# nCoV again



## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Well, it appears Saudi Arabia was a bit less than honest. Surprise, surprise.

There has been a slight resurgence in Novel Coronavirus in the Middle East with 13 cases reported in May in Saudi.

I'm watching this. A woman who returned to France from the United Arab Emirates also had it and got sick in France. I also saw a case in Germany, same thing, person traveled to the Middle East.

This is a bad virus. If this IS going human to human, depending on how well it transmits, we could be looking at a nasty epidemic, but, so far, it hasn't convinced me of anything.

H7N9? We are not getting accurate stats. It's going to be with us in one form or another for a long time. H5N1 is resurging in some areas where it is seen the most, Laos, Cambodia etc. It's also very dangerous.

On the IngaLisa scale of alert.  I would say we are a Green. Blue-Green-Yellow-Orange-Red. Red being get your but in the bunker and load the cannons.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Thanks for the updates.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

A bit clearer update. It was a male, not a female, age 65, who went to Dubai on a 'package sightseeing tour'. He would not have had much contact with people there, no animal contact. Sounds like an incidental contact case. Upon returning to France, he became ill. This kind of case, raises the level of concern a bit.

Novel Coronavirus, or nCoV, is a SARS like disease. It spreads like the common cold, but so far, has been less contagious than a common cold, which is good. It has a high mortality rate and those that do survive, like H7N9 require extensive medical care.

Please excuse the errors, because the reports often come to me via a 'machine translator', and things don't often translate well from language to language, and often times, they are very unclear at first.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

The level of concern may be rising on nCoV. The 65 year old man was apparently hospitalized in a room with a roommate. That roommate is apparently now ill with symptoms that resemble nCoV, AND the doctor that treated the 65 year old man is also hospitalized with similar symptoms. We won't know the test results for a while. If they should be nCoV, that would indicate some pretty substantial human to human spread. I will keep you posted. My thoughts are, if it is nCoV and it spread this fast in France, I can't imagine that it isn't running rampant in the many secretive kingdoms of the Middle East, some of them, rife with poverty.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

40 worldwide cases have been recorded, with 20 deaths. It was announced today that 2 health care workers in Saudi Arabia were the latest victims. This announcement certainly confirms human to human spread, without prolonged contact.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

News from Saudi has been very difficult to get. It's my belief based on past patterns and emerging trends, that this continues to spread, and has gone to human to human. There is some panic in Saudi Arabia. A 10 year old has recently died from the disease. It is hitting some health care workers. Saudi Arabia is not likely to be very transparent with the data. It's been relatively silent since 5/12. I imagine they will release some data here and there, and I can't say that I trust it will be accurate.

There is also some confusion as to what this disease is called. Middle East Respiratory Syndrome is one name. SARS like illness is another. I wish they had stuck with a name like Coronavirus and a number, because this just makes it all the more confusing.

This virus has developed human to human, unlike H7N9 avian flu, which didn't really show us it had that capacity. H7N9 IS in the position to develop H2H transmission over time, as is H5N1. All THREE of these diseases present a pandemic potential. All THREE have a high case fatality rate and require a good deal of care to survive. With nCoV, there will be no vaccine because coronavirus doesn't lend itself to vaccine. Avian flu vaccine could be developed but H7 vaccine attempts in the past have failed in humans. H5N1 vaccine would not be available in amounts great enough to mitigate a pandemic.

Keep in mind, an isolation plan in your prep planning.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

I know that many of the Health Care workers in Saudi Arabia are foreign nationals Americans,Brits, etc. who have generous PTO packages where they leave the Kingdom any word on spread from these?


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## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

Not a bad time to make sure you have a supply of Antibiotics. Remember the Anthrax scare wiped out the supply of Ciprofloxacin (Cipro).


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I have gotten very little news. I know 2 health care workers caught it. I know a 10 year old child died from it. My sources have gotten no word since 5/12. Also China deleted the account of one blogger who was tweeting on H7N9. These are not transparent countries.

Consider, 2 million will travel to Saudi Arabia over Ramadan. July 8th. You may want to avoid airports.

nCoV will not respond to antibiotics. It's a coronavirus. Yes, you can use the antibiotics for secondary infection, but, the coronavirus on its own, is fatal 50% of the time at this point, even with extreme health care measures. I DO recommend the full spectrum of antibiotics for preppers. Also consider buying a hard copy of a PDR. Also consider having pediatric doses on hand.

