# badboy on sun



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

anyone following the return of the big bad boy on the Sun
AR2192: Giant Sunspot Returns, Bigger And Badder Than Ever

at the end of October about 2 weeks ago it caused 2 power outages but its back and better not big chance of you know world ending in p but you know it's a good educational thing to check this guy out


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

I usually check out spaceweather.com daily.


----------



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

do you think we're going to see a cme this time around


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Last time around we were hit by a couple cme's. Fortunately they were not very strong - m class I think. So far 2192 sounds like a lot of m class not x class flares. Who knows?


----------



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Thanks for that website, ma'am.
According to them, we have little to worry about.
The fears that the spot has grown don't seem to be holding up.

While Will's linked article says it's grown, spaceweather said the following:


> *OLD SUNSPOT RETURNS: *Late last month, the biggest sunspot in nearly 25 years crossed the face of the sun, blasting Earth's upper atmosphere with dozens of solar flares. Today, AR2192 returned, and it is just a shadow of its former self. Karzaman Ahmad of the Langkawi National Observatory in Malaysia photographed the old sunspot emerging over the sun's southeastern limb on Nov. 13th:
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hopefully, we have little to worry about this time around.


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Just keep in mind the guys doing the forecasting are probably as "good" as our earth forecasters. Lot of guessing I think.


----------



## Sharkbait (Feb 9, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Just keep in mind the guys doing the forecasting are probably as "good" as our earth forecasters. Lot of guessing I think.


That's along the same lines of what I was thinking.Even small sunspots can blow out huge cme's.All boils down to a matter of how big the ejection is and where it's pointed at that time to really know if there is a concern or not.


----------



## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

The number and size of sunspots on the Sun has considerable effect upon levels of the sun's emitted radiation. The higher the levels of radiation received from the Sun, the greater the levels of ionization, which generally this brings better propagation conditions for HF radio communications.


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Supposedly we will have some lead time but I don't know how much. How long for say an x-class cme to hit earth?


----------



## Sharkbait (Feb 9, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Supposedly we will have some lead time but I don't know how much. How long for say an x-class cme to hit earth?


Found this on NASA

HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE A CME TO REACH THE EARTH?

The average distance from the Sun to the Earth is 150 million kilometers which can be written as 150 x 10^6 Km.

CME's can vary in speed. They can range from 200 km/s to 1000 km/s, although typically, most of them travel at about 424 km/s (Avg 1996-1998 speed St. Cyr et al., 2000).

Assuming that CME's don't accelerate or decelerate on their way from the Sun to the Earth, we can easily compute from the numbers given, the minimum travel time, the maximum travel time, as well as the average travel time.

time=distance/speed

So, the average time it would take a CME to get to the Earth is 98 hrs. At 1000 km/s, a CME would take 42 hrs, and at 200 km/s, a CME would take 208 hrs.

Check out these web sites for more on CME's:
Coronal Mass Ejections & Their Effect on the Earth - A Student Activity
(A student activity: track CME's as they head towards Earth)
LASCO CME List
(SOHO/LASCO list of all CME's observed since SOHO launch)


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Now the big question - IF a CME of substantial size were heading for earth would the government tell us?


----------



## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

I hope they would! Another question is if they decide not announce it, would they censor the space weather sites from letting the public know? An announcement like that could cause a massive panic...


----------



## Prepadoodle (May 28, 2013)

The one that hit us in 1859 took less than 18 hours to get here.

_The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 93 million mile journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME was made possible by a prior CME, that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event. ("Bracing the Satellite Infrastructure for a Solar Superstorm", Scientific American, July, 2008)_


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Prepadoodle said:


> The one that hit us in 1859 took less than 18 hours to get here.
> 
> _The flare was associated with a major coronal mass ejection (CME) that traveled directly toward Earth, taking 17.6 hours to make the 93 million mile journey. It is believed that the relatively high speed of this CME was made possible by a prior CME, that "cleared the way" of ambient solar wind plasma for the Carrington event. ("Bracing the Satellite Infrastructure for a Solar Superstorm", Scientific American, July, 2008)_


Still eighteen hours would give people time to get home or start home, get supplies, get family together, etc. The sheeple wouldn't do anything but wait for the government to help out.


