# The very scary math behind the current Ebola epidemic.



## Charles Martel (Mar 10, 2014)

Since the beginning of the current outbreak in December of last year, the number of new Ebola infections has roughly doubled every three weeks. Given the current rate of infection, experts predict that 1.1 to 1.4 million people will have been infected by the end of the year, and between 60 and 65 million will be infected by this time next year. Given current rates of expansion, a billion people will have been infected by February of 2016.

I'm not given to panic regarding infectious disease (I was never even remotely concerned about SARS, Bird Flu, or H1N1), but, I think we're currently dealing with something that has the potential to change the game for the human population of this planet. Based strictly on the math, this has the look of a deadly global pandemic. Given the high mortality rate of this particular strain of Ebola, this thing could literally wipe 50 to 90 percent of the total human population from the face of the earth. If this thing doesn't fizzle in the next 4 to 6 weeks, I believe we are in for it. 

The good news is that we have seen it coming. There is still some time left to prepare. It's time to go all in.


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## MikeyPrepper (Nov 29, 2012)

I don't think it will be the end of the world, but I do fear this ebola sh*t. I mean kinda reminds me of the black plague back in the day.



Charles Martel said:


> Since the beginning of the current outbreak in December of last year, the number of new Ebola infections has roughly doubled every three weeks. Given the current rate of infection, experts predict that 1.1 to 1.4 million people will have been infected by the end of the year, and between 60 and 65 million will be infected by this time next year. Given current rates of expansion, a billion people will have been infected by February of 2016.
> 
> I'm not given to panic regarding infectious disease (I was never even remotely concerned about SARS, Bird Flu, or H1N1), but, I think we're currently dealing with something that has the potential to change the game for the human population of this planet. Based strictly on the math, this has the look of a deadly global pandemic. Given the high mortality rate of this particular strain of Ebola, this thing could literally wipe 50 to 90 percent of the total human population from the face of the earth. If this thing doesn't fizzle in the next 4 to 6 weeks, I believe we are in for it.
> 
> The good news is that we have seen it coming. There is still some time left to prepare. It's time to go all in.


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## dannydefense (Oct 9, 2013)

Meh. 


(for the character minimum, I typeth of this inside parentheses)


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

Yea with the current leadership my give a **** meter has been steadily increasing.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

Current leadership of this nation apparently has an interest in actively participating in increasing the rate of infection exponentially. What better way to explain the actions of the Obama administration and the CDC?


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Don't discount CM's concerns. Until the powers that be shut down all travelers coming from west africa the threat to the health and safety of all Americans will be in danger


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

I guess I was aluding to that I dont think he would save his own wife from a gangrape in a max pen prison so long as he could spin prison reform. UNLESS he thought shed be of more use to him and I dont think he gives a dam about us.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

The math is/was reported earlier to be "R2" (BBC - I think) which relates to the duplication or spread of Ebola.
I have this weird feeling about this. 
I have watched this develop since March of this year and today we have a suspected case in JAX, across the river from my building.
We the people just cannot depend on the government to make "good decisions".
We the people cannot count on the media to tell us the facts.
I also read today that the SecDef is discussing a new mission for the military in dealing with Climate Change (OMG REALLY?!?!)
a-hem. I digress...
I, for one, believe this is going to be an issue for all of us.
Maybe as we fight ISIS at home on our own because our uniformed service members are overseas saving the planet.

Sounds like a season 8 opener for Walking Dead doesn't it?


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## tango (Apr 12, 2013)

I do not think the current admin wants to increase Eblos, they just don't care if it comes here as long as it does not interfere with Obama's amnesty plans.
That is why there won't be a flight ban or any serious screenings.


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

A plague for the modern age? 
I agree Charles, if they don't get a handle on this or it fizzles, we are all destined to know somebody who has died from it.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

The socialist in the White House wants to fundamentally change the US and bring her down to the level of other countries. He does not care one bit if we have the same crises that third world cesspool nations have. And if its Ebola, so be it. To him, there is no American Exceptionalism and he wants us to suffer like everybody else.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

I think Danny D is right on this one. We all seem to agree that we cannot trust the information coming from the CDC or the administration. But so far, all the information there is on Ebola is coming from the CDC. So what do we really know for sure about it? Furthermore, what can we do about it beyond just double checking our preps and strengthening the areas where each of us are weakest?

My attitude is that for now, it needs to be watched. But thus far, Obamacare has killed far more people than Ebola (even if you include the ones who died in Africa).


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Now would be the time to reach out to close neighbors for a future safe enclave.


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

SARGE7402 said:


> Now would be the time to reach out to close neighbors for a future safe enclave.


Or put up better barricades. Mine's a psycho stalker who pays entirely too much attention to me.


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

I'm no expert, but I am a Registered Nurse who currently is teaching an Infectious Diseases class. Germs (bacteria and/or viruses) need several things to spread. A host body where they reproduce, a transmission route (sneeze, semen, feces, etc) and a new host to infect. Viruses like influenza or rhino-virus (common cold) infect a host body, and reproduce quickly. They infect the next host rapidly mostly by aerosolized droplets of mucus (a sneeze). The germs then infect the next host before the first one even knew that they were sick. This is why the flu infects millions of people each year and kills upwards of 30,000 in the USA alone. 

