# planning phases



## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

don't need/want to know the details but this has caused a line of thought that needs to be discussed/argued, even thought about

but what are your plans triggers?? (eg phase 1-2) and do you plan this way?

my understanding of the concept is each phase corresponds with a trigger so rough sound boarding here

so as such will pick a not so random local level event

phase one, the trigger (record wild fire warnings, I'm using fire as it effects most of us and a fresh event for most) 

so get kit ready, be alarmed but not active

phase 2, danger is close, (firefighters are using pa systems, radio stations, requesting early evac of your area)

so move move move

phase 3??? evac plans in motion??

phase 4?? danger is gone time to rebuild?? 

idk phase planning stumps me, full me in??


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## Casie (Feb 26, 2014)

This reminds me of my 2 favorite quotes on panicking!

From D.D. Barant's Back from the Undead:

*Paranoia is just the bastard child of fear and good sense." (Charlie)

"Poor thing. Let's adopt it, give it a last name and raise it right." (Jace)

"You want to get it a puppy, too?"

"Sure. We'll call it Panic. It and little Paranoia can play together at the park and scare the hell out of all the other kids."*

Author unknown:

*He who panics first, panics best.*

Everyone's situation is different so of course everyone's plans will be different.

In my case, If I am leaving (buggin' out) that implies that there are places that are much better off than where I am now. As in your example of a wildfire. In that case, I'm really not too worried. I'm grabbing a bag, my family, the cat, some cash, and the plastic, and we're headed to a nice La Quinta. I'll deal with what's left after the fires are out.

What I really worry about is the situations where there is no buggin' out, because there is no better place to be. I fear a big stinking economic collapse, followed by a food shortage, power outage, lawlessness, and gestapo-like government.

Step 1:
My first reaction is no biggie and I can subtly practice it any time. Does the gate still close? Is the lock and chain where it is suppose to be? How fast can I block it with the Jeep and run back to the house? _I do this occasionally._

Step 2:
My next reactions I've never practiced, because they are not so subtle. But the general plan is to grab the plywood out of the workshop and board up all the downstairs windows and doors, leaving the only access in or out from the second floor deck. Set up the cheap Harbor Freight solar panels to run some lights at night if we are without power. Hold out for a few days and listen to the radio to see if the situation is improving or declining. _I would have to see local news reports or actual evidence of trouble in my area to trigger this response._

Step 3:
If it's not getting better, it's time to carefully check on my three neighbors and see if everyone is ok and has water. _If after a few days things have not blown over, it's time to switch to the long game._

Step 4:
Try not to starve or get killed until things improve. _This is the long game._

That's my (completely useless to anyone else) SHTF plans.


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

yea I'm just trying to work out this style of planning

steeps are simple and I would plan a similar way, but phase planning has me stumped


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

For me it goes 
Recognition.
Movement 
Site prep (I believe any predeveloped site just has to large a footprint to avoid notice I can very easily fit everything I need for my family in a cross country tow behind trailer 15ft)
Survival mode 6 months (scum will have self selected at this point have contingency out to 18months)
Return to homestead (caches buried for later retrieval)
Reestablish homestead Connect with survivors 
Prosper 
Very rough outline


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

ApexPredator said:


> For me it goes
> Recognition.
> Movement
> Site prep (I believe any predeveloped site just has to large a footprint to avoid notice I can very easily fit everything I need for my family in a cross country tow behind trailer 15ft)
> ...


is this done on phases or is this steep by steep??

as steep by steep makes perfect sense to me, phases have me completely lost when it comes to prepper planning, but brilliant example


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

Hum guess I dont understand what the question was. Do you mean like step by step like shit the news load the truck dodge checkpoints get into the woodline build shelter begin rationing supplies/limiting work ensure camo is good set out traps day 3. Like that to me a phase is a whole area of step by steps consolidated into one goal such as recognition kinda in that phase right now and it includes watching commodity prices and police/government actions awaiting food shortage etc.


