# how to know when shtf?



## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

I'm wondering what you guys think the cue to say shtf is.


----------



## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

Oh, you will know. It won't be subtle.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Maybe its different for everyone. For me it was August 4, 2009. I closed my business that day, had already cashed out as best I could
and now had to find a way to go from the "normal" life to one self sustained. 

As for economic collapse for all; wait for the news that the dollar is no longer usable for oil on the world market.


----------



## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

It really depends on the situation. If it is a hurricane coming, you will have time to prepare. If it is an earthquake, you will receive no warning, but if you prepared in advance, you will be able to handle the aftermath much better. Riots usually are caused by events which upset certain communities - local TV news coverage can give you a warning that trouble may be brewing. Economic or financial disasters are very hard to predict, but you can monitor these by following the financial news outlets. Chemical releases are very sudden and hard to plan against, but if you live near train tracks or industrial areas you need an escape/evacuation plan. Flooding is common during major storm events, so watching weather reports can give you some warning.

You need to be aware of events happening in your local area - maintaining situational awareness (checking on your surroundings constantly) is one of the best ways to survive in an emergency.


----------



## wesley762 (Oct 23, 2012)

oswegoscott said:


> I always think of SHTF as a massive national disruption


Agreed, I think Natural disasters are just that a disaster. only something on a global scale would be a true SHTF, at least that's how I look at it. If the US falls I am pretty sure we are taking the rest of the world with us.


----------



## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

oswegoscott said:


> I always think of SHTF as a massive national disruption


I see things differently based on prior life experiences. Can you give an example of any recent massive national disruption in the U.S. other than the Civil War that ended in 1865? That would entail something equivalent to a national blackout - which to my knowledge has never happened, and given the disparate power generation sources in this country, may not even be possible?

I lived through Hurricane Andrew and the subsequent lawlessness and looting. When you have entire neighborhoods wiped off the face of the earth, that is literally SHTF, at least in my book.

Rodney King riots in Compton, California - would you consider that SHTF? Earthquakes that collapsed the freeways and bridges in San Francisco Bay Area? Watts riots in the 1960s? Riots in major cities after the Martin Luther King assassination, where entire sections of town were burned to the ground, and Federal buildings were under attack by torch-wielding mobs? Race riots in Tulsa? Does the Federalization of the National Guard qualify? The town of Joplin, Missouri or Greensburg, Kansas devastated by mile-wide tornadoes? Wildfires in the West burning multiple subdivisions to the ground? Would the 1800 people drowned in Hurricane Katrina qualify as SHTF - I'd bet if you ask people in New Orleans that question you may get a different answer?


----------



## Lucky Jim (Sep 2, 2012)

miho said:


> I'm wondering what you guys think the cue to say shtf is.


When the food store shelves are empty or near-empty for day after day!










But if you're a prepper you'll have enough stocked at home to tide you over for at least a week or two until the government can get food refief convoys coming into the cities, so just sit tight til then.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I could never wait for a govt to save me. No way no how. I just don't have the trust in them. Too many strings will be attached or worse.

Store enough food until your crisps can continuously produce, 
Store enough gas to get to your bug out location, and have a back up plan,
Create a BOL that sustains you, protects you, and I'd possible enables you to thrive.



Lucky Jim said:


> When the food store shelves are empty or near-empty for day after day!
> 
> 
> 
> ...


----------



## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

What about those who can't afford bug out location?



Ripon said:


> I could never wait for a govt to save me. No way no how. I just don't have the trust in them. Too many strings will be attached or worse.
> 
> Store enough food until your crisps can continuously produce,
> Store enough gas to get to your bug out location, and have a back up plan,
> Create a BOL that sustains you, protects you, and I'd possible enables you to thrive.


----------



## AsteroidX (Dec 11, 2012)

> What about those who can't afford bug out location?


I use the saying Plan A Plan B Plan C.....Make them and those that are part of your inner group should know the plan.

