# Large EMP event a certainty says Lloyds of London



## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

Lloyds of London weighs in on the risk to the US of a large geomagnetic storm, in their opinion a certainty to occur:

https://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloy... risk to the north american electric grid.pdf

The peak of the risk window is in early 2015! They estimate 20 to 40 million people would lose electric power in a corridor from Washington DC to New York City, lasting for a period of 16 days to 2 years. Many other pockets of blackouts also. This is un-insurable.

The paper is a good primer on an EMP/CME event.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Interestingly, Lloyds main US office is in New York. They also have a major office in Boston. 

I wonder what, if anything, their employees in that area think of their company's projections?


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

BTW sideKahr, excellent info


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

Wow..thanks for the heads up n that. Pretty scary old world out there. Have to agree with Salt n Pepper...got to be a demoralizing aspect of employment at that place. They need to move to Texas. Hope yall dont mind a person shooting off a copy of this to Guv'nor Abbot. Thanks. He loves to take big companies away from yankees.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Thanks Sidekahr. Good read.


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## SDF880 (Mar 28, 2013)

Thanks! That was a good read.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

EMP is man made. I did not see that reference I saw the one about a solar flare event? Is EMP mentioned in the meat of the pdf I haven't gotten thru it? Big difference though nearly same impact.


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## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

Ripon said:


> EMP is man made. I did not see that reference I saw the one about a solar flare event? Is EMP mentioned in the meat of the pdf I haven't gotten thru it? Big difference though nearly same impact.


You're correct, of course. I wrote it that way for clarity because I'm not sure how many people know what a CME is. A coronal mass ejection is sometimes called a Solar EMP, but unlike a nuclear EMP, it does not induce and E1 or E2 emission.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> Interestingly, Lloyds main US office is in New York. They also have a major office in Boston.
> 
> I wonder what, if anything, their employees in that area think of their company's projections?


I am not familiar with the Lloyd's facilities, but many buildings in NYC are equipped with generators and other backup systems that were installed prior to Y2k. The problem would be getting fuel deliveries.

The biggest concern I have is that this doesn't cover the likelihood of damage to modern vehicles. I think the impact of a localized event, even one lasting 2 years, would be heavily dependent on whether cars and trucks continued to operate within the region. If say 15 million cars are taken out of service, that is a year's worth of auto sales for the whole country. Imagine your power goes out and your vehicles are all toast. Furthermore all your friends and neighbors are in the same boat. On the other hand, if your car still runs, you can get around. Loss of power would still be a PITA but you could get groceries to stores and get to the stores to shop. Big difference.


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## Mad Trapper (Feb 12, 2014)

Diver said:


> I am not familiar with the Lloyd's facilities, but many buildings in NYC are equipped with generators and other backup systems that were installed prior to Y2k. The problem would be getting fuel deliveries.
> 
> The biggest concern I have is that this doesn't cover the likelihood of damage to modern vehicles. I think the impact of a localized event, even one lasting 2 years, would be heavily dependent on whether cars and trucks continued to operate within the region. If say 15 million cars are taken out of service, that is a year's worth of auto sales for the whole country. Imagine your power goes out and your vehicles are all toast. Furthermore all your friends and neighbors are in the same boat. On the other hand, if your car still runs, you can get around. Loss of power would still be a PITA but you could get groceries to stores and get to the stores to shop. Big difference.


Got any cars that still have points? The only things that might fry is the coil. Put 1 or 2 in a metallic cage


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Diver said:


> I am not familiar with the Lloyd's facilities, but many buildings in NYC are equipped with generators and other backup systems that were installed prior to Y2k. The problem would be getting fuel deliveries.


Yeah, the only thing I know is that they are in NYC & Boston, and that i got from the web. No idea what their setup is.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

While I don't know about Lloyd's, something like this would be a huge nuisance for the banking industry, but they would remain operational. Most of the data center facilities are backed up in other parts of the country. Disaster plans were beefed up first for Y2k, then after the 9/11 attacks, and again after the last blackout a couple years later.