Ebola finds a host body, and reproduces quickly. HOWEVER the host is not infectious to anyone else until the "viral load" is high enough. Then "viral shedding" occurs and the person vomits, has diarrhea, and the virus is sent to the next host. While Ebola is very deadly, it is an ineffective, slow moving virus. A "PERFECT STORM" type virus would have a long incubation period AND have the ability to infect many other hosts BEFORE the symptoms incapacitated the first host. Then it would spread itself through hundreds of other hosts. Ebola can't do that. At most, it spreads through only the few people who had contact with the first host WHILE they were infectious. This will spread the disease, but very slowly. I just don't see Ebola as a pandemic Unless it mutates into a more airborne type virus that can be spread when the person feels fine and is out in the community. What is the risk of that? Very low, epidemiologists have never witnessed a viral mutation do that...yet. 

I believe that TEOTWAWKI WILL be a pandemic. They have happened many many times before, sometimes almost causing extinction of the human race. The last one we had was the Spanish Flu epidemic during WWI. 50 MILLION people died in that one. Imagine how many would have died if air travel had been prevalent? If a disease is spread at an airport, it could infect hundreds in the airport, who all get on a plane and infect hundreds on each plane, which land at hundreds of different airports where it is spread to tens of thousands of others.....you see the problem. Yep, Ebola is nasty but doesn't have the ingredients for a pandemic. H1N1 influenza, or dozens of others not even discovered yet, they are the things that haunt my dreams.
Just My 2 cents worth....


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

First you make the assumption that as soon as the symptoms start they'll seek medical attention. Most Americans with normal flu symptoms don't stay home - much less see a doctor - until they can't stop doing the Charlie two step to the commode. Now take an ebola infected person with the same flu like symptoms. Same scenario, except now everybody that's in their work group or the grocery or library class room will now have been exposed -not to the flu - but to Ebola. Won't take very long before the health care system is over whelmedor shut down because of the safety concerns for the health care workers.

I really hope to hades that I'm wrong about this, but so far our wonderful Glorious Leader has not taken the initial steps to stop this disease in it's tracks.


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## Zed (Aug 14, 2014)

I believe God has decided the fate of 1/3rd of humans..
Diseases may ravage few countries..But most Humans will die because of Nukes!! World war 3!!


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

SARGE7402 said:


> First you make the assumption that as soon as the symptoms start they'll seek medical attention. Most Americans with normal flu symptoms don't stay home - much less see a doctor - until they can't stop doing the Charlie two step to the commode. Now take an ebola infected person with the same flu like symptoms. Same scenario, except now everybody that's in their work group or the grocery or library class room will now have been exposed -not to the flu - but to Ebola. Won't take very long before the health care system is over whelmedor shut down because of the safety concerns for the health care workers.
> 
> I really hope to hades that I'm wrong about this, but so far our wonderful Glorious Leader has not taken the initial steps to stop this disease in it's tracks.


Ah, but it is NOT the "same flu-like symptoms" Ebola's weakness is that it quickly incapacitates its victims. They have horrible fevers and bloody diarrhea and bloody vomiting. They won't be out at any Orioles playoff game with that.


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

What I find particularly disturbing is that the Administration seems to place a much higher priority on politics then on safety. That is the only reason that I can think of as to why they haven't put restrictions on people traveling from West Africa. The reasons given by the head of the CDC is ludicrous. He says that if we did that then medical teams wouldn't be able to go there to help stop it in place. How idiotic. How about special flights for medical teams with quarantines for them when they return? By the way, the head of the CDC has very little experience with contagious diseases, and for that matter, hasn't a great deal of experience being a Medical Doctor, BUT he was the head of the political organization "Doctors for Obama". 

As for the symptoms when someone first comes down with ebola, they are not always the same, and not all of victims come down with horrible fevers and diarrhea. Some of them start out with a slight elevated fever at first and an "achy" feeling when they first get it. At that point they are contagious.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

I look to other viruses and bacteria to screw the human race, not Ebola. Unless it mutates, I believed despite the Governements complete screw ups and lies, Ebola will be contained from any mass outbreak in Amerika. Its symptomology is of the type that limits it spread in a first world country and if necessary larger scale quarantine similar to the measles in the 1930's would stop it. Amerika at this point doesn't have the same social environment, taboos or uneducated (maybe) climate of Africa that currently allows mass Ebola spread. 

Aware and monitoring Ebola - definitely. Overly concerned, not at this point. If we get 10+ infections out of Dallas then my worry meter will rise. 

Now, if it mutates, all bets are off.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

FYI - The suspected ebola case in JAX was diagnosed to be unqualified for ebola testing...

