# Silver



## PalmettoTree

It seems to me the day traders have established a $20 upper threshold.

This tells me that we have seen the bottom and it will take a big INVESTOR buying at larger than average volume to take silver through $20 and up.

Given I think the big individuals have allocated their PM percentage of portfolio we could be in for a long wait.

So that leaves us little buyers. It does not appear collectively we have the buying power to bust the $20 threshold. Why? Because too many joined us expecting a collapse next week. They are sellers. They watch; see the move to $20 and drop. The next time that occurs they sell. Which results in the price retreating again. 

My opinionated point is the bottom has come and gone. Under $20 is the new bottom. Buy but expect to hold. The under $20 price for silver might last three years.


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## Ripon

At $20ish I will probably add some, but $10 would not shock me in the next 12/24 months. I just don't like good / silver as investments because the evidence of their manipulation is too real to ignore. And since I'm not an insider to the games being played I dont have enough to risk as an investment. Silver to me is a great hedge on debt, a decent wealth preservation tool for crisis and a solid likelihood to be a tool of barter in a SHTF crisis. I own it for those reasons not investments. I'm about evenly split between 1 oz Canadian coins and pre 64 silver US coins.


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## PalmettoTree

I think it will always seem the big boys are manipulating prices. Between buying long, selling short, options no up tic rule and computer trading algorithms it is hard to know what is being done legally and illegally.

In my opinion their risk is high because it all boils down to supply and demand. The farther anyone gets from that the more likely they will get caught with their pants down.


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## Ripon

Also, economic indicators do impact gold / silver. People like us buy to have it for wealth preservation in case of a depression or worse. I think the 09-12 spike was in fact due - a lot - to economic shortcomings and inflationary pressures. We're not over 09-12 yet even if the media tells us we are, if there was a market crash (which is sky high right now) it could cause some to rush back in and push gold/silver up again. My perception is, though, if the market crashed it would take gold/silver down with it.


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## scramble4a5

I buy a little bit here and there, mostly Canadians and eagles. I am holding them for the long term. I won't get rich on my holdings that's for sure.


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## Montana Rancher

I purchased 1000 ounces of Canadian maple leaf silvers when the spot price was $19.50 (coin price was about $22) 

OMG in the last 3 weeks the spot price has risen to almost $24

Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain, nothing is wrong, we are all fine.


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## PalmettoTree

The supply is getting thin. It cannot be economics else my stock would not be increasing with the silver price.


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## PalmettoTree

Note both the silver and gold prices popped at 10:00 AM today.

That is a big boy. Why to day did he come out to play?


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## Montana Rancher

sorry if you said "stock price" and "silver" in the same sentence then we need to talk. 

A "stock price' i.e. ETF is not holding anything, I am talking physical silver in my possession

In which case I've made 20% in the last 2 weeks

Annualized that is.... crap.... Not even doable.

My point is get physical and dump paper as fast as you can....

I can link to this in another 4 weeks and say SEEE YOUR FRREEKING BASTARDS YOU SHOULD HAVE LISENED

haha


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## Montana Rancher

Just to reinforce me point

Current Melt Value Of Coins - How Much Is Your Coin Worth?

Silver is now UP 25% in 3-4 weeks

Don't feel you have missed the boat, it is stIll on a sand bar.


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## PalmettoTree

I collect silver coins. I always pay a premium. I expect my grand children to send their grandchildren to college with them. So I do not chase the PM market.


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## PalmettoTree

But since I started this discussion, my take is there will likely be a pull back Tuesday. Mondays are the day everyone jumps on the band wagon. Tuesdays the professionals take profits. 

So if I were in the silver market I would buy at the next pullback.

Sooner or later silver is going higher.


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## StarPD45

I use dollar cost averaging and buy (small) amount of PMs each month. It's for the long term.
As I post this, silver is at $24.52.


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## Ripon

I think you were thwarted by the press release on our pending military actions in Syria. You know we have to tell the world before we actually blow something up.



PalmettoTree said:


> But since I started this discussion, my take is there will likely be a pull back Tuesday. Mondays are the day everyone jumps on the band wagon. Tuesdays the professionals take profits.
> 
> So if I were in the silver market I would buy at the next pullback.
> 
> Sooner or later silver is going higher.


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## Montana Rancher

PalmettoTree said:


> I collect silver coins. I always pay a premium. I expect my grand children to send their grandchildren to college with them. So I do not chase the PM market.


I totally agree with you, PM's are for out children not for us


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## BeefBallsBerry

sliver is a good investment rite now, at $24 an ounce "current price" and it usually hovers around $32 an ounce. maxed out around $50 an ounce about 10yrs ago. That's doubling your investment, the only thing to stand the test of time for $ are precious metals and real estate.


