# SHTF case studies, long and boring, beware



## XMULE (Nov 8, 2015)

I see a lot of posts that ask questions about when SHTF. How bad will big cities be? What about poor rural areas? 
If no one objects, I would like to burn up a bit of my copious spare time, and do some case study type things, because Lord knows there are more than enough recent examples of what individuals, small communities, and major metro areas do when "SHTF".
I think I would like to start back a ways. Recently, Katrina is an obvious, and familiar disaster. Probably intimately familiar to some on this board, if so I may ask them to share some experiences. In fact, if I am covering a war, or disaster that anyone has ANY personal experience with, I would ask them to chime in. Clearly, no need for stories that hurt to remember, I would not ask that.
I will go way back to WWII. WWI, in my opinion, was one of the last "Great" wars fought largely in the countryside, and rural areas, with little direct intention of inflicting mass civilian casualties.
So, I want a region that was UTTERLY wiped out. Complete or near complete loss of infrastructure, lack of electricity, water and food supplies so low that they required outside assistance.
I'm lazy, and these posts will be FAT and TLDR, but that's okay.
I'll start with the German city of Dresden. Pre bombing population of 350,000, with an unknown number of refugees from areas already under heavy shelling and bombing.
On the night of February 13, hundreds of RAF bombers descended on Dresden in two waves, dropping their lethal cargo indiscriminately over the city. The city's air defenses were so weak that only six Lancaster bombers were shot down. By the morning, some 800 British bombers had dropped more than 1,400 tons of high-explosive bombs and more than 1,100 tons of incendiaries on Dresden, creating a great firestorm that destroyed most of the city and killed numerous civilians. Later that day, as survivors made their way out of the smoldering city, more than 300 U.S. bombers began bombing Dresden's railways, bridges and transportation facilities, killing thousands more. On February 15, another 200 U.S. bombers continued their assault on the city's infrastructure. All told, the bombers of the U.S. Eighth Air Force dropped more than 950 tons of high-explosive bombs and more than 290 tons of incendiaries on Dresden. Later, the Eighth Air Force would drop 2,800 more tons of bombs on Dresden in three other attacks before the war's end.
(From the History website)
I find reports of the city's water, electrical, and transportation infrastructure being pretty well reduced to nothing. A margarine plant caught fire. People who had retreated to shelters were later found reduced to ash from the heat.
Pretty much a SHTF scenario, for anyone left alive.

https://i.guim.co.uk/img/static/sys...tion-001.jpg?w=620&q=85&auto=format&sharp=10& LINK BROKEN MY BAD IT WAS A PICTURE OF A RATION CARD

A picture of a ration card. So, even immediately after the devastation, some form of Government, be it German, or US or British aid, was in place. I did not find any reports of survivors of the Dresden bombing assaulting, robbing, raping or killing each other. The general gist, from what I could find, is that survivors became refugees in other areas of Germany, and the later returned to reclaim their property. They do seem to have "bugged out", at least for a time, but as a refugee, not something planned in advance.
From the best I could find in a short time frame search, many former residents had returned, and basic infrastructure was restored within MONTHS! Hard to find an exact date for return to normalcy. Many of the landmark buildings seem to have taken many years to rebuild, and much of the city was just re designed rather than outright rebuilt, but it's the time frame that fascinates me. From utter destruction, to a functioning city in a few short years, due in large part no doubt to the reconstruction (and Germany's debt forgiveness post war). 
My takeaway? I will be careful what I do in the wake of a SHTF event, should it happen where I live. 
I am sure I will find other instances where law and order were not so quick to return, and the local population did not respond so well to the events that took place.

Yeah, really long! Lol.I'm gonna go smoke. If anyone wants me to NEVER do this again, let me know. Otherwise, I will do the next one next week, maybe look for something that has never really come back.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Its a well played out scenario 

The Guvment comes in and passes laws, the most important of which is to take away guns.

Then The Guvment declares war on it own citizens, the rabble and outcasts

Then the Guvment declares war on other nations.

Then other people decide to fight back and here we go, a really current firebombing of innocent civilians.

But the point is if the civilians hadn't given up their guns, and had the option to resist Hitler, IMO things would have gone very differently.

So, don't give up you guns.


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## tango (Apr 12, 2013)

Do not give up your guns!
Join the NRA!