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

my question is more what exactly is phase planning?? is my example right or just a wild shot in the dark?? and people that plan using this method to give a extremely rough example  just so I can the concept


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

I do not really understand the whole "phase prepping" concept. I mean, how do you tell when you are leaving phase 1 and entering phase 2? Life does not really seem to have these finely delineated things. Plus, with your history of firefighting etc., you know that NOTHING ever unfolds according to plan. So, I just make a primary plan for each scenario that I expect, then make 2-3 more plans to back out when that scenario proves to be wrong. Maintaining flexibility is the key in my arrogant opinion.


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

Well then phase planning would be just that planning the phases it would omit the details and focus on the overall plan you would use it in the initial planning to get your goals set out what you want to do and basically how you want to do it then you would deep dive each phase and figure out how to do it or develop a course of action for each phase. Its all very fluid and one planning method isn't exactly better than the other it really depends on your familiarity with it and your ability to recognize its strengths and weaknesses.


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Inor said:


> I do not really understand the whole "phase prepping" concept. I mean, how do you tell when you are leaving phase 1 and entering phase 2? Life does not really seem to have these finely delineated things. Plus, with your history of firefighting etc., you know that NOTHING ever unfolds according to plan. So, I just make a primary plan for each scenario that I expect, then make 2-3 more plans to back out when that scenario proves to be wrong. Maintaining flexibility is the key in my arrogant opinion.


there is a dumbed down version with firefighting, but its based on available assets, first response to 10th response (first response is getting to scene, 10th is all hell has happened.. but in that setup its call reinforcements, put them to work, can more reinforcements, and pattern continues until enough assets are on scene)

and yep I agree maintain flexibility, I'm just trying to work out the concept of it... and weather its worth incorporating it into the "guidelines" but I'm still lost lol


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

ApexPredator said:


> Well then phase planning would be just that planning the phases it would omit the details and focus on the overall plan you would use it in the initial planning to get your goals set out what you want to do and basically how you want to do it then you would deep dive each phase and figure out how to do it or develop a course of action for each phase. Its all very fluid and one planning method isn't exactly better than the other it really depends on your familiarity with it and your ability to recognize its strengths and weaknesses.


do you have a example of this bro?? (just to get my head around your view??)


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## ApexPredator (Aug 17, 2013)

Hmm like the 7 phases i mentioned before and again the strengths of the planning method are clear goals objectives and transitions its biggest weakness is flexibility.
for example phase one. Recognition. still rough fyi.
This phase(for me) is recognizing escalated public tensions ie rioting food shortages increased gang violence once enforcement agencies are on full defensive mode ie no longer trying to quell riots in seedier parts of town hanging on to infrastructure only basically retreating from mob violence that is 95% of phase 1 for me once that violence leaves high population density areas its time to go camping. the benefits to this is I have clear red flags and clear evac criteria I am also prepared to evac pretty much anytime so ive built myself some flexibility. You can go into as much or as little detail as you want but your really just defining your own plan and saying it to yourself to prompt further thoughts and make decisive plans before SHTF it would also give you a chance to brief your family so everyone is on the same page as to at what point we do what.

For an example of deep diving each part of the phase take food shortages. Once stores no longer have X Y and Z I believe this will force widespread civil unrest and its time to go camping will monitor via radio for further developments/confirmation.

without going super in-depth I think I am stuck


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## bigdogbuc (Mar 23, 2012)

Inor said:


> I do not really understand the whole "phase prepping" concept. I mean, how do you tell when you are leaving phase 1 and entering phase 2? Life does not really seem to have these finely delineated things. Plus, with your history of firefighting etc., you know that NOTHING ever unfolds according to plan. So, I just make a primary plan for each scenario that I expect, then make 2-3 more plans to back out when that scenario proves to be wrong. Maintaining flexibility is the key in my arrogant opinion.


I just let Homeland Security tell me what color we're at for the day....:grin:


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

IMHO things will happen very quickly. Food stores don't have a weeks supply of products in the back room any more. Around me, I see 2-3 semi trailers waiting to get unloaded at the stores I frequent. With nothing in the back, any kind of run on food will show up in hours. Power failures are one of my biggest "IFs". being in such a dry climate, water is gold when there isn't any coming out of your pipes. If I get hit with a power failure that will affect water flow, deciding when to try and fill the bathtubs will be a hard decision. Is it a short term black out or a long term black out???


