# National debt



## THEGIMP

I don't believe the SHTF until they finally shut down the government including no payments for welfare and food stamps. That will be when those dependent on freebies and those who's lives matter will loot and burn down Walmarts across the nation. Even then there will need to be long term shutdown cause I think it would take another 30 days for the looters to start going house to house if they ever even do. 
This brings me to my main question how high can the national debt go before it has to stop. It will double every eight years just like the last two presidencies. So 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 what comes after trillion? Gazzilion? What the hell is a jigawatt? That would be 64 years from now. My kids would be due to retire on anchor babies great grandkids social security contributions. I see those types as saying just send those old white folks to the soylent green factory.


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## Denton

> This brings me to my main question how high can the national debt go before it has to stop.


It can't stop. The debt is far too high to be paid off. This is going to end in a painful, financial reset.


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## Smitty901

Backwards thinking none of that will happen for real until after SHTF.


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## Ripon

My guess is the US National Debt like that of many other countries will be retired in some form of monetary policy change; perhaps when the "world" goes to a world currency like the Greenback issued by the UN. There many leftist Americans on course with this already as its a means to a world wide tax for "better" redistribution. You know from us to the poor in China. 

Our political leaders could impose and control a 5% annual inflation and 4% annual growth rate in GDP. If they did that and kept spending growth at 1.25% on programs that kept the masses fed our budget would balance in only a few short years. After a balance they need to insure balance remains and they could begin retiring principle on the debt. People take 30 year mortgages if they followed the above path they'd retire that debt in 15. 

While $20 trillion is scary it can be paid back when your national economy is $17 trillion and growing.


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## THEGIMP

Oops we are already at 18 trillion so well hit the gazillion in 48 years. Thats my lifetime haha, no reason to save for retirement.


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## Slippy

Its the (unfunded) Long Term Liabilities that the Federal Government does not show on its Balance Sheet that is the real problem. Every company in the US that uses GAAP Accounting Principles has to show Long Term Liabilities on their Balance Sheet. Otherwise there is no way to adequately determine the Financial Health of the Company. For some illogical reason, the US Federal Government does NOT show the Long Term Liabilities on is Balance Sheet. And that number is approximated at....wait for it....wait....$180 TRILLION. 


To Rips point, the fundamentals of paying a debt of $20 if the total economy is $17 is certainly do-able. (Lose the Zero's and it makes more sense to the lesser intelligent out there). Its not too dis-similar to situations like many family's experience today. Say your income is $170k and you owe $200k in total debt. That ratio of debt to income is easily manageable right? 

So, if you want to pay down the $200k that you owe, you need to do one or two things; Increase your income (hard to do) OR Decrease your Spending (easier to do)...Or Both (the quickest way to accomplish the goal. That means no more eating out, no more vacations, cheap bourbon instead of Woodford, beans and rice, rice and beans as Dave Ramsey says. And maybe getting a part time job or selling stuff. Pretty simple, you get it, right?

It makes sense to take that same logic and attempt to apply it the US Federal Government. But it just doesn't work. The Federal Government will not cut its spending, it only thinks that raising its revenue (taxes) is the way to do it. BUT, raising revenue and increasing spending is the only thing that they will ever do. 

Add the unfunded Long Term Liabilities and we are simply SCREWED.


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## Denton

The ifs that are required to knock down the debt are a pipe dream. Not gonna happen.


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## Ripon

On this I agree. All I wanted to note was that it can be done. It doesn't mean we have the political will to do it. You could elect a trump and it still won't happen due to the hew and cry of a well orchestrated media.



Denton said:


> The ifs that are required to knock down the debt are a pipe dream. Not gonna happen.


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## A Watchman

Denton said:


> The ifs that are required to knock down the debt are a pipe dream. Not gonna happen.


I believe as alluded to, if even subtly, in many posts above. One cannot escape the reality that the national debt has not happened by accident. It has intentionally been driven up and with an already defined purpose and planned end result. This has been a long time in the making. A great deceit on the American people.

