# Global logistics. Should a prepper care?



## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

I presume we are all consumers at some degree.
While I would love to live off-the-grid, and be as self-reliant as possible, I still consume things.
Consequently, supply-and-demand is at every level of consumption, whether you're hiking, homeless, or healthy and wealthy.

A friend recently asked me about the longshoreman strike on the west coast.
Me and my fellow researchers are constantly providing data to the journalists on various aspects of this issue.
In a thesis statement - sort of - "transpacific trade (Asia to US West Coast) is severely degraded."
For a couple of years capacity (the volume of containers) by carriers has been searching other ways to get to consumers.
This chart was published last week but it still applies today.








I cannot share more than that but I can tell you the since October 2014 transpacific capacity has dropped another 5 percent or 16,898 TEUs per week!
TEUs = 20ft containers. 
FEUs = 40 containers (these you will mostly see on the highways)
One TEU can hold the 800 flat screen tv or an average size car. 
One FEU can hold all the items in a 3br, 2ba home.
So... roughly 8,000 tractor trailers are not leaving the US West coast "weekly" with goods for your factory or retailer.

This just FYI. There is a lot of people bigger than me with reasons why this is going on... you can decide on "why" for yourself.
I can show that it is happening. Not why. I don't get paid for that.


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

At one time I paid attention to the Baltic Dry Index, as it was supposedly a good indicator of what the global economy would be doing in the relatively near future. Given your employment I'm sure you know all about the BDI.
Perhaps I need to start looking at that again.
For those who have never heard of the BDI before, Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

Collapse of Baltic Dry Index - Moneycontrol.com

How The Baltic Dry Index Predicted 3 Market Crashes: Will It Do It Again? | Seeking Alpha


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Yes, we have heard of it but our focus is on cargo capacity and all that moving the boxes entails. 
The BDI is more about the financial aspects of global markets and a predictive element.
I spend so much of my time in the present and the past that I walk backwards. ;-)



rice paddy daddy said:


> At one time I paid attention to the Baltic Dry Index, as it was supposedly a good indicator of what the global economy would be doing in the relatively near future. Given your employment I'm sure you know all about the BDI.
> Perhaps I need to start looking at that again.
> For those who have never heard of the BDI before, Baltic Dry Index - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Since October of 2014 there has been a longshoreman contract dispute. 

Yet another reason for Panamax and bringing the ships to Houston and east coast ports. 

Screw the west coast ports.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Piratesailor said:


> Since October of 2014 there has been a longshoreman contract dispute.
> 
> Yet another reason for Panamax and bringing the ships to Houston and east coast ports.
> 
> Screw the west coast ports.


The new locks are expected to be done in 2016 for the "New Panamax" standard. Will be interesting to see how many New Panamax ships start hitting production.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

This is another aspect of inflation that affects a person's disposable income. Add to that various regulations and the "popular" opinion that a "living wage" requires a minimum wage increase, and you have higher prices of goods and services. Look for certain big box retailers to announce that (regardless) of any enaction of a minimum wage increase, they will raise their worker's wages over the next year or so...WalMart, Home Depot, companies like this. 

Another good reason to be prepared. Good thread CWOLDOJAX.


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

My question is simply why can't those ships go to another west coast dock & unload?


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Concerning the Super Panamax is something I've hoped our port in JAX would get ready for... (sigh) politics.

I'm watching the Chinese to see if they ante-up on the promise to build a canal across Nicaragua. 
Plus they are spending lots of money in the Seychelles for an air/navy base. Which is conveniently located near some mines in Tanzania and strategically patrolling South African waters. But that's farther out on the calendar.

Before I get accused of being an alarmist. I'm just watching the traffic. We'll see what develops.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

HuntingHawk said:


> My question is simply why can't those ships go to another west coast dock & unload?


The chart I showed that they have been. Mexico and Canada.
The Gulf coast and east coast are getting and increase but the transport is more expensive because Panama now charges per box for passage through the canal to pay for the expansion.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

FYI


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## rice paddy daddy (Jul 17, 2012)

From 2006 thru 2013 my warehouse was the main distribution point for nails and fasteners for our corporations nationwide system of wholesale branches.
We would get 20 to 30 twenty and fourty foot cans (containers) a week from China, Korea, and Dubai, coming into the ports of Jacksonville and Savannah.
At one point I was responsible for 13.5 million dollars of inventory.
The building bust took all that away.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

I can relate. The housing bust took my IT job away too.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

HuntingHawk said:


> My question is simply why can't those ships go to another west coast dock & unload?


As was mentioned, some of the ships are going to ports in Canada and Mexico. The Longshoreman strike has ecompassed all of the west coast of the US. And there are some ports that can't take the larger container ships. So they wait.

Houston one of the closest ports to Panama that is ready for the larger ships. The ship channel has been dredged to the needed depth and the faxilities are ready.

We'll see how the strike goes and how it effects shipping. The last strike was stopped by either bush sr. or Clinton enacting the taft hartly. I don't see our illustrial ruler that is currently in office doing such a thing. What's funny is the critial point of the negotiations is because or the tax on healthcare lnflicted by obamacare. And here we thought unions were his friends...


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

The original question was how does this stuff affect preppers.

It does not affect my family. We are well on our way to "full" preparation. I only have control over what happens on our land and under our roof. The outside world is out of my control.


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