# Us dollar



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

US DOLLAR:
Up 5.2% against a broad basket of currencies this year
Up 9.7% since Nov. 2010 after beginning bond purchases
Up 3.1% since Dec 2008 after putting short term interest rates at 0
Up 7.2% since Federal bank bailouts started 15 Sep 2008

I know most replies will cite a future doom but 6 years most here just knew it was at hand. As did the John Birch Society 60 odd years ago.

I have my stash of silver and add to it from time to time. I doubt it will be used or even needed within the next 60 years.

I just do not see any evidence just a sick kind of wishful thinking for life as we know it to end. (Insult for effect and including myself thinking also.) Look at the facts.


----------



## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

As long as the dollar remains the world reserve currency (need it to buy oil) it would appear that normal rules of economics and monetary policy are not applicable in to the way in which the US government borrows and prints its way to the new utopia. If normal rules of economics 101 applied, severe corrections would have occurred years ago in my opinion.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Camel923 said:


> As long as the dollar remains the world reserve currency (need it to buy oil) it would appear that normal rules of economics and monetary policy are not applicable in to the way in which the US government borrows and prints its way to the new utopia. If normal rules of economics 101 applied, severe corrections would have occurred years ago in my opinion.


In an isolated system you would be correct. However the global environment is increasing toward the USD favor.


----------



## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

Well let me just say that IF (the operative word) we don't stop this insanity with re to 17, on its way to 20, TRILLION dollar debt, China will find a way to unseat the dollar.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

DerBiermeister said:


> Well let me just say that IF (the operative word) we don't stop this insanity with re to 17, on its way to 20, TRILLION dollar debt, China will find a way to unseat the dollar.


I agree our debt is past out of hand. However China has its own problems. In the total global relationship I cannot see China changing enough to make that move. If Russia was not being lead by Putin I would fear them most.

Again you are right something must give but I cannot see what when. Therefore the current situation will feed on itself until there is a crash.

Now this question. Our economy crashed due to real estate but monetary policy and the USD did not. Is there another crash regarding spending that can occur without completely crashing the USD to the point it loses its reserve standing?


----------



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

My worry is that China will continue their push to remove the USD from being the petro dollar.
If the oil cartels ever agree to this, we're boned.
They won't agree to it until there is a more stable option.
With China's ever increasing need for oil, they could overtake us as a major consumer, and sway the cartel's favor.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Kauboy said:


> My worry is that China will continue their push to remove the USD from being the petro dollar.
> If the oil cartels ever agree to this, we're boned.
> They won't agree to it until there is a more stable option.
> With China's ever increasing need for oil, they could overtake us as a major consumer, and sway the cartel's favor.


But we are now out producing middle-east oil production. Oil prices are dropping.


----------



## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

Yeah, if we'd get off our asses, we could be setting the world on fire with energy production. It is simply amazing what we are sitting on. We could literally send the ******** back to the stone age in terms of "being important". And you get them out of the equation, and all of a sudden wars over there loose their standing.

Please God --- give us the wherewithal to install smart leaders.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Currently excess oil is being stored on oil tankers for which there is also a glut. Expect a big correction in oil prices.

I failed to see the big picture a three or four weeks ago and purchased VLCCF because of the big oil find off the coast of Australia. My logic was this company would profit from runs between Australia, China and India.

Likely will work out but the market might take a while to see. VLCCF price is dropping so yield is increasing. You can beat me at my own game if you watch.


----------



## Derma-Redi (Aug 23, 2014)

The stock market is at an all time high but that doesn't mean it's warranted! It is precisely because of the FED pumping trillions into a market that is a mirage. It is being supported by a printing press. The majority of people are not even in the markets or limited exposure. yes the working class with a 401K or some other investment is but then again there are more people out of work than working. There are more people on welfare than ever before. Other countries such as Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa know the dollar is on borrowed time which is why they have formed the BRICS.
Other countries are jumping on board as well. World Reserve Currency status is very beneficial to the US obviously. I also believe that the price of precious metals are being manipulated. On the other hand I have some G&S too so time will tell. But I think it's safe to say there is a lot of LIPSTICK on the pig that is our overall economy.. Just my opinion...


