sparkyprep (Jul 5, 2013)

At this point, if you are not adequately prepared, it is too late. My advice to the professor, go to the store, and buy everything you can. Empty the bank accounts and turn them into non-perishable food, generator, fuel, water filters, etc. wish him the best of luck.

Me? I go to the store, empty the bank accounts on food and fuel (you can't have too much) before the crowds find out. Go home, harden the house (board up windows, etc.). Bring the animals into the barn. Lock and load.


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

But this would be a slow motion apocalypse. It wouldn;t be like BAM! you're apocalypted! The volcanoes would erupt for days. Flights would be dalayed, the ash would spread steadily. By the time it was even a mainstream news event (carried by both liberal and conservative press) there would be ash wiell distributed. Flights would be diverted (the silica beads in the ash are so suuuuper small that they easily melt to the fast spinning compressor-stage blades of modern jets.) That would screw up airports and some of the food (time critical stuff like fruits n lobster).

So we would be a month into the eruptions before the efects would be felt. It would matter most the time of year that it occured because it would kill the food in the ground at that moment. So if you were six weeks from harvesting your corn when the volcanoes blew their tops, you would still get your crop in, it would just be a little stunted at the end. But the acid rains would soak the soil for the next season.

But if the volcanoes went off in the middle of the Northern Hemisphere's growing season, then we would never harvest our corn, potatoes, radishes, tobacco, cotton, and most other domestic crops. Wheat too... We could get food from elsewhere, but it'd cost.

So to survive this scenario you need to have the foresight to see the disaster as it unfolds. you would have about 2 weeks before the world began getting wise and buying up critical resources. So the real question is: would you really go shopping in those two weeks, and beat the masses?


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

I don't know how a 1 to 2 degree drop in temperature would cause crop failure, or snow for that matter. If the dust or ash is light enough and gets propelled high enough into the atmosphere i believe it would stay up there for a while. It would kind of get stuck.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

James m said:


> I don't know how a 1 to 2 degree drop in temperature would cause crop failure, or snow for that matter. If the dust or ash is light enough and gets propelled high enough into the atmosphere i believe it would stay up there for a while. It would kind of get stuck.


In 1816 Mt. Tambora blew up in the Pacific. The resulting ash caused frost and even a few snowfalls in New England in the middle of the summer. Northern Europe suffered too. It wasn't just 1 or 2 degrees below normal. A similar event would be a problem today, not only for what it would do to the food supply but also what it would do to air transportation. Lung ailments would increase.

On the other hand in 1816 people didn't even know what had happened. It was more like Snow? In July? WTF? Life went on and it would go on for us too.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

I read the article that was linked in here wrong, it said average global temp dropped 1-2 I assumed that was local temps.

From the article: " Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 95*°F (35*°C) to near-freezing within hours." 

A greenhouse to supplement what you already have stored.


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

The funny thing about the scenario is that much of the time there will just be these hazy skies caused by ashen altostratus clouds. There would still be light most days, but the red and blue spectrums would be inhibited. Blue for growth, red for blooming. Your plants would either be stunted during early development by lack of blue spectrum, or fail to bloom and fruit due to lack of red spectrum, or both. All under these hazy bright skies.

Think of The Road.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

time to dig out the gold card


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

It's more about reduced sunlight, air quality and such then temperature. If it occurred ahead of our traditional planting season the biggest producer of food on the planet will need to import food to survive, no food for animals either, bad times ahead.



James m said:


> I don't know how a 1 to 2 degree drop in temperature would cause crop failure, or snow for that matter. If the dust or ash is light enough and gets propelled high enough into the atmosphere i believe it would stay up there for a while. It would kind of get stuck.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Ripon said:


> In the past I've referred to the "Summer that never was". As we approach the end of winter imagine this scenario.
> 
> It's Saturday morning. A prepper on Prepperforums.net provides a link to a brief AP story that notes two Russian east coast volcanos are in massive eruption, and likely to impact air travel to Alaska and maybe Seattle. Saturday noon there is no update. Saturday 5 PM no updates, no new stories, nothing but that same ole early am link. By Sunday morning a college professor registers a new account on preppersforum.net. He says:
> 
> Hello all, I'm a college proffessor in Portland Or. I believe today, Sunday and maybe tomorrow, is the only time we will have to prep. Within 24-48 hrs the news of massive eruptions in Russian volcanos is going to be told. We are going to suffer a 3-6 month "nuclear" winter under those volcanic clouds in the northern hemisphere of the U.S., Canada and even Mexico. A month later it will even cover Europe for probably 2-3 months. There will be no food production, no solar power, and even many nuclear plants will have to shut down due to severe air quality issues. You are the people that know what to do. I'm not well prepared please help. Im offering you this advanced knowledge of the immediate future in hopes you will give me guidance. What do I do?


