# The most likely disaster is one few prep for... what is it? Read on.



## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

I work as a volunteer on our county's emergency management committee, and the #1 thing we prep for is something I don't hear anybody talking about... probably because it's not sexy, doesn't require guns or long-term storage and other fun and interesting stuff...

Our number one worry, even in this small rural county, is a chemical disaster.

We have a main line of a national railroad (think BNSF, CSX, Canadian National, Norfolk Southern, Union Pacific) who have trains hauling God-only-knows what-all in them. We have two highways that have trucks hauling God-only-knows what-all in them, plus we have chemical plants & fertilizer plants and ammonia storage facilities, etc.

It's not a matter of "if" there is a toxic spill, it's a matter of WHEN. We've actually had one in the last 25 years that caused evacuation of an entire town for a couple of days...

The key to being prepped is to have proper respiratory and chemical protection that you can use during a bug-out... this isn't a long-term threat, it's one of those where people who would normally be bug-in people will want to bug-out for a couple of days (which is why even bug-inners need a bug-out bag). If you are downwind of a chemical fire, that can be a very bad thing. 

Just some grist for your mill.


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## cdell (Feb 27, 2014)

That seems like a good plan. A person just has to look at the derailment that happened in Lac Megantic (spelling?), Quebec to see what can go wrong in a big hurry.


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## Kauboy (May 12, 2014)

Man, you've uncovered one of my fears.
We live less than a mile from the tracks. The major highway is just a bit farther from it.
I've looked at this aspect, but haven't taken a single real step toward dealing with it.
The cost has been my #1 factor. Acquiring the equipment to keep my family safe would be expensive.
I need to put more focus into this.

Thanks for bringing it up.


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## Arklatex (May 24, 2014)

Slightly off topic but earlier this year an explosion happened out here in the arklatex. Not many people realized that this place had over 6 million pounds of haphazardly stored propellant. It was an eye opener.

http://m.ksla.com/ksla/pm_/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=od:oxrTfRtw


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

HazMat is a scenario, whence the "rule of thumb" comes into play. If your thumb can cover your view of the operational area, you're still too close. A tell-tale, tongue-in-cheek expression regarding a hazmat scene, is to "Look for the flopping, blue polyester", meaning that LE tend to saunter into an area that isn't safe.

Radioactive, reactive, flammable, explosive, biologics, oxidizers, toxins, infectious agents, corrosives....and a host of other miscellaneous crap, that all can affect directly and indirectly. While some my want to put up heavy gauge plastic with staples and duct tape, there is no way to prevent something to penetrate and permeate every nook and cranny of one's home. God forbid if the ground water becomes contaminated.

Responders fully encapsulate to mitigate the problem, but such has its limitations. All that anyone else is able to effectively do, is to provide themselves time and distance from the affected area.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Back in ILL I live about 5-6 miles North of a large rail system and was a little concerned about spills, etc. Being north of the system I was a tad less concerned than I am now. Down here, I live about three miles due east of a main rail line. Every time I go west to the main interstate highway, I see long trains moving in both directions and they carry hundreds of tank cars.
At present, I am not prepared. I can only hope that being about 600 higher in elevation will help me. The wife thinks that the investment in a NBC mask system is totally nuts. Like some of the others here, I may have to have a pair sent to a friends house. But even if I have a pair, am I supposed to carry them in the car? The house? Or both which means 2 pair.

What about if friends are over. I could just see myself sitting down with 5-6 friends during the Super Bowl and the S.A.M.E. radio goes off that there is a rail disaster west of me and cloud of toxic something is heading my way. Should I get up and get my mask and tell everyone they should leave so I don't have to clean up the dead bodies, or tell them to leave NOW and then get my mask on?

Here's one place I've been looking at.
DP (Domestic Preparedness) Gas Mask - Approved Gas Masks


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## Prepadoodle (May 28, 2013)

I agree with your specific threat assessment. If you live in an area where a chemical emergency is likely, it would be foolish not to have some means of surviving one. I suspect many people are (or were) unaware of this danger.

In more general terms, we should be ready for those things most likely to actually happen. For example, most of us will face a week-long power outage sometime in the next 10 years. Having supplies of food and water to get you through this kind of event is just common sense and doesn't require that much time, money, or effort.

