# US Electricity Costs hit Record High; Time For Solar?



## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/price-electricity-hit-record-high-us-2014

Like many of you I've been studying solar power for a number of years now. A few years ago (2012), I crunched the numbers to install a system to take my homestead 100% Off Grid...and the cost was overwhelming. The payback at the time was 30 years!

Fast Forward to today and Energy Costs continue to climb. Yes, Oil and Gas prices have dropped in the last 3 months or so, and to me that's a good thing...BUT with the EPA attacks on Coal and Coal Fired Power Plants, I see electricity prices continuing to climb. I also see a higher probability for rolling black outs as the current Grid is overloaded during peak times in the summer and winter.

Natural Gas is a good alternative for some, but I have no supplier in my area. Propane is my backup currently.

So my question: Is now the time to invest in an Off Grid Solar System even though today's costs don't justify it? But the unknown is what we prepare for right?


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Price of Electricity Hit Record High in U.S. in 2014 | CNS News
> 
> Like many of you I've been studying solar power for a number of years now. A few years ago (2012), I crunched the numbers to install a system to take my homestead 100% Off Grid...and the cost was overwhelming. The payback at the time was 30 years!
> 
> ...


I suggest that you check to see if your State has some type of incentive to go solar. Many do. My cousin who lived in Florida got a great deal for solar panels from a friend in the business, then through the State got some type of support for going solar. I don't remember the details, but you might want to check it out and see if there is something similar in your location.


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## Big Country1 (Feb 10, 2014)

Is now the time to invest in an Off Grid Solar System even though today's costs don't justify it? 

IMO just too be 100% off the grid, justifies itself. If funds would allow it, i would be.


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## alterego (Jan 27, 2013)

The cost to get off the grid is totally related to how much consumption you want to support. We use an average of 640 kilowatt hours per month. It would cost around 50 thousand to have a system that would provide that much electric. My average electric bill from consumers is 90 bucks. Which would be 46 years of consumers bills. The equipment will not last that long the average battery pack needs to be replaced every five years. One big enough for my usage is 8000 dollars.

Solar is not a cost viable option.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

For OPSEC reasons, you may not want the State or Feds to know that I have a full off grid system, so foregoing the tax incentive may end up being a good long term OPSEC decision but a bad financial decision. 

My plan was to pay cash for the equipment and installing it myself with the help of a trusted electrician friend. I'm still leaning that way. Where am i going wrong?


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## graynomad (Nov 21, 2014)

I've been on solar for years and am something of a solar evangalist  However even now I don't think you can justify it purely on a $ basis. But to paraphrase the credit card advert

Cost of a good DIY system that will do just about everything...$15k
Cost of not giving a toss if the grid goes down...priceless.


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## alterego (Jan 27, 2013)

I had to go get rid of some coffee. And feal bad about my post above.

To clarify I have an emotional draw to put a solar system in. I am severely disappointed in the limitations of the systems by cost. I have spoke to professional installers and considered diy. 
What do I need it for. I need it to run my well. I would like it to run the refrigerator. I would love to operate the microwave. All of these are totally cost prohibited impractical with solar.
Will it operate an led light sure. Do you need an led light to survive no.
Do you need water fresh food and food cooked to kill bacteria. Yes. 

Is it plausible to spend 50 thousand to do so. Hell no.


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

Tax incentives are for grid tie systems ONLY.

Big power draw items are expensive to set up with solar. The price of solar panels has definitely dropped even the past three years since I put in my first solar system. I prefer setting up 20amp systems with common parts spreading out the cost & when batteries might need replaced.

Keep track of places like solarblvd or get on their mailing list for deals on pallets of panels.


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

One bad thing about beeing off grid is when others lights go out and yours dont.. well... people will probably notice and remember. Ecspecially when they get really hungry. I think its better to be ongrid and have a backup for cooking/heating and so on. But lights will draw attention, if just one have them.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Good input gentlemen, I appreciate it. Graynomad, you've outlined my feelings perfectly.

I built a Passive Solar house in preparation for a conversion one day to Solar. I'm in the Southern US, so heat is my 9 month a year enemy and humidity levels are oppressive for about 10 months a year. I knew that I'd never afford a system to run all the modern comforts so my plan was to create a home where I could live comfortably. Mine is a home designed and built for the Southern US, deep porches to keep the sun out, few windows on East and West side, screened porches to capture breezes and allow for us to keep windows open during hot weather, and "dog trot" architecture to allow flow of air through the home. We also have tall ceilings with small operable transom style windows near the ceiling to allow heat to escape. 

