# The stock market bubble



## Chiefster23 (Feb 5, 2016)

Everyone knows the stock market is crazy high right now. I have a nice sized IRA in which 1/3 is invested in blue chip stocks paying good sized dividends. All these blue chips have a long history in paying consistent dividends. The other 2/3 is invested in a conservative Schwab Intelligent Portfolio. About 14% of the total is in cash, and that’s enough for me to continue receiving my monthly checks without touching the underlying stocks for 5 years. 

I’m considering increasing my cash position. The main concern is this. Right now this investment mix generates enough in dividends and intrest that it completely covers my monthly withdrawals. I don’t have to touch the underlying stocks and bonds. If I sell off some to increase my cash position, I start to lose some of that dividends and intrest. But of course I gain the safety of having more cash.

For all you PM guys, I already have about 2% in PM.

So what do you think? More cash or cross my fingers and hope for the best?


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

I wouldn't bet on biden for very long. His policies will eventually tank the market. Take the profit and hang onto the cash. Reinvest when the market drops.


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## stevekozak (Oct 4, 2015)

Stay the course. Wait for the bottom to drop out of it, and buy like crazy. This is my plan and it has gotten me where I am.


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## stowlin (Apr 25, 2016)

We all have varied philosophies on it. I manage funds for six people with more then I’ll ever have, but they all want varied things. One I’d young, in his 30’s and the money was his inheritance, and he wants it to be there for his kids. However he likes risk. He is 90% stocks / ETFs and 5% precious metals and 5% cash with a call he can go to zero cash and buy something he perceives is important. He is a big Tesla guy. Two of my clients are late 60’s early 70’s and they want and need a set amount of money coming out each month. They are 70% dividend stocks earning about 4% and 30% cash due mostly to fear on the economy. 

My philosophy is applied to my account and my other three clients. We are not traders. We buy individual stocks and ETFs for gain. We have about 40% of our portfolio considered the “base” and it’s used to buy what we see as an opportunity in a segment of the market (ETF) or a stock. We may be in with half or all of that 40% a month, a year or maybe two years but we are there to get a profit, and then leave that profit in place and take the “base” out. For example we got out of AAPL last January 2020 as Covid arrived and I feared impact on Apple. When we sell off the base we leave the profit in place and that’s the vast majority of the 60% on our portfolio. It does include PMs. Almost 5% PMs right now. Rarely do we sell off the profit but it does happen. We do that if there is a perceived peak. I sold some in January with the AAPL due to Covid and by April 15 we were all back in. It was a good year. I feel lucky more than smart. And I don’t like that. 

Right now I still think inflation is very likely. Gas is going to increase costs, bidens mini wage will impact the majority of states, and the creation of $4 trillion over three stimulus bills is just reeking inflation and dividends will not keep up, but blue chips probably will.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I've already said I am taking all my money out and putting it into booze and hookers. I am hoping one of the two will kill me before the money runs out. :tango_face_grin:


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

I don't watch day by day. Just looked over reports on one account that has always done ok to well. 25% return over the last year. Others all doing ok. I am 100% sure Biden well take a bite out of the returns before he is done.


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## Trihonda (Aug 24, 2020)

How does half of America hate one orange man so badly they’re willing to vote away freedoms and solid economic policies...? I’m astounded


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Trihonda said:


> How does half of America hate one orange man so badly they're willing to vote away freedoms and solid economic policies...? I'm astounded


Indoctrination. Starting with our schools and ending with the nonstop MSM propaganda. We lose ground day by day, decade by decade.


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## Brandau Sousa (Jan 31, 2021)

Earlier last year we had only a 30% decrease on the stock market. I guess that it was minuscule compared to the amount of money provided by the quantitative easing policy by the US government. To continue development of the economy we need a much deeper dip, my opinion. There are lots of tools to analyse the situation.


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## Ranger710Tango (Feb 27, 2021)

It’s time to hold assets, not paper.


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## 0rocky (Jan 7, 2018)

I don’t like to give specific investment advice. That said the goal might be to reinvest some of the interest/dividends hoping that it you make more than you spend. Event making much more than you spend. I do think the market will experience another correction. You could then buy even more in a down market. Just my idea.


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## Nick (Nov 21, 2020)

It's kind of hard to give advice without knowing someone's personal information. Someone's age is obviously a big consideration (you can't take it with you).

There's plenty of people that could probably cash in and have enough to last them the rest of their lives. But then there's the question is there anyone you want to leave something behind for, and how much?

Once these stimulus packages are done I think the market is going to take a steep dive that won't be easy to recover from.

I think most people realize inflation is coming. It's already started. But I don't think a lot of people realize just how high it's going to be. 

I still believe PM's are a good hedge against a down market and inflation. 

Then again a lot depends on how long this administration is in power. I don't think anybody actually believes the future is looking too bright right now, especially if they're here.


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## Xstuntman (Feb 25, 2021)

Rampant inflation and devaluation of currency is coming i believe so the valuation of cash and assets would then be? 
And what would the turnover rate be if going to a digital currency? Certainly the current gang of thieves are not going to give you one for one on any cash holdings.

My company retirement is in the markets so i prep for the above outside of my retirement and brother, it ain't in bitcoin.


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