----------



## alterego (Jan 27, 2013)

Yes gold silver the us dollar and all facets of all economies world wide are being manipulated heavily. The real question is do you believe and more importantly do the masses believe. 

It's when the masses don't believe any more that it all or one part fails. 

In either case tangible assets will out way money in a savings account.

In my opinion it is simply our time. 

History' mother nature' God does not allow any one thing to go on forever.

We are closer every day to the next big thing.

The dinosaurs once Rome the earth. Then it was man.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Great OP.

I find myself more intrigued about setting up heirs for SHTF then buying into the hype it's just around the corner "buy now."


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Derma-Redi said:


> The stock market is at an all time high but that doesn't mean it's warranted! It is precisely because of the FED pumping trillions into a market that is a mirage. It is being supported by a printing press. The majority of people are not even in the markets or limited exposure. yes the working class with a 401K or some other investment is but then again there are more people out of work than working. There are more people on welfare than ever before. Other countries such as Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa know the dollar is on borrowed time which is why they have formed the BRICS.
> Other countries are jumping on board as well. World Reserve Currency status is very beneficial to the US obviously. I also believe that the price of precious metals are being manipulated. On the other hand I have some G&S too so time will tell. But I think it's safe to say there is a lot of LIPSTICK on the pig that is our overall economy.. Just my opinion...


All this is regurgitation of the same old cliches and as usual absent of any facts to back it up. If you will check the BRICS countries are in more monetary trouble than the US else each would have currencies gaining in strength. Yet China on its own weakened its currency.

I quoted the strength of the USD against a number of metrics all stronger.

Loan velocity is slow so low interest and increased supply has not had the imagined effects of your post. Most all of China's bilateral energy and mining investments are failures.

I'd your post is true I want to know it but I do not see anyone posting facts that demonstrate that the USD is weaker against BRICS or their individual currencies. It reasonable these countries would try to avoid dealing in USDs when trading with each other. Yet they do not seem to be able to reconcile long term exchanges. I am more than willing to be wrong. If I am.

It is not in my best interest to follow a falling dollar. It is not in my interest to follow a failing alternative.

Make your case but please use objective measures.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

It's starting to look to me like the powers that be saw deflation hitting us hard with the housing collapse. Massive printing (creating) may have well stayed a lengthy depression. Of course it helps sell gold, silver and guns (preps) if you sell that creation as the tipping point of failure, and maybe it will. But without an alternative currency it's tough to sell a dollar collapse on me right now. 

BTW California has a 6 year old air quality law hitting Jan. 1 that will impose a new gasoline tax on motorist. It's strangely unknown with some sayings it's just $.14 cents and others claiming it could be a dollar a gallon. Any raise in gas taxes will reduce usage. This has been seen with each increase. So....just another hit on oil demand around the corner.


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

1aud is worth approx 0.90usd, and the value is going up (1aud at lowest this year was 0.83 USD) 

Something is not right (and I only use international trade values to value a economy, when the USA $$ hit a rescission 1aud was buying 1.30usd...) 

The $$ seems like its stabilizing from that event, but I'm not too sure


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> 1aud is worth approx 0.90usd, and the value is going up (1aud at lowest this year was 0.83 USD)
> 
> Something is not right (and I only use international trade values to value a economy, when the USA $$ hit a rescission 1aud was buying 1.30usd...)
> 
> The $$ seems like its stabilizing from that event, but I'm not too sure


What??????


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

You have never done international trade??
1 Australian $ is worth 0.90 us $$ 

If you have ever (not likely) followed international dollar values (as its normally compared to the USA $) you would have noticed the trend that 2 years ago 1 Australian dollar was worth $1.35 USA dollars 

Simple warning for a usa dollar colapse, see how many australian dollars can you purchase with 1 geenback...


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> You have never done international trade??
> 1 Australian $ is worth 0.90 us $$
> 
> If you have ever (not likely) followed international dollar values (as its normally compared to the USA $) you would have noticed the trend that 2 years ago 1 Australian dollar was worth $1.35 USA dollars
> ...