Bug out now far from people, especially wads of feckless population. Order a years worth of dehydrated bucket foid at the current price before news breaks. It has begun. You can't trade plague juice and diesel for anything stuck in a refugee snuffer.
We're a geek tribe (med/org science) in the sw on the east side of the divide. Full time production up out of the goon bag savagery if you get out of there.
It's all frying as bad as cali anyway and there's about to be massive moving....
(2 years of rent, food and drug money ($1,500/mo?) Will buy a cot space with the happy tribe of invisible heads who sell shiny stuff to stupid warlords if you hurry...)

The thing is, that is a more likely scenario than nuclear war. Even at the moment.
That crop failure thing would be a worse disaster than "pandemic!" too.
But - it's not today!


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Camel923 said:


> An event as described would make Argentina look good.


in less than 7 days I could be nicely tucked up the Rio Dulce river. Solar power, watermaker, provisions. Set for awhile.

But if this were indeed happen, like suggested I'd hit the stores to stock up on a few items then I'd hunker down. Wouldn't leave where I'm located in Texas.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

a side comment regarding volcano's. When Mt Saint Helen blew her top...or side as the case was, I was living just outside of London. I remember waking up a few morning afterwards and my car was covered in a fine coat of ash. Nothing serious.. just looked like dust but it was definately ash. Give you an idea of what one volcano might do.


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## jbrooks19 (May 22, 2014)

I'd hit the stores like previously mentioned..come back and harden the house then hunker down in the basement, it is finished, has a stocked bar, pool table and all my preps.. Family would be relocated which they wouldn't like having to live in the basement but they'd get over it.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

I'd do some more research and if it was a reality;

Stock up on a few more months of food items and vital meds;
Probably get that whole house generator that I've been saving for and upgrade to a larger additional LP gas tank;
Fill my gasoline stores
Add a bunch of masks and filters
Since I have the money, I'd go ahead and pay my property taxes just in case the idiots in government decide to not let the "crisis go to waste". 

But I would not go into debt or alter my current plans too much.


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## jbrooks19 (May 22, 2014)

Slippy said:


> I'd do some more research and if it was a reality;
> 
> Stock up on a few more months of food items and vital meds;
> Probably get that whole house generator that I've been saving for and upgrade to a larger additional LP gas tank;
> ...


I would say I'd hide in Slipp's basement, but that is where he keeps the whips and chains.... I don't wanna be there.....


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

For some reason this reply stuck with me a little. To me the "professor" is asking for help and is providing those who can give it advance warning. Its likely, thanks to him, I'd have "days" of peaceful tranquility to make reasonable additions to my bug out location and get there in peace. So I'd be a little more giving to the professor;

As I stated in the second post I'd advise him to hit up the 24 hr Wal Mart for what he can afford in terms of canned goods, medicines and even tools. In that same breath I'd tell him to "judge" when he thought this would be news and to note that he best bug out before it was. I'd suggest he be prepared to spend more at a Costco like store as soon as it opened, get bulk foods, more meds if needed, a generator if possible, and even some alcohol. I'd advise him to head down to the "RV" shop, finance a trailer, and insure one his vehicles can move it - or get a vehicle that can. Pack that RV, get extra propane, and get out of town as quickly as possible. If he truly were in Portland OR I'd likely invite him to my BOL as I have a means of doing so without giving up my precise location. I could use an educated person to tell me more about when it might be safe to plant my next crops, and one willing to ask / learn about how to survive. I'd rather have him there then my brother in law who thinks having a cupboard full of cans is a waste of money.



Smitty901 said:


> College proffessor in Portland Or. State run. I would ignore him and go one with my day.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

If you really want to help the professor, just advise him to get into prepping. Will it really matter whether the problem is a volcano causing another year without a summer, or something totally different? If he preps he'll be ready for a wide variety of problems, including the volcano he is worried about.


