# Why I'm a Peak Oil Denier



## Ripon

I don't believe in the peak oil theory. Why
Cramer: Oil decline obscured important discovery

Stories like this just keep happening. The facts are clear. Not all the oil in this world has been found yet. Also we can make fuel out of crops. If oil were $150 a barrel some crops are actually more profitable as fuel then food. Hence there is a dollar cap on oil.

I'm not sure what the agenda of peak oil advocates are? I just don't believe anyone alive today will see the end oil.


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## paraquack

And your point is? I agree.


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## Jeep

I think your right. I won't even see the end of the Bakken field more than likely


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## Chipper

Neighbor that rents my field says he won't waste the time and fuel to pick the corn this year. Plow it under in the spring. Bushel price is below his break even point so he'll just collect the insurance. Could be used for food but ethanol prices are down so why bother, no money to be made. 

Maybe we need to get energy from something besides a food crop. I guess we will just let the 3rd world countries starve because the money just isn't there. Ethanol what a great idea.


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## Jeep

I think Ethanol itself was a great idea. What they did with it is just stupid.


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## Camel923

I read something not long back that the earth naturally generates oil as opposed to it being limited to dead things from past millennia. Interesting if true.


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## Jeep

Isn't oil from fossils


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## jro1

Jeep said:


> Isn't oil from fossils


....and those who did not survive the great flood


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## paraquack

Fossils are tissue recreations cause by minerals replacing cellular structures. Or my physics professor


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## Jeep

So the term fossil fuels is not accurate ?


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## bigwheel

Pretty interesting read on the topic right here. 
What If Crude Oil Is Likely NOT Fossil Fuel! Not Created From Dead Dinosaurs and Plant Life? Likely Is Available In Continuous, Almost Endless Supply


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## Inor

I thought I read somewhere (I do not recall where), they had "engineered" a microbe that excreted some kind of petroleum that could be refined cheaply into gasoline as well.


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## Old SF Guy

Jeep said:


> So the term fossil fuels is not accurate ?


What???and all this time I thought I was driving around on T-rex 83 octaine?.


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## Denton

I don't buy into the peak oil crap, either.

Mind you, I am not a scientist, and it has been many years since I slept at a Holiday Inn Express, but I've read a little. Sure, I skipped over the big words, but you don't see congress getting stoned for that, do you? After all, you have to pass the bill to see what is in it.

I believe oil is a product of processes taking place deep within the earth, and that the oil percs up to the upper crust. I believe this is why old sites can be reopened, years later.

It is my uneducated, knee-jerk belief that peak oil is as hokey as man-made climate change, and probably created for the same reasons.


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## jimb1972

Chipper said:


> Neighbor that rents my field says he won't waste the time and fuel to pick the corn this year. Plow it under in the spring. Bushel price is below his break even point so he'll just collect the insurance. Could be used for food but ethanol prices are down so why bother, no money to be made.
> 
> Maybe we need to get energy from something besides a food crop. I guess we will just let the 3rd world countries starve because the money just isn't there. Ethanol what a great idea.


Record crop this year, if anything ethanol is helping prop the price up to what it is.


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## bigwheel

Got to agree with you jimb1972. If it wasn't for the tree huggers forcing us to burn ethanol in the gas to ruin our cars..farmer brown might could afford to feed some to his pigs and cows and the price of groceries wouldnt be so high. The Lord gave us ethanol for drinking purposes.


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## Ripon

There is some research going on with algae but its no where near as affordable as wheat grass and other bio fuels. The thing about algae that "should" be paid attention too is on sewage plants. If they were to abandon tertiary treatment of waste water in major cities and simply pipe the waste to a vast property where it could be held in ponds (open) those ponds would grow algae they could harvest bio fuel mass from, but the cost to set up is high and the outcome not competitive with $4 a gallon - if we (heaven forbid) get to $7.50 a gallon that kind of option will be viable. Again this flies in the face of peak oil in that we'd actually reach the point where its too expensive to abstract (or make).



Inor said:


> I thought I read somewhere (I do not recall where), they had "engineered" a microbe that excreted some kind of petroleum that could be refined cheaply into gasoline as well.


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## terranda

i dont agree with peak oil because solar tech is improving so rapidly. I think if this was really an issue the resources dedicated to finding replacements would be SO huge. I think that improved technology will solve this problem. Hopefully in time. In Germany they use more alternative fuels than fossil fuels.


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## Jeep

Hi Terranda , please find the introductory page and properly introduce yourself please and thank you.


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## big paul

I have never met an American yet that didn't think oil would last forever!!!