----------



## Kahlan (Sep 16, 2014)

MrsInor said:


> Now the big question - IF a CME of substantial size were heading for earth would the government tell us?


I don't believe they will. I think they will keep us in the dark until the last possible second.



Arklatex said:


> I hope they would! Another question is if they decide not announce it, would they censor the space weather sites from letting the public know? An announcement like that could cause a massive panic...


I truly believe they will censor.

I hope I am wrong but I just don't believe they will tell us and I think they will do everything in their power to keep us in the dark.


----------



## MrsInor (Apr 15, 2013)

Sheesh Kahlan - one might think you don't trust the government.


----------



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Kahlan said:


> I don't believe they will. I think they will keep us in the dark until the last possible second.


That second immediately proceeded by continued darkness as the CME arrives.
:mrgreen:


----------



## Boss Dog (Feb 8, 2013)

Barry = "Where in hell was that CME on November 4th, I needed it"!?


----------



## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

I can just hear Obama's announcement. "My fellow American's, I just read in the newspaper that a large sun sp..."
But even if he did announce it, would you believe him???

Could you imagine the run on the super markets and Best Buy and Walmart?


----------



## 1skrewsloose (Jun 3, 2013)

MrsInor said:


> Now the big question - IF a CME of substantial size were heading for earth would the government tell us?


That's why we prep! The gov keeps way to many secrets just to not create panic. jmho. I do realize you folks are waaaay ahead of me in prepping. Just to the gov, what we don't know, it will be too late to care.


----------



## cdell (Feb 27, 2014)

paraquack said:


> I can just hear Obama's announcement. "My fellow American's, I just read in the newspaper that a large sun sp..."
> But even if he did announce it, would you believe him???
> 
> Could you imagine the run on the super markets and Best Buy and Walmart?


Lol, the thought of people looting best buy for burned up iphones and big screens makes me smile. But then I shudder at the thought that all those people will be hungry (probably from working up a sweat stealing a 60" flatscreen) and looking for a free meal.


----------



## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

I'm not recommending this, mind you...

But if an EMP or solar flare knocks out all electronics, setting up at 200yds from a Best Buy entrance will yield some great target practice, and you'll be helping yourself in the long run by eliminating idiots.


----------



## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

I've got a lot of ammo but I don't know if I got that much.


----------



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

It?s baaack! Giant sunspot returns - National | Globalnews.ca
It?s baaack! Giant sunspot returns - National | Globalnews.ca

just a correction to last time there were some flares x and m but no cme. This time there is a higher chance about 5% of is she at me which is much worse than a flare the flares alone last time cause 2 major blackouts see substantial cme would be much much worse


----------



## Kahlan (Sep 16, 2014)

Will said:


> It?s baaack! Giant sunspot returns - National | Globalnews.ca
> It?s baaack! Giant sunspot returns - National | Globalnews.ca
> 
> just a crack to last time there were some flares awful text them to type but this time around the there could be a c_m_e more likely I turned in katy of a sense but hut there were no seans last time but there were couple blocks it's cuz but this solar flares
> ...


I'm so confused. :-?


----------



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

just read article


----------



## Kahlan (Sep 16, 2014)

Will said:


> just read article


I did lol... <3


----------



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

you might want to check out this video too
GIANT SUNSPOT 2209/X FLARE WATCH.:


----------



## Kahlan (Sep 16, 2014)

Well gee thanks Will, that should give me great dreams tonight.... NOT! Cool video though, thanks for sharing it.


----------



## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Because 2209 has been "working" for so long and has continued to dominate the region it is more likely to produce CMEs than it was the last time it was "earth facing".

It still requires a very close hit to do much damage and the odds are in our favor - but it could set one off that would intersect with the Earth's position the 2 - 7 days after the event. If you watch space weather - and you should check it daily - you will have time to disconnect your home from the grid before it hits. 

Also - none of your appliances or electronics will be damaged unless they are connected to the grid and get a big spike from the grid. CMEs and solar flares don't produce the E1 pulse that destroy electronics - that only happens with high altitude nuclear detonations - 40 or more miles in altitude. Satelites are destroyed by the direct effect of partical bombardment, not from EMPs.


----------