My last quote to run everything but HVAC was approx $27k (US$). My current monthly electricity bill is about $150. As you all point out, there is no payback other than having power when the SHTF.

I think its time to get a new quote on the Solar Equipment, I feel a difficult time is near for the US Power Grid.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Swedishsocialist said:


> One bad thing about beeing off grid is when others lights go out and yours dont.. well... people will probably notice and remember. Ecspecially when they get really hungry. I think its better to be ongrid and have a backup for cooking/heating and so on. But lights will draw attention, if just one have them.


Good point Swede...but I've got that covered. My place is 1 mile down a private dirt road. I live on a tree farm of dense hardwoods with a few acres of pine. My nearest neighbor is 1 mile away. I am well prepared to greet unwanted guests.

I will assure you that there are easier targets than Slippy Lodge:68:!


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## alterego (Jan 27, 2013)

graynomad said:


> I've been on solar for years and am something of a solar evangalist  However even now I don't think you can justify it purely on a $ basis. But to paraphrase the credit card advert
> 
> Cost of a good DIY system that will do just about everything...$15k
> Cost of not giving a toss if the grid goes down...priceless.


What do you have for a well pump. Our well is 170 feet deep. And runs on 220. This is my number one want to run on solar. How do you do it.


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## alterego (Jan 27, 2013)

This thread got me going again on this subject so I started reading and Google searching. I found this from the MSU extension research published 2014.
Total installed cost ~ $10/W (Larger installations may be cheaper)
- Installed cost $50,000 for 4.3 kWh peak system
- Power recovered over 2 year period 10,000kWh
- Cost of grid power in MI : 10c/kWh
- Value of electricity generated by Compaan ~ $500/yr
- Therefore 100 years to break even. Lifetime of cells ~ 25yr
Based on these numbers, for Michigan the price of solar is currently 4-5 times higher than grid electricity


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## graynomad (Nov 21, 2014)

Short answer...I don't, because I don't have a bore.

Friend's of ours do though, dunno how deep thier bore is but they then pump maybe 100 feet (head) up to the house as well. All done with two 250W solar panels for power, and (I think) an inverter for the pump but it might be DC.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

Slippy said:


> For OPSEC reasons, you may not want the State or Feds to know that I have a full off grid system, so foregoing the tax incentive may end up being a good long term OPSEC decision but a bad financial decision.
> 
> My plan was to pay cash for the equipment and installing it myself with the help of a trusted electrician friend. I'm still leaning that way. Where am i going wrong?


I'm sure big brother is keeping tabs on who purchased a solar setup regardless of whether they used the incentive or not. No opsec left in today's world unless you pay cash to a private seller. Just my opinion. Then you have what HuntingHawk said, only for grid tie systems.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

Slippy said:


> .
> 
> I think its time to get a new quote on the Solar Equipment, I feel a difficult time is near for the US Power Grid.


Maybe you will get lucky in a bad way if you finance the setup. Maybe the grid goes down before it's been paid off...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

If you are in the higher income tax brackets and will enjoy a break on what you spend for the solar system from the FEDS and IF you live in a state with higher than normal rates (CA, NJ and Hawaii were the only 3 I recall) then go solar. Otherwise just add a small solar array to your preps for some independent power when the grid falls down.



Slippy said:


> Price of Electricity Hit Record High in U.S. in 2014 | CNS News
> 
> Like many of you I've been studying solar power for a number of years now. A few years ago (2012), I crunched the numbers to install a system to take my homestead 100% Off Grid...and the cost was overwhelming. The payback at the time was 30 years!
> 
> ...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

This is good math, let me show you "Stockton, CA" under PG&E

Install a 5kw system here is about $20,000 including permits, contractor, inverter, tie in and panels
Cost after 25% off your Federal Income taxes is $15,000 
Power created annually 5k x .80 x 5.5 / 1000 x365 = 8,030 kilowatt hours a year
Value of electricity bought by PG&E instead: 3,000 @ .35khwr and 5,030 at .28khwr = $2,450 a year

$2,450/$15,000 = 16.33% ROI = Good investment



alterego said:


> This thread got me going again on this subject so I started reading and Google searching. I found this from the MSU extension research published 2014.
> Total installed cost ~ $10/W (Larger installations may be cheaper)
> - Installed cost $50,000 for 4.3 kWh peak system
> - Power recovered over 2 year period 10,000kWh
> ...


