# The price of silver my .02



## budgetprepp-n (Apr 7, 2013)

Hi,
I have a small amount of silver put back for when the dust starts to settle. And I was looking for a few 
dollars of old silver coins to ad to it. I went online to check the price -- Somewhere around 16-to-1 ratio 
So I jump on Craig list to see what is for sale,,, Big surprise- Lots of ads looking to buy silver in any quantity.
Even big lots of silver. But I only see a few selling and most of those only have a few coins or way over priced.
I thought that supply and demand was what regulated the price. Really?? From what I see it looks like there
are more people wanting to buy silver than people wanting top sell it. So why is it bouncing around $20 to $21? 
And I went on eBay and boy it's selling for way over what we are told it worth.

Jump on ebay and enter "silver face" and see what you find. It's more than Coin flation or the Kitco price.
What's keeping the price down?


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## dsdmmat (Nov 9, 2012)

Well the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand. Even though a lot of people want to buy and few want to sell the market is not cornered and they are still producing silver in the mines. So they will pass on what they think is outragous prices and buy from people who are selling around spot prices. Those that want to sell high are SOL because they do not have the market locked up, those who want to buy low have other places to go.


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## budgetprepp-n (Apr 7, 2013)

dsdmmat said:


> Well the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand. Even though a lot of people want to buy and few want to sell the market is not cornered and they are still producing silver in the mines. So they will pass on what they think is outragous prices and buy from people who are selling around spot prices. Those that want to sell high are SOL because they do not have the market locked up, those who want to buy low have other places to go.


 So the supply is there,,,,You just don't see it?


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

dsdmmat said:


> Well the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand. Even though a lot of people want to buy and few want to sell the market is not cornered and they are still producing silver in the mines. So they will pass on what they think is outragous prices and buy from people who are selling around spot prices. Those that want to sell high are SOL because they do not have the market locked up, those who want to buy low have other places to go.


Ok for precious metals buying take what you have in excess after getting food and water and all your other assets inline and then buy silver and gold to take your assets out of the "system" into tangibles.

dsdmmat above has no useful information, so IMO is a government troll, added to my list.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

CL is free, and anonymous so expect people to ask high. I bought a 1992 land cruiser off CL last weekend, and turned out I knew the seller from many years ago. He asked for $3,000 and we agreed at $2,100. Had I not known him I wouldn't have crossed $2k.

I've used CL to buy pre 64 coins at least 10x in the last 3 years. Each time I start offering 70-75% of coinflation. When I get serious I offer 80-85% and have always run out of money buying locally with out big fuel costs.



budgetprepp-n said:


> Hi,
> I have a small amount of silver put back for when the dust starts to settle. And I was looking for a few
> dollars of old silver coins to ad to it. I went online to check the price -- Somewhere around 16-to-1 ratio
> So I jump on Craig list to see what is for sale,,, Big surprise- Lots of ads looking to buy silver in any quantity.
> ...


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## PrepperLite (May 8, 2013)

budgetprepp-n said:


> Hi,
> I have a small amount of silver put back for when the dust starts to settle. And I was looking for a few
> dollars of old silver coins to ad to it. I went online to check the price -- Somewhere around 16-to-1 ratio
> So I jump on Craig list to see what is for sale,,, Big surprise- Lots of ads looking to buy silver in any quantity.
> ...


I would say supply and demand. Demand may be high but you can go online and buy as much as you want without a problem for a fair price (ie not getting gouged by CL/local market).

If it is very high priced are they selling it? If they are good for them for making a profit off of idiots. Just because you see it at that price and they wont come down on their price doesn't mean they are moving goods. They may be trying to turn a hefty profit or they bought too high and refuse to take a loss. Some people don't understand an item is only worth what someone will give you for it, what the market will bear.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

budgetprepp-n said:


> Hi,
> I have a small amount of silver put back for when the dust starts to settle. And I was looking for a few
> dollars of old silver coins to ad to it. I went online to check the price -- Somewhere around 16-to-1 ratio
> So I jump on Craig list to see what is for sale,,, Big surprise- Lots of ads looking to buy silver in any quantity.
> ...


People like me are your problem.

I collect coins. I am trying to get one of every year and mint mark for every silver coin the US ever minted before 1964. I also have a few rolls of common silver coins if we have a SHEF. You see I am hedging both bets, SHTF and no-SHTF.