I think those that have it worst off are peeps in the big cities. Almost impossible to get out and unless your in front of the herd all resources will be gone before you pass by.

I live rurally so I have a completely different set of problems. Budget prepping is not easy and it is a lot of work to set up a sustainable piece of land.

I live in a pre SHTF mindset. I live as if it has I just still get to enjoy some of the amenities of the civilized world while they are still "affordable" hyperinflation is on the way while our net take is going to go down in a big way over the next few months to years. So be prepared for the financial meltdown it will happen. Just gradual enough for most people to not notice there declining quality of life before its too late.

Affording a Bug Out location....Yeah thats easy if your a rural type. But if your a city folk best know someone that is of like mind and have a plan to connect with them if the time comes. Or plan on Bugging in. Much more difficult again if you live in the city with food storage and self defense being the huge priorities. But you should always have a Bug Out plan even if its to a local National Forest Lake area. Pre plan and bury some essential supplies and tools in an out of the way place. Off the cuff those are the best ideas I can come up with. Learn the local edible foods around your BOL. Invest in some cold weather crop seeds and regular heirloom seeds. Once SHTF National Land will hold alot less "No Trespassing" then it does today and the Forest Ranger likely wont be dropping by to check that people have paid there nightly fee when they are armed to the teeth. Or better yet use that as a launchpad to your actual BOL. Youd likely want to be within 10-20 miles of a small community so that if there is a return to some order you can obtain supplies or as things calm down you will have a place to return to. Trade etc. 
Dont be the last one of town is critical to surviving a true SHTF situation where masses of people are displaced.


----------



## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

Miho:

If you cannot afford a place to bug out to (which is understandable, most people cannot) then you need to plan to "shelter in place" where you live. That can involve prepping by stockpiling whatever supplies you can afford (water, food, medicine, hygiene, etc.) and also considering where else you can shelter in an emergency. For instance, if your county or state sets up evacuation centers or public shelters, you should include such locations in your planning. 

When you do not have the private resources it is appropriate to plan to use whatever public resources there are. This could be a local emergency shelter (high school, etc.) or you could plan to make it to a state park and camp out there temporarily until things go back to normal. A decent sized tent and basic camping equipment is a good option for temporary shelter if your primary home is damaged or unsafe.

A single mom with three children could sleep in a four-man tent comfortably. You need four sleeping bags, a cooler for cold food storage, and a camp stove, if this option makes sense for you in your situation. You need to consider bad weather and cold nights in your planning (tarps to help against rain, extra blankets and clothing for warmth and comfort).

I would look into emergency shelter options in case you cannot bug out very far.


----------



## AsteroidX (Dec 11, 2012)

> Store enough gas to get to your bug out location, and have a back up plan


Cant emphasize this enough.

\As your stored gas gets old use it and refill your "stash"


----------



## shadownmss (Nov 13, 2012)

Does anyone here think the SHTF already? Look around........ The rapid loss of freedoms, total disregard for the Constitution, rapid destruction of business and personal wealth through Executive Order and government regulations. Let's not forget the devaluation of our currency due to the Federal Reserve printing money to the tune of 85 BILLION a month, other countries trading oil in currencies other than the dollar............... Well you get the idea........... I think we can reasonably argue the SHTF already.


----------



## miho (Jun 10, 2012)

I have been thinking about that.i got a tent,cooler,thermos.gotta get sleeping bags but got ton of blankets and good coats.I'm prepping to bug in cos i cos i can't afford to do more.my plan.....if i have to leave I'm going to frika.that's near my place,and there's a lake there so we can eat cat fish if we have to.there's plenty of dead trees good for fire.idk if its a good plan but that's all i got so far.in my apt.... not even the guy who cuts the grass believed. me i got about half an acre for a back yard and that's not counting my front and side yard. I'm getting it ready for planting and have my own veggies.wanted chickens but was told they destroy everything .I'm thinking on having a goat for milk. I'm not an expert so I'm counting on advice to become one so any advice is always welcome and if i do it wrong i keep trying till i get it right 


