# When SHTF, have you ever really thought how it will start?



## Slats (Nov 18, 2012)

Hey Guys,

Part of the 'Stampede" I guess! I found the link on the Colt Forum and thought I would "jump in with both feet". Seems like a thought provoking forum with a lot of good folks and information.

I haven't read the archives, so if this has already been brought up I suppose Moderators could put it in the right forum.

As in the title, when SHTF, have you ever really thought how it will start? 
Not to be morbid, but I was reading an article this week in one of my journals that an MD had written concerning death. I can't quote exactly, but was to the effect of "I have seen death come as quickly as a loose doorknob coming off in your hand, and as slow as rust forming on a piece of iron.

Doorknob in hand,>perhaps nuclear attack with results much like that of the storm (Sandy) last week. 

Rust senario, >maybe wake up to a situation like those in the wake of the storm last week up the Atlantic coast, albiet without the distruction. 

Electricity out, then water, cell phones not connecting etc. Not too much out of the ordinary to announce it's come until the second (or third) day perhaps. With no major event, and no communications we could (perhaps in a rural setting) be a day or two into the situation and not even know it, where in a city it might be more obvious.
I live in a small town in Alabama, and fortunate to have some property, some of it wooded, which is good I suppose if really needed to bug out to a campsite to get away from the crazies that are bound to develop in the populus. I've wanted for a long time to step back 100 or more years to a simpler lifestyle, but I'm not fooling myself. I don't think were ever totally prepared for the unknown.
It's not uncommon here to have the lights go out, morning or afternoon and at times continue through the night, due to trees falling on the powerlines etc. Last week the cellphone did 'not connect', an inconvience but a distant neighbor had a "push to talk' phone, and the cell did work later that night.

I think by the third day I would put my plan into action, probably because the local population would by then be giving out of food and water supplies. Sort of obvious something is wrong by then I suppose.
So what are some of your thoughts?


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Here's my trusty old 'Disaster List' again, I suppose all we can do is play it by ear depending which one zaps us.
Plus we're all different, some will be lone wolves with just themselves to look after, but others will have families.
And some live in cities, some in the country, and each area is different such as plains, mountains, dry, wet, warm, cold etc.
So like i said we'll just have to call the plays as best we can when it's Showtime..

1- *Chernobyl-type nuclear plant accident*, but on a much bigger scale, poisoning an area as big as the USA or the whole of Europe and Asia.
2- *Massive meteor or asteroid strike *wiping out millions with blast and tsunami, and kicking up enough dust to black out the sun for years like what wiped out the dinosaurs.
3- *World War 3 exchange of nuclear weapons *poisoning virtually the entire planet.
4- *A plague *wiping out most humans on earth after accidental release from a bio research lab, or a deliberate release by terrorists to wipe out the population of a specific country, or perhaps a virus naturally evolves that has no cure.
5- *EC Event (Economic Collapse)* triggering total breakdown of law and order resulting in looting gangs etc. 
6- *EM pulse (from a solar flare or nuclear bomb)* blows out the electricity grid and electronics, it'll be bad but hopefully the govt will have contingency plans to get relief food and medicine convoys up and running.
7- *Mega-earthquake *bigger than anything the earth has experienced before, demolishing a whole bunch of cities across countries or continents.
8- *Mega-tsunami *triggered by gigantic quake at sea, wiping out coastal areas for a hundred miles or more inland.
9- *Runaway volcano *that carries on spewing out dust and ash for months, throwing a grey wind-carried shroud around the planet blocking out sunlight and triggering subzero temperature drops.
10- *Haywire weather *(nonstop storms, tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards, floods etc) caused by global warming, pollution, ozone depletion etc


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## Slats (Nov 18, 2012)

Thought provoking answer, makes me realize that most of us don't stand a chance if too close to those events


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## cannon (Nov 11, 2012)

Add in the international things like Isreal being shelled and apparently getting ready to do something about it. Always dangerous when nations with nukes get ready to rumble.


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## WoadWarrior (Oct 10, 2012)

I think the Ghostbusters movie said it best:

Dr. Peter Venkman: This city is headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
Mayor: What do you mean, "biblical"?
Dr Ray Stantz: What he means is Old Testament, Mr. Mayor, real wrath of God type stuff.
Dr. Peter Venkman: Exactly.
Dr Ray Stantz: Fire and brimstone coming down from the skies! Rivers and seas boiling!
Dr. Egon Spengler: Forty years of darkness! Earthquakes, volcanoes...
Winston Zeddemore: The dead rising from the grave!
Dr. Peter Venkman: Human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
Mayor: All right, all right! I get the point! 


It's the cats and dogs living together that we have to watch out for...


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## nadja (May 1, 2012)

I think a lot of things are coming together right now, just a little at a time. Like boiling the frog in a pot of water. Slowly , something here, something there, adds up over a time, without drawing much alarm. Then one morning, you wake up and realize that it may be too late to react. 
Now, if it were a surprise attack from say Iran in the form of a terrriorist delivered nuke by way of a barge or something like that, then you would instantly know it was here, but if the economy continues to collapse, draughts here, prices of course keep going up, un-employment continues to grow, most may not see it until it was far too late .


