# Prep for the statistically most likely event



## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

According to statistics collected by the USG, heat waves kill more U.S. residents than any other natural disaster. As many as 10,000 people have died in past events. As urban areas get hotter electricity systems are strained, making power loss to air conditioning equipment more likely at the worst possible time. And as the population ages, the problem grows.

I admit, I'm not well prepared for this. I don't have a generator (will a generator even run an air conditioner?). My basement is cool even in summer, and I've got plenty of water, so I guess we'll just have to sweat it out.

Second on the list is hurricanes, which I would venture most members here are well prepared for.

An interesting piece of info from Wikipedia: The number of heat fatalities is likely highly underreported due to lack of reports and misreports. Part of the mortality observed during a heat wave, however, can be attributed to a so-called "harvesting effect", a term for a short-term forward mortality displacement. It has been observed that for some heat waves, there is a compensatory decrease in overall mortality during the subsequent weeks after a heat wave. Such compensatory reduction in mortality suggests that heat affects especially those so ill that they "would have died in the short term anyway".


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## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

Yes on 1,Nope on 2


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## trips-man (Apr 26, 2015)

I'm guessing mylar equipment (emergency blanket, etc) would be good for #1.


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

Living in the hinterlands of Missouri, hurricanes are not a big issue, but we have contingency plans for tornadoes, and short-term flooding (important, as the easiest road to the BOL goes under frequently). Heat is not as dangerous as in a city, but still worth considering. You can absolutely run a good fan from any generator or a decent battery, and if you've got enough water to blow the air over the water's surface or even through some light but wetted cheesecloth, you get enough cooling to make a significant difference.

I applaud the concept of thinking statistically, not just dramatically, about what to prep for.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

I believe that it is a HUGE mistake to rely on "statistics" to determine what you are prepping for.

The economic meltdown that is coming........the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the collapse of this country's infrastructure, the ensuing civil unrest, lack of food and water, martial law, etc., HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in this country.

The most extreme measures taken by the U.S. government have been during times of war and times of civil unrest. Curfews, rationing, National Guard presence, etc.

Statistics are not going to mention ANY of the above-mentioned "disasters".

Tornadoes, hurricanes, heat waves...................child's play, compared to what is going to happen.


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

They had a heat wave with power outages about 15 years ago. A lot of elderly people died, the morgue filled up and they buried a lot of them under a small road by a parking lot. Sad and disgusting.


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## Hemi45 (May 5, 2014)

James m said:


> They had a heat wave with power outages about 15 years ago. A lot of elderly people died, the morgue filled up and they buried a lot of them under a small road by a parking lot. Sad and disgusting.


Who is "they"?


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

The government.


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

PatriotFlamethrower said:


> I believe that it is a HUGE mistake to rely on "statistics" to determine what you are prepping for.
> 
> The economic meltdown that is coming........the devaluation of the U.S. dollar, the collapse of this country's infrastructure, the ensuing civil unrest, lack of food and water, martial law, etc., HAS NEVER HAPPENED BEFORE in this country.
> 
> ...


It's like the quote "All wars are the same size, because death is one to the customer."

I agree that prepping for big events that don't happen often in any one area is also valuable. History is chock full of fallen civilizations, after all. I just hope people don't overlook all the more common stuff, just because it doesn't sound as dramatic. A tornado is plenty dramatic if it's right over *your* head, and can mess up your whole world - especially if you're unprepared.


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## trips-man (Apr 26, 2015)

Prepparing for the worst will help you be prepared for the less dramatic.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I always prepare for the most likely. Hurricanes, flooding, tornadoes, and heat are all issues here in Houston. I have those pretty well covered. I occasionally upgrade and add to those specific supplies. I work concentricly outwards to include the possibilities of civil war, war, civil unrest, WROL, and so on. Good advise. Cover the likely first then get ready for other really bad scenarios.


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## ajk1941 (Feb 17, 2013)

I think that the economic meltdown ( collapse of the dollar) is the highest probability followed by a failure of the electrical grid (EMP) are the two most likely possibilities. In both cases, martial law will be declared and become the long term normalization of government control especially if Obama is still in office. All this seems to be a frightful possibility of what's in store for all of us.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

1. Walk down in basement and close door. Enjoy natures AC and load shells.

2. I'm not going to worry about. If a hurricane hits WI I doubt I'll be around anyways.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Kahr, you have a big point. 

When I was a kid, I spent as much time as possible at my grandparent's house in the country. They had no air conditioning; they used box fans in the windows to cool the interior. This worked well. Today, though, houses are built with the expectation of air conditioning units being used, so they are not designed for air being drawn in from on side and pushed out the other side. Houses designed for A/C become sweat boxes when the power goes out in summer. 