Baptist: Patient doesn't meet CDC Ebola testing critera


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

Notsoyoung said:


> As for the symptoms when someone first comes down with ebola, they are not always the same, and not all of victims come down with horrible fevers and diarrhea. Some of them start out with a slight elevated fever at first and an "achy" feeling when they first get it. At that point they are contagious.


The virus sheds through the body fluids, so you would need contact with body fluids AND an open wound to get in. HIV/AIDS is infectious, it can also gotten through body fluids, BUT we feel relatively safe shaking hands with someone with AIDS. I'm NOT saying it can't be gotten through mucus, only that it is difficult compared to Influenza....Look, in a typical year just in the USA over 3 Million people get the flu and over 200,000 people are hospitalized in the USA. That is in one year. In nearly a year only 6,000 have gotten Ebola, and 4,000 deaths. Sounds like a lot, but in the epidemic world that is nothing.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

PossumPie said:


> The virus sheds through the body fluids, so you would need contact with body fluids AND an open wound to get in. HIV/AIDS is infectious, it can also gotten through body fluids, BUT we feel relatively safe shaking hands with someone with AIDS. I'm NOT saying it can't be gotten through mucus, only that it is difficult.


You are so wildly behind or "lo infomashun" that you are a danger to anyone who thinks you know one correct thing about this. 
But what you do sadly believe will soon tell you "gee shucks oh no the worst!" So you don't have to believe scientists or sane people - TV will tell you in a few days. I have figured the rhythm of the "feeding" and almost dare to "forecast" the dates....but anybody can only go so far or big trouble i guess

I'm just saying if you are clinging you just have to start settling down. Misinformation that is dangerous won't have any helpful "magical" effect. ("Magical" thought)


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## dannydefense (Oct 9, 2013)

oddapple said:


> You are so wildly behind or "lo infomashun" that you are a danger to anyone who thinks you know one correct thing about this.
> But what you do sadly believe will soon tell you "gee shucks oh no the worst!" So you don't have to believe scientists or sane people - TV will tell you in a few days. I have figured the rhythm of the "feeding" and almost dare to "forecast" the dates....but anybody can only go so far or big trouble i guess
> 
> I'm just saying if you are clinging you just have to start settling down. Misinformation that is dangerous won't have any helpful "magical" effect. ("Magical" thought)


You continue to denigrate people in these Ebola threads, followed by something unusual and generally unreadable in nature.

If you're convinced most of us are idiots and have no idea what we're talking about, which seems to be the nature of the beast -- correct me if I'm wrong -- then why don't you provide us with some facts as to why? We're listening to you right now, not the scientists, not the politicians, surely not the people who are ground zero with this particular news, because what the hell would they know anyways; it's all about you. Tell us what you know.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

dannydefense said:


> You continue to denigrate people in these Ebola threads, followed by something unusual and generally unreadable in nature.
> 
> If you're convinced most of us are idiots and have no idea what we're talking about, which seems to be the nature of the beast -- correct me if I'm wrong -- then why don't you provide us with some facts as to why? We're listening to you right now, not the scientists, not the politicians, surely not the people who are ground zero with this particular news, because what the hell would they know anyways; it's all about you. Tell us what you know.


At least for now, the fear of Ebola seems to be more dangerous than the actual disease. That may change in the future. But for now, getting all worked up over it does more harm than good.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

I'm specifically not trying to treat you as idiots.

I already said several times to do all you can to be ready for as many months as possible of home quarantine because you have a multiple pathogen profile that was preceded and will be followed by a disease which weakens you without lethality, mostly, so that when flubola comes along you are not as resistant as you were. I list pathogens and details - people hear what they want to hear and resent the rest. It is a part of the dynamics I observe here. How and how well people are coping, adapting, evaluating, choosing to arrive at baseline survivability factors that have nothing to do with flu or ebola.
It is not about me at all. It is about a complex, overwhelming series of events with which we...will be challenged all a nation can be.

But you are right. It is on track an unless herculean something happens, it will dismantle this country and destroy the populations of several others. If I "comfort" you I am lying and if I "guide" you like some of the herders, next week your astonishment will be "were you that dumb or gawd, were you in it too?" The answer to both will have to be "no" even if you are mad now.
I have said very plainly "Do what you got on here to do. This is the thing"
I know it's a lot to digest. Kind of makes flubola look smaller doesn't it?
What does my own "high powered arrogant ass" plan to do myself? Get as far away from all humans as possible and try to find underground refuge before it's too late. Or face adapting with my skill set raw on top. We are all just folks now.
It hurts me all the time yes yes not being human. Being from mars. Yes yes. But the deal is I am just not wired like you or I could not be me. I lack ways and have to struggle to identify with you because you get all these feelings and stuff I register differently and so what? I just came here head hunting and trying to see how bad it was by you. I don't have a thing where everything someone says is "adversarial to me!" I only spit back here and there because I don't really get the joke or what you get out 9f it.
As bad as it is I don't see how you can do without geeks of your own but you are self defeating in your rejection of "unfamiliar kinds of people" and the blue meanie me's play well by that.
I live feral and with animals better than you lived when you had and that is all I want to do.
Agenda 21 is a lie. After they get rid of you they Wil destroy the earth.
Hence, I worry that you going away means no more me or animals.
Hmmm. Guess that's it?
G-d speed and the very best to you! Just think very critically and be very careful. A "foolkiller" is when you are taken by what you want to hear. That's what it means.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