Never get on the bus!


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

That thing about the nazis and guns.. stop, just stop. Its bogus

The Hitler gun control lie - Salon.com

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nazi_gun_control_theory

there are several things that can be discussed about the dresden bombings, like.. why bomb there? The city had no miliatry precence nor any industry. The target were the people, civilians, refugees. Why that target?

The affect on the german troops was that they now knew (kind of falsey) that they could not surrender, not to the western bankers nor the ruissan commies. So the fought back harder, tried to kill more as vengence. So the bombings probaly caused more us/british losses.

And not all refugees could return after the war, only those in the Us / British /French sectors could. In the Soviet sector, it was way to dangerous.

But yes, this proves that a well organised society can withstand so much more than one with poor organisation, and that is one of the main points of socialism


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## XMULE (Nov 8, 2015)

I wasn't looking to start an ideological discussion, although that's certainly an option. More a societal question. Why did the people of Dresden fare so well, rebuilding in a short time? I think they would have been okay even without the Allied powers efforts at reconstruction, and Germany's overall debt forgiveness. 

I.E. A fairly homogeneous local population in 1940's Dresden. A largely industrial, middle class population. Not so much what anyone could have done to to prevent anything, but what they did after SHTF.

Why was it too dangerous in the soviet sectors? Curious.


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## A Watchman (Sep 14, 2015)

XMULE said:


> I wasn't looking to start an ideological discussion, although that's certainly an option. More a societal question. Why did the people of Dresden fare so well, rebuilding in a short time? I think they would have been okay even without the Allied powers efforts at reconstruction, and Germany's overall debt forgiveness.
> 
> I.E. A fairly homogeneous local population in 1940's Dresden. A largely industrial, middle class population. Not so much what anyone could have done to to prevent anything, but what they did after SHTF.
> 
> Why was it too dangerous in the soviet sectors? Curious.


Awww Mule.....a lesson learned. On here the OP loses control of his thoughts as soon as he hits the post button. Threads can take very unpredictable....and sometimes very predictable........turns.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Swedishsocialist said:


> That thing about the nazis and guns.. stop, just stop. Its bogus
> 
> The Hitler gun control lie - Salon.com
> 
> ...


A pathetic attempt,

I don't disagree that you can provide 1 link that it didn't happen, so everyone will agree?

Stop denying the fact that every socialist or communist government didn't ...

#1 restrict or confiscate firearms

#2 and then systematically killed/butchered/cleansed millions and millions of their own people

Unless the current citizenry was less than 1 million people, I can't find a exemption. Of course if you say "only 450 thousand people died under XXX, you make my point"


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

Montana Rancher said:


> A pathetic attempt,
> 
> I don't disagree that you can provide 1 link that it didn't happen, so everyone will agree?
> 
> ...


say what? when did sweden, norway, denmark, united kingdom, australia, Iceland and on and on "
#2 and then systematically killed/butchered/cleansed millions and millions of their own people"

Do you think that the jews in germany would even have a shadow of a chance against the Wermacht & Luftwaffe?


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## Swedishsocialist (Jan 16, 2015)

XMULE said:


> I wasn't looking to start an ideological discussion, although that's certainly an option. More a societal question. Why did the people of Dresden fare so well, rebuilding in a short time? I think they would have been okay even without the Allied powers efforts at reconstruction, and Germany's overall debt forgiveness.
> 
> I.E. A fairly homogeneous local population in 1940's Dresden. A largely industrial, middle class population. Not so much what anyone could have done to to prevent anything, but what they did after SHTF.
> 
> ...


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Swedishsocialist said:


> say what? when did sweden, norway, denmark, united kingdom, australia, Iceland and on and on "
> #2 and then systematically killed/butchered/cleansed millions and millions of their own people"
> 
> Do you think that the jews in germany would even have a shadow of a chance against the Wermacht & Luftwaffe?


So let us agree that the recent gun confiscations from the countries above have not come to full fruition.

Although the violent crimes in these "gun free" zones are multitudes higher than they were before being gun free, as the citizens cannot defend themselves.

I am looking back at ancient history (only the last 60 years) where taking guns leaves the people at the mercy of their governments.

And to answer your question, YES the jews could have made a difference and DID make a difference to a small extent in WW2, armed resistance is better than no resistance.


