# An interesting thing I noticed...



## Inor

So I am playing around with a new open source software rules engine. It is just a piece of software that is designed to crunch huge amounts of data in parallel to be able to quickly work with very large data sets. Whenever I am learning software like this, I usually write some stupid application to crunch financial data because it is easy and free to get large amounts of data, plus it is a topic that interests me.

So, in the process of playing with this thing yesterday and today I noticed a couple really weird anomalies. Before I go into it more, I need to state that I came across this while focused on learning a new piece of software, not doing any kind of digging into financial matters at all. I just happened to be playing with the data and this is what I discovered:

In February 2014, we hit an all time high for leveraged stock ownership of about $450 billion. That is, investors had borrowed $450 billion dollars specifically to buy stocks. The same thing happened in January 2008 when we hit an all time high of about $420 billion in leveraged stock ownership. Prior to that, we hit an all time high of about $400 billion in early 2001.

In the cases of 2001 and 2008, the Volatility Index (^VIX) was at extraordinary low levels at the time the high for the leveraged stock ownership was reached and for 6-8 months after. (Thursday, the VIX closed at $10.32, 4 cents above the 52 week low).

In the case of both 2001 and 2008, there was a period of 6-8 months after the leveraged stock ownership highs were hit that leveraged ownership actually slid down slightly but not dramatically. The same has been happening this year since February.

In other words, if 2001 and 2008 are any indicators, we are only a trigger event away from a massive sell off in the markets and a bursting of the bond bubble. In 2001 it was 9/11. In 2008 it was $143 per barrel oil.

Like I said, I was not doing any kind of financial research when I noticed these. I just stumbled upon them, so I may be missing some critical element. But I would love to hear what you all think.


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## Denton

Could it be that you just gave us a very important heads up to something big, even as some are thinking this is a great time to jump in the markets with both feet?


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## ekim

IMO, the only thing propping up the stock market are those with enough money to make the market move in the direction they want it to move. So unless you have some insider know how this isn't the time to invest in the stock market. The trigger could be our border problem, Iraq or the elections come November. I'd say invest in ammo, food/water and stuff for trouble on the way. I sure wouldn't be buying big ticket items. Precious metals only if you have excess money laying around.


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## jro1

??? But I keep hearing from "little birds" that sometime in July this month something will go 'Pop" And also noticed at work, a lot of the bigger projects, funds were being held back and developers were holding off on projects!!! don't know, we started off having the craziest year to start, and then 75% of projects got wiped from the board and are now just "Pending"


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## Inor

jro1 said:


> ??? But I keep hearing from "little birds" that sometime in July this month something will go 'Pop" And also noticed at work, a lot of the bigger projects, funds were being held back and developers were holding off on projects!!! don't know, we started off having the craziest year to start, and then 75% of projects got wiped from the board and are now just "Pending"


I am seeing that as well.

I am trying hard not to get paranoid, but there are just too many similarities to previous bubbles bursting not to notice. And if the bond bubble does pop, it is going to be bad. Real bad.


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## jro1

what else can you do with that software? can we use it for "Sports"


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## jro1

maybe run that software on some players stats, weather during the game, what they ate for breakfast and see if we can fine tune some bets!!!


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## bigdogbuc

It's coming. Trading hit an all time record high the other day. Ever. With every exhilarating high, comes an equally low, low. We won't recover from the next one.


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## LunaticFringeInc

Yes the day of reckoning is coming for America, and a majority don't care as evidence by Obama's re-election in 2012.


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## budgetprepp-n

I don't understand everything your saying but I get the jest of it. Scary 

I'm the guy holding the sine that says the "End is near"

Sounds more like get your preps now while you still can while they are cheap to me. 
Yes they are cheap compared to what they will cost after TSHTF ----No stores you will only have only what you got when it hits.
All that money spent on new cars and big screen TVs,,,,,, People are going wish they could trade all that for a few cans of beans.

Don't be worried your starving child will look good in the back seat of your new BMW.


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## Slippy

My gut says you are correct, the Quantitative Easing of the Fed at $80 Billion per month is still a huge factor. Too much time with family and too much vodka (Tito's Austin, TX again!) to make total sense. But I think evil things this way come...