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## nephilim (Jan 20, 2014)

Stage 1: knowing the situation
Stage 2: prepping the family - they know the deal, but they have to be ready for the reality
Stage 3: fortifying the house - my house is easily defended, I have a bow and 200 arrows at my disposal, so could hold out for a while
Stage 4: food stores - I would top up everything we have, and start rationing
Stage 5: survival mode - most people at this point would be looking for places to loot or rob easily. Not really an option for my house. would take me an hour to add barbed wire to the fencing, and less time to set up booby traps
Stage 6: active foraging - we can actively forage where we are, and pull in enough to last for a few months. 
Stage 7: food preservation - look at preserving meat, fruit and veg as much as possible.
Stage 8: connect with others - look at connecting with other survivors and establish contact
Stage 9: rebuild the community - exact as it says on the tin.


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> do you have a example of this bro?? (just to get my head around your view??)


Pheniox. Phases of anything are typically big picture parts that are made up of a group of collective actions. THe example I will use is War time planning. and forgive me if I simplify and modify for the sake of time.

Phase 1 - THe preparation to be able to employ war time forces : This would be the recruiting, training, equipping, of forces and the necessary means to deploy them. We do this always.

Phase 2 - the deployment into a location to conduct war. THis is a major undertaking and one of the riskiest parts since it puts us the greatest risk of getting creamed since we can't just arrive together with all equipment.

Phase 3 is the execution of the War...lots going on there.

Phase 4 is winding down from open war to more stability operations and restoring local government and civil law

Phase 5 is redeployment (again a risky part since we are reducing our combat capacity.

Phase 6 is reconstitution/recovery of our forces.

Now this is not exactly as the doctrine lays it out, but it hopefully will help you understand phases. 
For me Phase 1 is the prep for the things I fear, the plans made for dealing with each.
Phase 2 is the initial movement to my selected area or back home once that thing has occurred
Phase 3 is the initial portion of surviving, which could be just subsisting off what you have stored up, and surviving the initial waves of chaos.
Phase 4 is when I must start long term sustainment...planting crops, hunting, fishing, etc, making my own stuff, etc.
Phase 5 is for when I decide to reintegrate back into a community.
Phase 6 is where I have succeeded and can begin to prep for the next issue. In some cases certain phases can overlap or not be implemented at all. But each have a details list of goals and actions to take. Hope this helped.


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

Old SF Guy said:


> Pheniox. Phases of anything are typically big picture parts that are made up of a group of collective actions. THe example I will use is War time planning. and forgive me if I simplify and modify for the sake of time.
> 
> Phase 1 - THe preparation to be able to employ war time forces : This would be the recruiting, training, equipping, of forces and the necessary means to deploy them. We do this always.
> 
> ...


Since you liked this let me expound further... In each phase the same task may exist...such as defend...but I may apply different levels...such as initially I may be very lenient and then by Phase 3 I'm harsh, but at Phase 5 I begin to be more lenient again and by Phase 6 I am being more in line with established laws. The same goal exists but I may chose to be proactive or reactive at the differing phases to meet the end state. Hope this helps.


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## Inor (Mar 22, 2013)

Old SF Guy said:


> Since you liked this let me expound further... In each phase the same task may exist...such as defend...but I may apply different levels...such as initially I may be very lenient and then by Phase 3 I'm harsh, but at Phase 5 I begin to be more lenient again and by Phase 6 I am being more in line with established laws. The same goal exists but I may chose to be proactive or reactive at the differing phases to meet the end state. Hope this helps.


This is great info SF.

But here's the thing... I am a computer guy. That means I pretty much see the world as black and white. (Obviously, real life does not work that way. But that is how my mind is wired to see it.) In other words, Phase 1 is determined by a set of conditions. When those conditions are met, there are a set of actions that I will take. Phase 2, another set of conditions along with another set of actions. etc.

So, for a guy like me that has trained for my entire adult life to work within that system of action and reaction, how do you recognize when you are moving from Phase 1 to Phase 2?