I do know the military reached out to you directly on purpose by being the only ones who were honest with you from the start when all others were and still are playing stupid games.
Martial law will be on soon. That was their way of communicating to you that they hope you will put somewhat more faith in them than these other insipid creatures.
That is exactly what that meant or they would not have done it. It also meant they choose to retain their integrity and patency with all efforts.

in·sip·id
inˈsipid/Submit
adjective
lacking flavor.
"mugs of insipid coffee"
synonyms:	tasteless, flavorless, bland, weak, wishy-washy; More
antonyms:	tasty
lacking vigor or interest.
"many artists continued to churn out insipid, shallow works"
synonyms:	unimaginative, uninspired, uninspiring, characterless, flat, uninteresting, lackluster, dull, drab, boring, dry, humdrum, ho-hum, monochrome, tedious, uneventful, run-of-the-mill, commonplace, pedestrian, trite, tired, hackneyed, stale, lame, wishy-washy, colorless, anemic, lifeless


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## dannydefense (Oct 9, 2013)

oddapple said:


> I'm specifically not trying to treat you as idiots.


Well, I for one am an idiot. So there's that.



oddapple said:


> I already said several times to do all you can to be ready for as many months as possible of home quarantine because you have a multiple pathogen profile that was preceded and will be followed by a disease which weakens you without lethality, mostly, so that when flubola comes along you are not as resistant as you were. I list pathogens and details - people hear what they want to hear and resent the rest. It is a part of the dynamics I observe here. How and how well people are coping, adapting, evaluating, choosing to arrive at baseline survivability factors that have nothing to do with flu or ebola.
> It is not about me at all. It is about a complex, overwhelming series of events with which we...will be challenged all a nation can be.


I so desperately want to follow you here, but I'm not sure if I am or not. I'll just say, I think everyone is entitled to their opinion, especially given the limited facts we actually have to work with. Some of us believe this is the Y2K of communicable diseases, others believe it's the welcome mat to the day of reckoning. I don't believe anyone here is trying to disseminate false information, and I don't believe anyone here is someone other than they seem. Let's keep to open dialogue and I think we'll get along great if we don't immediately presume there's ulterior motives in what an individual believes.

Or maybe I'm the plant. I mean, I'm not, but what if I was?


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

Oddapple, (apropos name,) It's funny, the people who argue with me that I'm "wrong" usually have no medical background at all. I don't know your background, but I venture to guess that it isn't an epidemiologist. You cannot argue with my facts, they are indeed facts. You MAY however argue with my assumptions, which are that the disease is too slow moving to be pandemic. If I am right, I will say "
I told you so" a year from now. If you are right, we'll most likely be dead and you can't rub it in.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

dannydefense said:


> Well, I for one am an idiot. So there's that.
> 
> I so desperately want to follow you here, but I'm not sure if I am or not. I'll just say, I think everyone is entitled to their opinion, especially given the limited facts we actually have to work with. Some of us believe this is the Y2K of communicable diseases, others believe it's the welcome mat to the day of reckoning. I don't believe anyone here is trying to disseminate false information, and I don't believe anyone here is someone other than they seem. Let's keep to open dialogue and I think we'll get along great if we don't immediately presume there's ulterior motives in what an individual believes.
> 
> Or maybe I'm the plant. I mean, I'm not, but what if I was?


I am a fairly intelligent person.. And I haven't a CLUE what he is raving and ranting about. I cannot for the life of me follow the conversation Oddapple is having... So I'll opt out of this thread.


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## Ice Queen (Feb 16, 2014)

There are several registered nurses, myself included, and other medical personnel on here who have a lot of good advice, based on fact. I hope people listen. The consensus of medical personnel that ought to know is that this will be a slow moving pandemic at first. There is plenty of time to prepare. Since we don't know how this will take shape in a developed western nation, it's hard to pinpoint things other than to say prepare for a possible period of isolation, a long period.

A few things are going wrong with the management of this in developed countries. First, it has spread to health care workers, basically rocking the premise that hygiene and strict isolation would control it. This is because it is so highly infectious, and because there was 'skimpage' on the PPE used. Secondly, given what the proper PPE costs and the forecast for the number of cases, we will lose more health care workers than we thought, due to economic constraints. Thirdly, the assumption that advanced western medicine would prevent the high case fatality rate. We are finding that the high tech procedures we do to save the life of the victim can cost the life of the care giver. Hence, it is highly likely, that advanced procedures like intubation, dialysis, ECMO etc. simply won't be done, which backs us up on the medical evolutionary scale. On the plus side, we have toilets, city water, and in general less dense housing. We have more medical care workers per capita (unless they start retiring and finding other options for work). On the downside again, we have a lot of private hospitals and Ebola could cause them to go broke. I didn't check but I wonder if health insurance policies exclude pandemic as an 'act of God'. For all that talk about how well we would handle it, we blew the first case big time. I'm just tremendously thankful that the guy from Kansas was negative.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Thank-you for dumbing this down and explaining it to us Ice Queen. (Edit: Your explanations are VERY helpful.) I do not understand squat about medicine. But I do know that I trust private hospitals and drug companies to be far more motivated and capable of handling this than the government run CDC. 

