# To Bug Out or Not ........ THAT is the question?



## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

I've been thinking a lot about this lately. In particular, what options will I have when the balloon goes up. I am slowly changing my mind into putting most of my efforts into staying put and trying to make a go of it right here. 

But I am jealous of a friend who lives over in the foothills of the Smokies-- I think he has what amounts to a great setup to ride out whatever comes our way. He is "far from the beaten path" or at least I get the feeling he is. He is also far from the dreaded east coast, where most of the shit will happen. He has some acreage. His neighbors are few. He has a good source of wildlife, and fish (a nice lake just down the hill from his house) -- and probably very good soil for one heck of a nice garden. He has plenty of firewood around him. I am a bit curious though as to how far away from major cities he is (I think he is south of Knoxville)? And when the panic and rioting hits those cities, would they flee into his area?

Baring that last possibility (of an invasion from the city hordes), if I were him, I wouldn't even consider having to bug-out to some other place. I would make my stand right there. And if that all turns to hell, then life probably ain't worth living anymore anyway.

Here, north of Richmond, I've got a few more concerns. One nuclear event in Washington, COULD impact me in-so-far as fallout. Possibility it wouldn't but just as much of a chance it would. Like I had said somewhere else, I'd rather be eaten by a shark than die of radiation poisoning. So, logic tells me that, if a fallout threatens, an escape to the Blue Ridges would be prudent. But, unless we DO have some kind of nuclear/Bio/Chemical attack -- I think I will forego the idea of bugging out. Therefore, I am going to spend the next year really beefing up my home for an extended siege. We have forests, we have streams, we have wildlife -- just not as abundant as my friend in Tennessee. Not a day goes by that we don't see four or five deer in and amongst our neighborhood. The other wildlife we see daily are plenty of rabbits, squirrels, and every once in a while a fox. I can't say I've seen quail, doves, or pheasants here -- but surely they must be close? Yes, I know ..... this wildlife would thin out pdq. But right now, it is plentiful. 

I have about 6 neighbors -- that I know of -- that are armed to the teeth. (As I don't know everyone, there has to be more.) One of them, who I would elect as our leader, is a former cop, former Dept Sheriff, and now in the National Guard as an aircraft mechanic (two tours to Iraq under his belt). He is a tough hombre, and would be damn good at leading our defense - at least this is what I think right now. About 6 years ago, when he was still a Dept Sheriff, he impressed the heck out of me with his quick responses to searching out some vandals in our area. He was on top of it! So, anyway, I think we could form a pretty decent neighborhood militia right here. And the other nice thing is we have kind of natural barriers into our neighborhood. Unless people are willing to go through extremely thick and hilly woods, there are only two entrances into our area, about 1/8 of a mile apart, off of the same highway. Both of these could be relatively easily defended, depending of course on how large the opposing threat is. 

Ok -- just some rambling thoughts on a dreary Monday morning ................


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## Moonshinedave (Mar 28, 2013)

Seems no matter how well suited we are, there is always someone who seems to be in better shape if the SHTF. I know I read of members on here who have lots more land in a better location than I have. I figure you just have to play the cards we are dealt. I've never considered bugging out, of course, is something should happen that your area was no longer safe or livable then a person has to do what they have to do.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)

What you do depends on what you have where you are under a certain specific set of conditions. I plan on staying put unless I have an unimaginable set of circumstances.
I have water (Steam), a small amount of land with wildlife. Fruit and nut trees. Ample space for a survival garden and medicinal herbs.


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

If your near Richmond you will get fall out and tons of it. Look at me here in Montana Far from everything right ? Wrong Missile Silos and Malmstrom Air Base which does something with missiles. I am not prepping for Nukes, We just won't survive. I am staying put for all other occasions


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

Jeep said:


> If your near Richmond you will get fall out and tons of it. Look at me here in Montana Far from everything right ? Wrong Missile Silos and Malmstrom Air Base which does something with missiles. I am not prepping for Nukes, We just won't survive. I am staying put for all other occasions