You must isolate to insure that you do not catch this if and when it bolts.


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## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

If SHTF drugs like antibiotics may just be the ultimate barter item. How much would someone be willing to give up for some antibiotics if a family member or yourself became sick.


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## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

I keep reading mixed reports.some say its confirmed that its spreading human to human others say it might spread.i feel like they're not telling us the whole truth.


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## Tripper52 (Dec 8, 2012)

rickkyw1720pf said:


> If SHTF drugs like antibiotics may just be the ultimate barter item. How much would someone be willing to give up for some antibiotics if a family member or yourself became sick.


Last time I checked, anti-biotics dont work against viruses....


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Antibiotic will NOT work against any influenza, avian influenza, or coronavirus. Period.

They will work to prevent secondary bacterial pneumonia, but, given the cytokine storm these viruses produce, that will do you little good. It's a long shot. If I had a sick family member, being cared for in total isolation, I would give them antibiotics if I had them, depending on symptoms.

nCoV IS DEFINITELY circulating human to human. H7N9 and H5N1 have yet proven to be human to human. We don't have data because SA hasn't been forthcoming regarding nCoV and the trickle we were getting has stopped. They are a secretive kingdom.

Our sources regarding Saudi Arabia are mum. What we are getting out of machine translated reports are that there is concern and some panic in the populace, which to me, means folks are getting sick and they are not getting answers from their government. I saw a notice on 'mortuary practices regarding nCoV. We have seen notices of school events being cancelled. These are governments that are capable of shutting down the internet and twitter services. Unlike China, where we got some leaks, there is nothing here. Keep in mind ten Chinese bloggers went to prison for blogging about H7N9. There are also attempt to crash my source's site daily. It goes down often.

You have to understand that businesses are rushing to get 'patents' for these viruses. There it money in patenting DNA. There is huge money to be made or lost in vaccine manufacture as well.

***nCoV will NOT have a vaccine. It's a coronavirus. We can NOT make a vaccine that will work.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
I can't say right now, what antivirals will work, but likely, we have none.
Current CFR is at 50%

**H7N9will NOT have a vaccine. H7 vaccines have been attempted in man and failed to get a human immune response.
Antibiotics will NOT work.
Thus far it does respond to Tamiflu and Relenza, but that doesn't mean if you get these drugs you are home free. You may have a chance.
Current CFR is at 30+%

*H5N1DOES have a vaccine, but the vaccine requires a large dose of the drug and it takes 2 doses set apart. We do not and can not make enough to mitigate a pandemic.
Thus far, it responds to Tamiflu and Relenza.
Current CFR is similar to H7N9 at roughly 30+%

I think, it is reasonable to have some antibiotics in your prep supplies. Veterinary antibiotics of certain types will do. I have them. I am also a knowledgeable health care professional. If you don't know what you are doing, they won't help you and could do more harm than good. If you don't have a medical person, such as a registered nurse, pharmacist or doctor in your circle, I suggest thinking about networking. 

I strongly suggest having a hard copy professional drug book such as a PDR. The net could go down, then what? You need hard copy books.

There is NOTHING that would stop a devastating pandemic if either of these 3 viruses decides to bolt. nCoV has made the jump to human to human. Two nurses in Saudi caught it from a patient. A hospital room mate of a patient infected with nCoV in France got it. The first cluster in Britain brought it home to 3 of his family members. There are other clusters.

With H7N9 it is less certain, but, it is poised to become human to human. It has more genes directing it that way then does H5N1. That said, some dope in China crossed H5N1 with H1N1 making a hybrid flu that is supposedly locked up in the lab. (Like I feel safe about this. It is also here in the US locked up.) H5N1 on it's own is bad. H1N1 has been the worst flu to strike in 50 years.....why you would cross the two is beyond me. Any of these flus can share DNA, in nature and that is scary enough.

So, don't stockpile antibiotics to try to treat ANY of these diseases. If you feel you want some around (and I do) then get a reasonable selection of antibiotics that target a variety infections. Keep in mind, every antibiotic will not cure every bacterial infection. You have to have some idea of what you are treating. In a primitive world this will hinge on what medical knowledge you have. There are aerobic, anaerobic, gram positive, gram negative bacteria. You can't combine some antibiotics either. They can be toxic to the liver, to the kidneys and to the nervous system. They can produce Clostridium Difficile in your gut and that can kill you over time. Some antibiotics cause cardiac arrhythmias. Don't go relying on just swallowing a bottle of this. You need a knowledgeable medical person or you can get yourself sick.