Verteidiger said:


> Miho:
> 
> If you cannot afford a place to bug out to (which is understandable, most people cannot) then you need to plan to "shelter in place" where you live. That can involve prepping by stockpiling whatever supplies you can afford (water, food, medicine, hygiene, etc.) and also considering where else you can shelter in an emergency. For instance, if your county or state sets up evacuation centers or public shelters, you should include such locations in your planning.
> 
> ...


----------



## AsteroidX (Dec 11, 2012)

> I have been thinking about that.i got a tent,cooler,thermos.gotta get sleeping bags but got ton of blankets and good coats.I'm prepping to bug in cos i cos i can't afford to do more.my plan.....if i have to leave I'm going to frika.that's near my place,and there's a lake there so we can eat cat fish if we have to.there's plenty of dead trees good for fire.idk if its a good plan but that's all i got so far.in my apt.... not even the guy who cuts the grass believed. me i got about half an acre for a back yard and that's not counting my front and side yard. I'm getting it ready for planting and have my own veggies.wanted chickens but was told they destroy everything .I'm thinking on having a goat for milk. I'm not an expert so I'm counting on advice to become one so any advice is always welcome and if i do it wrong i keep trying till i get it right


That is a plan you just need to fill in the details. If your in the city make sure your gardening has some concealment to it. Fencing and Beartraps can be a great deterrent and you can keep the Beartraps put up till there needed.


----------



## Blademaker (Feb 22, 2013)

shadownmss said:


> Does anyone here think the SHTF already? Look around........ The rapid loss of freedoms, total disregard for the Constitution, rapid destruction of business and personal wealth through Executive Order and government regulations. Let's not forget the devaluation of our currency due to the Federal Reserve printing money to the tune of 85 BILLION a month, other countries trading oil in currencies other than the dollar............... Well you get the idea........... I think we can reasonably argue the SHTF already.


I agree, only thing missing is hyper-inflation and a run on the banks to remove cash that will be worthless for quite some time.


----------



## Piratesailor (Nov 9, 2012)

Verteidiger said:


> It really depends on the situation. If it is a hurricane coming, you will have time to prepare. If it is an earthquake, you will receive no warning, but if you prepared in advance, you will be able to handle the aftermath much better. Riots usually are caused by events which upset certain communities - local TV news coverage can give you a warning that trouble may be brewing. Economic or financial disasters are very hard to predict, but you can monitor these by following the financial news outlets. Chemical releases are very sudden and hard to plan against, but if you live near train tracks or industrial areas you need an escape/evacuation plan. Flooding is common during major storm events, so watching weather reports can give you some warning.
> 
> You need to be aware of events happening in your local area - maintaining situational awareness (checking on your surroundings constantly) is one of the best ways to survive in an emergency.


True... Or you may never know because it will happen slowly like the erosion of rights. By the time that happens it will be to late for you to react.


----------



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

When our escrow closes in three or so weeks my brother and I will have joint ownership
of 5 sections of property totallying more than 3100 acres of land, interspersed between each
section is public land called "BLM" land. Its free to camp on, most of the time no one bothers
you for shooting on it, but you wouldn't have any rights to it - any more so then the next guy.
However, first come first serve. And that doesn't cost anything.



miho said:


> What about those who can't afford bug out location?


----------



## inceptor (Nov 19, 2012)

I know natural disasters are bad, I live in tornado alley. Still, help is available. Katrina was different than most disasters but most eventually got bussed to shelters. Yes, there were looting and killing but not on a major scale. The Rodney King riots were bad, no doubt about it but those business owners who defended themselves did better than those who didn't. And it was not long term. To get out of that situation, you just had to get out of the area. I lived 3 blocks from the race riots in the 60's. Main St was burning just 3 blocks from my home. That was the hood. We could have left the area and not had worry about it. We did eventually move to suburbia but that was later.