Now..... how are you going to balance that?

Likewise, and a contributing factor in our current economical crisis. Do you really believe the replacement of our culture here in the US with illegal immigrants and anti American sentiment has happened unaided or all by accident?


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## Slippy

Denton said:


> The ifs that are required to knock down the debt are a pipe dream. Not gonna happen.


Correct. The Feds will never cut spending and until We The People tell them NO MORE, they will continue to steal from us.

Just look at how hard it is for Congress to cut out a measly $.0500 from Planned Parenthood! (That's $500 million but if we're cutting out zero's then it comes out to be 5 cents for simplicity sake right?)

It will continue on this pace until there is no more for the Federal Government to steal from its citizenry. It is an exercise in Socialism and Socialism does not work.


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## THEGIMP

Slippy said:


> To Rips point, the fundamentals of paying a debt of $20 if the total economy is $17 is certainly do-able. (Lose the Zero's and it makes more sense to the lesser intelligent out there).


The economy may produce $17 but the government would have to tax at 100% to be able to call it it's annual salary. It probably takes in $2.5. So that would be like an annual salary of $25k and a mortgage of $170.


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## Slippy

THEGIMP said:


> The economy may produce $17 but the government would have to tax at 100% to be able to call it it's annual salary. It probably takes in $2.5. So that would be like an annual salary of $25k and a mortgage of $170.


You are Correct.

One point that I was trying to make, (and didn't do it very) well was take the current trend toward Socialism and provide a hypothetical situation where a takeover of 100% of the economy by the Federal government still doesn't provide enough to fulfill the Long Term Liabilities, knowng that a decrease in spending will never happen.


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## THEGIMP

So we all agree were fooked. There is no preservation of wealth they will devalue you're dollars and tax the shit out of your property. I think gold is about the only thing that makes since. But I am sure they will disallow purchases of goods and services that do not use the dollar. And converting gold to usable dollars will involve a hefty tax. No where to run, no where to hide. Too much corruption, too many leaders making millions off our backs. Selling out the many people who died to try and make this country great.


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## Camel923

The escalating debt will last as long as OPEC and oil exporters feel secure with the dollar being the world reserve currency. Follow the money trail and you usually find an answer. Keep praying the rest of the world stays more screwed up than we are.


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## Ripon

No need to pay it off in a year. It wasn't created in a year. People don't pay their mortgages in a year.

There is a valid point in that we don't have the political will to do the right thing. Mathematically if we wanted to we could arguably pay off the national debt in 15-20 years. It won't happen, but it is possible.



THEGIMP said:


> The economy may produce $17 but the government would have to tax at 100% to be able to call it it's annual salary. It probably takes in $2.5. So that would be like an annual salary of $25k and a mortgage of $170.


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## Ripon

Here is a simple formula. 

1) for five years we cut 20% a year want is given by the Feds in new education loans and we pledge that all repayments of past education loans be used to fuel new ones. In essence I'm just saying we have spent enough and don't need to spend more, and we can guilt those who borrowed into repaying.

2) we freeze government expenditures so they can't increase. Every other year we allow an increase that is 1/2 of the revenue growth. That means we are banking 75% of the revenue growth every two years. 

3). We cut out foreign aid if there is to be some horrific turmoil we do it over three years to stem the turmoil but in year for its gone. We prob have a balanced budget at that point.

4). We initiate a bounty system on fraud. Catch fraud get 15% of the savings.m


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## THEGIMP

75 percent of revenue growth assuming 3% growth would be .75 x .03 x 2.5trillion = 56billion. Now divide 18trillion by 56 billion = 321 years, actually sooner concidering the 3 percent growth ie the second year you can pay 57.68billion an so on. But you would still have to be looking at well beyond 100 years and that assumes you can cut spending to 2.5trillion instead of 4 trillion per year and rising exponentially.