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Arklatex said:


> I'm sure big brother is keeping tabs on who purchased a solar setup regardless of whether they used the incentive or not. No opsec left in today's world unless you pay cash to a private seller. Just my opinion. Then you have what HuntingHawk said, only for grid tie systems.


The two suppliers that I have established a relationship with are both willing to take cash and they do not ask for my name address or anything personal info. Drive to their place, pick up equipment, pay cash, drive away. I would never go "Grid Tie", ruled that out years ago.


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## Prepadoodle (May 28, 2013)

Normally, you would want to make allowances for inflation. If you finance your system, the payments stay the same while the money is worth less each year. An amount that seems like a lot now won't seem like a lot in 10 years. If you will pay cash, this obviously doesn't apply.

Another thing to keep in mind is the rising cost of energy. If your energy bill is $100 a month today, what do you think it will be in 10 years? How about in 20? A solar power system should last 25 or 30 years, the rising cost of energy has to be factored in to get an accurate picture of system costs.

It's always cheaper to reduce your usage first. For example, switching to all LED lighting is way cheaper than buying extra panels to power incandescent lights.

Batteries specifically designed for solar applications should last 10 years or more, not 5, although most new solar users will trash their first set sooner than that.

Finally, the freedom of being offgrid should be worth something. What's it worth to have the peace of mind from knowing you will have power no matter what?


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

The problem with going off the grid is that the storage batteries completely ruin the equation. Solar is all fina and practical until you try to store it locally. Until they perfect inexpensive mass-capacitors for storage, batteries are heavy, expensive, and environmentally unfriendly. 

But you could get an on the grid system, take the guvt subsidies, and add a backup system that charges off of an outlet or circuit breaker. In the event of a real apocalypse (as opposed to a short term crisis) you can switch over the outputs from the street to your own junction box easily enough. Having an on-the-grid system does not preclude you from having a local storage system.

Another interesti8ng aspect of on the grid is that you are banking your extra energy with the local power company. Now, they pay like crap if you sell energy. But if you just use your winter surplus to cover the summer months, then you are actually magnifying your savings. Prices change with the seasons, and during the summer they actually charge you more during peak hours. But when you have energy banked, price is irrelevant. You bank 1 kwh in the winter and trade it in for 1kwh in the summer, regardless of seasonal prices. 

On the grid also strengthens the energy grid, helping to prevent one of the most likely scenarios we face: brownouts & blackouts. At the time that people are pulling the most energy for their A/C units, my solar cells are at their peak output. We got a lotta solar in my neighborhood. I got like 36 panels up there.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Different reasons. I have one grid tied 2400 total watt system in CA that is grid tied and all it does is help the house avoid the expensive higher rate for too much usage. If you are in a tiered utility where you get 300 Kwhrs for .12 each, the starting at 301 you pay .18 until you reach 800 then have to pay .28 it can be really beneficial to be grid tied and avoid that high rate, and solar can't compete with the grid provided low rates. My home in NV is off grid. We don't use much batter space and opt for a generator instead.



Slippy said:


> The two suppliers that I have established a relationship with are both willing to take cash and they do not ask for my name address or anything personal info. Drive to their place, pick up equipment, pay cash, drive away. I would never go "Grid Tie", ruled that out years ago.


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## tinkerhell (Oct 8, 2014)

imo, don't attach your solar panels to your house, it might raise your property taxes.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

tinkerhell said:


> imo, don't attach your solar panels to your house, it might raise your property taxes.


The county does not have access nor permission to come to my house or on my land. They have assessed it once and that's all that they need.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

Hey, remember candidate Obama telling everyone that he would make your utility rates soar in the 2008 primary? At least he kept his campaign promise.


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## Hawaii Volcano Squad (Sep 25, 2013)

Hawaii has the most expensive electric rates in the USA


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Slippy said:


> So my question: Is now the time to invest in an Off Grid Solar System even though today's costs don't justify it? But the unknown is what we prepare for right?


I am seriously looking into this myself right now, I will be sharing what I learn.

Bottom line, I don't have power at my homestead sight yet, but the pole is at the driveway. It's going to cost several thousand dollars to get the power hooked up to the grid, so I am having to compare that price with the price of solar off-grid. Answer? Dunno yet, we are still in the research phase. Right now our #1 thing is getting as many of our perennial food producers planted as we can as quickly as possible.


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