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## Inor

budgetprepp-n said:


> I don't understand everything your saying but I get the jest of it. Scary
> 
> I'm the guy holding the sine that says the "End is near"
> 
> Sounds more like get your preps now while you still can while they are cheap to me.
> Yes they are cheap compared to what they will cost after TSHTF ----No stores you will only have only what you got when it hits.
> All that money spent on new cars and big screen TVs,,,,,, People are going wish they could trade all that for a few cans of beans.
> 
> Don't be worried your starving child will look good in the back seat of your new BMW.


It is pretty simple once you get past the jargon.

Basically, I am saying the big money investors have been borrowing a HUGE amount of cash to buy stocks, thinking the markets will go up faster than interest rates on the loans they took to buy them. That is not a difficult strategy since interest for the big guys has been basically zero for the last 5 years.

The Volatility Index is just a measure of how scared investors are of the current stock market levels. It usually bounces between $10 and $20. In a perfect world, we would like to see it at about $15. That means investors are not totally confident about the markets going up, but they are optimistic. When it get close to $20 (or over), it means all of the big money investors are scared shitless and running for the exits (I.E. crash), if it get too close to $10 (or below), it means everybody is totally confident the markets are going up indefinitely. When investors are convinced the markets are going up forever, it only takes a small bit of bad news to create a rush for the exits (I.E. crash). Where the VIX is at right now means we are in the irrational exuberance stage.

What it means when the leveraged stock ownership is sliding downward slowly (with the other two indicators outlined previously) is that the smart money (I.E. big fish investors) are selling stocks and paying back the loans they took to buy them. I.E. The big guys think that either the markets are going down hard and/or interest rates are going up. Either way, they get slammed if they own stocks that are going down at the same time as owing debt that is going up.

Meanwhile, retail investors (guys like you and me) and smallish hedge funds continue to drive things higher. But, if one bad bit of news comes out though, everybody is going to be rushing to sell. If it goes too far bad with the selling, the lenders who loaned money to investors to buy stocks are going to start requiring margin calls. In other words, we loaned you $100K to buy stocks, those stocks are only worth $80K now; so give us $20K now or we will not keep the line of credit open. That will force a LOT of people to sell in a down market and drive down the price further.

I am ABSOLUTELY NOT making any predictions since I saw this just playing with some numbers for the sake of playing with numbers. But based on the data from the last two major meltdowns (and really the LTCM mess of '98) this is setting up to be a really bad autum.


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## inceptor

Inor said:


> It is pretty simple once you get past the jargon.
> 
> Basically, I am saying the big money investors have been borrowing a HUGE amount of cash to buy stocks, thinking the markets will go up faster than interest rates on the loans they took to buy them. That is not a difficult strategy since interest for the big guys has been basically zero for the last 5 years.
> 
> The Volatility Index is just a measure of how scared investors are of the current stock market levels. It usually bounces between $10 and $20. In a perfect world, we would like to see it at about $15. That means investors are not totally confident about the markets going up, but they are optimistic. When it get close to $20 (or over), it means all of the big money investors are scared shitless and running for the exits (I.E. crash), if it get too close to $10 (or below), it means everybody is totally confident the markets are going up indefinitely. When investors are convinced the markets are going up forever, it only takes a small bit of bad news to create a rush for the exits (I.E. crash). Where the VIX is at right now means we are in the irrational exuberance stage.
> 
> What it means when the leveraged stock ownership is sliding downward slowly (with the other two indicators outlined previously) is that the smart money (I.E. big fish investors) are selling stocks and paying back the loans they took to buy them. I.E. The big guys think that either the markets are going down hard and/or interest rates are going up. Either way, they get slammed if they own stocks that are going down at the same time as owing debt that is going up.
> 
> Meanwhile, retail investors (guys like you and me) and smallish hedge funds continue to drive things higher. But, if one bad bit of news comes out though, everybody is going to be rushing to sell. If it goes too far bad with the selling, the lenders who loaned money to investors to buy stocks are going to start requiring margin calls. In other words, we loaned you $100K to buy stocks, those stocks are only worth $80K now; so give us $20K now or we will not keep the line of credit open. That will force a LOT of people to sell in a down market and drive down the price further.
> 
> I am ABSOLUTELY NOT making any predictions since I saw this just playing with some numbers for the sake of playing with numbers. But based on the data from the last two major meltdowns (and really the LTCM mess of '98) this is setting up to be a really bad autum.


