# Boom or bust



## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

I scan a handful of prepper and financial sites every day. There are always a few folks preaching ‘doom’ and ‘the end is near’. Most of these are pushing gold or some other doomsday merchandise. But lately I seem to see more articles predicting an end to the present stock market bull run and the resulting pain a crash will bring.

I only know two things for sure. First, the economy and markets are cyclical going up and then down. Second, the present market run has been going on for a long time, maybe too long. So what say you? Is it time to start selling off stocks and moving to cash? Is the crash coming sooner or maybe a few months away?

I am giving this topic a lot of thought since I’m recently retired and can’t afford to take a big hit to my IRA again. I’m seriously considering moving 25 to 30% of my IRA into a money market fund to protect this portion from a market crash. So what do you guys think? Don’t be bashful. All opinions invited!


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## rstanek (Nov 9, 2012)

If your old enough to retire and have enough to retire on, move it ALL to a safe bet, no point in getting greedy....JMO...


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## Illini Warrior (Jan 24, 2015)

don't forget - half those financial guys are anti-Trumpers and trying to kill off the current run and effect the mid-terms ....


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

All my adult life the sky has been falling. In the carter years friends took what they had put it Gold and then silver. They lost their asses. And pretty much everything they owned. Markets went to the moon tech, then they crashed. People bailed out lost their asses.
Same with homes and land. Over and over. Some stayed the course and never lost a dime in real money and ended up coming out pretty good.
Yes as we approach retirement funds were moved to less aggressive funds, but not to worthless zero growth stuff just safer. Spread it out . Generally when one part of the market sinks some another holds or grows. You lose your ass when force to sell just to get by.
When the market rebounds you have nothing left. When your chose market is going up borrowing against it to live a high life or gamble in a market will more often than not end bad. That is how the pros win big when you play the game they control.
Chart a course stay the course review and adjust as needed based on your plan and not short term hype.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Chiefster23 said:


> I scan a handful of prepper and financial sites every day. There are always a few folks preaching 'doom' and 'the end is near'. Most of these are pushing gold or some other doomsday merchandise. But lately I seem to see more articles predicting an end to the present stock market bull run and the resulting pain a crash will bring.
> 
> I only know two things for sure. First, the economy and markets are cyclical going up and then down. Second, the present market run has been going on for a long time, maybe too long. So what say you? Is it time to start selling off stocks and moving to cash? Is the crash coming sooner or maybe a few months away?
> 
> I am giving this topic a lot of thought since I'm recently retired and can't afford to take a big hit to my IRA again. I'm seriously considering moving 25 to 30% of my IRA into a money market fund to protect this portion from a market crash. So what do you guys think? Don't be bashful. All opinions invited!


While you are determining the right strategy for yourself, take into consideration the debt-based financial system. Our government does not coin money as dictated by the constitution. It rents currency from a private bank. Merely using the currency adds debt. This system has to fall from its own weight and there isn't much that can be done about that. It'll have to be replaced, and that replacement will be painful. It might even be Biblical.


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## BookWorm (Jul 8, 2018)

You asked for it. 

I'm not a economical adviser, no college degree and don't drink beer or watch football. BUT... roughly 18 months before the 2008 crash, I went to my boss, (editor) and told him I think we should start scaling back because I don't think this housing market can stay this strong for much longer. I said this simply based on ONE thing. In So Cal values of houses were going up $50,000 every six - twelve months for no reason... fake profit. 

How is it that the 1% have grown in size by leaps and bounds, yet the middle class has shrunk to 1/3 of what it was? Wall Street has been breaking records, yet most all products have gotten smaller in size yet stayed the same price or gone up. Ice Cream is no longer 1/2 gallon (most common size) and every candy bar has gotten up to 50% smaller than it was 20 years ago. Plastic grocery bags have gotten thinner TWICE over the last 3 years. Big corporations are cutting back in every way they can. Even Amazon and Prime membership has gone up. Airlines are still charging for checked bags, while more and more flights are NOT on schedule due to many varied reasons. 

The way I see it, things are not stable. I don't see it all ending well and I don't know how much longer it can continue to go at the pace it has been for the last few years. 

Of course the biggest question is when. If I were within 1-2 years of retirement, I'd be pulling everything I could to cash and get some gold and silver to boot. And even if nothing happens for another 217 years, I'd still learn to live on the cheap until I drop dead. 

I hope this helped in one way or another.


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

BookWorm said:


> You asked for it.
> 
> I'm not a economical adviser, no college degree and don't drink beer or watch football. BUT... roughly 18 months before the 2008 crash, I went to my boss, (editor) and told him I think we should start scaling back because I don't think this housing market can stay this strong for much longer. I said this simply based on ONE thing. In So Cal values of houses were going up $50,000 every six - twelve months for no reason... fake profit.
> 
> ...


Bookworm, you hit the nail on the head! I believe things are extremely unstable.


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## Lunatic Wrench (May 13, 2018)

Most all those financial experts that got air time after 9/11 are a bunch of jack ass's and idiots and a major cause of that financial crisis, followed by self serving so called public servants and more financial jack ass's leading us into the housing crash. 

Being in construction we are about the first to feel it, people stop building when there's fear of money drying up. Construction tends to run in 10 year cycles which we are approaching this upswing.


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

So are you saying that new construction is picking up or slowing down?


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## Lunatic Wrench (May 13, 2018)

Chiefster23 said:


> So are you saying that new construction is picking up or slowing down?


At this point I think things are starting to level off here in the Seattle region. Still more construction jobs then people willing to hold down a job to fill, but it's not crazy like a few years back when even the construction temp agencies were struggling to have people to rent out.
Statistically speaking, things should start slowing down in the next couple/few years.


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## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

OK, got it. I live in a depressed area with few good paying jobs so there is zero new construction here and tons of unsold homes on the market with prices falling.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Chiefster23 said:


> So are you saying that new construction is picking up or slowing down?


2018 New Housing Starts (seasonally adjusted) are currently at approx 1.2 Million Starts per Year.

2017 and 2016 were about the same. The 50 year average from 1959 to 2009 is about 1.6 Million Starts per Year. 2005 was one of the best years for construction at approx 2.1 million houses built and 2009 was the worst at approx 560,000 houses built. Until the US gets to 1.5 million starts, I do not think of it as a healthy construction economy. (my numbers may be off a bit as I wrote this from memory)

I'll post the stats later.

EDITED, SEE BELOW;

https://www.census.gov/construction/nrc/pdf/startsan.pdf


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Home and land value here are on the rise. But it will not harm you unless you gamble on the inflated value. What really hurt a lot of farmers here was when land took a ride to sky high prices. Some saw that as never ending and barrow on the inflated value.
When the market settle back to a reasonable point they had bills due they could not cover and were in over their heads on what they could barrow to buy time.
We had people around here in the 90's that way over built on homes. Could not lose, those that managed to hang on the them are still underwater on them. At that time the idea was build big build fancy who cares about the cost you will flip and always make money.


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