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## A Watchman

THEGIMP said:


> 75 percent of revenue growth assuming 3% growth would be .75 x .03 x 2.5trillion = 56billion. Now divide 18trillion by 56 billion = 321 years, actually sooner concidering the 3 percent growth ie the second year you can pay 57.68billion an so on. But you would still have to be looking at well beyond 100 years and that assumes you can cut spending to 2.5trillion instead of 4 trillion per year and rising exponentially.


This makes sense, you just have to record it and play it back in slo mo.


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## alterego

Ripon said:


> My guess is the US National Debt like that of many other countries will be retired in some form of monetary policy change; perhaps when the "world" goes to a world currency like the Greenback issued by the UN. There many leftist Americans on course with this already as its a means to a world wide tax for "better" redistribution. You know from us to the poor in China.
> 
> Our political leaders could impose and control a 5% annual inflation and 4% annual growth rate in GDP. If they did that and kept spending growth at 1.25% on programs that kept the masses fed our budget would balance in only a few short years. After a balance they need to insure balance remains and they could begin retiring principle on the debt. People take 30 year mortgages if they followed the above path they'd retire that debt in 15.
> 
> While $20 trillion is scary it can be paid back when your national economy is $17 trillion and growing.


I totally agree with your math and logic above except for one thing. The debt is well over 100 trillion so in your home math your income is 175 and your debt is 1.8 millon.

Now do the calculation again and you will find the interest is more than you can pay.

So you perform Quantative easing to kick it down the road.


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## Ripon

Current revenues exceed $3 trillion. 3% for 1 year means $90 billion and $45 billion the second for a total of $135 billion. That is $135 billion a year. the process has to continue.

Year 1. $90 billion savings
2. $135 billon = $225 total
3. $225 billion = $450 total
4. $270 billion = $720 Total

You get the idea. Add to this measured and reasoned cuts as noted and we would be out of debt in less time to pay off a mortgage.



THEGIMP said:


> 75 percent of revenue growth assuming 3% growth would be .75 x .03 x 2.5trillion = 56billion. Now divide 18trillion by 56 billion = 321 years, actually sooner concidering the 3 percent growth ie the second year you can pay 57.68billion an so on. But you would still have to be looking at well beyond 100 years and that assumes you can cut spending to 2.5trillion instead of 4 trillion per year and rising exponentially.


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## Ripon

Stanford Business students noted a lot of projected debts called unfunded mandates don't accurately reflect any economic or population growths. Hence they are based on today's GDP not one say 20 years from now which will likely be double today's. Hence tax revenue would also double today's. We also have tax codes with expiration dates that some groups use to suggest we have unfunded mandates and don't imagine the tax might continue. In the next 20 years our govt will likely take in $100 trillion. The key is spending just $80 of it and paying down $20'trillion in debt. Then it'd be pretty easy to cut taxes.



alterego said:


> I totally agree with your math and logic above except for one thing. The debt is well over 100 trillion so in your home math your income is 175 and your debt is 1.8 millon.
> 
> Now do the calculation again and you will find the interest is more than you can pay.
> 
> So you perform Quantative easing to kick it down the road.


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## TacticalCanuck

Apparently the US gov just hands it out to anyone not from the US. Can I get a loan? I've got a shed full of gold that your not allowed to see inside of to back it up.


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## THEGIMP

Sounds like a beautiful scenario. You must be prepping for global warming, or a polar shift, or an asteroid impact.


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## THEGIMP

TacticalCanuck said:


> Apparently the US gov just hands it out to anyone not from the US. Can I get a loan? I've got a shed full of gold that your not allowed to see inside of to back it up.


Well you got to admit it's pretty sweet that you don't have to worry about paying for any aircraft carriers, submarines, and world police.


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## tinkerhell

US debt is what? 130k for each working american? That means a new worker gets saddled with a mortgage payment that gives them nothing.


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## Urinal Cake

Funny as hell, people talk about these numbers with no concept of HOW Much it is.
so looky here:
What does one TRILLION dollars look like?