When I think of SHTF, I am looking at no near term or even long term help. The economy collapsing, a govt take over, an invasion or EMP. SHTF to me is your on your own. And when it happens, there will be no mistake. 

Also I don't think the govt take over will be slow and subtle if and when it happens. I could be wrong and I do hope I am but I see them pushing a confrontation making martial law easy to invoke and that will be the end of the constitution.


----------



## oldmurph58 (Feb 8, 2014)

read about katrina. the superdome was like a consentration camp. no food, water, or medicine or protection from the other refugees. might be a bad idea to use govt. help for part of the plan could end up in worse shape


----------



## Riot (Feb 1, 2014)

oldmurph58 said:


> read about katrina. the superdome was like a consentration camp. no food, water, or medicine or protection from the other refugees. might be a bad idea to use govt. help for part of the plan could end up in worse shape


I'm from a small town south of New Orleans by about 60 miles. 
It was lawlessness and yes there was gun confiscation. Some never got their guns back. There missing from what the owners are being told. 
People in the superdome used the bathroom anywhere they wanted like halls, seats, steps, etc. 
they looted the dome. Ripped seats right out the building. Than when the roof failed it got worse. There was from what I recall about eight people that died. Some just from neglect one was stabbed seven times. The rape thing never was proven. There was several witness to rapes yet no victim ever came forward. 
Don't let a progressive ever tell you they won't take your guns away. It is a lie. It happen already by force.


----------



## Grayhawk845 (Feb 6, 2014)

For me, the SHTF when the governemtn and media say "everything is fine, don't worry." that means you're screwed


----------



## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

signs of shtf

1. yousa gonna die.

2. other keener preppers disapear in mass quantities

3. people are dying faster than they are being born and bodies arn't being collected

4. police put themselves on lockdown, the national guard is called in to protect government buildings

5. flights are grounded

6. any major nation goes to war with the us and with conventional forces is on US soil

7. there isn't enough food to feed everyone.

8. you don't have safe water to drink

9. prepping becomes a key to survival instead of sport for survival

10. WROL is ongoing and the courts arn't funcitonable

11. you don't have access to cable, telephone or internet

12. any continental EMP

13. any event which kills more than 100,000 people in a given city

14. you can't breath the air

15. any radioisotope event that contaminates the area you live in

16. the government doesn't tell you what to do

17. the FEMA camps are full and are the greener side

etc..


----------



## Vagabond (Jan 14, 2014)

Read up on eugenics and tell yourself it's not hitting as we speak. Getting rid of those deemed undesirable will take the majority of the people out of the equation through soft eugenics at first as we are doing right now, then later hard eugenics which begin with FEMA camps followed by other events unseen by the general populous that resemble Nazi Germany. Yes, its happening right now and is very subtle. Maybe* one*step will be cleaning up the streets. Get rid of the dirty homeless people nobody will stand by them. After that the gangs. Who will stand by them? Not I. How about the welfare cases? We can definitely do without them. So once again we'll keep silent. As long as it doesn't affect us its not our fight. So when they finally do come for you, there'll be nobody to stand with you. Not me, I'm already rounded up. Not the uber wealthy, to them we're all undesirable. Long term, slow, methodical.


----------



## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Verteidiger said:


> I see things differently based on prior life experiences. Can you give an example of any recent massive national disruption in the U.S. other than the Civil War that ended in 1865? That would entail something equivalent to a national blackout - which to my knowledge has never happened, and given the disparate power generation sources in this country, may not even be possible?


I suggest you google the Spanish flu and read some of the things that happened here in the United States because of it. When researching it remember that at that time a majority of the population still lived in rural areas and small towns, and transportation between different parts of the world was mainly by ocean going ships and could take weeks if not months. Now it is hours. Consider how deadly AIDS was when it first appeared, now think what the result would be if it were transported through the air instead of bodily fluids? What if instead of months or years to kill if it was a matter of days or weeks?