In a regional disaster such as that described, much of the operations could be relocated out of the area quickly. If your car works, load up the family and drive to where ever backup sites are or you are told to go. 9/11 occurred on a Tuesday and things were working the following Monday. This scenario sounds a bit worse but the beefed up disaster capabilities would offset that.

On the other hand, if transportation is screwed up, then it becomes much harder for people to get to the disaster facilities.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

the biggest EMP I ever saw was a pissed off 7 ft 400 pound military cop in the bathroom tell yah right now all the lights went out real quick. OH wait different emp. LOL


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Any damage from a solar event could be negated by simply shutting down the power distribution for the hours it would take for the flare or CME to pass by earth. We get at least 24 hours warning of solar events so it would be simple to shut the system down and ground it until the event passed. Yes, hospitals and other emergency service folks would have to be notified but that is not difficult. Emergency generators would not be affected and the inconvenience to customers would be a lot less than 5 to ten years without power if they keep the system up during the highest magnitude of the event.

With a solar event you don't have to worry about electronics, they are not affected by the E2 and E3 pulses of solar events only the long transmission lines and active circuits through transformers and the large generators at the generating stations.


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## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

O


PaulS said:


> Any damage from a solar event could be negated by simply shutting down the power distribution for the hours it would take for the flare or CME to pass by earth. We get at least 24 hours warning of solar events so it would be simple to shut the system down and ground it until the event passed. Yes, hospitals and other emergency service folks would have to be notified but that is not difficult. Emergency generators would not be affected and the inconvenience to customers would be a lot less than 5 to ten years without power if they keep the system up during the highest magnitude of the event.
> 
> With a solar event you don't have to worry about electronics, they are not affected by the E2 and E3 pulses of solar events only the long transmission lines and active circuits through transformers and the large generators at the generating stations.


That would be the best scenario, disconnect the transmission lines that pick up the E3 induced earth currents, turn off the grid and let the CME pass. This would cause turbine trips, with subsequent reactor scrams, over a large part of the grid. Perhaps over the entire grid due to cascading failure.

But... And there's always a but... We've never re-energized the grid from complete shutdown, what the engineers term a "Black Start". It's big and it's complex. There's no protocol for a restart, indeed no one knows if it CAN be done.

The boilers in the coal fired plants aren't designed to go cold, they will be damaged. The reactors take days to get back on line, so a blackout will last at least that long. The crazy thing is, the coal fired plants use about 10% of the power they generate to just operate the draft fans and feedwater pumps and power the fuel supply systems. When they start these plants normally, they draw power from the grid to excite the gererators and power up the system.

With the grid down, boot strapping the system becomes very complicated. Hydroelectric plants would probably be started first with the aid of emergency diesel gensets. They would supply power to sequentially start the base load plants.

But you can't just feed power into the system without a load at the other end. The grid would have to booted up in blocks, with carefully controlled loads in each. How to do it with degraded communication systems, etc will be challenging.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

sideKahr said:


> O
> 
> That would be the best scenario, disconnect the transmission lines that pick up the E3 induced earth currents, turn off the grid and let the CME pass. This would cause turbine trips, with subsequent reactor scrams, over a large part of the grid. Perhaps over the entire grid due to cascading failure.
> 
> ...


Is anyone studying the problem?


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

Sorry, but what I was taught in the military about EMPs I call BS. EMPs are in pulses from the sun. They will hit whichever part of the earth exposed to the sun at that time. The sun rotates as well as wobbles on its axis.


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## sideKahr (Oct 15, 2014)

Diver said:


> Is anyone studying the problem?