Damn, you're almost as smart as Casie. But I'll bet she's better lookin than you.


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## Slippy

I just can't let this one go...
With the Fed printing $80 B per month and institutions borrowing that $80 B at 0% interest (or something very low) doesn't that factor into the "leveraged" amount? If so, as long as the Fed continues the printing, won't the markets react positively?...unless we have something like Federally backed Student Loans Debt fail or another Housing failure? 

I just can't wrap my mind around macro-economics but it still intrigues me. Help Inor, help...Damnit!


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## budgetprepp-n

Ok so if the guy that has got to pay the 20k to keep his credit going if he just sits tight we would be OK. But if a bunch of them dump there 
stocks and run it would damage the market with panic selling? Is that right?


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## Inor

budgetprepp-n said:


> Ok so if the guy that has got to pay the 20k to keep his credit going if he just sits tight we would be OK. But if a bunch of them dump there
> stocks and run it would damage the market with panic selling? Is that right?


You are absolutely correct. He would be fine if he has the $20K in cash and is willing to wait 5 years for the market to return. But the problem is, none of them do. They are borrowed up to their eyes because the market is going through the roof right now and forever. When it goes down, it happens FAST. And when it starts to fall, it is a self-perpetuating cycle. I.E. It goes down some which forces some guys to sell to make their margin calls, which forces the market down and causes more guys to have to sell to make their calls, etc.


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## PalmettoTree

Inor good job! Overage leveraging anything will cause a bubble and all bubbles burst.

I thought last weeks sell off was traders playing it safe oner the long weekend but your data has me second guessing that.


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## Inor

Slippy said:


> I just can't let this one go...
> With the Fed printing $80 B per month and institutions borrowing that $80 B at 0% interest (or something very low) doesn't that factor into the "leveraged" amount? If so, as long as the Fed continues the printing, won't the markets react positively?...unless we have something like Federally backed Student Loans Debt fail or another Housing failure?
> 
> I just can't wrap my mind around macro-economics but it still intrigues me. Help Inor, help...Damnit!


Yeah, you and me both pal. Casie is the one that we really need to quiz on macro-economics. She writes for Zero Hedge which means she has forgotten more about economics than I will ever know. I am just a dumb computer dork that is paid to notice patterns. That is what prompted this whole post in the first place.


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## bigdogbuc

Inor said:


> Yeah, you and me both pal. Casie is the one that we really need to quiz on macro-economics. She writes for Zero Hedge which means she has forgotten more about economics than I will ever know. I am just a dumb computer dork that is paid to notice patterns. That is what prompted this whole post in the first place.


What pattern do you see with me? :grin:


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## Inor

bigdogbuc said:


> What pattern do you see with me? :grin:


Just monkey porn. No need to worry. You're Jake.


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## Casie

The July VIX Futures - which do not mature for another 10 days - have collapsed...









And it's not some fat finger thin volume trade - it is massive algorithmic idiocy...








It should be an interesting Monday.

Kaa1016: "It's not just July. This goes out until November and the front 3 months have all traded over 100k contracts. Something clearly is very wrong.

With that kind of volume, if those trades stand, expect some pretty wild moves on Monday. If these trades aren't busted and the VIX snaps right back, whoever put these trades on is going to find themselves in a bad risk position."

Also, did you see Jamie Dimon has suddenly left the Morgue? Cancer or running for the hills? We sure live in interesting times.

(charts lifted from ZeroHedge)


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## Coppertop

Casie, 

Are you saying we may be to late already?


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## Inor

Casie said:


> Also, did you see Jamie Dimon has suddenly left the Morgue? Cancer or running for the hills? We sure live in interesting times.


What is up with the Morgue? For the last 5 or so years, they have had me out to Jersey City to teach their people some basic technology classes every 3 months. It has been just like clockwork every 3 months. They still are booked for a few this year but two weeks ago, they decided to postpone the next two deliveries for a month. It is odd. Until now, they were very free and easy with money, never complaining about my rates or my travel expenses (which in Jersey City are crazy expensive). Now all of a sudden, they are getting all tight fisted. Are they on the verge of blowing up ala AIG in 2008 or LTCM in 1998?