Then Looky here:
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time


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## THEGIMP

Urinal Cake said:


> Funny as hell, people talk about these numbers with no concept of HOW Much it is.
> so looky here:
> What does one TRILLION dollars look like?
> 
> Then Looky here:
> U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time


That clock is freaking awesome.


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## 1skrewsloose

I didn't read all the post, so this may have been mentioned. Read that if the Gov paid 1 million a day to the debt, they would pay off in 5000 years! If they don't print or borrow more.


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## Slippy

The Bottom Line is that there is not 1 elected or unelected Federal Government employee that has any intention of ever paying down the debt or reducing spending.


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## 1skrewsloose

The last two gave it what I thought, was a good try were Kasich and I think Penney(sp). No one else would get on board.


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## Ripon

The best thing we can hope for with the current political environment is to get them at break even. Sadly even that isn't happening or coming close. We have just undergone some of the worst deficit spending in history for a nation who's only war / conflict could barely be called regional. I don't think we even went into annual deficit that much during WWII or during the depression before that but I haven't looked at the ratios. 

While most of us would like serious changes its not going to happen. I hope for minimal changes that would impact things slowly and get them to a manageable state so we can move ahead and pay the bugger off. That isn't going to happen either. 

As a prepared person, during the time of my life my finances were in near ruin, I really ran scared of monetary collapse. I think its probably the top fear of most prepared people. When our dollar finally falls - look out - SHTF. Since I've recovered, gotten older, and more prepared it no longer scares me as much. When I recognized I could survive it and live comfortably its impact was reduced in my mind. I also began seeing that much of its promotion / discussion was done to sell something. Usually precious metals but preparedness in general sometimes. Maybe that is ok, maybe not, but I tend to believe powerful people like our world as it is - they prosper nicely from it - and I doubt they want to "F" it up.


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## MisterMills357

THEGIMP;
This brings me to my main question how high can the national debt go before it has to stop. 
It will double every eight years just like the last two presidencies. So 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 what comes after trillion? Gazzilion? 
What the hell is a jigawatt? 
That would be 64 years from now. My kids would be due to retire on anchor babies great grandkids social security contributions. 
I see those types as saying just send those old white folks to the soylent green factory.

It cannot be paid off in any normal sense of that word; that is, it can't be paid like an electric bill. The only thing that can happen is hyperinflation.
That is a word that is abhorrent to politicians, and by other weak-hearted people to explain away the debt. But all that the debt amounts to, is an unpaid billing, by people who are owed. 
After it is paid off using hyper-inflation, a $100 bill, might get you a cup of coffee. That is how Germany did it after WW1, and that is how others have done it. Look for it to happen in America too.

We have been using a system of funny money for decades and sowing to the wind; and we will reap the whirlwind. And, you are right, the old people will be done away with, because they have made themselves a liability, and not an asset.


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## Ripon

If the nation had 5% inflation for a dozen or so years the value of the dollar is cut in half. That means the payback is cut in half too. I use to think a $10 trillion debt was "IT" and we were "DONE" but clearly I was wrong. The OP asks how high can it go? I don't think anyone knows the answer; but clearly $20 trillion isn't scaring too many people in charge right now - is it? I'm guessing the number is actually unknown and that the answer is more than many of us realize.


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## THEGIMP

I laughed at y2k, I laughed at end of the Mayan calander, I laughed at a full eclipse of the blood moon, but I don't laugh at the end of fiscal responsibility. I hate our government leadership.


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## tirednurse

THEGIMP said:


> I don't believe the SHTF until they finally shut down the government including no payments for welfare and food stamps. That will be when those dependent on freebies and those who's lives matter will loot and burn down Walmarts across the nation. Even then there will need to be long term shutdown cause I think it would take another 30 days for the looters to start going house to house if they ever even do.
> This brings me to my main question how high can the national debt go before it has to stop. It will double every eight years just like the last two presidencies. So 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 what comes after trillion? Gazzilion? What the hell is a jigawatt? That would be 64 years from now. My kids would be due to retire on anchor babies great grandkids social security contributions. I see those types as saying just send those old white folks to the soylent green factory.