I will say the timing sure sucks though. We just got a letter from our family Doc a few weeks ago that he is retiring early due to Obamacare. So just at the time we need MORE Docs and Nurses, Obamacare is giving us less.


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## jimb1972 (Nov 12, 2012)

PossumPie said:


> Oddapple, (apropos name,) It's funny, the people who argue with me that I'm "wrong" usually have no medical background at all. I don't know your background, but I venture to guess that it isn't an epidemiologist. You cannot argue with my facts, they are indeed facts. You MAY however argue with my assumptions, which are that the disease is too slow moving to be pandemic. If I am right, I will say "
> I told you so" a year from now. If you are right, we'll most likely be dead and you can't rub it in.


 I am not going to disagree with you, but I am concerned with the number of health care providers that are contracting the disease in spite of their "protocols" with full knowledge of how deadly the disease is. It makes me question the difficulty of transmission that is being preached to all of us.


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

jimb1972 said:


> I am not going to disagree with you, but I am concerned with the number of health care providers that are contracting the disease in spite of their "protocols" with full knowledge of how deadly the disease is. It makes me question the difficulty of transmission that is being preached to all of us.


You have a good point, I have had numerous training in donning and removing PPE equipment. My personal experience is that hospitals generally provide appropriate equipment and training, but as things get fast-paced, hospitals CUT CORNERS on staffing and we had to be TOO quick taking off PPE or putting it on without triple checking, and things get missed. My FURY with the CDC/hospital is that they blame the nurse. My experience it things get crazy when we are short staffed to save money, then nurses get blamed if something goes wrong.

Don't misunderstand me, this could get VERY BAD...I'm just trying to squash some of the over-the-top paranoia based on things that are scientifically inaccurate.


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## Ice Queen (Feb 16, 2014)

I'm not 'dissing' private hospitals, just asking, will they keep working for free? I don't know how much loss they can absorb and still pay the staff?

I just heard on CNN that those 4 Ebola centers have a total of 11 actual beds. There are 19 but Omaha admits they can't fill all of their beds and care for the patients, so altho there are a total of 19 beds nationally, only 11 are functional. Oh boy. What happens when we have 1,000 cases and nurses are stuck using crappy gowns and walking around in shoes with no booties on because they followed the CDC protocol.

I am livid with the CDC protocols for PPE. All skin needs to be covered and the level of precaution needs to be increased vastly. 

We are soooo in for some very painful lessons because common sense seems to have gone out the window.


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## bigdogbuc (Mar 23, 2012)

If it's Common Core Math, everything will be fine. You don't have to have the right answer, just an explanation for how you achieved the wrong answer and you're good.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Ice Queen said:


> I'm not 'dissing' private hospitals, just asking, will they keep working for free? I don't know how much loss they can absorb and still pay the staff?
> 
> I just heard on CNN that those 4 Ebola centers have a total of 11 actual beds. There are 19 but Omaha admits they can't fill all of their beds and care for the patients, so altho there are a total of 19 beds nationally, only 11 are functional. Oh boy. What happens when we have 1,000 cases and nurses are stuck using crappy gowns and walking around in shoes with no booties on because they followed the CDC protocol.
> 
> ...


My apologies. I am not sure if you are answering my post, a different post or just stating your opinion.

Please let me restate my post in case I was not clear.

I am VERY thankful for how you explain complicated topics in simple, easy to understand language. In the real world, I talk compter-ese, not medicine-ese. Your explanations are easy to follow and convey a TON of good info. I meant my post as a compliment to you, not an argument against you. My apologies if I misstated that.

My second point was just that I trust private for-profit enterprise to solve even these types of time-sensative and life threatening problems more than I trust government. I pray that it is the private hospitals that step up and find an effective treatment, even if it costs the patient and insurance companies a bundle. I am one of those that would be financially wiped out by such an arrangement. But, at least I am somewhat confident that private enterprise would actually SOLVE the problem unlike government which just passes the buck.