You must decide. Do you want to stock up on silver or do you want silver coins. Even junk coins will be higher priced than bars. Collecting silver coins is an expensive hobby.

I started collecting as a child. Stopped for my working life and started back when my wife started giving me silver proof sets for Christmas.


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## StarPD45 (Nov 13, 2012)

Since the dollar is trending downward, silver and gold make a good store of value. (Not talking SHTF here, just what is currently happening financially in this country)
As was said above, this comes after you have whatever preps you feel are necessary.


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## Pir8fan (Nov 16, 2012)

I've been fortunate. I inherited all of my junk silver from my grandmother. It's enough that I've never felt the need to acquire any more.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

My grand father owned a retail store in 64-65 and set aside plenty for my mom and she divided it up for us five kids. That's always been my real SHTF stash but I had to buy more. Still do when I have the money.



Pir8fan said:


> I've been fortunate. I inherited all of my junk silver from my grandmother. It's enough that I've never felt the need to acquire any more.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

I have always said if you don't have your real preps done then do not buy silver, get more water, food, shelter, in that order

But we are fast approaching a time of hyperinflation where a little bit of silver will do you well.

If you can get 100 ounces of silver (I realize this is about $2400 usd) then IF you have a mortgage I would suggest buying it, with that 100 ounces you will soon be able to pay off your house.

Even 10 ounces will go a long way if you have a 120k mortgage

IMO if you have more that 1000 ounces of silver you will very soon be able to have house servants, maid, butler, and a lot of other lower life forms (democrats and global warming advocates)


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## slewfoot (Nov 6, 2013)

dsdmmat said:


> Well the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand. Even though a lot of people want to buy and few want to sell the market is not cornered and they are still producing silver in the mines. So they will pass on what they think is outragous prices and buy from people who are selling around spot prices. Those that want to sell high are SOL because they do not have the market locked up, those who want to buy low have other places to go.


Exactly right.::clapping::


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

This is spot on. I use to recommend we have an ounce of silver for every $1k in debt. Later I upped it to two.



Montana Rancher said:


> I have always said if you don't have your real preps done then do not buy silver, get more water, food, shelter, in that order
> 
> But we are fast approaching a time of hyperinflation where a little bit of silver will do you well.
> 
> ...


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Montana Rancher said:


> But we are fast approaching a time of hyperinflation where a little bit of silver will do you well.


What makes you believe this? (If this question and answer looks like it will turn into hijacking this thread I'll start a new thread.)


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## budgetprepp-n (Apr 7, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> What makes you believe this? (If this question and answer looks like it will turn into hijacking this thread I'll start a new thread.)


 someone give this man a good answer


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## dsdmmat (Nov 9, 2012)

Montana Rancher said:


> Ok for precious metals buying take what you have in excess after getting food and water and all your other assets inline and then buy silver and gold to take your assets out of the "system" into tangibles.
> 
> dsdmmat above has no useful information, so IMO is a government troll, added to my list.


yeah you got me, government troll and all...... sheez he asked aquestion based upon supply and demand and why with a lot of willing buyers and very few sellers why the price was not higher.

Good thing my self esteem is not based upon what some jackass on the internet thinks.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

So with no good answer you reply with sarcasm. With high unemployment and under employment demand will not come from consumers. With China devaluing their currency and committed to full employment, higher prices will not come from imports. With recent droughts; the Obama administration burning food and government food give away programs food prices will likely increase. Taken all together that does not equal hyper-inflation.

So make your case for hyper-inflation and do not call me a government troll. Now I cannot prove a negative so make your case for that. Absent proof you will have made yourself out to be a bald-face liar.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

*Inflate or deflate*

The housing bubble showed us the potential for deflation, but what is bubbling now? Stocks? Maybe. Hyper inflation fears are likely surrounded by the creation of money or the reduced interest in our currency.

1). Our govt just "prints" it at will. We called it quantitative easing. It was $85 billion a month. If there is nothing of value (stocks, mortgages, etc) to put it in then where does it go? To dispose of it people will offer more and more of it to get something else of value.

2) others lose interest in it as a reserve currency or medium of trade requiring it's vast holders to dispose of it quickly. This is likely the greater of the two risks, but fortunately neither would happen over night.