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

If you wanted to prep for something like this then yoou should consider buyiing rice/mashed potatoes in bulk...like 55 gallon drums. this would be a chronic condition that could last for up to 5 years, depending on the volcanoes. Most likely we would only have a single year of haze, but an extraorbital impact at just the right spot (like the edge of the ring of fire or a major faultline that leads into an ocean.) A meteor impact also raises the issues of an impact in water---it is theorized that an oceanic impact of significant force could create a big hole in the ozone (and cause northern lights over the impact sight)


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## SAR-1L (Mar 13, 2013)

So basically the OP's scenario is this movie? The Road (2009) - IMDb


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

SAR-1L said:


> So basically the OP's scenario is this movie? The Road (2009) - IMDb


That isn't the scenario brought to my mind. The Year Without a Summer was a real event that took place in 1816. Checking Amazon there appear to be two books available on the subject so if the scenario interests you, there is a lot more detail available. I've read this one:

Volcano Weather: The Story of 1816, the Year Without a Summer: Henry M Stommel, Elizabeth Stommel: 9780915160716: Amazon.com: Books

which is out of print, but this is a current publication:

Amazon.com: The Year Without Summer: 1816 and the Volcano That Darkened the World and Changed History eBook: William K. Klingaman, Nicholas P. Klingaman: Kindle Store

The OP is basically asking about the same event occurring now. What would be the impact and how should one prepare?


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Ripon said:


> In the past I've referred to the "Summer that never was". As we approach the end of winter imagine this scenario.
> 
> It's Saturday morning. A prepper on Prepperforums.net provides a link to a brief AP story that notes two Russian east coast volcanos are in massive eruption, and likely to impact air travel to Alaska and maybe Seattle. Saturday noon there is no update. Saturday 5 PM no updates, no new stories, nothing but that same ole early am link. By Sunday morning a college professor registers a new account on preppersforum.net. He says:
> 
> Hello all, I'm a college proffessor in Portland Or. I believe today, Sunday and maybe tomorrow, is the only time we will have to prep. Within 24-48 hrs the news of massive eruptions in Russian volcanos is going to be told. We are going to suffer a 3-6 month "nuclear" winter under those volcanic clouds in the northern hemisphere of the U.S., Canada and even Mexico. A month later it will even cover Europe for probably 2-3 months. There will be no food production, no solar power, and even many nuclear plants will have to shut down due to severe air quality issues. You are the people that know what to do. I'm not well prepared please help. Im offering you this advanced knowledge of the immediate future in hopes you will give me guidance. What do I do?


You know, I hate to spoil a good crisis, but has anyone actually seen the alleged article the Prof is supposedly quoting. I don't seen anything - even on the volcano watch web site.

Is this just a Hoax?


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

SARGE7402 said:


> You know, I hate to spoil a good crisis, but has anyone actually seen the alleged article the Prof is supposedly quoting. I don't seen anything - even on the volcano watch web site.
> 
> Is this just a Hoax?


Absolutely it is a hoax, but the link the OP used connects to an article about 1816 aka "The Year without a Summer" which has been under discussion since. Volcanos are no more predictable than earthquakes, so to pin one down to a 48 period is not within the capabilities of modern science. Meanwhile the events of 1816 did happen and are worthy of discussion.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Hoax or would our govt restrict the truth for fear of panic? What happens if the 6 pm news proclaims food production just ended for six months....good luck


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> Hoax or would our govt restrict the truth for fear of panic? What happens if the 6 pm news proclaims food production just ended for six months....good luck


It would be pretty hard to hide a volcano going off and I don't think there would be much point. This is also not an event like an EMP going off. It would take awhile after the eruption to figure out where the ash was going, where the impacts would be and so forth. Crops would not be instantaneously destroyed world wide. They might be destroyed weeks or months later in some places, stunted in others, and unaffected in still others. Mt. Tambora was in the Pacific and the ash had some affect in lots of places but the most dramatic affects in the US were in New England. Once you got down to NJ the impact was much less. To some extent food prices went up. Some people in New England decided to migrate to Pennsylvania. It wasn't a TEOTWAWKI then and I doubt it would be any more abrupt now. It certainly wouldn't be a good thing but let's say we lost crops in New England now. Dairy products in VT would be affected. Overall the impact would be less than Obama getting reelected in 2012.

Read one of the books about 1816. You'll get a much better feel for what to expect.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

If the volcanoes did erupt in Russia we would have weeks or months before the dust cloud made it to the west coast. It would then work its way across the USA and Canada on its way to Europe.