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Inor said:


> This is great info SF.
> 
> But here's the thing... I am a computer guy. That means I pretty much see the world as black and white. (Obviously, real life does not work that way. But that is how my mind is wired to see it.) In other words, Phase 1 is determined by a set of conditions. When those conditions are met, there are a set of actions that I will take. Phase 2, another set of conditions along with another set of actions. etc.
> 
> So, for a guy like me that has trained for my entire adult life to work within that system of action and reaction, how do you recognize when you are moving from Phase 1 to Phase 2?


old sf guy
Phase 1 is the prep for the things I fear,
the plans made for dealing with each.

the stage we are all in now

Phase 2 is the initial movement to my selected
area or back home once that thing has occurred

bugging out or in so our event is triggered

Phase 3 is the initial portion of surviving, which
could be just subsisting off what you have stored
up, and surviving the initial waves of chaos.

so first weeks/months, basically early times, the shock phase

Phase 4 is when I must start long term
sustainment...planting crops, hunting, fishing, etc,
making my own stuff, etc.

we no longer have our current way of life

Phase 5 is for when I decide to reintegrate back
into a community.

things return to "normal"

Phase 6 is where I have succeeded and can begin
to prep for the next issue.

in a flow chart back to phase one

so it just flows naturally


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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

I hope I'm right?? I used old sf guys phases and added another way of calling it in a timeline/flow chart

the triggers would be from phase 2-3 would be just making it to your bol


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

pheniox17 said:


> I hope I'm right?? I used old sf guys phases and added another way of calling it in a timeline/flow chart
> 
> the triggers would be from phase 2-3 would be just making it to your bol


Exactly correct...Because of the dangers of Phase 2 (open travel through areas...remember you could be all the way across the country when the event happens so That phase is called out as an individual phase. It requires more reactive versus completely pre-planned considerations because the time line for when an event happens is completely unknown or could be.


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

perhaps this is the wrong thread for this but it looks free and has a lot of very good data on resources in possible bug out locations. Unfortunately it only goes down to county/city level. Urban-to-Rural Evacuation Planning Toolkit


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

Inor said:


> This is great info SF.
> 
> But here's the thing... I am a computer guy. That means I pretty much see the world as black and white. (Obviously, real life does not work that way. But that is how my mind is wired to see it.) In other words, Phase 1 is determined by a set of conditions. When those conditions are met, there are a set of actions that I will take. Phase 2, another set of conditions along with another set of actions. etc.
> 
> So, for a guy like me that has trained for my entire adult life to work within that system of action and reaction, how do you recognize when you are moving from Phase 1 to Phase 2?


Well Inor, you challenge me because I am not a whiz bang computer guy. BUt if I were going to attempt to put it in that perspective Let me try it this way. We all do phases of things every day. Maybe we don't call them phase but they are. Maybe the term Phases lends you to believe that they are clearly separated with one ending then another beginning, That is not always true Let me give this crude example of developing a Program or GUI or other similar thing.

Phase 1 is defining what it needs to do, laying out all the parameters in must perform to and how it must look. THis is quite simply the "I need to make plans and begin preparing Phase"

Phase 2 is the acquisition of any computer tools required to do this - Python, Cobalt, C++, , etc - Now while not exactly deploying to a site it is still a critical step You have to get the right tools to do the Job though and just like My Phase 2 of "deployment" you have to initially do it to be able to start the other work, or if you can't get to the exact tool, figure out how to do the job with what tools are available.

Phase 3 is the initial code structure and code writing - THis is the bread and butter Phase.. you are surviving and trying to determine is this a short term situation or is this a long term problem. THis Phase sort of goes on until you are done...even through Phase 4 and 5 since it really deals with doing the basics Food, Water, Shelter, Safety, Just like you have to maintain the structure of your Code writing or GUI development through out the process.