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## scramble4a5

BeefBallsBerry said:


> sliver is a good investment rite now, at $24 an ounce "current price" and it usually hovers around $32 an ounce. maxed out around $50 an ounce about 10yrs ago. That's doubling your investment, the only thing to stand the test of time for $ are precious metals and real estate.


No comment on your post. I am just curious, and slightly afraid, to ask what's the story behind your screen name...


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## PalmettoTree

The average price of silver from Jan '85 thru dec 09 was below $10. It is an untrue statement to say silver "usually hovers around $32."

Silver is a good commodity for storing value. But you must chose. Take physical possession and you pay a premium for getting in and out of your silver investment. 

Let someone else hold your silver and it is in the hands of someone that may or may not have the silver to back up all the silver holders on its books.


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## BeefBallsBerry

scramble4a5 said:


> No comment on your post. I am just curious, and slightly afraid, to ask what's the story behind your screen name...


Page 13...general discussion " how did you get your screen name"


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## preeti

Investment that will guarantee you profit, investing in silver metal is a good choice. They are easy to purchase and easy to sell.


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## Montana Rancher

I've said it before but it is worth repeating

Gold and Silver are for AFTER the shtf, when the current banking system fails and not before...

(unless you have enough to pay off your mortgage which has some merits)

ALL commodities markets are manipulated by short selling, only invest your excess wealth and hold it for the NEW system which WILL pay you money for your PM's.

Unlike your $$$ in the bank which will be worth ... NOTHING


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## preeti

Investment that will guarantee you profit, investing in silver metal is a good choice.They are easy to purchase and easy to sell. Gold is not pocket friendly for most of us.


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## NWPilgrim

I do not "invest" anything in the stock or commodity markets that I can help. In the last several years it has been demonstrated that ALL markets are manipulated, the elite traders cheat (get early information, mix customer and house funds, lie, etc), and the individual investor will take it in the shorts every time. Real estate is in another bubble and property can be taken away or made less usable by govt fiat. 

I buy silver coins to hold a store of value. I don't care one whit how many dollars I can trade a 1 oz silver coin for a year from now or ten years from now. I only care how much gas it can be traded for, how much food, how many shirts and pants, etc. I buy tools to do productive work for my own use and for trade. I invest in learning new skills for my own use and for trade. With the economic environment so corrupted the only investment that will retain value are hard useful goods and skills. 

When I pumped gas back in 1972 (just before the MidEast oil crisis) it cost about $.28-$.32/gal. Just a tad over the value of a pre-64 silver quarter which were still in circulation then. Today, that silver quarter would be worth about $4.50, or slightly more than the cost of a gallon of gas (or should I say gas diluted down with subsidized ethanol unlike the gasoline in 1972). Pretty freaking sad that our currency has lost 90% of its value in just 40 years.


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## preeti

Silver is a friendly investment compare to gold & it is easy to purchase & sell also.


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## ApexPredator

Ok I did my research while I believe PMs will take a while to recover value after a true SHTF event I think with the current economy your getting at least the rate of inflation as an investment every year which could be go through the roof shortly. I dont think you could find a bank that would give you as good in interest for CDs or savings. So what do you economically minded preppers suggest to collect little ingots coins leafs or what??? Try to dumb it down for me I could save your life and kill your enemies but balancing your books would give me a stroke.


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## PalmettoTree

I invest in the stock market, real estate, US silver coins and guns in that order. That is my opinion of the likely hood of needing them.

I disagree that the stock market is manipulated. There're traders they invest large quantities and attempt to make money on moves over short periods. To be effective they must invest both short and long. Within that group are the speculators. There are hedge traders they have consumption interest in manufacturing from raw materials. Within this group there are also speculators. They make up the largest part of stock hedging. All of the above are a benefit to growth and income investors because they add liquidity to the market. Growth or income investors do not care who they buy from or sell to they only care about being able to get in a stock or out quickly.

I pick industry wide opportunities then pick the safest companies to invest in. I almost always require that a company I invest in pay a regular dividend with annual increases. I use a three to five year history but always look to see if they cut or stopped paying a dividend during the 08/09 period. I look for yields of three percent or more.

I retired 3 Jan. 2009. I have taken some of the dividend income from my investments to supplement my social security plus took $80,000 out this year to pay off my mortgage (my only debt). I still have a higher market value in my investments than when I retired.

My point is the market is not rigged. Like the silver market it is often irrational so you must be confident in your fundamental reasoning for investing in a particular stock and willing to wait. This is difficult to do if the stock is not paying a dividend because all you see is your capital loss. With a dividend you see a yield on your invested capital and a higher yield against the market value.


Right or wrong that is my strategy.