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

Nowadays, especially on Survivalist-type forums it is almost impossible to try to contradict the over-the-top, paranoid, and often incorrect misinformation out there. On other boards, I have attempted to correct several extremely paranoid people who were perpetuating FALSE information. But, any dissenting opinion is met with hostility. High school drop-outs were lecturing me on 'viral load' and 'viral shedding' like they were epidemiologists. I'm sorry, a Google search for "Ebola cover-up" doesn't make you an expert on virology. 
Hospitals DO tend to think of the "bottom line" first. They DO tend to be reactionary rather than proactive. Other nurses WILL get Ebola. I no longer do hospital nursing because they short-staff the units, make nurses work in unsafe conditions, then blame them when something goes wrong. Despite all of that, we in the USA are NOT kissing corpses and washing them with bare hands like they do in Africa. Even our hurried infection control measures are miles above the dirt floor hospitals in Africa. The Ebola virus is deadly-but very slow moving. I simply am saying if we want to be cautious, ok, but the ramped up fear and paranoia is not warranted. 
As for me, I am monitoring it closely, and taking my USUAL Autumn/Winter precautions. Increased hand washing, no shaking hands with people, good nutrition, and plenty of sleep. We WILL see a pandemic that will kill a large percentage of the worlds population. It has occurred many times, and will occur again. But IMHO this is not it.


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Well we have another health worker come down with Ebola who worked in the same hospital as the first nurse who caught it. Too bad that these health workers were too stupid to realize that touching the fluids from the guy from Liberia could give them the disease..... or could it be that it actually be caught another way?


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

I don't agree with your prediction that Ebola isn't our pandemic. You say it's slow moving and while that may be the case what Ive seen posted on WHO is and incubation period of 2 - 21 days. Now I'm very sorry but 2 days isn't a slow incubation period. 

And with regards to the CDC's protocol for dealing with Ebola patients it is plainly a f - - king joke. Clearly Mr, Duncan when he was admitted was a hazardous material and his soiled linen, poop vomit and snot should have all been clearly labeled hazardous waste and treated as such. Crap lady we had stricter OSHA protocols for anyone working in and around lead based paint. And our general workers knew how to put on and take off their PPE. From the photo's I've seen you'all are treating this no more harmful than the crap that comes out of an operating room.

All one needs to look at are the pics of the crew that cleaned up the apartment. They took this deadly seriously. Texas Pres and the CDC it's like just another virus.

As for your bottom line. Compare the cost of treating two nurses who contracted Ebola with the cost of a few boxes of Tyveck suits and a couple of Positive Air Respirators and a good OSHA Decon chamber and you'll find it's cheaper to do this right


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Incubation time. Duncan Admitted 9-28-14. Nina tests positive. 10-12-14. That's only fourteen days if she contracted it on his first day. Also second nurse is only 15 days.

Seems that either they contracted it on day one or the incubation period is very short. Without knowing her time line - which I haven't seen published - it's hard to get a good handle on how long this virus incubates.


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

SARGE7402 said:


> I don't agree with your prediction that Ebola isn't our pandemic. You say it's slow moving and while that may be the case what Ive seen posted on WHO is and incubation period of 2 - 21 days. Now I'm very sorry but 2 days isn't a slow incubation period.
> 
> And with regards to the CDC's protocol for dealing with Ebola patients it is plainly a f - - king joke. Clearly Mr, Duncan when he was admitted was a hazardous material and his soiled linen, poop vomit and snot should have all been clearly labeled hazardous waste and treated as such. Crap lady we had stricter OSHA protocols for anyone working in and around lead based paint. And our general workers knew how to put on and take off their PPE. From the photo's I've seen you'all are treating this no more harmful than the crap that comes out of an operating room.
> 
> ...


I'll say it again. I believe the contamination probably happened b/c of being overworked and understaffed. They should have NEVER allowed their hurriedness to make them cut corners taking off the PPE. When we were fitted for PPEs, it took TIME to put them on correctly, and most of us failed the saccharine test the first time. You have to at some point say screw the management, I'm doing it right. You can buy $24,000 Top of the Line suits, but if you hurry taking them off, you WILL still get infected same as if you had no protection. The CDC, POTUS, Congress, all are more worried about the politics of who to blame than doing anything correctly. I listened to a seminar by a Doctor at John's Hopkins yesterday, he said the farting around may have already cost us the ballgame. Perhaps, but in a year half a million people get the Influenza, in almost a year less than 10,000 have gotten Ebola...looking at the big picture, that is slow moving. BUT getting hit by a slow moving train will kill you same as getting hit by a fast moving one so.....


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## BagLady (Feb 3, 2014)

"G-d speed and the very best to you! Just think very critically and be very careful. A "foolkiller" is when you are taken by what you want to hear. That's what it means." (as quoted by oddapple)

I am curious. This is twice I've seen you post" G-d speed", in this way. I dont get it. Why won't you type "God"?, instead of "G-d"?


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## BagLady (Feb 3, 2014)

What alarms me about the Dallas situation, is that there were 74 health care workers involved in the 1st case. I can't do that kind of math.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

incubation time can vary depending on the person's health. she didn't have high fever she hadn't reached the peak of the illness before the leathal stages. she came in as soon as she had the fever so you can talk on 4 or 5 days to your estimates. 

however it is most probable that anybody who was infected was infected prior to the quarantine

the bottom line here is the really anything is possible you could have been his first time in the hospital for all we know as opposed to on his return visit

the timeline is really difficult to sort out beyond a week or two as a virus can spread at different rates within the body


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Thanks Will,
Did you stay at the Holiday Inn Express in Thunder Bay last night?