If you don't have a years worth of stored foods it will be very expensive unless you grow food in a hot house of some kind.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/jetstream_model_fcst.html


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

The jets stream might be a savior - if it is going north or south of us. It is not static you know. The Japanese tried to use the jet stream to bomb the US in WWII but only one bomb made it to the states and it failed to go off. It isn't stabile enough to be counted on.


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## BagLady (Feb 3, 2014)

oddapple said:


> Bug out now far from people, especially wads of feckless population. Order a years worth of dehydrated bucket foid at the current price before news breaks. It has begun. You can't trade plague juice and diesel for anything stuck in a refugee snuffer.
> We're a geek tribe (med/org science) in the sw on the east side of the divide. Full time production up out of the goon bag savagery if you get out of there.
> It's all frying as bad as cali anyway and there's about to be massive moving....
> (2 years of rent, food and drug money ($1,500/mo?) Will buy a cot space with the happy tribe of invisible heads who sell shiny stuff to stupid warlords if you hurry...)
> ...


I cannot fathom what you decided to edit...it's just perfectly you...:semi-twins:..both of you.


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## BagLady (Feb 3, 2014)

When Mt. St. Helens in Oregon went off, it took over 3 months, but the ash clouds supposedly went all the way down to Alb. New Mexico.
3 months after the event, I was in Portland for the summer. At the time, the thing that impressed me most, was they were still shoveling ash off of all those flat roofed buildings. We went to the beach several times, and all over the area, and did not have any issues with ash.
I don't have a clue about the crops in that region tho.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

They couldn't hide it, but they can censor its potential harm. Few would equate airlines being diverted to future crop loss. I was told they have formula for each hour the initial plum rises a day of eruption or something...if accurate (I doubt) i doubt a lot of people except academic / geologist types would realize the burden.

It would have to be timesd sadly for us...timed to stop initial plant growth for if that happened we wouldn't have feed crops for the animals we raise nor food crops for the kibble we need....for about 12-15 months.



Diver said:


> It would be pretty hard to hide a volcano going off and I don't think there would be much point. This is also not an event like an EMP going off. It would take awhile after the eruption to figure out where the ash was going, where the impacts would be and so forth. Crops would not be instantaneously destroyed world wide. They might be destroyed weeks or months later in some places, stunted in others, and unaffected in still others. Mt. Tambora was in the Pacific and the ash had some affect in lots of places but the most dramatic affects in the US were in New England. Once you got down to NJ the impact was much less. To some extent food prices went up. Some people in New England decided to migrate to Pennsylvania. It wasn't a TEOTWAWKI then and I doubt it would be any more abrupt now. It certainly wouldn't be a good thing but let's say we lost crops in New England now. Dairy products in VT would be affected. Overall the impact would be less than Obama getting reelected in 2012.
> 
> Read one of the books about 1816. You'll get a much better feel for what to expect.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> They couldn't hide it, but they can censor its potential harm. Few would equate airlines being diverted to future crop loss. I was told they have formula for each hour the initial plum rises a day of eruption or something...if accurate (I doubt) i doubt a lot of people except academic / geologist types would realize the burden.
> 
> It would have to be timesd sadly for us...timed to stop initial plant growth for if that happened we wouldn't have feed crops for the animals we raise nor food crops for the kibble we need....for about 12-15 months.


What would be the point? I think a more likely scenario would be a poor ability to predict where the ash would go or what the effects would be. The people in New England in 1816 didn't even know there was a volcano until long after the fact. News traveled slowly and it took time to connect the volcano to snow in July in New England.

Today we know that volcanic ash in sufficient quantity can harm crops or mess up airplane engines. What else can it do? Could it cause a spike in asthma cases? How long would it take to recognize there was a spike in asthma cases? How long to connect that spike to the volcano? There doesn't need to be anything sinister going on to gum up an air filter.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

The biggest impact would be on crop growth, and the lack of essential crop growth in the months that follow. How many people would pick up on it, if not told, that the U.S. migh have 50% less food production this year. Woukd our govt let that out or hide it?



Diver said:


> What would be the point? I think a more likely scenario would be a poor ability to predict where the ash would go or what the effects would be. The people in New England in 1816 didn't even know there was a volcano until long after the fact. News traveled slowly and it took time to connect the volcano to snow in July in New England.
> 
> Today we know that volcanic ash in sufficient quantity can harm crops or mess up airplane engines. What else can it do? Could it cause a spike in asthma cases? How long would it take to recognize there was a spike in asthma cases? How long to connect that spike to the volcano? There doesn't need to be anything sinister going on to gum up an air filter.


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