Are you kidding Gimp. As soon as those checks stop coming I would guess within hours there would be riots. We saw it 2 winters ago when there was a foul up on EBT cards or what ever they are called in Altanta. when a couple of them couldn't pay for their items at the grocery store things got violent fast. I doubt it would take a month before looting homes. At best we would have a week but I would guess just days. 
people like that have no respect for others, their property or the fact that they worked hard to get what they have. The majority (not all) expect that everything should be handed to them. It is their right to have what everyone else has no matter how it is obtained.


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## A Watchman

tirednurse said:


> Are you kidding Gimp. As soon as those checks stop coming I would guess within hours there would be riots. We saw it 2 winters ago when there was a foul up on EBT cards or what ever they are called in Altanta. when a couple of them couldn't pay for their items at the grocery store things got violent fast. I doubt it would take a month before looting homes. At best we would have a week but I would guess just days.
> people like that have no respect for others, their property or the fact that they worked hard to get what they have. The majority (not all) expect that everything should be handed to them. It is their right to have what everyone else has no matter how it is obtained.


tirednurse has a point. It takes very little for those with nothing but time on their hands and a gov check in their pockets to take to the streets. Talk about a national SHTF.


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## Ripon

I have no fondness for our leadership in the US Government, I find them inept and at worse evil. Still I believe there are powers that be that control them and will maintain the status quo - likely for my time on this planet and everyone elses' on this forum too. Fact is these folks have it good. They are the new chiefdom's of the world and they don't want to be chiefs of a crapped out looted / rioted / SHTF crisis world. They aim to keep the status quo and will do what is necessary to insure it stays that way - even if it means giving up an ounce of their wealth.



THEGIMP said:


> I laughed at y2k, I laughed at end of the Mayan calander, I laughed at a full eclipse of the blood moon, but I don't laugh at the end of fiscal responsibility. I hate our government leadership.


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## Urinal Cake

THEGIMP said:


> That clock is freaking awesome.


There'a lot to look at there....... if you hold you mouse over an item the box on top describes it.

What does one TRILLION dollars look like? Put's the volume in perspective.


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## THEGIMP

1skrewsloose said:


> The last two gave it what I thought, was a good try were Kasich and I think Penney(sp). No one else would get on board.


Wtf did this make sense to anyone?


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## Billy Roper

Which do you think is more likely to cause a collapse: hyperinflation, the collapse of the dollar, China calling their debt in, or some other economic factor, or a combination of the above?


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## Slippy

Keep this in perspective the next time you hear some democrap libtard spout off about the evil CEO's of major corporations and this class warfare BS;

The Feds have access to TRILLIONS of dollars not just billions like CEO's of major corporations.

CEO's of these corporations have to answer to stockholders and the Feds via SEC regulations. Their revenue is generally derived from "voluntary patronage".

The FEDS take in their Trillions of Dollars of Revenue through the threat of incarceration of the people. There is no oversight as to what they can do with these Trillions. EVERY elected government official at the Federal level leave's "office" a multi millionaire. 

That is not the case with every CEO of a private company. 

Don't buy into this class warfare shat.


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## Denton

Don't forget the next sledge hammer to the economy as well as to our sovereignty. The TPP is going to make sure that we not only have no control over our own government but have an economy that is finished off by shipping it to the Asian nations.


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## Ripon

I've been trying to figure that out for a long time now, and its one of the reason I often say none of the above. Here is my little opinion.

Countries like Russia, China and others may hate us, but having us buy their crap is far better off then ruining us and not having us buy anything. Buying their crap enables them to feed their masses, generate power, and live a pretty darn good life (for the elites).

Power elites here like it too (the way it is). They don't want chaos and collapse. IPhones' won't sell as well in a collapse. Neither will music, movies or anything else the elites here peddle to the masses. The masses being "stable" enables them a very good life and why would they let that falter?