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## dannydefense (Oct 9, 2013)

Will said:


> incubation time can vary depending on the person's health. she didn't have high fever she hadn't reached the peak of the illness before the leathal stages. she came in as soon as she had the fever so you can talk on 4 or 5 days to your estimates.
> 
> however it is most probable that anybody who was infected was infected prior to the quarantine
> 
> ...


I think were on the same page here becausethe roasted market predict's the relation. The machine litigates the military list _but_ when does the aberrant punishment condense the time?

The country purchases the trouble whilethe the list proposes the innocent control. Ebola, ftw.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

that is very odd question why do you ask?


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Thanks Will,
> Did you stay at the Holiday Inn Express in Thunder Bay last night?


that is a very odd question why do you ask?


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Will said:


> incubation time can vary depending on the person's health. she didn't have high fever she hadn't reached the peak of the illness before the leathal stages. she came in as soon as she had the fever so you can talk on 4 or 5 days to your estimates.
> 
> however it is most probable that anybody who was infected was infected prior to the quarantine
> 
> ...


No you can't add five or six days on to a finite time frame. He didn't enter isolation until the 28th. She didn't come in contact with him until the 28th.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

unfortunately we don't and won't know that.
Sept. 20, 2014 - Thomas Eric Duncan, 29, arrives in the United States from Liberia to visit family.
Sept. 26, 2014 - Duncan goes to Texas Presbyterian Health Hospital in Dallas with a fever and tells nurse he has been to Liberia. But he is sent home with antibiotics and Tylenol.

you hope that for 5 days can't be added to that.


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## BagLady (Feb 3, 2014)

dannydefense said:


> I think were on the same page here becausethe roasted market predict's the relation. The machine litigates the military list _but_ when does the aberrant punishment condense the time?
> 
> The country purchases the trouble whilethe the list proposes the innocent control. Ebola, ftw.


:lol::lol: ::clapping::LMAO!!!!!!!


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Why would the Army publish this?

U.S. Army warns of potential ?airborne? Ebola

What do they know that the CDC does not?


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

CWOLDOJAX said:


> Why would the Army publish this?
> 
> U.S. Army warns of potential ?airborne? Ebola
> 
> What do they know that the CDC does not?


I am pretty sure the U.S. Army knows a LOT the CDC does not. I know for a fact that every soldier know how to tie their own shoes. Based on the recent performance of the CDC, I would hazard a guess the same is NOT true for the CDC.


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

BagLady said:


> "G-d speed and the very best to you! Just think very critically and be very careful. A "foolkiller" is when you are taken by what you want to hear. That's what it means." (as quoted by oddapple)
> 
> I am curious. This is twice I've seen you post" G-d speed", in this way. I dont get it. Why won't you type "God"?, instead of "G-d"?


I did not see a reply, so I apologize for interrupting.
This is a good question. Some believers in God, write His name as G-d as an expression of respect. To this day Jews and some Christians will refer to God as Adonai again as a humble expression of reverence and respect for God. There are beautiful hymns and contemporary Christian songs using Adonai.


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## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

Nobody knows how to spell the Eternals name.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Good source of information.

Ebola | CIDRAP


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## NoobMom (Oct 16, 2014)

Ebola scares me. I recently left a large hospital in Atlanta after working there for 10 years. I saw MANY patient safety worries. I had to go into patient rooms to deliver medicines. I expressed my concern about exposing myself to possible germs (this was 5 years ago). I had to open a cart right next to the patient (1 foot away). They could easily sneeze on me etc.

The hospital said it was impossible to get infected in the room. We were not allowed to go into patient rooms if the patient was in isolation (MRSA, CDiff, etc). Sounds fine and dandy right? Well how do you know who will be put in isolation tomorrow? 

It happened several times that I had been delivering meds to people and they were placed in isolation the next day. Now you know they were contagious a couple of days before they realized it. This is one tiny example. I feel the most sorry for ER and ICU nurses...I saw lots of shortcuts being taken in hospitals...they are way too understaffed..and I worked at an upscale hospital...


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## indie (Sep 7, 2013)

In this episode of As The Virus Burns, we learn that several other nurses were hanging out on the plane _to_ Ohio with the latest ebola nurse. I'm so glad I believe the CDC that she couldn't be contagious without symptoms, because it would sure be risky to have five other nurses seeing all of their patients while possibly infected. Some nurses from several local hospitals were on flight with Vinson | fox8.com


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

funny only the CDC and WHO say the infected are not contagious when the symptoms aren't present. Hmmmm! She flew and wasn't contagious. Next day she was! What's wrong with this picture


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

SARGE7402 said:


> What's wrong with this picture


America is led by a fool. 2 out of 3 agree that we should ban flights from ebola central. Yet it doesn't happen and our nurses who had contact on the front line in Dallas are free to fly about the country.


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

And now we hear that the hospital has a toaster sized machine that can Identify the ebola virus with about a 90% accuracy rate in about an hour and the FDA won't let them use it.