When one or the other starts PMs will do quite well in the start.



PalmettoTree said:


> So with no good answer you reply with sarcasm. With high unemployment and under employment demand will not come from consumers. With China devaluing their currency and committed to full employment, higher prices will not come from imports. With recent droughts; the Obama administration burning food and government food give away programs food prices will likely increase. Taken all together that does not equal hyper-inflation.
> 
> So make your case for hyper-inflation and do not call me a government troll. Now I cannot prove a negative so make your case for that. Absent proof you will have made yourself out to be a bald-face liar.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

The job of money is to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. If the number of people double using a currency and the amount of currency does not increase there will not be enough money to facilitate trade.

I do not know your age but I was taught an increase in the money supply would increase inflation. This was true when I first studied economics but then economic system were relatively constrained by borders.

Today the economy is global and as you said the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency. The things that could change this are not all economic. So as long as the increase of the money supply is matched by increases in use money supply inflation will not occur.

I believe we are in agreement that the accumulation of money is not the path to wealth. But, that has never been the purpose of money. Sure saving money is better than consuming all your money. Using your disposable money to buy things of increasing value or will generate more money is the path to wealth.

Montana Rancher says we are on our way to hyper-inflation. You said you agree. Both of you seem to think there is some rule of thumb for debt vs. silver. I do not follow that logic and have never seen an argument for that in any ratio.

The logic has always been that one should take a high mortgage when future inflation is expected and during that period of inflation pay it back with devalued money over the period of inflation. I have never come across an argument for planing to pay a mortgage with future valuable PMs. PMs would be the last thing you would use in such a case.

Then budget preps-n ask one of you to give a me an answer. I am not sure if that is a challenge to you or what.

The bottom line is no one has made the case for hyper-inflation. Saying maybe someday in the near or later future there might be an economic collapse is proof of nothing. It is certainly not good financial advice. 

If you want to stack up PMs. I do also. If you say you think at some time in the future Thayer will increase in value; I hope so too. If you say without a doubt PMs will function like money; I'm not so sure.

My question is right back to you, what if they don't? This strategy of, put all your eggs in the PM basket, is foolish.

What about the guy that started in Sept of 2010 and purchased an equal amount every month until today and now needs to cash out. His losses will be crushing. What if that money is for medical treatment for his child? The only thing the poor man can say is thank God I didn't buy gold.

PMs are commodities or collectibles they go up and down and are not reliably.

So I am still waiting for some one as budget prep-n put it, "someone give the man a good answer." And dsdmmat I'm still waiting for your proof.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> The job of money is to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. If the number of people double using a currency and the amount of currency does not increase there will not be enough money to facilitate trade.
> 
> I do not know your age but I was taught an increase in the money supply would increase inflation. This was true when I first studied economics but then economic system were relatively constrained by borders.
> 
> ...


There is a lot of questions and information in your post, so I am going to take it in the order it was presented.
Inflation is caused by more money - the more people who have it causes demand for the goods to increase and this causes prices to rise. Prices rise so incomes must rise to keep up - that is inflation. If you want a real example of this look at what one ounce of gold is worth compared to the twenty dollars it was worth in the late 1800s. Look at the cost of bread compared to what it cost in the 1950s. More money available (disposable income) means inflation will rise. With all the money that is circulated in the global economy if the foreign markets continue to dump the dollar then our economy has to absorb that money - it will inflate the cost of goods dramatically - hyper-inflation will occur.

Since the property "value" increases at the same rate as inflation your "paying off a high mortgage with inflated dollars is a wash. (except that in a 30 year mortgage you pay for the property three times over due to interest.) Even when you include the tax write-off for your mortgage you only save about 20-30% of the total cost to you. That is a net LOSS of 70% of the extra 200 % that you actually pay. You still pay 2.4 times the original value of your home or property.

It is logical to say that when the dollar is no longer the default world currency (there are a number of large nations already dumping the dollar) then all that currency will be dumped back into the USA. With all that currency and very little production the only result will be hyper-inflation.

Can you argue these points logically?