Yeah I agree about Richmond. But a lot of depends on just what the nuclear event is. If it is suitcase bomb from a terrorist -- the fallout may be minimal and allow for a quick escape. If however, it is a nuclear exchange with the Ruskies, fogetaboutit -- we are all toast. *Alas Babylon*


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

True. However any Nuke incident weapon wise gets detonated here its on and crackin, DC will take a dozen to go for sure


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

The question is age old, if your lucky enough to survive for 3 months bugging in then you stand a better chance of long term survival, but its all in the timing

If you have your own bol (like a lot of people here do) then you bug out to the bol, but in reality your bugging in

Everyone is different, everyone has their own needs, sometimes large blocks, and better set up people come up (I'm miles away from having the stockpiles that they have on DDP) but at the end of the day, my primary focus is me and mine, this group may increase in size but that's all I care about, if I care about every "friend" I'm opening myself up to lots of unwanted drama and back stabbing

So to bug out or bug in?? If i had my own land/pre set location with 90% of my stores i would bug out asap, but i dont, so the longer i can bug in the better.... 

But land is on the cards, if i purchase a block, then as soon as the early alarms go off, im there, bugging out is all about timing


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

The idea of ration from a nuclear detonation scares the crap out people and rightly so. But only 25% of the US population would die in an all out exchange with another nuclear power. Another 25% would die from fallout. That leaves 50% of the people that will live but without supplies, knowledge, etc. might wish they had gone up with the bombs. Here are some good sites to learn from. The last one shows how a detonation in your area will spread and effect you.
Nuclear Fallout -Nomograph Information- Computing Shelter Stay time
Radiation Protection Topics | Radiation Protection | US EPA
Understanding Radiation - Radiation Emergency Medical Management
NUKEMAP by Alex Wellerstein


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## PalmettoTree (Jun 8, 2013)

Hold in place.
Assess 
Plan
Action


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## Alpha Mike Foxtrot (Sep 2, 2014)

Our groups here have wrestled with this for a few years now. It seems to boil down to the temperament of your specific, immediate area. There are a myriad of events that could cause us to sound our personal SHTF alarm. And soon after that point, we are subject to the frog in boiling water scenario. We have ran many scenarios where we slowly trade off our sovereignty to purchase safety....even if it is against our will. When the sheriff comes with his deputies to take your cattle because folks in town are hungry....what will you say or do? They only want a few, after all. You see, it all can go to hell slowly. Being a player in the local game, being on the radar, is where the risk is. It won't always be "bands of roving marauders" that we have to contend with. All water sources, food sources, fuel sources, weapons, and medical supplies will become community property* with or without *rule of law. It is a fantasy to believe that law enforcement will not be the ones ordered to rob us for the "greater good" of the community. Whatever remains of local government will feel it is their duty to do so and the unprepared will be demanding that they do just that. They will do this under the guise of maintaining order and protecting the people.

However, that sphere of influence is very small. When fuel and supplies are dwindling, they will not send 15 men and 5 helicopters into a random direction in hopes of finding a BOL that may or may not exist. Being off grid means a ton more than not using public utilities and Facebook. It means being off the radar....out of sight, out of mind.

Now that describes life at my BOL, mind you. Here, closer to town, I have no choice. I have to play along. Yes Sir, whatever you say, Sir. So yes, I am a huge advocate of having a BOL and splitting at a moments notice....I can afford to be wrong, ...to jump the gun. I just come home and go about my life. Its waiting a minute too long to leave that blows the whole plan. And as far as addressing NBC survival, well I don't even want to go there. For all three, you are either in range or out of range. Which way is the wind blowing? Are infected refugees coming this way? We can stockpile efforts to mitigate NBC attacks, but covering all the bases there, for the amount of time needed, is a daunting task.