What can take out a prepper is: bad skin infections likely from injuries, tooth abscess, bladder infections that go up to the kidney, pneumonias, uterine infections after childbirth. Anything less obvious, we won't have the ability to diagnose because we won't have laboratories or imaging. We will have thermometers.

You won't be eating these precious resources for ear infections or sinus infections. There will also be fungal infections, which are far more difficult to treat.

I also suggest adding lice treatment to your supplies. You can buy that at a store. I also have a very nasty bed bug killer, which I have never used because it's toxic, but, if things get really bad and you are being eaten alive, you may consider fumigating your bed and couch.

I suggest keeping ketoconazole shampoo, in case you get skin fungal infection you can use this to wash your body in. Also get fungal treatments for skin and nails. Miconazole for women for yeast. (Also works for men for general fungal.) After you use antibiotics, you are likely to get fungal. 

It would not be a bad idea to keep pro-biotics around to repopulate your intestinal flora.

Unless you plan on having new little ones during this siege, it may pay to have condoms on hand too. I'm beyond that phase in my life, but, I have a lot of feisty young people, in my circle. I doubt that they are thinking about contraception in a crisis right now. My nightmare is a problem obstetrical case. Historically 1 out of 100 childbirths caused a maternal death. Historically 1 out of 5 births did not survive the first year. Antibiotics and immunization has mitigated this. Currently 25%-30% of births are via C-section, likely many of those unnecessary, but it's a scary thought.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Throughout the 5 million years of human existence, we've survived every kind of virus and bacteria epidemic that Mother Nature's thrown at us, so our message to her is- "We've always ran the show on this planet and you'll have to come up with something mighty special to take us down!"
This cliff face at Cattedown in Plymouth is a mile across the water from where I live and was home to cavemen-










They call him and his mates 'Cattedown Man', boy they must have been tough to go up against T. Rex and come out on top, they make even Predator look pretty-


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Yes, but human existence is but a blip in a universe that measures time in eons. Our planet has never had 7+ billion souls on it, either, moving rapidly about the globe.

No, a virus will likely not kill us all, but either of these three could thin the planet significantly.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

To have dramatic effect it would not need to be thinning the herd that much. Most food is grown in one area and shipped to another. Quarantines could disrupt our food distribution network and economy. Think Rome the bubonic plague and malarial epidemics were not her only problems but they sure made her more susceptible to invasion economic collapse etc.


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## Meangreen (Dec 6, 2012)

rickkyw1720pf said:


> If SHTF drugs like antibiotics may just be the ultimate barter item. How much would someone be willing to give up for some antibiotics if a family member or yourself became sick.


Check out Ebay for antibiotics


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Well, for those of you who may be planning a pilgrimage to the Middle East for Ramadan (July 8-Aug 7) or the Haj in October, you may want to reconsider. I am sure many of you have this on your agenda. (snark).

From the dribs and drabs of info I am getting, nCoV is spreading. Saudi Arabia is not a member of WHO. WHO says nCoV is spreading and the Saudis need to get a handle on it. The Saudis have said they have no intention of limiting travel. Plus there was a dispute over who got the virus samples to study, because, DNA is apparently able to be 'owned' and therefore the profits from such a discovery. The 'sleeper' nCoV appears to be a bit more social than we expected. It's not spreading as fast as the common cold (yet) and likely it won't, but, it's definitely going human to human, and evidently without prolonged contact.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Something ODD is going on in Alabama. I can't tell you much.

SEVEN people have been hospitalized with an upper respiratory illness and 2 have died, 1 is in intensive care. They span all ages. They are not related. They live in a 10 county area in SE AL. Several had a 'flu like illness' prior or concomitantly.

At this point, there is NO connection to nCoV or any avian flu that I know of, but, I don't know much. I don't think any one knows much but I am sure the CDC is on it. I don't know the travel history of these people. It could be a resurgence of H1N1? It could be something all together different.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

One patient that died, was positive for H1N1 the 2009 pandemic strain. (Yes it is still around and killing people.) Another death has no information available. I am not sure if testing for influenza or coronavirus was done. A third patient still alive, has a strain of seasonal influenza A H3, more specifics are not known. 7 total were hospitalized in the last month, 2 died, 1 remains in intensive care. It's totally possible that these are people with co-morbid conditions.