Yes, industry groups and Homeland Security. They are more concerned with the hacking aspect of it, and how to restart from a cascading failure. We know how to protect the grid from a CME, but Congress has refused to allocate the money.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I understand protecting our grid is a relatively simple matter. And compared to what congress spends on other foolish studies it would be affordable. I read the other day that NORAD is moving back into Cheyenne Mountain because it is hardened against EMP already. ( Along with Nuclear blast ) Kinda makes you wonder what they know and we don't.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

If you have a generator and it is unplugged and not running does it need to be in a faraday cage to be insulated from EM?


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

sideKahr said:


> Yes, industry groups and Homeland Security. They are more concerned with the hacking aspect of it, and how to restart from a cascading failure. We know how to protect the grid from a CME, but Congress has refused to allocate the money.


Well, Obamacare is much more important. LOL


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

rjd25 said:


> If you have a generator and it is unplugged and not running does it need to be in a faraday cage to be insulated from EM?


I'd like sideKahr's opinion but my understanding is that with either an EMP or a CME there is a pretty wide range of possibilities of wavelength involved. Longer wavelengths cause damage by transmitting in long transmission lines. Shorter wavelengths can damage microcomputers, electronic ignitions, etc. As a result it depends on what you are hit with.

An unplugged and off item won't get damage transmitted into it from the grid, but it theoretically can be damaged directly by strong, short wavelength, pulses. So you are better off with it turned off and unplugged. However, this is just based on what I have read, not any real knowledge on my part.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

rjd25 said:


> If you have a generator and it is unplugged and not running does it need to be in a faraday cage to be insulated from EM?


Depends on the generator. An EMP will damage small electronic component. The smaller, the more chance of damage, micro circuits most likely will be damaged. So the question is how your generator is controlled. The cheaper the generator the less likely it will have micro components in the control system. An inverter type generator would most likely have small solid state components and be vulnerable. You might be able to call/email the manufacturer and ask them how and what electronics are in the controls. The older it is , the less likely to have micro electronic components. As far as the rest of the generator's big parts, it should be fine from what I read. But as they say, when in doubt...


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## haydukeprepper (Apr 28, 2013)

Very good read from a pretty reliable source. Kinda scary.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

haydukeprepper said:


> Very good read from a pretty reliable source. Kinda scary.


Could be worse. You could live in NJ and work in NY.


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## Roaddawg (Mar 28, 2015)

Sounds to me like another Mayan Calendar scenario!

It's interesting and could happen, but doubtful it will happen.

Thanks for the fictional read though.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Most SHTF scenarios are low probability events, especially if you try to pin down when and where it might occur. The idea that we will experience an EMP or a CME strikes me as high. The idea we will experience it 2015 strikes me as low. The probability that it will strike the Washington to NY corridor rather than someplace else and leave other areas alone also seems remote.

On the other hand if you asked me will a CME or EMP strike a populated area some time in the next 100 years, . . .


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## 8301 (Nov 29, 2014)

Not sure of the date of that report but before 2014. From what I've read the last few years the utilities have been hardening the grid the last few years which may reduce the potential damage.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

FoolAmI said:


> Not sure of the date of that report but before 2014. From what I've read the last few years the utilities have been hardening the grid the last few years which may reduce the potential damage.


Well, that would be smart if it is true. In fact, there is really no reason this problem cannot be solved by the private sector. Utilities should harden their infrastructure, automakers shield the electronics in their products, communications networks should be protected, etc. None of this requires that Congress get involved.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

FoolAmI said:


> Not sure of the date of that report but before 2014. From what I've read the last few years the utilities have been hardening the grid the last few years which may reduce the potential damage.


Fox news had a congressman on about 6 months ago. They had a big congressional meeting about it. But so far, not very many utilities and not very much hardening. They want the Government to pay for it. So...

