# Recession?



## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

With copper at the four year low resistance point it seems we are due for a new global recession. Silver being both an industrial and a hedge has not been able to return to its former glory days. Russia with its threats to Europe has dashed any hope of an European recovery. China's devaluation of its currency has cut the throats of commodity deals made by Australian companies thus making them unprofitable. These events have made the US dollar stronger thus hurting our ability to export.

So I have a couple of questions:

Why have PMs failed to increase in value? Both silver and gold have been poor investments over the last two to four years. This is counter to the claims of those pushing them. If they are true hedges for all of the above plus QEs should PMS have pushed their prices higher.

Why is the dollar stronger in terms of almost any measurement (other currencies, PMs and other commodities).

Will in several months economist announce we are in a recession that started in March maybe before as I predict.

WITH all that has happened why haven't we seen some currencies collapse as so many peppers have predicted some day would happen?

Not much seems to be going as planned by either the peppers or the liberals. WHY


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## nephilim (Jan 20, 2014)

In the UK, Gold and silver (along with other PMs) have gone up. Total cost for me buying my PMs was around £2000 5 years ago(ish), they have a current value of around £4500...


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## Pir8fan (Nov 16, 2012)

I do know that we are seeing a definite softening of the economy in our area. My CPA firm has about 500 small business clients and almost all of them are telling us that they don't expect 2014 results to match 2013 results.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Nephilim:

Over the past four years the £ has varied from less than $1.45 to over $1.65/£. When I worked in the UK It was $1.95/£. So all that muddies the water a bit. How has PMs varied in £ since mid-2010? You might have stumbled on to something here. Playing the PM market using currency fluctuations. I have always said your Queen was smart not to drop the £.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

As the value of the dollar increases the price of gold - in dollars - goes down. Gold has a fixed value - only the price fluctuates because the value of the money changes with inflation and deflation. If you want to know how much inflation has occurred then look at the price of gold in the late 1800s and compare it with the price of gold today. The golds value hasn't changed - the value of the dollar has. Gold has a value of $20 (in 1890 dollars) but the dollar is worth less than 1/65 of what it was in 1890.

The value of the dollar fluctuates hourly in today's world market and as more countries dump the dollar for other currencies our dollar will fluctuate more and inflate at a higher pace than ever before.

Inflation and deflation are the reasons for the price fluctuations in precious metals.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

PalmettoTree said:


> Not much seems to be going as planned by either the peppers or the liberals. WHY


Palmetto,
You last sentence is perplexing to me in relation to the rest of your post. Are you saying that the overall world economy is better than liberals or preppers predicted or worse?


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I would say PM's were propped up by QE. Quantitative easing forced money to be put some where and while we all sit back and recall "QE" there were other measures taken by the FED ahead of QE that impacted Gold/Silver quite significantly; the reduction of borrowing costs for example. It became less expensive (I kid you not) for a large corp to borrow money and buy their stocks then pay corporate income taxes on its profits and buy the stock. They could then use corporate profits to retire debt tax free. As QE and prior measures have worn down and become less and less available there was less to put into PM's.


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## Go2ndAmend (Apr 5, 2013)

I don't think anyone living in either Greece, Argentina or Brazil would agree that the economy isn't failing. While I still believe we in the U.S. could easily fall into a much worse economy, (hence preparing) I would be quite happy if it never came to pass.


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## dsdmmat (Nov 9, 2012)

Why have PMs failed to increase in value? Both silver and gold have been poor investments over the last two to four years. This is counter to the claims of those pushing them. If they are true hedges for all of the above plus QEs should PMS have pushed their prices higher.
There could be a couple of reasons for this: The economies of the world are not strong enough for the demand to be higher. When people have to make a decision to buy food or PMs they tend to buy food. Demand for PMs is not what the speculators predicted and there is an overage of supply. I read one report that sivler was trading at a lower price than it cost to mine and process it.

Why is the dollar stronger in terms of almost any measurement (other currencies, PMs and other commodities).
This is also puzzling to me. I dont understand why a currency based upon nothing but faith is worth anything to anyone. The only theory that I can come up with is that oil is traded in dollars. As long as oil continues to be traded in only dollars then the dollar will remain the currency of choice through out the world. I have never been to another country where they would refuse to take the USD. Kuait was very expensive at 4 Dollars to one Kuaiti Dinar but they still would accept it anywhere I went.

Will in several months economist announce we are in a recession that started in March maybe before as I predict. UNK

WITH all that has happened why haven't we seen some currencies collapse as so many peppers have predicted some day would happen? Again I suspect that our currency hasn't collapsed because it is tied to oil. I am not so sure that the Euro will survive the next decade with all the internal strife in the EU I wouldn't be suprised if it desolved into something different altogether. Kind of like the changes our country went through getting rid of the Articles of Confederation.