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## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Speaking of travel...

It's being reported a lab supervisor who handled patient zero's specimens has been on a cruise ship out of Galveston for the last 5 days. They are saying she handles the specimens (what ever it might be) 19 days ago and are low risk.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

"Really really big shew" - remember ed sullivan? They wouldn't show elvis below the waist either....hmm hmm hmm


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

Arklatex said:


> America is led by a fool. 2 out of 3 agree that we should ban flights from ebola central. Yet it doesn't happen and our nurses who had contact on the front line in Dallas are free to fly about the country.
> 
> View attachment 7231


 Obama and his boy in the CDC made it clear. They did not want to restrict travel because it would impact Africa's economy and some how they though we would just let his people die.
Now the facts America is pretty much the only one pouring cash in to the research. We have had Christian doctors and health care workers there for a long time without government money. Two of those doctors were infected. Two are still alive with out the CDC we brought them home with out infecting anyone else and they are still alive.
Time to apply your critical thinking skills.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Like usual, Obama doesn't do it again. Told In 2008: Obama Administration Ignored The CDC?s Advice To Prevent An Ebola Outbreak - Fox Nation


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

dannydefense said:


> Meh.
> 
> (for the character minimum, I typeth of this inside parentheses)





ApexPredator said:


> Yea with the current leadership my give a **** meter has been steadily increasing.





CWOLDOJAX said:


> The math is/was reported earlier to be "R2" (BBC - I think) which relates to the duplication or spread of Ebola.
> I have this weird feeling about this.
> I have watched this develop since March of this year and today we have a suspected case in JAX, across the river from my building.
> We the people just cannot depend on the government to make "good decisions".
> ...


the Pentagon has had plans for climate change contingencies for years now it's nothing new


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

dannydefense said:


> Meh.
> 
> (for the character minimum, I typeth of this inside parentheses)





ApexPredator said:


> Yea with the current leadership my give a **** meter has been steadily increasing.





Piratesailor said:


> I look to other viruses and bacteria to screw the human race, not Ebola. Unless it mutates, I believed despite the Governements complete screw ups and lies, Ebola will be contained from any mass outbreak in Amerika. Its symptomology is of the type that limits it spread in a first world country and if necessary larger scale quarantine similar to the measles in the 1930's would stop it. Amerika at this point doesn't have the same social environment, taboos or uneducated (maybe) climate of Africa that currently allows mass Ebola spread.
> 
> Aware and monitoring Ebola - definitely. Overly concerned, not at this point. If we get 10+ infections out of Dallas then my worry meter will rise.
> 
> Now, if it mutates, all bets are off.


new strain of Ebola has had over 300 mutations as of September. I am guessing you mean mutates to become airborne as opposed to just mutated.

this thing is really not much different than smallpox and can be contained and eradicated given enough time.

without rehashing what you said there is a very low threat level but a very high cost potential.

were really only looking at one and fifty thousand people in West Africa if that maybe one in every 200dad and maybe twice as many infected meaning that they are me from future outbreaks of the same strain.

the important thing to note is well they may be immune that does not mean they cannot carry Ebola underbody clothing so on and so forth. well these workers in Africa me feel more relax knowing they won't get sick working with these people the need to exercise a high degree of personal security or at least disposable decontamination methods remains Ohio requirements because they can still carry the virus on themfor at least several hours after exposure depending on the conditions.

we're talking in the terms of hundreds of millions of dollars right now where is the fight against Isis may run into the billions of dollars you will turn itself will undoubtedly run billions and billions of dollars is something of note that you know one and fifty thousand odds America one in 500,000 odds currently one in 150 million odds or something along those lines isn't much of an issue it becomes an issue when it starts getting to the point of 1 in 100,000 then you talking about perhaps three or four thousand mericans the die but even at those levels. Still less than the flu

we're still well below seasonal flu deaths you know there could be 400 tests in America from this and it would be comparable to what the flu does to America every year

so why yes this could be a threat that's not a threat in the short term hit something me crop up you know happy year from now or a year from now but for now people shouldn't really be too worried caution is always advised not just when you think you're going to get killed but you need to plan before you killed so well you may want to increase your level of such as using an n95 you know it's not for you not for sehri at this point but if you don't want to roll the dice on a 50 50 chance of living should you catch it then bye bye all means do so because you have a higher chance of dying from the flu which very much is going to be around and then 9500 help with that and by all means get your vaccinations if that worried just realize that if there's any metallic adjuviants with you so I could be bad


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Generally speaking rule of thumb used to be that "what nature made stayed" and not so much so with the contrived. 
Not sure if that still holds, but hope so ~


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

Will said:


> the Pentagon has had plans for climate change contingencies for years now it's nothing new


In my 25 years on active duty, was never trained or expected to train others about anything other than bad guy and their machines. The years that the folks in the puzzle palace have been preparing for climate change must been since I retired in 1998.

I believe you, I'm just saying it must have been since the inventor of the Internet, "Veep Igore", has been beating his drum.


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