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## Casie

Coppertop said:


> Casie,
> 
> Are you saying we may be to late already?


Coppertop, if I knew the timeline, I'd tell you and we'd all make millions. You know... like the FED owners, Senators and Congressmen do.

But one thing is for certain, "If you are going to panic. Be the first to panic!" (Also known as "He who panics first, panics best.")


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## PalmettoTree

Inoe, do you know of any open source software that run statistical analyze like "statgraphics"? I will not try to run unlicensed copies but their rates are outrageous. It least the last time i looked they were. I have never understood why MS Office did not include such. They are almost there anyway with Office.


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## Casie

Inor said:


> Are they on the verge of blowing up ala AIG in 2008 or LTCM in 1998?


Maybe.

Over 11 banker "suicides" in 2014 so far. I've listed a few below. You ever heard of a man killing himself using a nail gun? He supposedly shot himself several times in the body and the head. Call me silly, but I'm pretty sure a man killed with a nail gun was being coerced into talking.


Gabriel Magee, a 39-year-old JP Morgan employee, died after falling from the roof of the JP Morgan European headquarters in London on January 27th.

Mike Dueker, 50-year-old chief economist of a US investment bank was found dead close to the Tacoma Narrows Bridge in Washington State.

Richard Talley, the 57 year old founder of American Title Services in Centennial, Colorado, was found dead earlier this month after apparently shooting himself with a nail gun.

Ryan Henry Crane, a 37 year old executive at JP Morgan died in an alleged suicide just a few weeks ago. No details have been released about his death aside from this small obituary announcement at the Stamford Daily Voice.

Li Junjie, 33-year-old banker in Hong Kong jumped from the JP Morgan HQ in Hong Kong this week.

James Stuart Jr, Former National Bank of Commerce CEO, found dead in Scottsdale, Ariz., the morning of Feb. 19. A family spokesman did not say what caused the death

Edmund (Eddie) Reilly, 47, a trader at Midtown's Vertical Group, committed suicide by jumping in front of LIRR train

Kenneth Bellando, 28, a trader at Levy Capital, formerly investment banking analyst at JPMorgan, jumped to his death from his 6th floor East Side apartment.

Banking Deaths: Why JPMorgan Stands Out

Wall Street On Parade:
"In the past six months, five current workers and two former workers of JPMorgan Chase have died under unusual circumstances. Adding to the tragedy, all seven were in their late 20s or 30s and three of the deaths involved alleged falls from buildings."

JPMorgan Chase are allowed to secretly collect life insurance proceeds on the lives of their employees, and former employees, without disclosing the amounts to the employees, their families, or the public, or their shareholders. The payments are a closely guarded secret between the companies and the insurers who collect the lucrative premiums."

I have no idea what the Morgue makes off of secret life insurance policies but back in late 2013 I read they held around $17.9 billion in BOLI assets. That would represent around $179 billion (or more). But banks are not required to publicly report the number of workers they insure, or the life insurance amount per individual, or breakout the income they derive annually from deaths. It's typically lumped in with numerous other items and called "other income."

And now, Jamie Dimon has pulled the rip cord on his golden parachute and bailed on it all. Does it add up to a collapse? Could be. It really depends on how far the FED is willing to go this time.


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## Inor

PalmettoTree said:


> Inoe, do you know of any open source software that run statistical analyze like "statgraphics"? I will not try to run unlicensed copies but their rates are outrageous. It least the last time i looked they were. I have never understood why MS Office did not include such. They are almost there anyway with Office.


The rules engine stuff I was playing with are a collection of plug-ins for the Apache Hadoop server.

Welcome to Apache? Hadoop®!

That was just to gather and distill the data sets. For any kind of plotting or graphing, I usually just use JFreeChart.

JFreeChart

These are all just libraries, so you do have to write whatever logic you want to process in Java. It is probably more work than you want if you are just trying to play with some "what if" scenarios. But it is VERY cool stuff. The Hadoop server is actually what the NSA is using to analyze our cell phone calls and e-mail messages. So it is "industrial strength".