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## Slippy

I predict we'll nuke this wonderful place we call Earth or The Lord will return before we run out of oil. The term "peak oil" is media made-up bull shat just like "global warming", bullying" and other such nonsense.

The important question is...Who's watching some football today!


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## Doomwriter

I used to be a big Peak Oil "fan" before the 2008 run-up in oil prices, but I'm not a big believer of it now. The main worry is demand outstripping the global production of oil, but with demand in check, even that's not happening. There's a LOT of oil yet to be found, without a doubt - enough for my lifetime anyways.

I sure do mis the days of sub-$1 gas though.  Maybe China will have depression and cut demand so prices will fall to $30 a barrel again - sure would be nice.


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## tinkerhell

There may be a shortage in oil approaching, but that is not the case with coal. The world supply of coal is estimated at 300 years, and that only includes the reserves that we've logged through exploration.

The technology for coal by far exceeds our practices. We could turn it into a slurry and pump it down a pipeline but we don't need to so long as oil is affordable.


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## ralfy

Peak oil is not about reserves but about the maximum rate of production. That will happen no matter what one believes in. The main causes are the scientific facts that the amount of oil in a field is limited (and the amount of oil on earth is limited) and gravity (which means most oil cannot be extracted cheaply).

The results:

World oil discoveries peaked in 1964.

U.S. conventional production peaked in 1970.

Global oil production per capita peaked in 1979.

Global conventional production peaked starting 2005.

Speculators gamed the system, causing prices to shoot up to $150, then plummet to $30 as the global economy crashed.

Prices rose steadily once more as the global economy "recovered" through bailouts.

U.S. shale production was then used to meet rising demand, and only because oil prices went up.

Quantitative easing started unwinding last year, causing oil and 20 other commodity indices to crash early this year.

Oil prices are now rising slowly but U.S. rig counts are dropping because prices are too low.

Shale oil is expected to peak by 2020, with natural gas taking over.

The global middle class has been rising, which means higher demand from many countries.

All of these point to peak oil in a global economy with large amounts of credit.


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## Slippy

Sounds like some socialist liberal bullshat...



ralfy said:


> Peak oil is not about reserves but about the maximum rate of production. That will happen no matter what one believes in. The main causes are the scientific facts that the amount of oil in a field is limited (and the amount of oil on earth is limited) and gravity (which means most oil cannot be extracted cheaply).
> 
> The results:
> 
> World oil discoveries peaked in 1964.
> 
> U.S. conventional production peaked in 1970.
> 
> Global oil production per capita peaked in 1979.
> 
> Global conventional production peaked starting 2005.
> 
> Speculators gamed the system, causing prices to shoot up to $150, then plummet to $30 as the global economy crashed.
> 
> Prices rose steadily once more as the global economy "recovered" through bailouts.
> 
> U.S. shale production was then used to meet rising demand, and only because oil prices went up.
> 
> Quantitative easing started unwinding last year, causing oil and 20 other commodity indices to crash early this year.
> 
> Oil prices are now rising slowly but U.S. rig counts are dropping because prices are too low.
> 
> Shale oil is expected to peak by 2020, with natural gas taking over.
> 
> The global middle class has been rising, which means higher demand from many countries.
> 
> All of these point to peak oil in a global economy with large amounts of credit.


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## Maine-Marine

Camel923 said:


> I read something not long back that the earth naturally generates oil as opposed to it being limited to dead things from past millennia. Interesting if true.


it is not true....the planet would have to use SOMETHING to turn into oil.... remember the laws of science... "The First Law of Thermodynamics" matter is neither created or destroy


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## Maine-Marine

I believe in peak oil... or I should say I believe that we will reach a point where we can not pump as much as we did before and the demand will out strip the need.

There is a limited supply, even if we have not discovered all of it, we will at some point use it up. (or more likely as mentioned before the Lord will return)

There is more Water then there is Oil and we are starting to have clean water problem

--------------
Oil depletion is the decline in oil production of a well, oil field, or geographic area.[1] The Hubbert peak theory makes predictions of production rates based on prior discovery rates and anticipated production rates. Hubbert curves predict that the production curves of non-renewing resources approximate a bell curve. Thus, according to this theory, when the peak of production is passed, production rates enter an irreversible decline.[2][3]

The United States Energy Information Administration predicted in 2006 that world consumption of oil will increase to 98.3 million barrels per day (15,630,000 m3/d) (mbd) in 2015 and 118 million barrels per day in 2030.[4] With 2009 world oil consumption at 84.4 mbd,[5] reaching the projected 2015 level of consumption would represent an average annual increase between 2009 and 2015 of 2.7% per year.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oil_depletion


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## ralfy

Slippy said:


> Sounds like some socialist liberal bullshat...