Probably the one entity that would like to "F" it up is radical islamist. They aren't too intelligent since they thought taking down the trade centers would accomplish economic collapse of the great satan, but clearly they were wrong. If they were to target us it would likely be with oil (denying us the middle eastern oil and raising energy costs) and some how hitting our consumer capacities. To truly ruin us they need to cause some sort of hyper inflation through terrorist activities.

The OP wants to know what debt figure causes a collapse and I don't know the answer to that; and I don't envision it happening. They'll just inflate.



Billy Roper said:


> Which do you think is more likely to cause a collapse: hyperinflation, the collapse of the dollar, China calling their debt in, or some other economic factor, or a combination of the above?


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## Slippy

I agree Rip. Here's my view for the next 30 years;

Further deterioration of The Constitution and thus more loss of Liberty
More abuse, fraud and waste of federal tax receipts
More lawlessness in major metro areas, mostly democrap controlled but the lines will continue to be blurred as to Repub or Democrap

More taxation as the citizenry continues the current trend of "vote for the one who give more freebies"
Less wealth for the many, more wealth for the few
More immigration resulting in a change of culture in many areas of the country to reflect the craphole place that these people come from

More out of wedlock births, less formation of families, more abortions, less morality
More regulations especially on energy resulting in higher energy costs and less reliable energy...


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## THEGIMP

Slippy said:


> Keep this in perspective the next time you hear some democrap libtard spout off about the evil CEO's of major corporations and this class warfare BS;
> 
> The Feds have access to TRILLIONS of dollars not just billions like CEO's of major corporations.
> 
> CEO's of these corporations have to answer to stockholders and the Feds via SEC regulations. Their revenue is generally derived from "voluntary patronage".
> 
> The FEDS take in their Trillions of Dollars of Revenue through the threat of incarceration of the people. There is no oversight as to what they can do with these Trillions. EVERY elected government official at the Federal level leave's "office" a multi millionaire.
> 
> That is not the case with every CEO of a private company.
> 
> Don't buy into this class warfare shat.


You hit the nail square on the head with this post. This is the reason you cannot trust the government. Specially if you don't trust corporations. That is why I never understood liberalism.


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## Billy Roper

If something happened to our economy so we weren't able to keep China's economic engine going by buying the consumer goods they produce, or we got cross with them, they could call in much of the debt that we owe them, and the effects would be devastating, we would have to default or repudiate it. Maybe give them California as collateral.


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## Prepared One

One thing is certain. This will end badly. I fear sooner then many think.


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## THEGIMP

Billy Roper said:


> If something happened to our economy so we weren't able to keep China's economic engine going by buying the consumer goods they produce, or we got cross with them, they could call in much of the debt that we owe them, and the effects would be devastating, we would have to default or repudiate it. Maybe give them California as collateral.


If they sold their bills and bonds they would have to do so on the open market. The price they would get would be less, since they are increasing the supply of bonds they are lowering the bonds price and that means the effective interest rate goes up. That means stronger dollar and we could buy more of their shit for less increasing demand for their stuff. But for some reason the bankers tell me deflation is bad, and it is better when I spend 8 dollars on a happy meal.


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## Piratesailor

Slippy said:


> The Bottom Line is that there is not 1 elected or unelected Federal Government employee that has any intention of ever paying down the debt or reducing spending.


Slippy... you pretty much hit the nail on the head. We can theorize, pontificate and estimate until the cows come home but the reality is made up of two things.

1. as Slippy mentioned.... not a single person of the ruling class will EVER pay down debt or reduce spending

and ... more importantly...

2. The 47% of Americans that can elect officials to keep giving them money will only increase and keep the ruling class from #1 above in power...

It's called a "do loop" until the machine crashes.


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## MisterMills357

We may live to see currency notes in circulation of $10,000, and I don't mean among the banks, I mean in peoples wallets. And we may see the dollar collapse entirely, in our lifetime.


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