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Speaking of religion, the USA, Britain and Canada etc are still Christian countries (I think) so as a matter of interest here's the Bibles take on the end of the world-
Jesus said- _"There shall be wars, rumours of wars, false christs, earthqakes, famines, persecutions,darkened sun and moon, falling stars,shaken planets.
Pray that this will not take place in winter, because those will be days of distress unequaled from the beginning until now-and never to be equaled again.
Be on guard! Be alert! You do not know when that time will come. What I say to you, I say to everyone: *Watch*!"- (Mark ch 13)_

And this verse knocks on the head all those cultists who like to think they know when the End will be-
Jesus said- _"But about that day or hour *no one knows*, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father."- (Mark 13:30-32)_

And here's an optimistic note, there *WILL* be some survivors..
Jesus said- _"If the Lord had not cut short those days, no one would survive"- (Mark 13:20)_


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

Slats said:


> [re Disaster List]:Thought provoking answer, makes me realize that most of us don't stand a chance if too close to those events


Survival can never be guaranteed, but by being prepped for it we can at least get the odds in our favour..
Right Kid?
_*"Right"*_










_"Luck is not something you can mention in the presence of self-made men"- E.B.White
"The winds and waves are always on the side of the ablest navigators"- Edward Gibbon
"Luck? I don't know anything about luck. I've never banked on it...Luck to me is something else...realizing what is opportunity and what isn't"- Lucille Ball
"Luck has a peculiar habit of favoring those who don't depend on it"- Anon
"I deserved my good luck" - Margaret Thatcher
"Thanks but no need to wish me luck, I make my own luck"- PoorOldSpike (computer wargame champion)
"Do you not know that in a race all the runners run, but only one gets the prize? Run in such a way as to get the prize" (Bible:1 Cor 9:24)
_


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## whoppo (Nov 9, 2012)

How will it start? It will start quickly and while we're looking the other way.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

whoppo said:


> How will it start? It will start quickly and while we're looking the other way.


A surprise nuke attack could catch us napping.
Incidentally, apart from the blast and fireball, this clip also shows how a nuke blast can blow out car ignitions and the power grid at 2 minutes with its EM pulse-


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## jmh033089 (Oct 23, 2012)

Lucky Jim said:


> Speaking of religion, the USA, Britain and Canada etc are still Christian countries (I think) so as a matter of interest here's the Bibles take on the end of the world-
> Jesus said- _"There shall be wars, rumours of wars, false christs, earthqakes, famines, persecutions,darkened sun and moon, falling stars,shaken planets.
> Pray that this will not take place in winter, because those will be days of distress unequaled from the beginning until now-and never to be equaled again.
> Be on guard! Be alert! You do not know when that time will come. What I say to you, I say to everyone: *Watch*!"- (Mark ch 13)_
> ...


That is some pretty powerful stuff...


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

jmh033089 said:


> [re Bibles end of world quotes] That is some pretty powerful stuff...


This verse seems to foretell pollution, the ozone hole (rent), hair loss thru radiation, ultra-violet burning etc- 
_"And it shall come to pass, that instead of sweet smell there shall be stink; and instead of a girdle a rent; and instead of well set hair baldness; and instead of a stomacher a girding of sackcloth; and burning instead of beauty."(Isaiah 3:24)_

The writing's certainly been on the wall long enough and humankind has ignored it-
_"The time has come for judging the dead...and for destroying those who destroy the earth" (Revelation 11:18 )_


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## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

Not too worried about a nuclear attack -- USA has nuclear triad and massive retaliatory capability, and nukes have not been used in war since 1945. Sure, Iran is trying their program, and Pakistan has nukes, but the chances of a nuclear attack in the USA are so remote it is not worth losing sleep over. Dirty bomb is a remote possibility, but the chances are very low, IMHO. The chances these could be used in the Middle East is much higher, just not on our shores. Not planning any trips to the Holy Land anytime soon, in any event. And honestly, if an attack did come, I think I would rather be one of the ones who dies in the conflagration than survive to see the aftermath and what it will bring with it. That's just my point of view, anyway.

Chances of a natural disaster are much higher, witness Superstorm Sandy, along with the usual tornadoes, earthquakes, wildfires, blizzards, droughts - those are worth preparing for.

Food riots, civil insurrections and social upheaval caused by government-mandated austerity programs, resource wars, those are much more real possibilities, and are already occurring. These will be delayed in onset, so time to get ready will be available to those who monitor events.

A sudden spark igniting a tinderbox -- very possible -- particularly if racial tensions are inflamed by the incident(s). Recent history on that is very troubling -- and harder to anticipate.

I just try and stay aware of what is happening locally and globally. You might be able to see a trend developing. But to me, the preps are the same, so I keep doing what I need to do.