More like physics.


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## Slippy

ralfy said:


> Peak oil is not about reserves but about the maximum rate of production. That will happen no matter what one believes in. The main causes are the scientific facts that the amount of oil in a field is limited (and the amount of oil on earth is limited) and gravity (which means most oil cannot be extracted cheaply).
> 
> The results:
> 
> World oil discoveries peaked in 1964.
> 
> U.S. conventional production peaked in 1970.
> 
> Global oil production per capita peaked in 1979.
> 
> Global conventional production peaked starting 2005.
> 
> Speculators gamed the system, causing prices to shoot up to $150, then plummet to $30 as the global economy crashed.
> 
> Prices rose steadily once more as the global economy "recovered" through bailouts.
> 
> U.S. shale production was then used to meet rising demand, and only because oil prices went up.
> 
> Quantitative easing started unwinding last year, causing oil and 20 other commodity indices to crash early this year.
> 
> Oil prices are now rising slowly but U.S. rig counts are dropping because prices are too low.
> 
> Shale oil is expected to peak by 2020, with natural gas taking over.
> 
> The global middle class has been rising, which means higher demand from many countries.
> 
> All of these point to peak oil in a global economy with large amounts of credit.





ralfy said:


> More like physics.


I'm in too good of a mood to debunk every one of your line items above, but suffice it to say that "physics" does not apply to any of what you posted above.

By the way ralfy, tell us a little bit about yourself.


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## paraquack

By 2020 the aliens will be here and show us how to harness all the free hot air 
coming out of DC to make electricity.


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## Denton

Maine-Marine said:


> it is not true....the planet would have to use SOMETHING to turn into oil.... remember the laws of science... "The First Law of Thermodynamics" matter is neither created or destroy


It isn't dead dinosaurs or rotted vegetation. Yes, the first law of thermodynamics applies, but that doesn't mean it applies to oil production as one might think.

That is to say, the law does not negate what Camel said.


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## Denton

ralfy said:


> More like physics.


Actually, that was economics and politics, not physics.


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## Slippy

If someone wanted America to Fail...


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## Medic33

I believe in peak oil about as much as I believe in the pansy arse hybrid auto they keep putting out they have the tech to put out some really impressive stuff both the oil co and auto corps are in bed together


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## PaulS

We must accept that the crude oil in the world will eventually run out.
We have the technology to make high grade fuels that mimic in every way the fossil fuels that we rely on now, and we can make it for less than #3 per gallon.
We also have the means and technology to make alcohol for the cost of materials plus about $0.10 a gallon. Some crops are better than others for making alcohol. Corn is not close to the best.
We have the technology and the means to use wind and solar power to power much of this countries needs with either on and using both we could have a surplus of power.
None of these will happen in the near future because there is little demand.


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## Ripon

While I accept that fossil fuels will run out I don't accept its in the life time of anyone alive today. That does not mean we should be irresponsible but a simple 50 year plan to replace it with 2% renewable a year would be sufficient. The problem with such a plan is that efficiencies just keep getting better for fossil fuels and that puts off an alternative.

While I have made good and usable bio diesel and think it's a fine sustainable product for my little farm I can not imagine doing so on a national scale when the world doesn't have enough food. Using "food" to create energy that can be gotten from affordable fossils is not practical. Sure there could be even more efficiencies in farming, we could grow more, but then at what cost does it come to feed a world population. And yes we could care less of those beyond our border, but for how long with an open border?

Wind I'm not sold on and don't know it. Solar I do believe can be a replacement for nuclear (first) and then natural gas second, but coal probably last,



PaulS said:


> We must accept that the crude oil in the world will eventually run out.
> We have the technology to make high grade fuels that mimic in every way the fossil fuels that we rely on now, and we can make it for less than #3 per gallon.
> We also have the means and technology to make alcohol for the cost of materials plus about $0.10 a gallon. Some crops are better than others for making alcohol. Corn is not close to the best.
> We have the technology and the means to use wind and solar power to power much of this countries needs with either on and using both we could have a surplus of power.
> None of these will happen in the near future because there is little demand.


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## ralfy

Slippy said:


> I'm in too good of a mood to debunk every one of your line items above, but suffice it to say that "physics" does not apply to any of what you posted above.
> 
> By the way ralfy, tell us a little bit about yourself.


Actually, it does. The scientific facts involve gravity and the point that oil is not an infinite resource.


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## ralfy

Denton said:


> Actually, that was economics and politics, not physics.


No, those two influence the effects of peak oil. They don't negate scientific facts.