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## Ripon

The Price of Silver in 2013 Fell 36%. Here's Why. (HL, PAAS, SLV, SLW)

Silver investors had a bad year. I don't see 2014 being a rebound for them either. The main stream media got their marching orders from the loser in charge on Friday. Go forth and claim a great restored economy so people can forget about obummercare in time for the Nov Election. When the economy is good silver isn't, and while the economy isn't good we are going to be spoon fed how great it is....all year long.


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## Go2ndAmend

It is neither the short sellers nor the day traders which are driving the market in the long term. All markets are driven by the fundamentals. Market manipulation can and has occurred over the very short term, think hours and a day or so at most. Eventually, supply and demand for various commodities rules the day and rules the prices of everything from wheat to silver. I believe that an investment strategy that contains PM's is a solid one. I don't know if the floor for silver is $20/Oz. or if this is the new ceiling. It doesn't matter to me as I view my PM's as a long term investment, a hedge against inflation, and a start-over/barter item if the SHTF. Worrying about mild fluctuations in the price of any commodity will only drive you crazy. Pick a strategy and stick with it and evaluate your strategy over time.


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## PalmettoTree

I think silver will hold or go up in 2014. Like many have said, "I cannot tell you when but silver will go up in value some day." Silver has been stuck longer than I expected. I believe one thing that must happen is. Us average people have got to sever the gold/silver think link. Given its uses even as a practical trading commodity gold is functionally over priced. A dime's weight of silver should be worth about $2.50. In my opinion it is the slow economy and its low industrial demand for silver holding down current prices.

There is zero reasons for such an upward drive on gold. It is too scarce for use as money. It is too scarce for industrial uses. No one wants glover plate. Even the wedding band market has gone to other metals.


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## inceptor

PalmettoTree said:


> I think silver will hold or go up in 2014. Like many have said, "I cannot tell you when but silver will go up in value some day." Silver has been stuck longer than I expected. I believe one thing that must happen is. Us average people have got to sever the gold/silver think link. Given its uses even as a practical trading commodity gold is functionally over priced. A dime's weight of silver should be worth about $2.50. In my opinion it is the slow economy and its low industrial demand for silver holding down current prices.
> 
> There is zero reasons for such an upward drive on gold. It is too scarce for use as money. It is too scarce for industrial uses. No one wants glover plate. Even the wedding band market has gone to other metals.


But some countries are stockpiling gold. Take a look at China:

China expected to announce it has more than doubled gold reserve, expert says | Shanghai Daily

Since the Fed won't return the gold they were holding for Texas, Germany and others, I imagine the demand for replacing it is what is driving up the price.

GOLD BANK RUN ACCELERATING: First Venezuela, Then Germany, The Netherlands, And Now Switzerland Want Their Gold Back!! Bundesbank: ?The Gold Repatriation Is ? Without Doubt- ?Preemptive? In Case A ?Currency Crisis? Hits The European Monetary Union.?


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## PalmettoTree

inceptor said:


> But some countries are stockpiling gold. Take a look at China:
> 
> China expected to announce it has more than doubled gold reserve, expert says | Shanghai Daily
> 
> Since the Fed won't return the gold they were holding for Texas, Germany and others, I imagine the demand for replacing it is what is driving up the price.
> 
> GOLD BANK RUN ACCELERATING: First Venezuela, Then Germany, The Netherlands, And Now Switzerland Want Their Gold Back!! Bundesbank: ?The Gold Repatriation Is ? Without Doubt- ?Preemptive? In Case A ?Currency Crisis? Hits The European Monetary Union.?


I have doubts about the authenticity such reports. Additionally there are accounting problems for valuing Gold on government balance sheets. Clearly gold has demonstrated that it is not have the store in value trait merchants claim. Only mythology is supporting gold's current price. Gold has been a poor investment since late 2010. It will only take one person with holdings like Buffett, Gates or Soros determined to liquidate and the price will collapse. Gold does not fit their investing philosophies.


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## inceptor

PalmettoTree said:


> *I have doubts about the authenticity such reports.* Additionally there are accounting problems for valuing Gold on government balance sheets. Clearly gold has demonstrated that it is not have the store in value trait merchants claim. Only mythology is supporting gold's current price. Gold has been a poor investment since late 2010. It will only take one person with holdings like Buffett, Gates or Soros determined to liquidate and the price will collapse. Gold does not fit their investing philosophies.


I really thought you would feel that way. Do an internet search. There are many articles on this, those were the really easy ones. Even Der Spiegel had an article about Germany. Do you think that what is reported about China is fake?


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## PalmettoTree

I have scanned a few. Some are dated. It seems to me any purchases will be an effort to support gold prices. That is a poor reason for central banks to buy. I think advocates for such are waning. I believe purchases by central banks during 2013 is why the slide of gold prices have slowed or stopped.

I never have been a big gold person. The price, based on my ability to pay it historically, has always seemed too high for the amount of metal you get. Therefore I admit to a likely bias. So consider the source and think of my post as a devil's advocate if you will.
S
No matter what the opinion on any subject one can find support for one's position. I almost universally distrust everything regardless of the media.