One thing is for sure; the heat is going to come around every year. It only makes sense to prepare for it.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

The way computers have taken over so much of our life and National Defense, I think 
a computer will develop a glitch, the idiots sitting at the screen will see missiles 
coming our way and push the button for retaliation.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

heat is a big one there is always ways to keep warm but only so much to cool off. if heat is what worries you conditioning yourself and not the air is what you need to do, your body is a very capable of adapting, today just about everywhere a person goes there is AC in the car the house, work, stores -it is like we can not live without it-oh my is to hot outside ,stay out of the sun you'll get skin cancer blah,blah,blah if you don't run the air or at least minimize it a miraculous thing will happen you'll get used to living without it. we are unique in the animal world because most animals adapt to the environment we have a habit of making the environment adapt to us. By acclimatizing ourselves we become less dependent on technology to acclimatize the environment to us thus becoming more independent about ourselves. One simple way I have used for years is a swimming pool it doesn't have to be fancy I started with a simple ring pool (inflate the ring fill with water) it was about 30 inches deep and 8 foot in diameter and it was beautiful I only paid 40 bucks for it at wally world on clearance and another 50 for a gazebo screen tent to keep bugs and stuff away as well provided shade it lasted 3 years until I gave it to my bro-in-law when I bought a bigger one -he still uses it on his back porch -it works gives you a place to really cool off and relax -hurricanes - that is not for everyone I have been in two and a couple typhoons not my favorite -I moved to the Midwest cause I don't want to worry about hose things ever again - tornados just suck but I have a shelter and a safe room in the basement that built using steel I beams and a welder it not fancy but will keep my family safe if the house collapses down on us. being prepared is not a hobby it is a way of life a person must constantly be making choices, learning, and doing, sitting around thinking cause I got 5billion bullets and 10 guns a couple sleeping bags a backpack full of gadgets and 30 days worth of food I'm good is the wrong attitude life is a lesson we learn when it's done.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Medic stole my thunder. Good post!

People who die in heatwaves are either victims of themselves or of circumstance.
Most are elderly or dangerously ill.(circumstance)
The rest think they can continue with life as usual and not suffer... until it's too late. (themselves)

We all know heat stroke is real, but most people don't know how to avoid it properly, or perhaps more dangerous, don't know how to remedy it. Keeping yourself hydrated is all fine and good, but it isn't enough when you're active in triple digits.
I did some fence work back in high school for an old guy down the street. That man knew how to work in the heat, and taught me too. It was 102 at midday, surrounded by sandy loam soil, driving t-posts into the ground and stringing wire. Every 15 minutes, he demanded we take a break and sit in the shade. I didn't feel it was necessary, but that was my adolescent ignorance. A light colored, wide-brim hat, a handkerchief on the neck to collect sweat for cooling off, and cotton clothing with long sleeves. Neither of us ever had an issue.
That work would have likely killed me if he hadn't taught me the right way to do it.

Medic's pool idea is a great one. Even water that feels warm will cool down an overheated body. It's just a property of water. It is an excellent heat absorber and submersing in it will literally pull heat out of your body. You don't want it to be cold water either. That can shock the body and cause other issues.

As for what I prep for, in Texas, we have heatwaves pretty much covered.
Tornadoes are another story. While *I* have lots of "stuff" in case of such an emergency, my neighbors do not. Also, if it all gets whisked away to Oz, I'm up a creek. My wife wants to invest in a steel room for shelter. That would help tremendously, but the cost and space is a real drag.

When it comes to economic collapse, while I consider it highly likely to happen, I don't know if there is much else I can do to deal with it.
Until it happens here, all we really have are stories of it happening elsewhere to learn from.
Learn trade skills, learn survival skills, stock what you can, and be prepared to defend it.


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## slewfoot (Nov 6, 2013)

PatriotFlamethrower said:


> I believe that it is a HUGE mistake to rely on "statistics" to determine what you are prepping for.


We pay no attention to "statistics".
As I have said in other threads such as this, we prepare for the worst hurricane. If you are prepaired for the worst you will survive the others.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

sideKahr said:


> According to statistics collected by the USG, heat waves kill more U.S. residents than any other natural disaster. As many as 10,000 people have died in past events. As urban areas get hotter electricity systems are strained, making power loss to air conditioning equipment more likely at the worst possible time. And as the population ages, the problem grows.
> 
> I admit, I'm not well prepared for this. I don't have a generator (will a generator even run an air conditioner?). My basement is cool even in summer, and I've got plenty of water, so I guess we'll just have to sweat it out.
> 
> ...