US DOLLAR:
Up 5.2% against a broad basket of currencies this year
Up 9.7% since Nov. 2010 after beginning bond purchases
Up 3.1% since Dec 2008 after putting short term interest rates at 0
Up 7.2% since Federal bank bailouts started 15 Sep 2008


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> US DOLLAR:
> Up 5.2% against a broad basket of currencies this year
> Up 9.7% since Nov. 2010 after beginning bond purchases
> Up 3.1% since Dec 2008 after putting short term interest rates at 0
> Up 7.2% since Federal bank bailouts started 15 Sep 2008


Yes but international value dose not reflect this, australian dollar, new zealand dollar and others are "stronger" againt the USD where they should say something diffrent with these recovery signs, thats the info i was giving


----------



## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

Thats because the U.S. doesn't make anything anymore. Id have to say it just imports things, goods. So all it has is a service industry and selling what it imports.

Hows the U.S. on exports?


----------



## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Palmetto,
I'm not trying to argue or be a smart ass, I'm trying to figure out how the strength/weakness of the dollar vs other currencies will affect me, Mr Average American. With all of the other crappy economic/political things (increased EPA regs, increased Food Stamp participation, Workforce Participation rates low, Huge Federal and State Debts and Deficits, Real Unemployment high, Morality low, family formation low, New housing construction still below 50 year averages, obamacare and potential increased taxation, more retirees, more SS Disability, Higher food and fuel prices due to EPA restrictions, etc etc)...How does all this tie in? 

And do you see a return to the "prosperity levels" that we as a nation saw from the late 80's to the 2006?


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> Yes but international value dose not reflect this, australian dollar, new zealand dollar and others are "stronger" againt the USD where they should say something diffrent with these recovery signs, thats the info i was giving


The dollar is at a six year high against the Yen.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Dollar is stronger against the yuan.
Ruble is at a record low against the dollar.

Against a gauge of six major global rivals, the dollar index was up by 0.23 per cent ahead of the two-day policy setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve starting on Tuesday.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Palmetto,
> I'm not trying to argue or be a smart ass, I'm trying to figure out how the strength/weakness of the dollar vs other currencies will affect me, Mr Average American. With all of the other crappy economic/political things (increased EPA regs, increased Food Stamp participation, Workforce Participation rates low, Huge Federal and State Debts and Deficits, Real Unemployment high, Morality low, family formation low, New housing construction still below 50 year averages, obamacare and potential increased taxation, more retirees, more SS Disability, Higher food and fuel prices due to EPA restrictions, etc etc)...How does all this tie in?
> 
> And do you see a return to the "prosperity levels" that we as a nation saw from the late 80's to the 2006?


A weak dollar means US manufactured goods are cheaper to those that are getting stronger.

So the strength or weakness of the dollar varies in importance to the US based on how much trade we have with each country. So a strong dollar against China's yuan means goods we import will be cheaper.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

It is important to watch the dollars strength against Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa countries. These countries are attempting to open BRICS which they hope will replace the World Bank and IMF. This is similar to the hopes of countries that formed the Euro.

The Euro has demonstrated it is very difficult for sovereign countries to operate in concert to one monetary system. It appears BRICS will try something different. They will each contribute say ten billion equivalent dollars each to BRICS and work from there.

No matter how little anyone knows their guess as to the outcome is as good as the experts. IMO


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> Dollar is stronger against the yuan.
> Ruble is at a record low against the dollar.
> 
> Against a gauge of six major global rivals, the dollar index was up by 0.23 per centahead of the two-day policy setting meeting of the US Federal Reserve starting on Tuesday.


And that's what's setting the pattern for another fall..... the minor rich countries (like australia) is showing growth against the USD...

Oh slippy its about a pattern, good positive growth and recovery shows promise, but a country that did not experence the recession (felt some effects but no where close to the usa and the EU) is not showing these improvements (the real value of au currency to usa currency should hover around 0.85, thats 1 AUD buys 0.85 USD, its not.. And its clawing up)

So what this means to a usa consumer, the chance of increased inflation... Hopefully for you yanks, this recovery rate is slightly boosted, AUD drops to where it should be and the usa has recovered... Worse case, those increases stay put, aud rises to match usd $ for $ and bingo another recession (last recession, aud boomed wile everyone else collapsed... Think about that)

Sorry to sound argumentive, the numbers here, dont match positive growth in the usa or the world (and i was hoping otherwise when my doller went from buying $1.30 something down to 0.85usd...)