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## 3forus (Sep 8, 2014)

one question I ask is why are you living were you do if you don't think it's a good place to be? I'm not being snarky or anything , I'm just curious. I had made my choice of my lifestyle from a very young age. All my elder family members were and are farmers first, with most of them with a blue job. for instance all but one member worked off farm in the trades, they made good money as they built up their way of life. This is the path I chose also, I could take a job with very good pay in a city but I choose to earn less and live the life I want to, at times money means squat and I think we are heading there again, it will be the survival of the fittest again, so that $100,000 job is going to be worthless is you have no means to keep your soul or family together, you have to have balance in life, and you need to keep expectations at a minimum level so every day is a good day. My kids are smart, a few are still in college, but all of them agree they had a happy childhood here on the farm. None of them did anything outside of school activities,and farm work and 4H and that was what I wanted of my family life. I didn't need a big paycheck to make me feel good I needed my family and making memories and spending time with loved ones more, and keeping to the basics. 
And I have said this more than anything in my life is you NEED a farmer 3 times a day, You Need a doctor or a lawyer maybe 3 times in your life for survival.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

DerBiermeister said:


> Yeah I agree about Richmond. But a lot of depends on just what the nuclear event is. If it is suitcase bomb from a terrorist -- the fallout may be minimal and allow for a quick escape. If however, it is a nuclear exchange with the Ruskies, fogetaboutit -- we are all toast. *Alas Babylon*


Any way you slice it, I wouldn't care to reside anywhere within 100 miles of DC. Call me skittish, but depending on the direction of the wind for my protection makes me sweat. They couldn't protect the World Trade towers or the Pentagon, despite advance warning, so how can you figure they can protect an entire city. The way I figure it, the biggest threats are 1...terrorists with a nuke, 2...same with a bio bomb. In either case, the further away the better. The best places in the world are places with nothing worth attacking nearby.

I live in an area that fits that, but even so I'm prepping for any flood of refugees from the nearest big cities. The chance of epidemic worries me. You can't wave a meter over germs and get a reading.

And AMF, you're right. At some point it'll go there. For that I'm grateful I'm not a farmer, but I have enough land to support our family in any case. I've also got lots of relatives in the area ( 200 or so...). You could say we form about 1% of the local population  . I still worry about the cops and how they will play it out, if any are still on the job. I just don't know... There are a LOT of farmers in this region.

Another thing we will all have to deal with is our code of ethics- if shtf, and we need some things desparately in order to survive, do we go ahead with looting like everyone else? Do we confine our shopping trips to certain national corps who have spent years feeding on us? I'm going to spend plenty of time figurring out where the fences lie.


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

What makes anyone think LEO's will be on the job after SHTF. I wouldn't be, I would be on my way to take care of my own, job be damned. During Y2K I went to work armed to the teeth, plus had tools and gear. If something went down 3 of us were leaving together to go get our loved ones and get.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

Jeep said:


> What makes anyone think LEO's will be on the job after SHTF. I wouldn't be, I would be on my way to take care of my own, job be damned. During Y2K I went to work armed to the teeth, plus had tools and gear. If something went down 3 of us were leaving together to go get our loved ones and get.


I figure that a certain percentage will be still be in place. Depends on how heavily an area is involved in the main cause of the shtf and how heavily religious people are. So, it's a firm 'maybe'. In D.C. I figure the percentage a whisper above zero. In NYC, it would be closer to 10%, given the cops I've met. There's always going to be a certain number trying to make a stand for the status quo by pretending that nothing's happening. I sure wish there was some way to insure that the internet would survive. I guess you're going to be one sorry prepper if you don't have a ham radio. CB is okay, but not for long range nets.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

If I bug out I wonder off into a world full of people wandering aimlessly . Days filled with a lot of unknowns.
If I Bug in. I have a plan, what is need to carry out the plan. I have security, food and shelter . A group ready to work together.
There maybe a lot of unknowns still but We have a much better chance of dealing with them HERE


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## RNprepper (Apr 5, 2014)

The biggest risk of bugging out, in my opinion, is that once you get to the BOL, you may find it is already taken over or looted by someone else. As soon as you leave your home base, you are basically saying good-bye, as that will most likely be looted or taken over as soon as you go. I plan to stay put if at all possible. My BOL is well stocked, and should we find ourselves there when the SHTF, we will be OK. But leaving one location for another could mean finding oneself stuck in between and losing _both _locations.