We built Slippy Lodge with Grid Down situation firmly on our mind. Whether its grid down due to a storm, lack of supply due to EPA shuttering of coal powered electricity plants or a EOTWAWKI no more electricity situation; we felt strongly about having a "Passive Solar Home" reminiscent to what Southerner's built before AC. The official name is Southern Vernacular Architecture. Think old south Dog Trot Houses.

Deep porches to keep direct sunlight out of the home, high ceilings to allow heat to rise and transom windows high to allow the prevailing breezes to take the heat that rises, out of the home. I went a few steps further and only put transom windows on the East and West side of the home to reduce as much direct sunlight as possible. With all the windows open we get some very nice cross breezes and its relatively comfortable.

Solar Power is on my never ending list and I hope that prices keep dropping. But yes, heat related prepping is serious business.

Good thread sir.


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## Dirk Pitt (Apr 21, 2015)

Living here in S. California my biggest concern is earthquakes, not really a statistic, but the threat is real. Most of my preps revolve around that which then prepares you for lots of other stuff too.


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## Hemi45 (May 5, 2014)

James m said:


> The government.


Wow, that sure clears things up. Let me guess, a guy your cousin knows read that online somewhere


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

statistically......LOL

#1... all disaster will require FOOD, WATER, SHELTER, SECURITY, MEDICAL

#2... The disaster that happens the most in your area is not the one that will get you... it will be odd ball 1,000 year flood, the tornado, the freak snow storm in May...



Heat is easy to deal with... yes easy to deal with... the problem is people do not do the easy things....get outside, find shade, drink fluids, pour water on yourself - not freezing water... even lukewarm water will evaporate and cool you off.. it is the old and young that mostly die...

If you are ready for SHTF you should be able to last through a 4 day heat wave


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

Hemi45 said:


> Wow, that sure clears things up. Let me guess, a guy your cousin knows read that online somewhere


I'm telling ya I saw it!! The government buried Alien bodies under the road by a parking lot!! If'n you don't believe me just ask th


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Re: will a generator run an air conditioner. The answer is that it depends. A typical high end generator intended to run the whole house can work under a variety of scenarios, though it is typical to size the generator for a portion of the house, or the whole house except for electrical A/C. However, you can size the generator to handle the load, size it to handle a window unit for room or two, or if our house has a natural gas A/C unit, the generator just needs to support the controls.


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## warrior4 (Oct 16, 2013)

I've said for years I'd rather be hot than cold. It's a lot easier to take energy out of the body system than it is to put energy back into it. Limiting strenuous activity during a heat wave and getting most of the work done in the early morning and evening is another strategy too. There's a reason why a lot of places along the Mediterranean Sea take a siesta during the hottest part of the day. It's a good strategy. You see it in the animal kingdom too. During the heat of the day a lot of animals bed down and rest and then get more active during the cooler parts of the day and into the night. Heat is a concern but with most anything if you know how to deal with it, it's overcomable. 

I like the idea of prepping for the most likely scenario first. That's what got me into prepping. In my neck of the woods that would be blizzards in the winter causing power outages and severe thunderstorms in the summer causing the same. So figuring on those is where I started. It's also a good way for someone who is new to prepping to focus their thoughts. After they get together some preps for the most likely they can start working on more less likely or longer term preps.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

There are infinite examples of U.S. citizens needlessly suffering and dying from natural disasters (floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, heat waves, blizzards, earthquakes, etc.) because THEY WAITED FOR THE GOVERNMENT to warn them, to evacuate them, to rescue them, to protect them, to feed them, to relocate them, to give them money, and to provide for all of their needs before, during, and after these disasters.

In my opinion, the U.S. Government, state governments, and local governments are ALL complicit in the deaths of THOUSANDS of Americans by instituting the "Great Society" nonsense that was started by LBJ in the 1960s.

Too many people have become way too dependent on every level of government to take care of their every need.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

The government does not supply air conditioning other than in their own buildings.


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## Sasquatch (Dec 12, 2014)

Aside from small children, elderly and very sick people anyone that dies from a heat wave is just an idiot. Even animals know when it gets hot to not move around in the heat, stay hydrated and find shade.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

For me heat is no problem. I work in a hot environment so I'm used to it and know how to handle it and recognize the symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke in others. And how to treat it.

For the rest I'll echo what Maine Marine noted: food, water, shelter, security, medical.

Short or long term. If you have those covered you'll be alright.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

Diver said:


> The government does not supply air conditioning other than in their own buildings.


I grew up in Phoenix, Arizona, back when only the wealthy had central air conditioning.

Us middle class folks had "swamp coolers", which blew nice HOT AIR into the homes.

Going through many summers of 110-115 degree daily temperatures, everybody found ways to stay cool.

Guess we were just TOUGHER back in the 60s.


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