It appears this is a blip, a fluke type occurrence of unrelated influenza type disease, but the CDC is watching it.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Back to novel coronavirus. I posted an update on some of the other threads on viruses. This is one to watch, especially as we go into the Fall. It's a slow spreader for now, but, it bears watching. It's human to human transmission. The man who got it in Saudi and came home to France, gave it to his hospital room mate. There are several other clusters where health professionals got it from patients.

Millions of pilgrims will descend on Saudi from July to October, and return home to points all over the globe, as of now, no travel advisories are in effect, other than the one the Russians put out. Russia is advising its citizens to avoid travel to the Arabian Peninsula except when absolutely essential.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Here is an example of my dilemma when reporting on this stuff. Today a report came in that Jordan sent off 124 samples for testing for nCoV because they SUSPECT that these could be cases of nCoV. Many times, we never receive a follow up on this information. It could take weeks to get more information. If Jordan truly does have 124 cases of nCoV, it's not good.

Keep in mind a lot of people keel over in many of these countries without ever seeing a doctor. There are refugee camps all over the Middle East. We have numerous countries in total disarray, Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq. Keep in mind we have troops in Afghanistan and Iraq. We have very secretive regimes, Iran, Saudi. We have poverty stricken places like Yemen. Egypt is still a mess. Jordan is trying to deal with refugees. Think of the number of Palestinians who have no real home. Who keeps track of them? Lebanon isn't in good shape either. So, if a pandemic hits there, there just isn't the infrastructure in terms of government to control it.

Again, I don't think that nCoV will have as high of a case fatality rate as it does right now, because we are not hearing about those that have a hell of a 'cold' for 3 weeks and recover (I am sure that happens.)

If you gave me a choice which germ, nCoV or H7N9 to pick as a worse scenario, H7N9 is the worse scenario, because it infects at least birds, with no symptoms. If it got into the wild bird population across the globe, AND also did human to human, it would be very, very bad. We have had little success making H7 vaccines that work on humans. That said, nCoV is CURRENTLY transmissible human to human, and can develop into an even better spreader, spreading much like a common cold. We haven't had any luck with vaccines against coronavirus. :/

There are many emerging diseases, that are flaring at all times all over the world. H5N1 has claimed many more lives than either of the two we are watching closely. So far, it seems to be only avian to human. So far. 

I'm trying to pass on credible information. I know some people spend their last dime on prepping. I don't want to predict Armageddon. I'm not Nostradamus. I just watch trends and I know a bit about disease.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I think it would be good if the admin could combine my threads on the novel corona virus and H7N9 into one area or something. I never know which one to post in.

So, there is news on nCoV, Novel Coronavirus otherwise known as MERS or Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome.

A 45 year old man in Italy has been diagnosed. He was recently in Jordan for a month, where he says his son had a 'flu like illness.'

Also, the Saudis are saying, that nCoV is ALL over the world, and the only reason it isn't being discovered it, that only the Saudis are testing. That actually may be somewhat true. If you went to the ER with flu like symptoms, I doubt you or I would be tested. If you told them you traveled then maybe they would test you.

Two years ago, I went to the ER with pneumonia. I KNEW I had pneumonia. They took an xray and I had infiltrates in my lungs, but they didn't think it looked like pneumonia. They gave me a pack of zith, and two days later, I still had a fever and couldn't breathe. I went back and they told me it wasn't pneumonia, but they gave me Keflex this time, and that worked. So, I had to go back and get a chest xray to make sure I was OK. So two weeks later I went back and the infiltrates were gone......and so was my 'pneumonia'. The message on my answering machine said, your 'pneumonia has resolved'..... "But wait! I thought it wasn't pneumonia?" They told me, "What does it matter, you are better now?"

So how many people worldwide go in to the ER with something, that never gets diagnosed? How many die on the streets because they are old and poor, or young and poor and don't matter to any one? I suspect that nCoV is all over the place too. I suspect a lot of people DO survive it, but, had a hell of bad cold for 3 weeks and maybe wished they were dead. I suspect a lot of others are diagnosed with pneumonia or some other generic disease. On the upside, if there is more of it around than we think, it means that the case fatality rate is lower. On the downside, it is mutating. If you happen to have any chronic disease or immune suppression due to taking chemo or drugs for diseases like asthma, Lupus, etc. nCoV could be your death knell. Maybe if you are a young adult, it may not hit you as hard. I don't know. We just don't know enough about this bug.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Thanks for the up dates.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

So, the Italian guy (of Palestinian descent), who went to Jordan to visit his son, and came back with nCoV, also gave it to his 2 year old niece and to a coworker. So the Italian cluster is now up to 3. I would say, this stuff has a way of getting around pretty well. I am wondering if they are tracking down the people who rode on the airplane with the guy.