This is from 2013. http://democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report-Electric-Grid-Vulnerability-2013-5-21.pdf


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

paraquack said:


> Fox news had a congressman on about 6 months ago. They had a big congressional meeting about it. But so far, not very many utilities and not very much hardening. They want the Government to pay for it. So...
> 
> This is from 2013. http://democrats.energycommerce.house.gov/sites/default/files/documents/Report-Electric-Grid-Vulnerability-2013-5-21.pdf


The reason they want government to pay for it is because rates are controlled at the state level and there is no return on this as long as an EMP does not happen. Let's say a utility spends $1 billion on hardening. That comes straight out of profit and management gets checked out by the stockholders. What they need to do is go to the state utility commission and request a rate increase for this purpose in order to do it as a private sector project.

That implies you get hardening in some states and not others. If the Feds pay for it, you'll get a more uniform upgrade, but then you've got to play by the fed rules. This whole issue is a political mess and it is hard to see any quick solution until folks have the experience of an outage.


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## Medic33 (Mar 29, 2015)

They way I figure it they raze the rates for doing nothing, I have even seen them make a surplus amount on one side of the country and send it to the other all so they can charge the receiver shipping (not called shipping but you get the point). SO if they don't want to protect their business then F'em power grid goes down they don't make any money they have to pay to get it back up wth , Thats when the fed should say no man you made billions, fix it your self or sell the 10 cars 5 luxury houses to get the cash.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

It'd make a lot of sense just to raise rates by a few cents to start converting it over out from the production points.


Putting old transformers into safe storage etc..


They might as well convert the lines to carry data while they are at it and act as antennas and get CCTV going too.


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## HuntingHawk (Dec 16, 2012)

A solar EMP will happen. Its a question of when & how strong it will be. Same as the earth will get struck by a meteor but a question of when, what size, & its composition.


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## CrossbowJoe (Dec 21, 2014)

HuntingHawk said:


> A solar EMP will happen. Its a question of when & how strong it will be. Same as the earth will get struck by a meteor but a question of when, what size, & its composition.


I agree. But a human generated EMP is more likely. Russia, China, rogue terrorist. It's no secret our grid has weak points. Everything depends on electricity.


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## bigwheel (Sep 22, 2014)

Great point CrossbowJoe. Fox had some talking heads on yesterday seems like. They was a lot more worried about hackers than they was EMPs. In fact never heard it mentioned in the doom and glum they was dispensing.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

If I could take one over the other, I'd go with the EMP over a Geomagnetic Storm. I think we could recover from the EMP in year or so.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

A solar EMP will not affect anything not connected to the grid. You won't need shielding to protect them. The only EMP that will affect electronics is the E1 pulse from a nuclear high altitude (200+ miles high) atomic detonation.

A solar EMP caused by a solar flare will affect a complete hemisphere of the earth - either the north or south hemisphere depending on its polarity. A large Coronal Mass Ejection could affect the entire earth and be much stronger than the EMP from a solar flare. Because these streams of charged particles directly effect the magnetosphere of the planet they can effect more than just the side of the earth facing the sun. Just as the charged particles make a ring of Auroras around the poles of our planet and not just the side facing the sun, a large solar flare will extend the auroras to the lower latitudes around the globe and disrupt the geomagnetic energy causing the EMP.

Solar EMPs cause problems of current rise in long lines which can effect the generators and or the transformers. Most of the large transformers are fitted with electronic high speed switches that protect the equipment from these slow, high power, rises in current which is exactly why they are less protected from the HEMPs. An E1 pulse from the High altitude nuclear detonation will wipe out the electronic switches leaving the system open to the destructive power of the secondary effects of the E2 and E3 pulses. This is why you have to separate solar flares, CMEs and HEMPs. A solar flare typically only produces an E3 pulse, the CME can produce E2 and E3 pulses and the HEMP produces all three E1, E2, and E3 pulses in fairly rapid succession.


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## prepperblueskies (Apr 3, 2015)

This is definitely interesting. Do you know that just last week the sun did have some high activity.

Refer to the following url
NOAA forecasters CME | Emergency Kits and Supplies

We definitely should prepare
Prepper | Emergency Kits and Supplies


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