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## joec (Nov 12, 2012)

In my case I am prepared regardless. With that said it is more than likely due to a natural disaster as food vanishes from the store shelves in about 3 days if transportation comes to an end or can't get to the stores to restock. Be it by volcano, earth quake, solar flare taking out the electrical grid etc. In essence it really doesn't matter if you survive the initial of the problem at that point you need 3 things, water, food and safe shelter. Gold, silver etc will mean nothing if the civilized world stopped quickly.


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## badey (Nov 9, 2012)

I think a slow economic collapse (partial collapse, not total collapse) is the most likely scenario for a large-scale SHTF event.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

badey said:


> I think a slow economic collapse (partial collapse, not total collapse) is the most likely scenario for a large-scale SHTF event.


And the most traumatic shocking experience would be for us to go down the bank to draw out our cash, only to find the doors locked in our faces!
It already happens from time to time anyway like here a few years ago but luckily they re-opened after a few days. 
But in a time of 'national emergency' the government could close all banks for as long as they like-










_"The federal government took control of Pasadena-based IndyMac Bank on Friday in what regulators called the second-largest bank failure in U.S. history.
Citing a massive run on deposits, regulators shut its main branch three hours early, leaving customers stunned and upset. One woman leaned on the locked doors, pleading with an employee inside: "Please, please, I want to take out a portion." All she could do was read a two-page notice taped to the door."

Federal regulators seize crippled IndyMac Bank - Los Angeles Times_

This temporary closure happened in Britain- 









So how can we prep against it?
Personally I don't have much money anyway but I split it into 3 parts at the bank, in my wallet, and at home. That way if the banks shut, or I get mugged, or my home burns down, I'll always have some to fall back on..
(Unless the bank closes and I get mugged and my house burns down all at the same time)


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## WoadWarrior (Oct 10, 2012)

Well... I know who my rich neighbors are and which ones keep cash and food on hand. I'll just go shopping there.


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## Slats (Nov 18, 2012)

On a lighter note, I guess "Dont be standing in front of the fan when it hits!":shock:


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## Pir8fan (Nov 16, 2012)

I'm more concerned about a financial meltdown like the one that occurred in Germany just after WW I. Hyper inflation and 30-40% unemployment. That would create a lot of desperate people and start a downward spiral that would be difficult to overcome.


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## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

This guy in a Survivors episode loaded his ruck with money instead of food and died of starvation and disease-


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## Fuzzee (Nov 20, 2012)

I honestly think it will come about by war. And soon enough in the near future. Natural causes are certainly possible, but unless it's major scale natural disaster we see it all the time, deal with it all the time and drive on. Major would mean a large amount of the world infrastructure is damaged that their isn't enough help to be had. But the possibility of major war and the tensions of the world which we're in seem to be obviously growing. My buddy feels it's not going to hit till the fresh water crisis comes to the point there's no looking away anymore and countries are forced to act for the future of their people. I've no doubt it will eventually get worse because of water, but feel we're going to get into things because of other tensions before that point.


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## fedorthedog (Feb 28, 2012)

I think no matter what the others issues that occur in tandem with failure the two driving factors will be food and fuel.


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## jc-hunter (Nov 13, 2012)

fedorthedog said:


> I think no matter what the others issues that occur in tandem with failure the two driving factors will be food and fuel.


I agree. I believe these inevitable shortages will be a result of a chain reaction. Nuclear attacks and wars between Israel and Iran/radical Islam,( but eventually escalating to WWIII) causing chaos in that region, resulting in exorbitant fuel costs, driving up food prices, idiots running our government with no courage or integrity to do the right things, resulting in higher taxes and massive unemployment, leading to social rioting and chaos, leading to much more crime. At the top of our lists should be immediate prepping against home invasions, as the crime rate ( desperation) soars. As far as a natural disaster, the storms and hurricanes will get more frequent, but an EMP may be the fix to war. Think about it. If a giant EMP hit the entire earth, no electronic guidance systems would work to deliver a nuke. Without grids and devices, we would be rendered back to a life of simple needs. Food, water, shelter, and heat. No major wars, just small conflicts between haves and have nots. I believe 80%+ of the worlds population would perish within a year or so. Starvation, sickness, and crime would take most. It could be seen as a new beginning for mankind. Not the end. I dont believe this would be caused by God. God would allow it because mankind has made its bed and must now sleep in it. But an EMP would actually be better than world wide nuclear war.


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## Fuzzee (Nov 20, 2012)

> I dont believe this would be caused by God. God would allow it because mankind has made its bed and must now sleep in it.


God designed nature with a need for balance and we've told nature to take it's balance and shove it. The fact is God and nature will shove back harder.


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## jc-hunter (Nov 13, 2012)

Fuzzee said:


> God designed nature with a need for balance and we've told nature to take it's balance and shove it. The fact is God and nature will shove back harder.


That is right, and we caused the imbalance.


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