# We Are in a New Industrial Revolution



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Ships without crew set for the seas - The Local

From shipping to logging technology is eliminating more skilled jobs than unskilled. The consequence is profound. Many unemployed do not even understand this root cause.

In past industrial revolution economies obsolete jobs were replaced with newer skilled jobs that turned out more product or service per employee.

Some might say this will happen again but might take a decade. If the count started in '09 then we are half way there.

The problem is I do not have the vision to see what there jobs will be. I have always said the rich have a large vision of scale I just cannot see.

So, if you will please point out these new jobs to me. I can see the 3 jobs at McDonalds replacing 15. What I cannot see is the opportunities for the other 12.

This is not an anti-process improvement rant.

I had no problem seeing the benefits of a global economy and free trade agreements. Such have made our standard of living far greater by reducing consumption cost per hour worked in the US.

Maybe this new robotization will bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. That can be seen in US, BMW, Toyota and many of their tier one and two supplier plants. Maybe that is the vision for new jobs.

If so the cost will be high for those that as of 2009 expected to work 10 to 15 more years at their career high salaries. Many of these are now under employed and now will work their entire life.


----------



## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

As one who recently retired after working the last 25 year on industrial equipment of a large Automotive plant I can tell you that Automation is not only replacing the worker but is making him obsolete in most to the manufacturing of an automobile. You don't have factories like in the past with 40,000 workers. Robots have mostly replaced the production workers. Think about this, a modern automotive factory with 6000 people can produce 2000 cars a day. That is equal to 3 people making an entire car a day and that also includes all that administrative work. Stamping the panels, welding them into a frame, painting, manufacturing the engine and a lot of the power train, molding the bumpers, dash and all interior panels, then assembling, testing and driving it out the door. Many factories are laying off people but are increasing production at the same time. In making the car body there are thousands of welds but the only production people that weld are for backup if a robot breaks down and even then usually the other robots will just take over its welding.

What I see happening is countries like China that now have an advantage because of their cheap labor will really be hurting as automation takes over more and more and there won't be work for them.

PS. When I was young I was a welder for a company and robots were just starting to appear, and I was told "one thing good about know how to weld is that robots will never be able to weld because they can't see. Well many years later when I retired the section I worked with had around 2000 welding robots both spot and mig welding.


----------



## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

But there are a ton of new high paying jobs created for the people that design, manufacture and program the robots. That is the jobs do not go away. The jobs shift to other sectors of the economy. (Unfortunately, most of those jobs, today, are going to folks overseas.) When debating this topic, I would argue that we should be fighting over whether we have enough people with the skills necessary to design and create the robots. (My stance is that we do not have NEARLY enough and need to rapidly increase the math, science, and engineering skills of our kids.)


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

1720, is correct. I retired from a tier two supplier in 09 and my wife from an OEM with an early retirement incentive package in '12. This while her plant announces one expansion before the last is completed.

So very many of our fellow employees have done little to nothing to prepare for retirement.


----------



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Inor, I have said to many a young buck, "learn how to program PLCs. I know a 50 year old man that is not worth... But is a good PLC programer. A job is all he has because he... His money away.


----------



## rickkyw1720pf (Nov 17, 2012)

Inor said:


> But there are a ton of new high paying jobs created for the people that design, manufacture and program the robots. That is the jobs do not go away. The jobs shift to other sectors of the economy. (Unfortunately, most of those jobs, today, are going to folks overseas.) When debating this topic, I would argue that we should be fighting over whether we have enough people with the skills necessary to design and create the robots. (My stance is that we do not have NEARLY enough and need to rapidly increase the math, science, and engineering skills of our kids.)


Yes you are correct I think we have Motoman and possible Fanuc making robots in the US but by far most robots are made in Japan. But the manufacturing and maintenance of a robots only require a fraction of the people that they replace.


----------



## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

Having skills relevant to the game is a must. Just look at the NFL. If you don't preform, someone else will and you will be gone. Same with this economy. Its prepping for survival in a way other than SHTF. If your not employable, you and your family is in a bad position.


----------



## Dr. Prepper (Dec 20, 2012)

Something that figures into this situation, in my opinion, is how and why the American labor force has become so difficult to work with. Yup manual labor jobs are going away at an alarming rate but I do not see much effort put forth in the workforce to make the shareholders want to hire them. A robot does not make the demands that a human worker does. A real biggie is health insurance. How in the world did an employer ever get involved in a worker's insurance? It's crazy. How in the world did employers ever get involved in a worker's retirement savings? It's crazy.

Oh yeah, I know, the employer felt the need to get involved when a good worker needed to be recognized and rewarded with perks. As it should be. But somehow the workers put pressure on the employer to give more and more (greed) and they soon started to make demands and threats. So a good thing backfired in the employer's face. Entitlements started popping up everywhere and the employee was hooked on perks. In fact many families spent their money so foolishly that they based their budgets on the perks. If the perks were gone they couldn't make ends meet. But they did not consider that buying a new car every 3 years or a gigantic TV in every room or 150 expensive shoes in the closet, cigarettes, expensive toys (and the list could go on and on) had anything to do with it. Labor unions make absolutely ridiculous rules and demands while spreading "hate the employer" propaganda. 