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## Slippy

Casie,
I'm a simple minded man and cut my teeth selling lumber/plywood/and other commodity building products nearly 30 years ago. I believe it to be better to "lead" the market down than be stuck holding the bag. 

I own my land and my house outright, my bills are but a small percentage of my current income. I do not have faith in our current market system due to the FED and the ridiculous policy associated with it. I do have money in the market, primarily in mutual funds, PM's and cash but I have zero confidence in the long term. 

What do we do? My plan is self sufficiency period. I may never get there but I'm better off today than I was a year ago. or 5 years ago. God Save this Great Republic.


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## Casie

Slippy, as you stand now, you are better positioned than approximately 90% of the population. 

Of course, giving or taking financial advice dispensed on a message board is a well documented sign of mental illness. But it's not like there are a ton of options out there for us. 

I have sold unencumbered stocks. I have cashed out an old IRA (10% hit, plus taxes). I have ceased all contributions to 401k's. I have them positioned as low risk as possible. 

I read every week how the really rich are emptying savings accounts of fiat dollars and investing in physical items of value such as PMs, art, arable land, or businesses that produce an actual product.

I'm doing the same on a much much smaller scale. I'm improving my land, building coops and raised beds, and prepping like a maniac. I've been a real fan of investing in PMs even as a teen, but if I only knew back then what I know now....


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## Arizona Infidel

Who made money in 87,01,and 08, and who stands to make money if it happens again?


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## Casie

banks and politicians


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## SquirrelBait

Casie said:


> Coppertop, if I knew the timeline, I'd tell you and we'd all make millions. You know... like the FED owners, Senators and Congressmen do.
> 
> But one thing is for certain, "If you are going to panic. Be the first to panic!" (Also known as "He who panics first, panics best.")


I wouldn't say panic, But keep a foot in the isle just in case...


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## SARGE7402

jro1 said:


> ??? But I keep hearing from "little birds" that sometime in July this month something will go 'Pop" And also noticed at work, a lot of the bigger projects, funds were being held back and developers were holding off on projects!!! don't know, we started off having the craziest year to start, and then 75% of projects got wiped from the board and are now just "Pending"


If I were a betting man I'd go for an event in October right before the mid terms


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## Casie

jro1 said:


> ??? But I keep hearing from "little birds" that sometime in July this month something will go 'Pop" And also noticed at work, a lot of the bigger projects, funds were being held back and developers were holding off on projects!!! don't know, we started off having the craziest year to start, and then 75% of projects got wiped from the board and are now just "Pending"


The number Jro1 is talking about is the July 20th date.

It is based off some really odd stuff Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), rambled on about during a speech she gave early last week. She was just in Washington with our very own FED Board Chair, Janet Yellen, where Christine again hinted at a "Coming downward revision in world economic outlook".









Anyway, it's a date a lot of people will be looking at. It's a Sunday, so that works with the whole Monday morning sheep slaughter theory. But, who knows. Maybe the plan is just to shake the tree really hard to see how many of the doves they can get to take flight. That way the banks can swoop in and buy. After all, why stop at owning 40% of the market when you can own 50%. They aren't spending their own money, so they don't care what the price is.

Also, I wonder how a Monday morning sheep slaughter would actually work now that the market has all these automated emergency stops built in. These circuit breakers were designed to minimize the damage an out of control HFT algo could do in a matter of seconds. But what does a million man mad dash to the exit doors look like with red lights every 100 feet?


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## Hemi45

ekim said:


> IMO, the only thing propping up the stock market are those with enough money to make the market move in the direction they want it to move. So unless you have some insider know how this isn't the time to invest in the stock market. The trigger could be our border problem, Iraq or the elections come November. I'd say invest in *ammo*, food/water and stuff for trouble on the way. I sure wouldn't be buying big ticket items. *Precious metals* only if you have excess money laying around.


If things break bad, there is no metal more precious IMHO.


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## Inor

They have to revise the economic outlook downward to justify keeping interest rates at zero. The Fed is caught in a nasty trap right now. If they raise interest rates to where they should be, they will bankrupt the U.S. federal government. If they keep them at zero, inflation will continue to run away uncontrolled.