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## ralfy

Medic33 said:


> I believe in peak oil about as much as I believe in the pansy arse hybrid auto they keep putting out they have the tech to put out some really impressive stuff both the oil co and auto corps are in bed together


Actually, the two counter each other. That is, tech will "save" us and avoid what is inevitable.

Also, companies try not to raise the issue of peak oil for obvious reasons. But they will do so in reports to stakeholders.


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## ralfy

PaulS said:


> We must accept that the crude oil in the world will eventually run out.
> We have the technology to make high grade fuels that mimic in every way the fossil fuels that we rely on now, and we can make it for less than #3 per gallon.
> We also have the means and technology to make alcohol for the cost of materials plus about $0.10 a gallon. Some crops are better than others for making alcohol. Corn is not close to the best.
> We have the technology and the means to use wind and solar power to power much of this countries needs with either on and using both we could have a surplus of power.
> None of these will happen in the near future because there is little demand.


Actually, we don't, and that's because of energy returns.

That's why rig counts are dropping as oil prices are still low. That's also why we had to resort to shale oil in the first place. Wind and solar power not only have low returns but even require oil for mining, manufacturing, and transport.

Finally, demand is not dropping but rising. That's because most of the world's population want middle class conveniences, too.


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## ralfy

Ripon said:


> While I accept that fossil fuels will run out I don't accept its in the life time of anyone alive today. That does not mean we should be irresponsible but a simple 50 year plan to replace it with 2% renewable a year would be sufficient. The problem with such a plan is that efficiencies just keep getting better for fossil fuels and that puts off an alternative.
> 
> While I have made good and usable bio diesel and think it's a fine sustainable product for my little farm I can not imagine doing so on a national scale when the world doesn't have enough food. Using "food" to create energy that can be gotten from affordable fossils is not practical. Sure there could be even more efficiencies in farming, we could grow more, but then at what cost does it come to feed a world population. And yes we could care less of those beyond our border, but for how long with an open border?
> 
> Wind I'm not sold on and don't know it. Solar I do believe can be a replacement for nuclear (first) and then natural gas second, but coal probably last,


Too late. Conventional production started peaking in 2005. That's why we are now resorting to shale oil, and even that will peak after only a few years.


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## Ripon

Not sure I understand your comment sorry. The number of continued announcements of new supplies hasn't ended. England, Australia, and even Greece have all had recent "discoveries" of new supplies. Even California's wacky enviro refused to ban fracking because of what it can deliver there.



ralfy said:


> Too late. Conventional production started peaking in 2005. That's why we are now resorting to shale oil, and even that will peak after only a few years.


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## Medic33

hey I saw Jurassic park, so major fail.


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## Medic33

oooohhhhh fracking bad very bad me no liky fracking


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## PaulS

Fracking in California - GOOD! It will lubricate the faults and reduce the severity of earthquakes..... unless it actually causes the BIG one. Either way WE win!


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## ralfy

Ripon said:


> Not sure I understand your comment sorry. The number of continued announcements of new supplies hasn't ended. England, Australia, and even Greece have all had recent "discoveries" of new supplies. Even California's wacky enviro refused to ban fracking because of what it can deliver there.


More details here:

http://www.prepperforums.net/forum/...828-why-i-m-peak-oil-denier-3.html#post296578


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## ralfy

PaulS said:


> Fracking in California - GOOD! It will lubricate the faults and reduce the severity of earthquakes..... unless it actually causes the BIG one. Either way WE win!


Unconventional production is inevitable because global conventional production has barely gone up. The problem is that with low prices rig counts have been dropping. Also, the EIA reports that shale oil production will peak soon.


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## Ripon

I guess you ignore the realities of new findings. Your belief is, because someone told you so, that findings of new oil peaked in 64. So what? New findings in the last 5 years alone add decades to the life of oil production and we won't even tap some (ANWAR) out of sheer stupidity. Shale production may cost more but not so much more that it's ineffective. Calling it out for being less than "conventional" is ridiculous since the cost at the pump is barely a quarter different. Sorry that world ending theory of some lunatic fringe is why I'm a denier.


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## Ripon

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-mobil-says-oil-discovery-off-guyana-significant-194037829.html That is this years

Crude oil found off Falkland Islands ? Alexander's Gas and Oil Connections Also this year

NEWS | Pemex Reports Its Largest Oil Find in 5 Years in Gulf of Mexico | Rigzone Biggest find in just 5 years and reported this week

NEWS | Schlumberger Estimates 271 Million Barrels of Oil per Square Mile at HH-1 | Rigzone Found a few years ago, reported how big this past week. Enough to supply 10-15% of England for 30 years. Not even touched yet

This list is very long. Search oil discoveries. I know it's hard for peakers to recognize science and truth are not on their side but them are the facts..


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