Also, the infected coworker is a fellow hotel employee....so both of the infected men are hotel employees. It didn't say what their occupation was, only that they worked in a hotel, so any guests could have been exposed and long gone by now....on airplanes, buses, boats, whatever. 

There is some arrogant doctor on a Reuter's news video saying that people get this from animals and that there has been no human to human transmission. Yeah, right. 

The deal on this germ as far as I can see, is this. It spreads human to human. It probably takes more contact than a quick one time encounter, but, I would think sharing an airplane, bus, or train car for several hours would qualify for close contact and thereby increase the chances of catching this more than just having some one with it pass by on the sidewalk.

I think some of nCoV is flying under the radar, unless the person gets extremely ill.

I think the case mortality rate won't be as high at 50-60% but, if you have pre-existing disease, are under 3 or over 50, you have a higher risk of dying if you get it. It isn't treatable with antivirals or antibiotics. I am not sure if they are using IVIG or interferons or what. I think most of the care is supportive care. It requires ventilators and ECMO.

It may be just my perception, but, from what I am picking up from reading a variety of reports, it seems to me, it is a bit more transmissible than first thought. It has a longer incubation than first thought. It would seem advisable to me, to err on the side of caution and maybe do as Russia did and limit travel to only essential travel to the Middle East.....just sayin'.....


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Thanks for the update.

If it were to be "really bad" and "pandemic" like I wonder how long the governments of the world will see fit to lie about it?
I mean I get it - if they didn't lie about it they'd probably cause a great harm with the panic attack many would go thru,
but its something I wonder about.


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## SAR-1L (Mar 13, 2013)

IngaLisa said:


> What can take out a prepper is: bad skin infections likely from injuries, tooth abscess, bladder infections that go up to the kidney, pneumonias, uterine infections after childbirth. Anything less obvious, we won't have the ability to diagnose because we won't have laboratories or imaging. We will have thermometers.
> 
> You won't be eating these precious resources for ear infections or sinus infections. There will also be fungal infections, which are far more difficult to treat.
> 
> ...


So medical issues is one of the top concerns in my book. When you mentioned tooth abscess **** it brought back some terrible memories. A few years back when I was in a crappy relationship, and everything felt like crap, I let myself tank. I drank 6 or 7 cans of soda a day, I was fat as shit, and etc etc... ugh. Even after changing all these things, and doing all I am supposed to it has cost me several thousands to fix my teeth after the acid from the soda ate way the enamel and caused cavities. Most of them were all small and such and they are all taken care of now thankfully. But I had one of my wisdom teeth abscess. I have been shot, I have been stabbed, and given the choice between the three, shoot me or stab me please before ever subjecting me to the incredible terrible pain of a severe abscess. It will bring you to your knees, and put you in a world of hurt, you will cry and wish you were dead, especially when it is severe.

Have had athletes foot before, one of the nasty side effects isn't the itch or burning it is the blisters depending on the variety you get. Blisters are bad news, especially when hiking, and increases your risk for other infections. I keep a variety and supply of blister treatment, and fungal treatments as well as dental products to help keep shit healthy. I never ever ever want to be caught in a survival situation with blisters, infection, or an abscessed tooth.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

I ended up having to have a tooth pulled and I got a dry socket. I can tell ya, a dry socket is a miserable experience.

They make a 'toothache' kit. It has an oil in it that tastes like really crappy cloves. It DOES work to relieve the pain a bit. You put it right on the dry socket or bad tooth and it deadens the nerve. If you have a tooth issue and no antibiotics, it can kill you, and miserably. Without antibiotics, you can die from a rotten abscessed tooth.

It pays to take really good care of your teeth. It's important to floss. Some folks like me, just got a bad genetic deck of cards. It pays to take as good care of your teeth as you can afford right now, so if SHTF you can go without dental care for a while.