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Remember that value and price are not synonymous. The value of something rarely changes aside from collectables. The price changes almost constantly. Gold has the same value that it has always had - so does silver, platinum, copper and lead. The prices continue to climb due in most part to inflation. The metals market not withstanding the actual value of everything remains constant.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Lots of questions,

Let me take up the point of holding silver to balance a debt since I have done that in my life. The only debt I have today is on a piece of land we recently purchased and since the debt is about 10% of the value of my lands holdings it does not scare me like the time I bought a new home for $325,000 and put $65k down. When I did that I wanted too and did get my silver holdings up to about 400oz. I figured if we "inflated" significantly and my income didn't keep up with the inflation I'd have the silver to sell and pay off my mortgage. I don't see where that is a silly thought at all. Rarely do income rates keep up with inflation. I believe "ratios" would show they (wages, earnings, etc) almost always trail inflation? Am I wrong in that?

I liked your argument and suggestion that the elimination of borders in monetary policy calls for an expansion of US Dollars since so many countries use the dollar as a world currency. That appears to be a very valid argument. It would mean we can increase our money supply with out causing significant inflation - until we bubble it or go too far. How far is too far - I have no idea. I would be more concerned about a "Russia" getting tired of the US antics and deciding to do business in something other than dollars. If they had enough pull and got a major trade partner like China on board we'd be in pretty bad shape. What happens to a currency when it "suddenly' stops being the world's reserve currency? What would stop the UN (Russia, China with a George Soros) form creating the "Green Back" and forcing it on to the world stage? Fortunately we'd all see that coming, but it could happen over a period of a year or two. Then what of all the dollars? If they aren't worth very much isn't hyper inflation a reality? You asked how could hyper inflation occur? I hope you can see that answer?

I don't think we'll have an economic collapse this year or next. It might not happen for 5 years. It may not happen in my life time, but one thing is historically true - no fiat currency has ever survived indefinitely.



PalmettoTree said:


> The job of money is to facilitate the exchange of goods and services. If the number of people double using a currency and the amount of currency does not increase there will not be enough money to facilitate trade.
> 
> I do not know your age but I was taught an increase in the money supply would increase inflation. This was true when I first studied economics but then economic system were relatively constrained by borders.
> 
> ...


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

There are many hypotheticals no one can offer an answer to everyone individuals can imagin. The problem with asking so many questions is you get too many answers then my time gets short but I'll get back when I can. One thing that needs to be put aside is this foolishness is that gold and silver is special. They are commodities they vary like commodities. The fact that so many people bought into the idea that they have a constant value has been disproven by the fact that huge numbers of buyers are underwater on everything purchased since mid-2010. Gold and silver react just like all non-agricultural commodities.

If you got taken in I am sorry. I understand your needs to hang on to the delusion but you were sold an allusion. My proof is I am not underwater because I see PMs for what they are.

That is my opinion you can have your opinion and those with an open mind can judge for yourselves. More later on the other comments.


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## dsdmmat (Nov 9, 2012)

Palmetto Tree, I am at a loss here, proof of what? That the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand?

The silver market has not been cornered by anyone yet. A lot of people willing to buy and only a few sellers willing to sell would normally cause the price of an item to rise. But in this case where the OP was looking: If the sellers are not selling because the buyers wont buy at their price then it is a true statement that the buyer gets a vote in supply and demand. 

If that is not what you were asking then I am still at a loss.


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## dsdmmat (Nov 9, 2012)

budgetprepp-n said:


> So the supply is there,,,,You just don't see it?


You may not see it locally like on Craig's list but there are other avenues to buy it through. A google search turned up hundreds of hits and the few that I looked at for coins were priced 16 to 1 like you stated in the first post. So the supply is there, you just may have to buy a lot of it to get the good prices. That could be the reason there are a few sellers charging higher prices, and a lot of people willing to buy. They buy in bulk then cut it into smaller quantities and sell it at higher prices. Another avenue you may want to try is splitting a bag of silver coins with other people, that way you can get the good price 16 to 1 and still only buy what you want. Of course the other reason there may be a lot of people willing to buy is to resell for profit.

I am sure you saw nwmint's price when you searched, it looks like their minimum order 50.00 face value is runing around 18 to 1. Their 1000 face value bag is 16,180 which works out to 16.2 to 1 or about $22 and change per ounce. if you look around their site they also buy coins but at 14 to 1.