In my mind the biggest argument against my position is: The number of gold buyers continue to decline in the face of declining prices. At some point gold prices will over shoot a reasonable decline. The fact that central banks not individuals are cited as buyers puts an exclamation point on that. I believe there are only two to three dozen central banks that could reasonably be in the market. (I'd like your opinion on that.)

One other question, why do you suppose gems have never become an alternative to PMs?


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## Denton

China, among other countries, are so certain that gold is worthless that they are selflessly buying the stuff up at record amounts so that the rest of us aren't troubled with the junk.


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## PalmettoTree

Denton said:


> China, among other countries, are so certain that gold is worthless that they are selflessly buying the stuff up at record amounts so that the rest of us aren't troubled with the junk.


I've been hearing that for a year or more. I saw Jan. 2013 inventories it will be interesting to see 2014. I 'm not sure how such numbers can be validated. If buys are going at record levels just think how the price will drop when they stop.


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## Denton

PalmettoTree said:


> I've been hearing that for a year or more. I saw Jan. 2013 inventories it will be interesting to see 2014. I 'm not sure how such numbers can be validated. If buys are going at record levels just think how the price will drop when they stop.


Who says they will stop draining the West?

Imagine what prices are going to be when the West is out? Who will set the price?


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## Ripon

Isn't china one of the biggest producers of newly mined gold? I've heard they mine more but then they buy, and sell more? And more important how could you trust any figure presented by them?


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## Denton

For months, I have been reading about the number of tons of gold they are buying. Not only is the government buying gold, but has encouraged the people to buy it. This has been reported by the people who watch the sell of precious metals, and not what the Chinese government says. I mean, really; who would trust anything from a government source? :shock::shock::shock:


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## PalmettoTree

I thought Russia had the largest unmixed gold reserves.

China with its huge population can influence prices by encouraging its population to buy gold.

Put together the gold narrative does not make sense. There are conflicting stories that have only one thing in common. If believed they support the ongoing consumption of gold.

Short of boasting rights I see zero advantage to haven't gold with a thousand dollars in value over silver with a thousand dollars in value. The utility of silver is far superior to gold. This in the long run is going to give greater value support.


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## Denton

PalmettoTree said:


> I thought Russia had the largest unmixed gold reserves.
> 
> China with its huge population can influence prices by encouraging its population to buy gold.
> 
> Put together the gold narrative does not make sense. There are conflicting stories that have only one thing in common. If believed they support the ongoing consumption of gold.
> 
> Short of boasting rights I see zero advantage to haven't gold with a thousand dollars in value over silver with a thousand dollars in value. The utility of silver is far superior to gold. This in the long run is going to give greater value support.


In theory, I agree with you. That is to say, as individuals, and considering the history of the two precious metals with regard to trade, silver has been used for domestic trade and gold for international trade. From an historical point of view, silver should be more useful.
Secondly, silver is used as an industrial metal, which means it is not merely stored for the purpose of maintaining wealth, but is also used in items ranging from cell phones to surgical instruments. Silver, in other words, goes to the landfills. So, yes, I think silver has a lot more room for upward movement, as far as investing goes.

I think China's point of view is to have a global currency that is backed by gold, and in doing so, knock the wind out of the Dollar's sails to the point where the dollar finally collapses. While we discuss this, nations from Australia to Saudi Arabia are making currency deals with China. All the while, the American citizenry has no idea what is happening and what it will mean to them.


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## Ripon

If you want to buy it, why would you encourage your population to buy it and compete with you? If you want to drive the price up - you do that.
I recall an interesting story about China in the 1980's about how they may well mirror the United States in time if we are successful they want to be
successful too. So I have to wonder if they might not try the same maneuver we did in the 1920's and demand their public's gold - I'm sure that
would have a negative impact on the price - but it'd sure make it easier for their government to buy?


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## PalmettoTree

I believe the countries making bilateral currency links with China will regret such a move. Such attempts have failed which is why commodity backing of currencies also failed.

These links will work for a while but sooner or later an imbalance will occur. When this happens the next George Soros will bankrupt the linkage. That is how he first got rich and one reason combining European currencies turned to the Euro. They also thought they could get energy to use a Euro base.

We are now crude and natural gas independent for all practical purposes. We cannot process all the crude we have which is why gas is high. Russia is energy independent. The Middle East is still oil rich but they are likely to revert back to being incapable of exporting.

The long and short is China should be feared militarily but not monetarily.

Yes we are dumb but the world is filled with dumb people.


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## Pir8fan

For me, it's nothing but coin of the realm. I only have pre-64 coins and a few maple leafs.


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## USPrepperSupply

I just picked up ten ounces yesterday, and plan on stopping by to pick up some more today.


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