Considering whether or not to prep for any specific threat is a matter of looking at the chances of it happening vs the cost (in time, money and effort) of being ready for it vs the cost of NOT being ready for it. Let's take a look at an EMP emergency as an example...

In 1859, we were hit with a coronal mass ejection. This event caused minimal damage, mostly because the only real electrical system in place at the time was the telegraph network, which was effectively knocked out all over America and Europe. Some experts suggest that this type event, if it were to happen today, could knock out the power grid for up to 7 YEARS! Obviously, this would be devastating on many levels.

So what are the odds of this happening anytime soon? NASA estimates the chance of another natural EMP event like this by 2022 at 12%. _Source: Phillips, "Near Miss: The Solar Superstorm of July 2012" (NASA.gov)_ Like the chemical emergency, it's not a matter of IF, but WHEN.

But coronal mass ejections aren't the only possible source of massive EMPs. The can also be caused by detonating a nuclear bomb high up in the sky. In 2004, the Russians quietly informed us that North Korea was trying to recruit its nuclear scientists in order to develop such a bomb. That was 10 years ago. How far have they gotten on this project? Nobody knows.

The threat of a chemical spill is real, but the effects would be short term. Yes, you should have a mask if you live in an area where such a spill is likely. And yes, most areas fit this description. I would rate the likelihood of this happening in MY area in the next 10 years at less than 2%. Still, the cost of being ready is slight, and the cost of _not_ being ready is high, so might as well have a mask on hand.

On the other hand, I would rate the risk of an EMP event in the next 10 years at somewhere around 15%. The cost of not being prepared would be very high... literally a matter of life and death, but the cost of getting ready for it is very high too.

I don't want to sidetrack this thread into a discussion of the EMP threat. I brought it up as an example of how one can handle threat assessments and assign priorities to their preps.

Great post Salt-N-Pepper, thanks!


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## CWOLDOJAX (Sep 5, 2013)

JAX had a train car tip over downtown earlier this year. A rail car holding a few thousand gallons of ethanol tipped over about 4 blocks from my building. As you could imagine a bzillion first responders were on the scene within minutes. After all it was downtown AND right next to CSX national headquarters.

However, out of the city limits, response is a completely different matter. The spill above happened at zero dark early in the mornin'. 
Good post. 

I looked, briefly for the hazmat codes on the rail cars and trucks but just don't have time for that right now. Would be good to share that.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Prepadoodle said:


> I don't want to sidetrack this thread into a discussion of the EMP threat. I brought it up as an example of how one can handle threat assessments and assign priorities to their preps.
> 
> Great post Salt-N-Pepper, thanks!


We focus our prepping (other than some long-ago-completed minor chemical prepping for a quite-real everyday... albeit short term... threat) on EMP with a secondary emphasis on earthquake preparedness since our main residence is in the fringe of the New Madrid area of major damage... (our BOL is not).

Why?

Because, due to the way our society & economy works, EMP is just about the worst case scenario, and with a few exceptions, if you prep for an EMP you are pretty much covering just about anything else that could happen (financial collapse, civil unrest, looting, transportation issues, failure of the medical system, etc.) About the only other thing we pay attention to is pandemic, but again that dovetails back into our chemical protection (isolation barriers).

To me, EMP may not be an extinction level event but it will be the end for 80-90 percent of the population of the US within 3 years. And... as you say... it's WHEN, not IF.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> I work as a volunteer on our county's emergency management committee, and the #1 thing we prep for is something I don't hear anybody talking about... probably because it's not sexy, doesn't require guns or long-term storage and other fun and interesting stuff...
> 
> Our number one worry, even in this small rural county, is a chemical disaster.
> 
> ...


Your premise is wrong ...Yes it could happen..but we HAVE HAD more cases of hurricanes, tornadoes, wars, social unrest, government overthrows, black friday stampedes, pandemics, epidemics, etc................ then we have had chemical train wrecks...train wrecks would not even make the top 100


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Maine-Marine said:


> ...Yes it could happen..but we HAVE HAD more cases of ...black friday stampedes............ then we have had chemical train wrecks...train wrecks would not even make the top 100


You can rest assured that ole Slippy will not be involved in a Black Friday Stampede. It had been many years since I went shopping on the Friday after Thanksgiving but about 4 or 5 years ago my brother talked me into going out and buying some ammo on black Friday. I figured what the hell, so I went with him. I fought the urge to kill everyone in the store for and finally grabbed some ammo checked out and left. I will most likely NEVER leave my property on the day after Thanksgiving.