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

So LEO's are working for free? Won't be any direct deposit or HR personnel about. again depending on what happens


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## mack0369 (Jul 22, 2014)

I wrestle with the same, especially because of my location. In MA, 50 miles west of Boston, suburban setting, but I'm on a lake with only a causeway to the small island I live on. I'm supplied for 6 months no problem, and guarantee I have more in offensive capability, training, and defense than 99.9% of the population out there. But, I know my neighbors will not be prepared, and the houses are right on top of each other. I'm thinking I'm too close to Boston, and being as urban as it is, there would simply be too many people with not enough resources. Only big problem, BOL is 350 miles away, only thing I've got now. Rock and a hard place. 

I liked the post earlier:

In place
Assess 
Decide (based on severity)


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## Alpha Mike Foxtrot (Sep 2, 2014)

I totally agree. It depends on the nature of the events or scenario that unfolds. There seems to be plans for continuity of government even at local levels. Some official would assume control and deputize whoever he wanted. Emergency services would collapse but the void of law enforcement would be filled quickly, even if to enforce their own new laws. 

Keep in mind please, I am talking about your smaller towns here. 

This would make a great topic, by the way, "What SHTF scenarios would lead to emergency services immediately abandoning their posts?"


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## Jeep (Aug 5, 2014)

Well in the town of Three Forks, there were only 3-4 cops at any given time....total, not on duty, the town did away with the PD in favor of the Sherrifs Dept. But from 6 am till 10pm there is no Deputy on duty in the town. Bozeman is 30k plus pop. Belgrade is 7k plus, one town between Three Forks and Belgrade is Manhattan, again 4 cops total. I think if its bad all assets are going to Bozeman and Belgrade, if any go at all


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## mack0369 (Jul 22, 2014)

I was in New Orleans right after Katrina hit. Once the batteries ran out and comm was down, emergency services personnel were nowhere to be found. Honestly can't say I blame them. We rolled down with a truckload of any and everything you could want or need. Was not with the Marine Corps, we ran down there on our own, it was so nasty that I cannot blame anyone for one minute for "abandoning" their posts. Ill-equipped and ill-trained for that type of situation. We went down with everything we would need. While New Orleans was a bit extreme, I think it would take a little less than most think for a lot of PD and FD to go to their families than stay on the job


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## Alpha Mike Foxtrot (Sep 2, 2014)

Our city pop. is about 6000. Our whole county (360 sq. mi.) pop. is about 30,000. We are 20 to 30 miles away from the next town of any size. There is another small town about 15 miles from here, though. These other cities are outside of this county. When we have our festivals and such, the county pop. becomes the city pop. and all hell breaks loose. Many times, all it takes is a big Friday night to fill the jails up. We have one State police building outside of town with two troopers.....we have 10 sheriff's deputies.....and in town 9 city officers. That's 2,10,9 total. At any given time that is 1, 2, 2 on duty. We actually voted to get rid of two stop lights on Main St. and we did...lol. As you can see, the lion's share of the pop. lives outside the city limits. Now for the unprepared, that means 99% of the resources are inside the city limits. Folks out in the country here seem to always be pissed at the people that live in town on a good day. If a dozen convoys of good ole boys come to town for mayonnaise in a SHTF scenario, I bet they will leave with it. I wouldn't want to be the one that shot 50 people in the front yard to protect my Hellmann's. Mainly because you become "the guy in that house that shot Ricky". Its over, they will come back with 500 and burn you out. A person has to get the hell outta dodge. They will not waste the gas or effort to search for mayonnaise way up in the boonies. They don't even know you exist at that point.


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## Alpha Mike Foxtrot (Sep 2, 2014)

Yeah I can certainly see the futility of staying on duty in a large population. Even with all hands on deck and reserves called in, it would be a lost cause. The gridlock and panic would render their effectiveness null and void.


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## Will2 (Mar 20, 2013)

if the bombs go off it really doesn't matter where you are we're all f#@(%ed


now don't get me wrong I'm not saying everybody is going to die but I'm saying that it doesn't matter where you are based upon the aftermath of something of that scale it's not going to be pretty even if you're hidingunder the Smokies


some people may be able to live relatively good for around 6 months but after that things will get rough

more question of how fast you are going to die and from what

not much different from today


in regards towhen to bug out just a question of when you will die if you stay or your situationwe already are living shtf if we are planningfor it the reason we are planning is because it is our destructionif we fail to plan for it.