A robot has never stolen employer's property and products but billions of dollars are stolen every year by employees. Robots do not run to competitors with company secrets. Robots do not spread false rumors throughout the company that decrease productivity. And here is a biggie . . . robots do not steal company time playing on the computer. Wake up America.


----------



## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Dr. Prepper said:


> Something that figures into this situation, in my opinion, is how and why the American labor force has become so difficult to work with. Yup manual labor jobs are going away at an alarming rate but I do not see much effort put forth in the workforce to make the shareholders want to hire them. A robot does not make the demands that a human worker does. A real biggie is health insurance. How in the world did an employer ever get involved in a worker's insurance? It's crazy. How in the world did employers ever get involved in a worker's retirement savings? It's crazy.
> 
> Oh yeah, I know, the employer felt the need to get involved when a good worker needed to be recognized and rewarded with perks. As it should be. But somehow the workers put pressure on the employer to give more and more (greed) and they soon started to make demands and threats. So a good thing backfired in the employer's face. Entitlements started popping up everywhere and the employee was hooked on perks. In fact many families spent their money so foolishly that they based their budgets on the perks. If the perks were gone they couldn't make ends meet. But they did not consider that buying a new car every 3 years or a gigantic TV in every room or 150 expensive shoes in the closet, cigarettes, expensive toys (and the list could go on and on) had anything to do with it. Labor unions make absolutely ridiculous rules and demands while spreading "hate the employer" propaganda.
> 
> A robot has never stolen employer's property and products but billions of dollars are stolen every year by employees. Robots do not run to competitors with company secrets. Robots do not spread false rumors throughout the company that decrease productivity. And here is a biggie . . . robots do not steal company time playing on the computer. Wake up America.


That is 100% correct there!

The whole health insurance/employer benefits thing came out of the 1930's and 1940's and FDR's salary caps. That's right boys and girls, that great friend to the American worker, Franklin Roosevelt put wage caps on the amount a company could pay their workers during WWII. Companies, in an effort to attract the best talent, began offering benefits like health insurance to skirt the caps on compensation that FDR had put in place. Since, it has morphed into something that even the lowliest janitor has come to expect. Another example of the law of Unintended Consequences.

Excellent post Doc!


----------



## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

I had no problem seeing the benefits of a global economy and free trade agreements. Such have made our standard of living far greater by reducing consumption cost per hour worked in the US."

That sounded fancy
Then surely you'like have no problem with the 150 million that need to go to some other planet so that can be true.
The "jobs" are the end of the road ones in a failure: the acquisition, processing and disposition of extra humans.
I'm afraid those futures are gonna last awhile

Seems all we can do is provide quality products to the remainder thar can buy them until the part where those are gone too. This is not a recovery
It's a boil off with a kill back that is not normal. Does not have a "light at the end people like us can see yet.


----------



## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

A couple of points:
The minimum wage battle is helping to eliminate the non-skilled labor market. For instance, if the progressives succeed in getting $15 per hour wages for flipping hamburgers, then you can take this to the bank -- places like MikeyD's will replace the workforce with robots. It is definitely heading toward that. 

One of the biggest errors in our society today is this insane push that everyone has to go to college and the elimination of industrial arts classes in our grade schools. Not everyone is suited for going to college -- period. If truth be told, it is probably less than 50%. These youngsters instead should be eyeing skilled labor jobs, where they can actually make a good income. Expert welders, milling machine operators, cabinet makers, ... just to mention a few. WHY aren't our schools focusing on these trades? (That is a rhetorical question -- not really needing an answer, because I know the answer.)


----------



## Dark Jester (Jun 8, 2014)

Yes, technology is taking jobs that were once performed by people. It's been happening for decades. We no longer see men shoveling coal into locomotives, toll booth attendants are being replaced by scanners and self check-out at grocery stores and gas stations is the norm. Very soon, we will see order/check-out at fast food restaurants as well. 

As I see it, a large part of our labor problem is the lack of trained, skilled laborers (machinist, masons, plumbers and electricians) and college students graduating with degrees in needed disciplines (engineering, chemistry, medical/dental and most importantly, computer-oriented careers). Why? The college programs are hard and expensive, the skilled labor jobs require a higher level of skill and academic ability so the majority of students shy away from them. The ones that complete for these programs are the ones making the $$. The rest struggle for the very few, and declining number of fairly decent paying jobs that lack any real future advancement opportunity. 

Recently, I was dealing with a client that has had a big problem for a few years; the need for trained CNC Machinists. He is having to pay bonuses to guys in their 70's so they won't retire. He has NO replacements. He has now resorted to recruiting kids in high school to enter training programs he will finance.

I graduated from college, but do not think it is necessary for everyone. However, our society puts such an emphasis on college as a qualifier for one to be considered successful. Colleges are part of today's "norm" and youth see this in influential ways such as college sports on TV and they want to be a part of this tradition. So they think in order to be part of the "in" crowd, they must attend college. I decided to complete my college education one day while working a part-time summer job; hot roofing a commercial building on a sunny 95º, 70% humidity day. That was my motivation... We need to put more emphasis on the importance of skilled/technical careers.

The truth is, many, many very critical jobs do not require a four year college degree. Two year? Yes, it makes one better able to deal with the business aspect of any career. But with our horrid government controlled education system, only a few will even be able to compete for the jobs of the future that require a technical-focused career path let alone graduate from a four year college. Too many kids graduating with insufficient skill sets.


----------