As a side note: We really should put a height requirement on the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It is really hard to take an egghead seriously who is not even 4 feet tall.


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## Coppertop

Casie said:


> Coppertop, if I knew the timeline, I'd tell you and we'd all make millions. You know... like the FED owners, Senators and Congressmen do.
> 
> But one thing is for certain, "If you are going to panic. Be the first to panic!" (Also known as "He who panics first, panics best.")


Call me the first to panic. Had built up a pretty good nest egg of stocks over the last ten years and some of them had even quadrupled. Now to reinvest in something sustainable.


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## Casie

Another JPM banker got "suicided". This is dead banker number 15.

"In what appears to the 15th financial services executive suicide this year, yet another JPMorgan Director took his own life. As IBTimes reports, Jefferson Township (New Jersey) police report that the Global Network Operations Center Executive Director, "Julian Knott, age 45, shot his wife Alita Knott, age 47, multiple times and then took his own life with the same weapon." They are survived by 3 teenage children."









*This is the 15th financial services exective death in recent months.*

1 - William Broeksmit, 58
2 - Karl Slym, 51
3 - Gabriel Magee, a 39-year-old JP Morgan employee, died after falling from the roof of the JP Morgan European headquarters in London on January 27th.
4 - Mike Dueker, 50
5 - Richard Talley, the 57 year old founder of American Title Services in Centennial, Colorado, was found dead earlier this month after apparently shooting himself with a nail gun.
6 - Tim Dickenson, a U.K.-based communications director at Swiss Re AG, also died last month, however the circumstances surrounding his death are still unknown.
7 - Ryan Henry Crane, a 37 year old executive at JP Morgan died in an alleged suicide just a few weeks ago. 
8 - Li Junjie, 33-year-old banker in Hong Kong jumped from the JP Morgan HQ in Hong Kong this week.
9 - James Stuart Jr.
10 - Edmund (Eddie) Reilly, 47
11 - Kenneth Bellando, 28, a trader at Levy Capital, formerly investment banking analyst at JPMorgan, jumped to his death from his 6th floor East Side apartment.
12 - Jan Peter Schmittmann, 57
13 - Li Jianhua, 49
14 - Lydia , 52 
15 - Julian Knott, 45


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## Denton

Stocks take a hit over concerns of Portugal's problems:

U.S. stocks fall; Dow sees triple-digit loss - Market Snapshot - MarketWatch


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## Casie

Hey Denton, last week did you see the BIS tell Yellen it was time to pop some bubbles?! How surreal was that?!

As you most likely already know, The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is commonly thought of as the "central bank's central bank". They just released their annual report and in it was a rather ominous request to the FED: Pop this bubble now.

They said it like this:

*"The risk of normalising too late and too gradually should not be underestimated. The trade-off is now between the risk of bringing forward the downward leg of the cycle and that of suffering a bigger bust later on.

Few are ready to curb financial booms that make everyone feel illusively richer. Or to hold back on quick fixes for output slowdowns, even if such measures threaten to add fuel to unsustainable financial booms."

"The road ahead may be a long one. All the more reason, then, to start the journey sooner rather than later."*

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WTF?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So guess what the FED said. Yellen shows up to speak at the IMF and says, "It's not the Fed's job to pop bubbles".

...........................................................

So now we know. It's not the FED's job. They just *b l o w* the bubbles. They don't soft land them.

To me what was most fascinating/terrifying is how blatantly, out in the open the central banks are now operating. Just a few years ago, you'd have been called a nut-job, crazy, conspiracy theorists for even suggesting bankers could intentionally crash the stock market! _Now it's... like... totally no big deal, yo._ It is crystal clear from the BIS report that central bankers openly discuss initiating a collapse as a policy measure. This was a direct recommendation to bring on the crash - or as they say so colorfully, to "*bring forward the downward leg of the cycle*".









picture and quotes lifted from Is the Fed going to attempt a controlled collapse? | NotQuant

With no central bank interference, a healthy market would wax and wane in normal cycles. We would grow, and contract a little, and grow again. But what the FED does over and over again is hold off the waning- hold it off, hold it off, hold it off, hold it off- until the eventual release is ridiculously explosive. Then they gather up their new trillions of dollars, and investors stagger around shell shocked looking for their asses.