----------



## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> A weak dollar means US manufactured goods are cheaper to those that are getting stronger.
> 
> So the strength or weakness of the dollar varies in importance to the US based on how much trade we have with each country. So a strong dollar against China's yuan means goods we import will be cheaper.


Makes sense. 
But does that make up for the domestic issues that we have with an economy that is having difficulty creating jobs other than fast food and part time jobs? 
Even if a manufacturer can sell his product overseas, the overwhelming increased costs, many of which are regulatory related, still cannot make money domestically. People on food stamps and SS Disability tend not to be able to buy many things. The over-reaching governement and the potential for tax increases; some overt and others hidden in social feel good things like obamacare, do not create a good environment for general prosperity.

So, I still see the domestic economic issues dwarfing the good that a "stronger" dollar creates. Add to that the fact that one day, the Fed's policies will change. QE arguably is still nothing but a prop. Banking Regulations (Dodd-Frank) have created a lending environment that is unsustainable.

Where am I going wrong?


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Makes sense.
> But does that make up for the domestic issues that we have with an economy that is having difficulty creating jobs other than fast food and part time jobs?
> Even if a manufacturer can sell his product overseas, the overwhelming increased costs, many of which are regulatory related, still cannot make money domestically. People on food stamps and SS Disability tend not to be able to buy many things. The over-reaching governement and the potential for tax increases; some overt and others hidden in social feel good things like obamacare, do not create a good environment for general prosperity.
> 
> ...


Your looking too deep into social issues..

With $$ trade, its more feel good, but as I pointed out its best use (outside trade) is trying to predict a collapse... When the $$ is strong against key economies your laughing (oh don't stress over China, its government sets their own value, only country that deals in international trade to do so, politically with a small handful of deals internationally where countries are not using the USD anymore as a standard of trade, is bad for USA)


----------



## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> Your looking too deep into social issues..


Yes, but these issues are increasingly paid for by ME!


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Australian Dollar | 1993-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast | News

I have to eat my words, I missed today's report we dropped by a fraction of a cent, not enough tho 

And yes slippy I understand that feeling, but the less the gov pays out in welfare the better the economy (another marker)


----------



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Comparing trade currencies over a period of time is somewhat misleading.
One may stay stagnant while the other increases or decreases, resulting in both appearing to be affected. If the value of one goes up, the ratio makes it appear as if the other went down.
Trends should be analyzed on an individual currency basis first, then compared to others.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> And that's what's setting the pattern for another fall..... the minor rich countries (like australia) is showing growth against the USD...
> 
> Oh slippy its about a pattern, good positive growth and recovery shows promise, but a country that did not experence the recession (felt some effects but no where close to the usa and the EU) is not showing these improvements (the real value of au currency to usa currency should hover around 0.85, thats 1 AUD buys 0.85 USD, its not.. And its clawing up)
> 
> ...


The Australian dollar is weaker over a ten year period. Australia is not one if the ten richest economies. It's dollar varies greatly (see ten yr chart).


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

The Australian economy ranks around 20th. However it is going to be important in the future. A huge crude oil reserve has been discoverer off shore (south if I remember correctly). It is about 16 in fuel trade now and will move up if the price of oil stays up.

It took $100 oil to jump start oil sands. Recovering off shore oil will likely be cheaper. Refining it? I do not know.

With all that the, I'll bet trade grows with India more than China. (Speculation)


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> The Australian dollar is weaker over a ten year period. Australia is not one if the ten richest economies. It's dollar varies greatly (see ten yr chart).


2001/2002 we had a massive dip (some claim the war) and strange on not being top 10, the aud has a lot of international trading power... But its good to compare, don't dismiss the aus data tho, (it scared the crap out of me when our $ hit that high)

Until aus sits around the 0.85 mark I can't say the world is getting where it should be with recession recovery... But until that day.. I'm watching for the real depression


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> With all that the, I'll bet trade grows with India more than China. (Speculation)


I would watch Africa and Vietnam (a lot of manufacturing from china was moved there due to the cost)

Aus has all east temor oil rights has independent value to china as well as a massive raw material deposit

But no refinery, the Brisbane one is shutting down


----------