Phase 4 is the compiling and initial functions checking - To me this Phase can begin at the same time as Phase 3 or anytime after it begins. It is the How do I expand my comforts, security, food stores. It may mean relocating to another area for weather concerns or security concerns (which means a new Phase 2 is executed) but the basics of this is My situation is not temporary so I must start doing additional tasks that I wasn't doing under my normal Phase 3 stuff. Family showed up and my Phase 3 stuff is insufficient to meet the needs, or I want to barter with some other folks for services or supplies I can't get or My food supply is dwindling and winter is coming on. Phase 4 is really just a supportive Phase to continuing your Phase 3. Compile check, rewrite code, compile check..etc

Phase 5 is the debugging and retesting (Maybe it really is operationally checking the program to ensure it is effective). - Phase 5 here is not exactly like my Phase 5, My phase 5 is starting to integrate back in to a community. This means I am turning over certain duties or responsibilities to others and expecting them to perform as required. I am taking on new roles such as maybe the chief security guy and directing others or following directions of others.

Phase 6 is putting the program or thing you created to use....So...while not helpful as written I think it associates like this. So this is the OK now things are quite settled and routine...I can now start preparing for changes to that situation that can be brought on by a new event. This Phase should be considered also as an add on to every other Phase from 3 onwards It is the Maintaining of the Bug out bag, The identification of the next bugout site...the rally points, the analysis of hazards along the route, The cache of food, etc.

Sorry so long winded and rambling but I hope this helps.


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

I think if Phases confuse folks you should call it something different. But in the end you have to identify the tasks that need to be done. These vary at different points of surviving a SHTF situation. You may be doing the same basic task, but be required to do it to a different degree or in a different way based on whats occurring around you. Example you may be drinking your water through a filtering straw in early phases where later you have a system of filtering that is more effective or able to purify more water. Initially you may not be able to save any meats you can trap or kill beyond what you can consume, but later you can smoke it or can it. Then eventually you work to get electricity so that you can freeze it, etc. These are examples of tasks that exist in every Phase, but how you plan to do it in a another Phase is different or can be. 

I'm gonna stop now.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Phase 1. planning
.............this includes what you are preparing to survive and what resources you will need.

Phase 2. stocking
.............this includes shelter, water, food, toiletries, medical, and contingencies as you revisit phase 1

Phase 3. testing
.............this includes using your equipment under conditions that are controlled to find out what you don't need and what you forgot to include - revisit 1 and 2

Phase 4. going
.............You have decided - in whatever way you decide - that it is time to go. If it really turns out as bad as you thought then you have a little head start on those who waited. If it turns out to be a false alarm you go back home stow your gear and talk to your neighbors about your camping trip. No harm done.

At this point you revisit 1 - 3 and evaluate your alert system. Modifications are made where it is necessary and gear and or provisions are modified or fortified.



When I lived in Seattle we had put together a small group for SHTF events. We had our gear, a location to go to and were ready to go - we were at phase 3.9.
Mount Saint Helens decided to blow her top. I was first notified while listening to my 80 meter SWR. I checked the weather maps and looked at the UW site to see how bad it was. This wasn't yet a major problem for us but it put me on alert. I made my calls and they made their calls - we were in contact all day. As I watched the weather maps I told everyone to stand down. If we went East we would land in the middle of the ash cloud and be stuck. As it turned out I was right and we were all in good shape while those in eastern Washington (where I am now) were fighting through two feet of ash fall. Car engines failed for lack of proper air filtration and even the cops were staying off the highways. 

I went to work getting filters for our cars that would work even in this volcanic ash (revisit Phase 1 and 2) and how to fit them to the different vehicles. We then decided that we needed to add particulate masks and filters to our BOBs and add filters to the gen sets. 


You see, prepping is an evolving thing because we never really know all the things we can be up against.


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## Old SF Guy (Dec 15, 2013)

Sorry to disagree with you paul...Steps are what your are referring to...Things that happen in an order to conduct an event or an action...Phases refer to numerous action that occur that as the Phases progress the action evolves or changes,is added to or expanded to meet certain strategic goals. The way I was taught is that you take steps to accomplish actions, the actions you wish to take are defined by the phase of the operations you are in strategically. But again, you can call it six or a half dozen as long as you know how to make the donuts you need to survive...what does it matter what you call it.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Discussion and disagreement is all good. It brings out different methods and understandings of the terminology that we use. As long as you realize that prepping is an evolutionary process then you will be fine.
Plans usually change as soon as you put them into action.


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