*my thoughts on the questions, I am not an economist so i have no inside information on any of it, just speculation based upon what I have seen and read.


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Keep things in proper perspective. In 1939 we'd just gone off the gold standard thanks to Frankie Roosevelt (another great president). Our money was still backed with silver dollars. In the 1939 Stoeger catalog a Colt 1911A1 in .45 ACP sold for $41.50. At $22/ounce - which approximates a silver dollar - it ought to be worth almost $900 today. according to gun broker a new one is selling for 999. So it seems like when you look at tangible goods, gold and silver both have kept their value really well. as opposed to our paper dollars


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## pastornator (Apr 5, 2013)

Slippy said:


> Palmetto,
> You last sentence is perplexing to me in relation to the rest of your post. Are you saying that the overall world economy is better than liberals or preppers predicted or worse?


Not my question to answer, but yes...


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## nephilim (Jan 20, 2014)

PalmettoTree said:


> Nephilim:
> 
> Over the past four years the £ has varied from less than $1.45 to over $1.65/£. When I worked in the UK It was $1.95/£. So all that muddies the water a bit. How has PMs varied in £ since mid-2010? You might have stumbled on to something here. Playing the PM market using currency fluctuations. I have always said your Queen was smart not to drop the £.


in 2010, gold was around £1070 per ounce, today it is around £1450 per ounce
in 2010, silver was around £16 per ounce, today it is around £21.50 per ounce
in 2010, Platinum was around £1380 per ounce, today it is around £1430 per ounce
in 2010, copper was around £12 per kilo, today it is around £20 per kilo

Whilst I wont tell you how much of each I have (you can find that elsewhere on the site), I have made plenty on PMs, but dont plan to sell out.

As for keeping the £, that was a UK referendum, we were given the choice to join the Euro or keep the £. We chose to keep the £ as we all thought we would be fudged otherwise (plus large nationalism for keeping the £!).


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

pastornator said:


> Not my question to answer, but yes...


Yes I'm saying the predictions of preppers is not going as those plans sold to preppers. The same goes for liberals. But I am not putting them in a like basket. No insult intended to us preppers.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

nephilim said:


> in 2010, gold was around £1070 per ounce, today it is around £1450 per ounce
> in 2010, silver was around £16 per ounce, today it is around £21.50 per ounce
> in 2010, Platinum was around £1380 per ounce, today it is around £1430 per ounce
> in 2010, copper was around £12 per kilo, today it is around £20 per kilo
> ...


Gold hit high of $1,800 mid-2011 and is less than $1,400 about 2010 the price was about equal to today.
Silver hit high of $45.83 mid-2011 and is less than $20.00 about 2010 the price was about equal to today.

Clearly the exchange rates make our comparisons different.


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

dsdmmat said:


> Why have PMs failed to increase in value? Both silver and gold have been poor investments over the last two to four years. This is counter to the claims of those pushing them. If they are true hedges for all of the above plus QEs should PMS have pushed their prices higher.
> There could be a couple of reasons for this: The economies of the world are not strong enough for the demand to be higher. When people have to make a decision to buy food or PMs they tend to buy food. Demand for PMs is not what the speculators predicted and there is an overage of supply. I read one report that sivler was trading at a lower price than it cost to mine and process it.
> 
> Why is the dollar stronger in terms of almost any measurement (other currencies, PMs and other commodities).
> ...


The point in paragraph one is PMs are commodities and their prices behave like commodities. Your words support this.

Paragraph 2: The US dollar is strong because among the monies of the globe it is most accepted and holds the greatest confidence. Oil is quoted in dollars because of this. The US dollar is not worth nothing bread cost $1.75 to $3.50 substitute any thing you want to buy and the US dollar is worth $1/that price. The US dollar is not worth nothing. This is the fundamental thing most people do not understand about money. So the US dollar is worth .57 of a loaf of store brand bread. A regular gal. of gas cost me $3.19 yesterday. So the US dollar was worth .31 gal. Of gas yesterday? The US dollar is not worth nothing and is worth much more today in £ or € than it was when I was there last.

Paragraph 3: the European countries that changed to the euro did not do so because their currencies collapsed. I do not know ant prep peers that predicted any currency collapse except the US dollar. When others did collapse they used those as proof that we are headed there. The strength of the US dollar says otherwise. In my opinion oil is quoted and traded in US dollars because of its strength as money not the other way around. You are correct in that if another currency becomes stronger than the US dollar oil might trade in that money and that would make the dollar even weaker.


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