If nCoV does bolt worldwide, it will require people isolate themselves to not be infected. My sources can no longer get statistics from Saudi Arabia. Like I said, it appears this is a bigger problem than any one in the Arabian Peninsula is ready to admit, or can effectively deal with. I hope our military is on this issue. I don't like seeing our troops exposed to this.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

For any one interested in this stuff, the movie Contagion is on HBO-W right now. It's drama, with some truth to it. May be an interesting watch. I don't know, I have never seen it. I've seen a few of these pandemic type movies. We will see how factual this one is.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Another update. They are attempting to use Ribavirin and Interferon to treat nCoV. This is the same regimen as used for Hep C. Thus far, you can see the mortality rate, even with treatment. The treatment is very difficult, not unlike chemo. It's very hard on people. It has severe side effects that a compromised person may just not be able to handle and we don't really know if it works. It's probable we don't have enough of the drugs as well. 

Then to make matters worse, the virus mutates rapidly, making treatment more difficult. 

It's worth keeping on your radar.


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## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

Just read on cnn the virus is in italy and they have reported 3 cases.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Don't see much on the mainstream media sites. 

Not sure I want too. Unless I'm already bugged out.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

The 3 cases in Italy are a man who went to Saudi and came back with it, giving it to his 2 year old niece and a female coworker in the hotel industry. Thus far, they have notified and tested 23 individual contacts of these people.

So far, every case has its origin in the countries of the Arabian peninsula. Every case has eventually been traced back to Saudi, UAE, Qatar, or Jordan. THIS is where this started, but, it won't stay that way. The Italian and the Brit both gave it to family members. At some point the circle will widen. I think it takes a specific viral load to catch this. Either you spend time with the person or have them sneeze or cough right in your face, or you pick it up from other bodily secretions. I am not sure it can be picked up from surfaces as well. No one has established that. Given it isn't spreading like wildfire, I suspect you need a substantial viral load to catch it. Eventually, the germ will mutate so such a large load isn't needed, or it will burn itself out. My concern is the upcoming season for pilgrimages to occur and the large number of people traveling to Mecca and other sites. It is a recipe for disaster that doesn't seem to be being taken seriously. Each time this germ infects a person, it learns more about us as a host. One of these days it is going to mutate, and be more effective in terms of spreading. It's already an effective killer. The thing is, being an effective killer is not so good, because then the virus doesn't replicate itself.....being an effective spreader is more conducive to replication. The germ is programmed to spread itself, like a computer virus. It wants to spread. So, it is programed by nature to seek this genetic mutation, to become a better spreader. (As I said, often times a germ may sacrifice lethality for the ability to spread.) If as the WHO states, this is a risk to all of mankind, why are we not recommending essential travel only to the Middle East? Russia is the only country recommending this.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Twelve people have tested positive in Italy. I assume this is in addition to the 2 we already know of from the index case, 45 year old male with recent travel history to Saudi. None of the 12 have symptoms. The Italian government has decided not to quarantine them, which, at this point could be a mistake they regret. Then again, if it is transmitting that aggressively, it is likely all over the map at this point. We really have no handle on how fast this spreads, what the fatality rate actually is, nor what the incubation period is (time from exposure to the time one is sick or seropositive.)

What a mess.

Before any one panics, let me say this; We have to wait for more data. We need to see if any of these 12 develop disease. If that happens we know more or less, what the *incubation period* is. We need to assess if any of these people shed virus, making them contagious to others, even though they are not sick. (*Asymptomatic carriers* as in Typhoid Mary). We will have to see what percentage of seropositive people die, and how many survive. This will give us the *case fatality rate*. ALL of these are unknown right now.

We know they tested 50 contacts of the 3 people who got the disease in Italy, the 45 year old man, his female coworker from the hotel, and his 2 year old niece. It does not appear they tested any one on the airplane with him on his way back from Saudi. The index case, the 45 year old man, stated his son in Jordan was ill with the 'flu' while he was there, so this actually probably came rom Jordan, not Saudi. He gave it to the 2 other people and between the 3 of them infected at least 12 others, who are not yet showing symptoms. They may not get sick, or they may. This cluster will tell us a lot about the disease.