What a circus of idiots.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

That's why I live back in the hills. Trains and interstates are many miles away.


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## A J (Oct 16, 2014)

Wondering,

If there is a place that we could ask about the cargo that travels down a RR near our homes? Would the sheriff office know? Are the RR companies required to file some sort of MSDS with the communities they haul dangerous cargo through?

We have a RR track about 1 mile North of us. 99% of cars contain auto's etc, but I've seen the occasional tanker car.

AJ


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> Your premise is wrong ...Yes it could happen..but we HAVE HAD more cases of hurricanes, tornadoes, wars, social unrest, government overthrows, black friday stampedes, pandemics, epidemics, etc................ then we have had chemical train wrecks...train wrecks would not even make the top 100


Perhaps where you live... I don't live in the city, I don't live on the coast, we haven't had a war here since... ummm... pre-hostory, we haven't had any social unrest here, the government hasn't been overthrown here, we are 30 miles from the nearest stoplight, yadda yadda yadda...

We have tornados, but what's to prep for? Go into the cellar, done. Pandemic? OK, the same protection gear as for a chemcial problem... earthquake? Yeah, we prep for that, that's why I bought my BOL far enough away that it's not on the same subsoil zone as New Madrid...

Last train derailment? About 2 months ago. Before that? 8 years. Before that? I've lived here 35 years and there have been 6 major derailments within my county alone.

People in the city live within how many miles of train tracks? Interstates? Any guesses how much chemical is moving around you?

I can't see how ANYBODY can live in a city, it's beyond me but I recognize some people don't mind the congestion, the filth, the crime, the noise, and the fact that you never see the stars at night... your choice... but please recognize that for those of us who don't live in the city, and there are a LOT of us... those other issues are, frankly, just not a big deal. I don't live within 700 miles of a coast, a hurricane means an inch of rain after it's blown out, and tidal waves are just not a concern for me.

Please note that I say "Our number one worry, even in this small rural county, is a chemical disaster..." and we have one HELL of a lot less of the stuff around us than folks in the city do.

As always, your millage will vary.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

BTW I have interesting plans for Black Friday weekend, and I assure all they have NOTHING to do with shopping.


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## jimb1972 (Nov 12, 2012)

A J said:


> Wondering,
> 
> If there is a place that we could ask about the cargo that travels down a RR near our homes? Would the sheriff office know? Are the RR companies required to file some sort of MSDS with the communities they haul dangerous cargo through?
> 
> ...


The railroads don't make that type of cargo public because it would make it a convenient terrorist target. Look for square placards on the tank cars, placards are required on all hazardous material shipments. The ones you want to watch out for are the inhalation hazard ones.


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

"The most likely disaster" for whom? Nearest RR tracks to me are atleast 15 miles in any direction.


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## survival (Sep 26, 2011)

I carry several NBC suits and gas masks in the car(s) at all times.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Maine-Marine said:


> Your premise is wrong ...Yes it could happen..but we HAVE HAD more cases of hurricanes, tornadoes, wars, social unrest, government overthrows, black friday stampedes, pandemics, epidemics, etc................ then we have had chemical train wrecks...train wrecks would not even make the top 100


This excerpt is from:2.09 - Train Accidents and Rates

ACCIDENTS IN DESCENDING FREQUENCY ( By CALENDAR YEAR )

Selections: Railroad - All Railroads
State - All States County - All Counties
All Regions
*All Causes / Explosion-detonation *
All Track Types / All Track Classes 
*CALENDAR YEAR - 2014*
Reporting Level - ALL

So far for the year the US has had 1188 incidents resulting in explosions.

In 2013 there were 21522 accidents resulting in 835 deaths and about another 1100 injuries. 
From:ERNS | RTKNet.org: The Right-to-Know Network

I just think that the media downplays evrything to keep us from panicing about what is going on around us, everyday, 24/7.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

paraquack said:


> So far for the year the US has had 1188 incidents resulting in explosions.
> 
> I resulting in 835 deaths


SO you have a better chances of dying from:

choking 2,500
slip and fall 25,000


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## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

I was a volunteer firefighter in a small community years ago. We had railcars running through town that hauled every type of hazardous materials. We had a lot of equipment to deal with spills, leaks, fires, etc. The chief told me once that the most important piece of equipment was the binoculars that he had chained to the dash of the engines. Our initial response was to keep back and evalute the situation, using the railcar placards and the MSDS for the chemical in question. There were scenarios that could not be safely contained. Some situations you just can't prep for.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

A J said:


> Wondering,
> 
> If there is a place that we could ask about the cargo that travels down a RR near our homes? Would the sheriff office know? Are the RR companies required to file some sort of MSDS with the communities they haul dangerous cargo through?
> 
> ...