I hate the FED.


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## Denton

The Fed serves the rich, and not who we were originally told. The rich make money on the way up, and take a lot more from others when crashes occur. 

Right now, they are salivating over all that which can be taken from 401(k)s and IRAs.


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## PalmettoTree

How? The rich have not taken from me directly. If you want to say individual rich people like Buffett is setting richer off the failure to complete Keystone pipeline I agree.

How does the rich take during crashes?

You can make money up and down if you are as smart as Casie.


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## StarPD45

PalmettoTree said:


> How? The rich have not taken from me directly. If you want to say individual rich people like Buffett is setting richer off the failure to complete Keystone pipeline I agree.
> 
> How does the rich take during crashes?
> 
> *You can make money up and down if you are as smart as Casie*


But are any of us that smart?


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## Denton

PalmettoTree said:


> How? The rich have not taken from me directly. If you want to say individual rich people like Buffett is setting richer off the failure to complete Keystone pipeline I agree.
> 
> How does the rich take during crashes?
> 
> You can make money up and down if you are as smart as Casie.


Simple. They know what the rest of us do not. They buy after the rest of us have been fleeced.

Don't get me wrong; I have had a great time playing among the giants. Made a few coins. Still, never forgot that I was but just an ant trying not to be squashed by the elephants.


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## Inor

PalmettoTree said:


> How? The rich have not taken from me directly. If you want to say individual rich people like Buffett is setting richer off the failure to complete Keystone pipeline I agree.
> 
> How does the rich take during crashes?
> 
> You can make money up and down if you are as smart as Casie.


George Soros made over 1 billion pounds shorting the British Pound in 1992. Did you have any stocks denominated in Pounds then? I did and I took a beating. Did his short bet cause the failure or did he just profit from it? I honestly do not know. But my gut reaction is that such a big bet did move the markets in his direction.

"The rich" do not "cause" crashes. But some members of "the rich" have figured out that they can move the markets just by placing an order (either buy or sell) and adding some publicity behind it and make a huge profit for themselves. But the 64,000 dollar question is: Is that wrong? My answer is, I do not know. The Ayn Rand in me says: No. If somebody is a very successful investor and the rest of the investor community follows them, then they deserve what they get. The populist in me says that one man should not be able to bring down an entire currency.

Palmetto, you bring up probably the most difficult question I have seen posed here: Should a crazy rich man be punished for manipulating the markets using perfect;y legal means? If you answer "no" that means the crazy rich will be able to manipulate the markets through constraining supply or promoting demand in a way that none of us has access to. But if you answer "yes", then you are restricting the freedom of an individual to invest (or not invest) in a business based on his financial wellbeing now. Neither choice is particularly palatable. This is bitch of a question.


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## Casie

In 2013 Zoltar told me to take my profits out of the market and buy silver at $19 an oz.

I said, "Zoltar, are you sure? Silver?"

And he answered, "That's what Jamie Dimon is doing."

.........................................

All I know is, I sure sleep better now. But ask me in 5 years if I did the right thing. 

.........................................

FYI:
JP Morgan now holds the highest amount of physical silver in history. JPM was the largest buyer of COMEX silver in 2013. They are estimated to hold between 100 and 200 million ounces of physical silver (if not more). That's the equivalent of between 3,110 and 6,220 tonnes. They've been buying physical gold too in case anyone is interested.


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## Casie

Just to be clear. JPM = The Fed = The Market

*Or* Zoltar and I could be completely wrong, and Jamie just wanted the PMs to build a big shiny fort in his backyard for paintball. You never know.


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## Inor

Casie said:


> Just to be clear. JPM = The Fed = The Market
> 
> *Or* Zoltar and I could be completely wrong, and Jamie just wanted the PMs to build a big shiny fort in his backyard for paintball. You never know.


No, it is for fillings. Since Bloomberg's soda ban fell apart, the Morgue is afraid their employees are so stupid they are going to try and live on Big Gulps and Moon Pies and all of their teeth are going to rot out. Nothing to see here. Move along. These are not the droids you are looking for.


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## Casie

Inor! LOL!


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