If you have health issues, mainly stuff like being on steroids or chemo, anything that immunosuppresses you, you could be more vulnerable to this disease. It has killed mostly people with pre-existing health issues, but, to be honest, we have gotten very little information from any of the Middle East countries regarding this illness. They just are not equipped to diagnose this. I wonder if we are any better prepared?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

So today, it appears the Italian government is saying, these 12 people tested negative upon a secondary test, leaving us with just the 3 cases and a whole lot of wonder if they even have a clue what they are doing. I'm was a bit skeptical when I saw they just did throat swabs....nCoV hasn't been easy to find with throat swabs and usually requires bronchoalveolar lavage to get a sample.

So, I don't know what information we will get from this cluster either.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Thanks for the updates.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Saudi Silence on Deadly MERS Virus Outbreak Frustrates World Health Experts

Interesting read.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

It's sad. Supposedly our ally. Imagine a break out in Iran or North Korea. With friends like the House of Saud who needs enemies.


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

Our policies towards the house of Saud seem to be put us and a lot of others in jeopardy. Thanks for the updates.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

While true we do get something in return. Our dollar remains the world's reserve currency (big) and we get low cost energy (also big). If I were to give our present dictator any credit it would be for not intefering with the drilling and oil production in the North Dakota territory and even in Texas. I'm elated at how much production the US has developed in the last 5 years. A fan of ofailure was touting this as a big success for him; to which I replied it was all started (on paper) long before ofailure took office - but I do give him credit for not stopping it. While it would still hurt if we lost our imported cheap oil its no longer impossible for us to meet our own needs. I dare say if the House of Saud cut us off tomorrow (more likely the people will cut them off) we'd certainly hurt big time but within 24 months we could meet our own needs. (Might have to shoot a few lawyers first - jk).

Sorry way off topic,

It is intriguing how the governments of the world don't like to talk about pandemic potentials much.



retired guard said:


> Our policies towards the house of Saud seem to be put us and a lot of others in jeopardy. Thanks for the updates.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

The Saudis have curtailed the number of visas they will allow for Ramadan and the Hajj. They are telling people it may be better to come another year......due to construction?

We still have no credible count on the number of infections.

And don't forget, H7N9 isn't gone for good.

(If ya don't hear from me on here, I'm super busy right now with our homestead, but I am watching this. I just don't post every time the Saudis break wind.)


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Not much new to report. Figures are still mounting but, it has been very difficult to get an accurate count. This is interesting tho.

As Virus Spreads, Saudi Arabia Restricts Pilgrimage Numbers - Middle East Real Time - WSJ


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Oh, I haven't been posting much because this is my super busy time on our little farm. The workload is crazy and I'm out from dawn to dusk unless it's raining or ungodly hot. I do check the pandemic scene every AM and PM and will report anything significant.

We added rabbits to our animals, and I ended up with a huge hatch of chicks, which was unexpected, (I didn't figure all those eggs were fertile and would hatch) and with all the rain my garden is on overdrive. We have had 10" more rain than average. Last year we had terrible drought. Roads are flooded and fields washed out. We are fine here tho. My garden isn't a garden, and it isn't a farm...it's in between, so it's big and it's weedy, so there is always more work than daylight and energy. Working in the garden means working in wet muck. No rest for the weary and no time to sit and chat with friends online or even in person!


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## retired guard (Mar 7, 2013)

IngaLisa said:


> Oh, I haven't been posting much because this is my super busy time on our little farm. The workload is crazy and I'm out from dawn to dusk unless it's raining or ungodly hot. I do check the pandemic scene every AM and PM and will report anything significant.
> 
> We added rabbits to our animals, and I ended up with a huge hatch of chicks, which was unexpected, (I didn't figure all those eggs were fertile and would hatch) and with all the rain my garden is on overdrive. We have had 10" more rain than average. Last year we had terrible drought. Roads are flooded and fields washed out. We are fine here tho. My garden isn't a garden, and it isn't a farm...it's in between, so it's big and it's weedy, so there is always more work than daylight and energy. Working in the garden means working in wet muck. No rest for the weary and no time to sit and chat with friends online or even in person!


Glad to here your efforts are bearing good fruit and love reading your posts just don't forget to take care of you.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

This is a human engineered mutation of a strain being tested in the Middle East (country is still not verified) for biological warfare. Someone in the lab decided to be a suicide biological bomb.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Do you have evidence of the engineering and "suicide biological" bomber or is this just your considered opinion?


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

I'm not in the evidence business. I'm just passing on from what I consider to be a reliable source. Just disregard it until you say to your self that you read it here first. If contained it will not matter. If it is not container it still will not matter.