Individual sellers are usually going to be higher verses the large volume sellers .

When my wife and I were in the bakery business we were selling donuts for .55 cents each and we always sold out before 9 so the crowd of people who came in at 10 were SOL. since I worked another job and I was the donut maker I only made what I though we would sell out of each day. We started raising the price on donuts until we could have some for our 10 oclock customers and still sell them out. We ended up at a selling price of 95 cents each. Supply and demand has a price point called what the market will bear.

In business: The people who sell a lot of product can afford to raise their prices which slows down demand. The people that do not sell a lot have to maintain or lower their prices to move product and still survive.

Silver like any other comodity is all about what they buyer is willing to shell out for it. Like .22 ammo it is still there (big box stores are still receiving shipments) but you either have to hunt it down yourself to get a good price or you pay the guys who have been hunting it down. You will either figure out a way to get the best deal or you will pay the price that those who have figured it out want for it. But you still get a vote.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

PaulS your example of gold in 1800 and today is apples and oranges. There was limited global trade but that was based on local demand. Global trade was more of a barter system with nationalized money limited to borders.

We all agree on the price of bread in the 1950s vs today and that 65 year inflation rate that is demand inflation not monetary inflation. The constant push for higher wages results in a constant push in demand followed by price push. We all agree part of both wages and prices from 1950s to today is also monetary inflation. This is only because if the money supply had not been increased there would not be enough money in circulation to facilitate trade.

Your last statement in paragraph one is just not true. The entire reason QE has not caused hyper-inflation is the net effect of foreign use of US dollars is increasing not decreasing or as you said "dumping." 

You are correct if US dollar confidence declined relative to other major currencies hyper-inflation would occur. But it has not and we are not having hyper-inflation.

Out of time again. Will address more later.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

If you had an account with $1,000,000 US Dollars in it and 1914 what would it buy you today vs then?

If you had the equivalent of $1,000,000 US Dollars in gold or silver in 1914 and managed to not have it confiscated what would it be worth today.

The numbers I heard were this:

Dollars would buy $20,000 worth of goods and services today as in 1914
Gold would buy $62 million dollars worth of goods or services today as in 1914

Maybe that's not "hyper" being a 100 years but its sure inflation.



PalmettoTree said:


> PaulS your example of gold in 1800 and today is apples and oranges. There was limited global trade but that was based on local demand. Global trade was more of a barter system with nationalized money limited to borders.
> 
> We all agree on the price of bread in the 1950s vs today and that 65 year inflation rate that is demand inflation not monetary inflation. The constant push for higher wages results in a constant push in demand followed by price push. We all agree part of both wages and prices from 1950s to today is also monetary inflation. This is only because if the money supply had not been increased there would not be enough money in circulation to facilitate trade.
> 
> ...


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## nephilim (Jan 20, 2014)

Ripon said:


> If you had an account with $1,000,000 US Dollars in it and 1914 what would it buy you today vs then?
> 
> If you had the equivalent of $1,000,000 US Dollars in gold or silver in 1914 and managed to not have it confiscated what would it be worth today.
> 
> ...


I'd invest it in Coca Cola, MS and Apple as and when..a $10 share from coca cola in 1940s is worth around $200million now. An $800 share in apple from 1970s is worth around $56million now and a $200 share in MS from the 1980s is worth $1.2billion.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I understand, but what if you bought Eastern Airlines in 1984 (thanks Dad - NOT)



nephilim said:


> I'd invest it in Coca Cola, MS and Apple as and when..a $10 share from coca cola in 1940s is worth around $200million now. An $800 share in apple from 1970s is worth around $56million now and a $200 share in MS from the 1980s is worth $1.2billion.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Montana Rancher said:


> But we are fast approaching a time of hyperinflation where a little bit of silver will do you well.


This is the statement that is the basis for this discussion. The twist and turns over the last hundred years does not equal hyper-inflation.

There is no doubt a dollar or a million dollars do not buy what they did in 1914. Becoming a millionaire is much more within reach of the average person. The lifestyle a million dollars buys today is much higher than that of the 1914 millionaire.

As for any amount of PMs they offer nothing until you sell part or all. A million in other investments can hold their value even increase plus provide what I think is a darn good living. This is especially true for retirement what SS is added to the income generated.


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