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## thepeartree (Aug 25, 2014)

mack0369 said:


> I was in New Orleans right after Katrina hit. Once the batteries ran out and comm was down, emergency services personnel were nowhere to be found. Honestly can't say I blame them. We rolled down with a truckload of any and everything you could want or need. Was not with the Marine Corps, we ran down there on our own, it was so nasty that I cannot blame anyone for one minute for "abandoning" their posts. Ill-equipped and ill-trained for that type of situation. We went down with everything we would need. While New Orleans was a bit extreme, I think it would take a little less than most think for a lot of PD and FD to go to their families than stay on the job


Yep,it doesn't matter what we can imagine, our actions will be guided by the situation at the moment of shtf. About all we can do is make what seem to us to be reasonable preps to cover what we can. Can we do better? Of course. But maybe at some point we say 'Well, that's the best we can hope for today. Let's try to do better tomorrow.'. Then tomorrow will come and hand us something unexpected. We still have to do Tue best we can. I can see, though, that location is close to being the most important thing. Location can turn a lost cause of too little into something survivable.


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## DerBiermeister (Aug 15, 2014)

I think there are four kinds of SHTF. First there is the natural disaster kind like Katrina where LOCALLY it is hell on earth, and lasting for quite a while ... BUT each day the light at the end of the tunnel shines a little bit brighter. I am not just talking to talk -- my family (mother, brother, sisters, their families) survived Katrina. 7 family homes were destroyed, with 6 being rebuilt. Took a couple of years. In the first few weeks, looting on a grand scale was one of the biggest problems, in addition to lack of fresh water, etc.

Secondly, there is a man-made kind, but again confined primarily to a relatively small area -- think one city here. But FEAR will spread quickly, and disrupt our normal life across the land for months to come. But again, we will slowly dig ourselves out and eventually get back to normal. 

Third, there is civilian confrontation. This can be anywhere from bad rioting in certain cities, to a true civil war throughout the land. The biggest problem facing us in this situation is disruption of food and other services. The grid may eventually go down across the land. 

Finally, there is the OH SHIT kind. This is the one where human life throughout the world will be severely jeopardized. Think cataclysmic event like what wiped out the dinosaurs. Super volcano Yellowstone blowing (it already is supposedly some 60,000 years behind schedule), or a large asteroid colliding with earth, or a nuclear war with China or Russia. 

Four distinct levels of calamity that we try to prepare for. I think we all hope that whatever comes our way will at least be contained in the first or second or even third, as those are survivable. Category 4 is pretty much hopeless. Whether you live a few days or a few months .. to quote a "revered" lady (er ...... bitch), "What difference does it make?". One man's opinion here, but in the 4th scenario, I hope I am atomized/vaporized in the first picosecond.


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## Notsoyoung (Dec 2, 2013)

Ideally your "if the SHTF" place is where you now live. You have your supplies in place and your home as prepared as you can. Unfortunately many people have to live where their work is, after all, you have to survive BEFORE and emergency too, and that often means that you have to make some hard choices. Many people have a BOL away from where they presently live, that they have prepared and stored supplies. As mentioned earlier, a possible problem with that is that you wait too late to get to it and either you are unable to make it there at all or someone gets there before you. The obvious answer to that problem is to be vigilant and take off for that location as soon as you get a hint of something going down and being in place before it really hits the fan. To me this is also a good plan, just not as good as living already in a good place. Then finally there are the people who are just planning on loading up a backpack, heading out into the country, and living off the land. Frankly I think this would be nothing more then an act of desperation such as your BOL burning down or has been overrun.


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## big paul (Jul 14, 2014)

most British preppers think i have bugged out already due to my location, i would only bug out from here if this place was somehow compromised by say fire, flooding is not an option as we are on the high ground-this is hill country.


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## SquirrelBait (Jun 6, 2014)

No one is saying it so I will. Depending on the level of SHTF, The nuke plants will not wait to be serviced. We may end up fried any way. Short of that? I'm hunkering down due to medical considerations.


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