To give the short answer to your questions, it is 'No'. The only records are at the shipper and the railroad. If you're concerned, watch the movie 'Unstoppable' (Denzel Washington, Chris Pine). I doubt you,ll have many questions after watching it.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

jimb1972 said:


> The railroads don't make that type of cargo public because it would make it a convenient terrorist target. Look for square placards on the tank cars, placards are required on all hazardous material shipments. The ones you want to watch out for are the inhalation hazard ones.


Not always. Hazardous Materials Transportation Placarding Requirements

Placarding requirements do not apply to:


> • Small quantities of certain hazard classes
> • Limited Quantities (Ltd. Qty.)
> • Infectious substances
> • Other Regulated Material (ORM-Ds)
> ...


Furthermore, placards may not be displayed on a transport vehicle, portable tank or freight container, unless:


> • Transported material is a hazardous material
> • Placarding represents a hazard of the material
> • Placarding conforms to the regulations


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## 7515 (Aug 31, 2014)

A J said:


> Wondering,
> 
> If there is a place that we could ask about the cargo that travels down a RR near our homes? Would the sheriff office know? Are the RR companies required to file some sort of MSDS with the communities they haul dangerous cargo through?
> 
> ...


The shipper and carrier must keep copies of all hazmat manifest. Other than that there is no other record filed unless it is a interstate transportation of Nuclear reactor waste. Then the carrier must file a route plan with all state they will enter during transportation.

However. each hazmat shipment is marked on four sides with a placard that indicates which hazard class the material falls into and a 4 digit UN code number that will identify the material by name in a book called the DOT=emergency response guidebook. You can probably order a copy from the DOT for free. I keep one in the glove box of my personal vehicle.

I have worked in the chemical industry for over 30 years. Plants are so heavily regulated by OSHA, DOT, EPA, DHS that it is probably the safest industry in the USA.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

thepeartree said:


> To give the short answer to your questions, it is 'No'. The only records are at the shipper and the railroad. If you're concerned, watch the movie 'Unstoppable' (Denzel Washington, Chris Pine). I doubt you,ll have many questions after watching it.


The shipper also includes the operator of the carrying vehicle, per DOT regulation.


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## Sockpuppet (Sep 6, 2014)

Box of frogs said:


> However. each hazmat shipment is marked on four sides with a placard that indicates which hazard class the material falls into and a 4 digit UN code number that will identify the material by name in a book called the DOT=emergency response guidebook.


There are exceptions. See post number 23.


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## 7515 (Aug 31, 2014)

Sockpuppet said:


> There are exceptions. See post number 23.


Yes, the material being transported must fall into the DOT bulk description for placarding regs to apply.
So a truck, train, boat carrying more than 119 gallons or 882 pounds of a hazardous materiel must be placarded other wise it will fall into the limited quantity exemption.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

Chemical spill is one of my few serious preps.. that forest fire and cold weather emergency.


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## PossumPie (Oct 2, 2014)

Train wrecks/chem spills are dependent on where you live. For me, it is a non-issue. For someone else, it may be serious. I have always had a gut feeling that the SHTF/EOTWAWKI will be a "black swan" event....something virtually no one thinks about or knows about. We can speculate about the probability of some event, but to me, the scarier thing is the Black Swan event where we didn't even see "IT" coming. We cannot predict the probability of a Black Swan event b/c we don't know about it, AND we don't even know what we don't know.


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## Moonshinedave (Mar 28, 2013)

I have some protection for chemical and/or biological mishaps, for both my wife and myself. To say I have every base covered, wouldn't be true, but at least I am not without some protection.


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## shootbrownelk (Jul 9, 2014)

Huh! Here all along I thought it was illegal Mexican aliens from the south and illegal (or legal) Muslim immigration from the north taking over our voting system by voting for the Demotards .


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