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## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

I read about the virus being man made just don't remember where i.read. it.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

There is no evidence that this is biowarfare. The H5N1 virus was tinkered with in the lab, but that was also not a biowarfare thing, more likely it was aimed at profits. nCoV appears to have had its origin in the UAE and Qatar. There is some thought that nCoV may have originated in camels, and made the jump to humans from them. It made its appearance shortly after the Hajj in 2012.

There are several reasons to up the concern level on nCoV right now. One is the possible breakdown of government in Egypt, not to mention mass gatherings of hundreds of thousands of people. Syria is a mess with refugees all over. There is reason to believe it is more widespread in Saudi than they are admitting, and it isn't just in Saudi. We just can't get reliable statistics on this disease. We do get news releases of odd incidents such as mass closings of schools etc. in several Middle Eastern countries. It's likely at this point that many have travelled to Mecca already, given Ramadan starts in a week.

They are testing a first possible case in Hong Kong. We don't have the results yet. A man who went to Tunisia and Dubai, and went camel riding. Apparently he is in the hospital in Hong Kong and they are awaiting tests. Testing for nCoV is difficult and often nasal swabbing isn't sufficient. It requires bronchoalveolar lavage, and that is quiet an invasive procedure.

I'm not sure how well they can contain this disease any more. But with the social unrest and then the Hajj, it seems to me, it could be a lot more difficult in a few months. On the good side, it seems to take more than casual contact of a few minutes to spread it (so far). I doubt we will get any more transparency from these highly controlled secretive countries. Watching this virus is mostly watching for when it escapes.


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## Rigged for Quiet (Mar 3, 2013)

My concern, given the regional focus, is an outbreak in a refugee camp. Thousands of people, living in less than sanitary close quarters, with likely weakend immune systems. Sounds like an incubator waiting to happen.


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## roy (May 25, 2013)

During the haaj there are million of Musims from all over the world living in "refugee camps" around Mecca.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

The number of visitors to Mecca from all over the world could be very troublesome. These people will all be flying home to places all over the globe. The other issue I see is the general deterioration of social order in the region, not specifically Saudi but Syria, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq etc. I don't think there are public health systems in place to even identify cases let alone treat them or quarantine them. We just know so little about this disease. As of now, it appears to be a fairly slow spreader, but as I said before, it has been very difficult to get statistics from the region and I don't expect that to change.

The latest on the disease is that a Swiss businessman is ill and in the hospital in Switzerland after travelling extensively in Saudi Arabia. His disease is not yet laboratory confirmed.

I have said before, I believe that there is more of this disease around than we know, which means people are surviving it without intervention, which means ultimately that the death rate is lower than the 60% rate we see. I would expect to see a drop in the case fatality rate as this spreads. That said, it is still a very dangerous disease and the lack of transparency on the part of Saudi Arabia is frustrating. There seems to be a distinct reticence to admit that this isn't a situation that they can 'control'. There is just too much we do not know about this disease. There is no vaccine. There is no drug to treat this. That in itself is scary.


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

Six new cases of nCoV reported yesterday, 4 of them in health care workers being monitored after exposure to a patient in the United Arab Emirates, 2 cases in Saudi Arabia.

WHO is reluctant to call it a World Health Emergency, but their reasons for this strain credulity. In the mean time, millions flock to Saudi Arabia to do their religious duty and the powers that be, figure that is worth the risk to the world population.


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## Rigged for Quiet (Mar 3, 2013)

I read in the last day or two that they are now urging the elderly and the very young to not make the pligramige this year due to the outbreak. I was surprised by the article.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

A little off topic but I just got back from taking my wife to the doctor and saw a poster that states we are in the middle of a Whooping cough epidemic! ??? WTF? Really - an epidemic and I had to go to the doctor's office to find out?

Is this for real or are they just pushing vaccinations?


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## IngaLisa (Jan 31, 2013)

We are seeing a resurgence of Whooping Cough, or Pertussis. The vaccine we got as children needs a booster every 10 years, I believe. So, adults who thought they were immunized, actually are spreading the Pertussis germ to infants who have not been vaccinated yet (mostly children under age 8 weeks.) So, yes, we are seeing MORE Pertussis. I did get the vaccine designed for adults. It is being put back in the Diptheria-Tetanus shot we get every 10 years as a booster, or you can just get a Pertussis vaccine single.


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