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## Camel923 (Aug 13, 2014)




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## pheniox17 (Dec 12, 2013)

Swedishsocialist said:


> say what? when did sweden, norway, denmark, united kingdom, australia, Iceland and on and on "
> #2 and then systematically killed/butchered/cleansed millions and millions of their own people"
> 
> Do you think that the jews in germany would even have a shadow of a chance against the Wermacht & Luftwaffe?


For the 15th time firearms ARE legal here, they are restricted to the reason of use, types of firearms obtainable, and if you have a history of violence....

But because you seen it on cnn it must be true


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## Ralph Rotten (Jun 25, 2014)

Someone asked why Dresden. It actually opens up a dark chapter in human warfare. Believe it or not, during wwii there were groups assigned to study the possibility of bombing civilian populations as a way to break their will. We had a guy,the brits had one too...colonel idontremberhisname... anyhow, these guys actually studied it like a science experiment. Dresden, Tokyo...these were just quasi scientific studies in warfare. Tis why Hitler used the v1 and terror weapons...to get the brits to capitulate.

The result was that the program was an utter failure. Bombing Dresden, Tokyo, and London only strengthened their resolve. The krauts activated their home guard en masse after Dresden, Tokyo started sharpening sticks after their firebombing, and Britain reached out to her rich son. The attacks only strengthened their resolve.


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## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

XMULE said:


> I see a lot of posts that ask questions about when SHTF. How bad will big cities be? What about poor rural areas?
> If no one objects, I would like to burn up a bit of my copious spare time, and do some case study type things, because Lord knows there are more than enough recent examples of what individuals, small communities, and major metro areas do when "SHTF".
> I think I would like to start back a ways. Recently, Katrina is an obvious, and familiar disaster. Probably intimately familiar to some on this board, if so I may ask them to share some experiences. In fact, if I am covering a war, or disaster that anyone has ANY personal experience with, I would ask them to chime in. Clearly, no need for stories that hurt to remember, I would not ask that.
> I will go way back to WWII. WWI, in my opinion, was one of the last "Great" wars fought largely in the countryside, and rural areas, with little direct intention of inflicting mass civilian casualties.
> ...


So how did they rebuild from ashes and rubble so fast???


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## Renec (Dec 21, 2012)

Just want to throw this out there..anyone who uses "Salon" as a media source forever loses all credibility. Sheesh!


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## XMULE (Nov 8, 2015)

AquaHull said:


> So how did they rebuild from ashes and rubble so fast???


From what I read, through a combination of surrounding communities taking in property owners whose houses were destroyed during the rebuilding, and money and materials to rebuild from Allied power reconstruction efforts. Things were still bad, but not grim death, within a couple years, supposedly, but it's hard to find numbers on how many homes/buildings were rebuilt how fast.


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## XMULE (Nov 8, 2015)

Renec said:


> Just want to throw this out there..anyone who uses "Salon" as a media source forever loses all credibility. Sheesh!


Did I? Lol. Quite the faux pas, didn't notice. The main body I quoted/ plagiarized from history, the bad link was not from salon...


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Renec said:


> Just want to throw this out there..anyone who uses "Salon" as a media source forever loses all credibility. Sheesh!


Good one Renec! (You beat me to it!!!!)


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## Renec (Dec 21, 2012)

no Mule..wasn't you..Swede used Salon as a source..might as will use "the Onion" as a source


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Ralph Rotten said:


> Someone asked why Dresden. It actually opens up a dark chapter in human warfare. Believe it or not, during wwii there were groups assigned to study the possibility of bombing civilian populations as a way to break their will. We had a guy,the brits had one too...colonel idontremberhisname... anyhow, these guys actually studied it like a science experiment. Dresden, Tokyo...these were just quasi scientific studies in warfare. Tis why Hitler used the v1 and terror weapons...to get the brits to capitulate.
> 
> The result was that the program was an utter failure. Bombing Dresden, Tokyo, and London only strengthened their resolve. The *krauts *activated their home guard en masse after Dresden, Tokyo started sharpening sticks after their firebombing, and Britain reached out to her rich son. The attacks only strengthened their resolve.


Ralphie my boy,

You crack me up! You have written numerous times how much you hate the n-word, yet you have no problem calling the German people "krauts". You are hilarious!!


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