As for the power, going to google once again, check out EMP and the Carrington Event. It was a solar storm in 1859 that knocked out the telegraph system in the United States and most of the rest of the world, Some of the telegraph wires got so hot that they actually set some of the poles on fire and some of the telegraph equipment on fire also. The thing to remember is that a telegraph system is many times more robust then our power grid system. Should the same thing happen today, it would knock out anything with a chip in it, which includes all computers, cars, power stations,communications centers and food distribution. An EMP would have the same affect. It doesn't matter of a power production plant is on line if every transformer and power substation with their transformers blow. Right now the United States gets it's larger transformers from either South Korea or Europe and the average delivery time after being ordered is 1 year. Think what would happen if there wasn't any power, gas, vehicles, trains,water, sanitation systems, food distribution, a way to heat or cool your homes, the means to cook your food (if you had any), no hospitals,garbage pickup, just about every modern convenience. This is entirely possible.


----------



## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Notsoyoung,
A solar EMP will not affect electronics unless they are plugged in and operating at the time of the EMP. Solar EMPs only effect long wire distribution systems and large transformers. The grid will go down and appliances that are in use could receive high voltage spikes but the semiconductors will not be affected unless it is a HEMP (high altitude nuclear EMP).


----------



## younggunner (Feb 11, 2014)

Well when poop is splattered on the walls then you know the shit has hit the fan literally. LOL just trying to lighten up a heavy topic!


----------



## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

PaulS said:


> Notsoyoung,
> A solar EMP will not affect electronics unless they are plugged in and operating at the time of the EMP. Solar EMPs only effect long wire distribution systems and large transformers. The grid will go down and appliances that are in use could receive high voltage spikes but the semiconductors will not be affected unless it is a HEMP (high altitude nuclear EMP).


I beg to differ. In the early 80's I was the Site Chief at a communications site in Germany and went to the briefings and training on EMP and the steps needed at our site to protect equipment from it. Electronic equipment DOES NOT need to be plugged in to be damaged. That was made abundantly clear and was constantly repeated. To prevent damage, electronics have to be stored in a Faraday Cage, which we installed and stored our spare electronic parts in, and stored our test equipment when not in use. After retiring from the military I worked for one of the major national cell phone carriers at several major switching centers. Their answer was to make the whole buildings Faraday cages, as are the equipment in cell sites. As an additional precaution, spare electronic parts in the parts warehouses or stored on site, are stored in Faraday cages for protect against EMP.

As for solar flares affecting only long wire distribution systems and large transformers, even if I agreed with you, what more does it need to cause a catastrophe? Our power system IS a long wire distribution system, and as I said, the large transformers we use we get from either South Korea or Europe, and right now it takes 1 year to get it after it is ordered. That is for ONE. How about every large transformer in the World burning out at the same time. By the way, burying the power lines underground will not protect them.


----------



## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

An E-1 pulse is the only pulse that can destroy semiconductors without them being connected to the grid. The E-2 and E-3 pulses that are in solar events do not have a short enough wave-length and a fast enough rise time to affect disconnected electronics. The HEMP is the only way to generate an E-1 pulse.


----------



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

miho said:


> What about those who can't afford bug out location?


think.outside the box bro...

even bols have risks and issue, understand what your risks are and act accordingly...

to know when dose shtf... I can't really say, you will know


----------



## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

When you see the local liberals making save me signs. It may be time to lock down


----------



## Reptilicus (Jan 4, 2014)

When the guvment tells you everything is fine, we'll take care of it! Sound familiar! It's closer than we know!


----------



## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Anytime the facts don't line up with the events the S is HTF someplace.

When your known world is coming down around you it has happened and you have some cleaning to do.


----------

