# economic collapse signs?



## ghostman (Dec 11, 2014)

What are the signs to look out for when the economy goes down the crapper?


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## SARGE7402 (Nov 18, 2012)

Folks with lots of money and there's nothing to buy.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Banks have a "glitch" on a Friday and never open again. The weekend close is to give military 48 hours to move in.

Lots of companies and banks start having "glitches" lots trying to cover it up and go one more day to steal what they can.

For open and Venezuela cheap oil a sign, but for us it's other countries using something besides the dollar.

People selling off stock, like the Malaysian airlines boss did the day before the last plane trick.
Woman president, black president, gay president

Other money being traded here in our stores regularly

I am trying to think? They give no sign because they're screwing each other and one day the ball gets dropped.


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## Boss Dog (Feb 8, 2013)

When you elect and re-elect an ultra liberal who wants to fundamentally change America but cannot prove who he is or where he was born and has amassed $7 trillion in new debt with no plan to pay it all off. 
Sorry, I could not resist.


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

If you hear any talk of moving the global reserve currency off of the dollar in the media (that would be the precursor in my opinion). After that you would see commodities prices shoot through the roof. Hard assets like gold, art, real estate, oil, etc would rise exponentially. Another signal would be moving the US to a world currency. Either way it won't be good.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

In My humble Opinion we are heading there quickly... I wonder what sign will signal me to go take that last trip to the supermarket/ammo store/gas station... 

I have escalated my food gathering as of late, because I really think it will happen the later part of 2015... I know I know, there are a few folks on here that can not stand it if they think somebody is picking a date... I am not really picking a date - more of picking a season?

I do not think the US Economy can stand another 911... If we have an attack here by muslims that SHOCKS the senses...I think we will see businesses fail, unemployment rise, welfare over whelm the system...

For me - if there is an attack.. I will quickly look at what we have and what we need and get it done within 12 hours...


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## rjd25 (Nov 27, 2014)

It is hard to figure out an exact moment to pinpoint when you are experiencing it. Can you point to an "AHA!" moment from the 2007 collapse? I sure can't remember one EXACT thing that signaled doom. It is done that way by design, they don't want a mass exodus from the banks or stock markets. Your best bet is to keep a few thousand in your house, along with some PM's and all of the regulars food, water, ammo, shelter. You will be on step 5 while the masses are still saying "Oh my god how did this happen, what should we do?".


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## Auntie (Oct 4, 2014)

Someone once said in another thread 'start to worry when no one is posting on here, because they are all getting the last minute things done'.


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

ghostman said:


> What are the signs to look out for when the economy goes down the crapper?


If the Cubs are still in the race on July 4, the end is neigh.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

The pot will boil for a while before the frig is cooked. The water is warm now, but hardly boiling. 

Inflationary collapse watch prices increase faster and faster. In particular oil and gasoline, to a lessor extent metals, and consumer goods. Inflation may also accompany a higher interest rate setting, higher unemployment, and some product shortages. Stocks and markets in general will collpase slowly calling it a bear market.

Deflation (depression) a continual rising dollar compared to other currencies. PMs, oil and even real estate decline. Consumables would be the last to decline but they can. Interest rates remain low but people prefer hoarding dollars to investing, stocks slide as people want / need cash. Creditors call in loans and make fewer loans. Higher unemployment follows slow growth. Wages decline.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

With the great depression... the vast majority..even very intelligent people. MISSED IT

one day things were going the next the stock market crashed, people killed themselves, businesses closed, unemployment rose, 

before we were tied to the world mostly by exports and a loaner.... now we are an importer and a debtor.


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## Spice (Dec 21, 2014)

There is so much variety among historical collapses I think expecting any pattern to repeat is a sucker bet. What they all seem to have in common is a fundamental shift in what people value, in a relatively short time frame: Do they want a different currency? Do they want bullion or commodities instead of currency? Consumer goods instead of their cash? Cash instead of housing? People wanting cash instead of other things of value might indicate a collapse in that particular sector rather, while a sudden lack of regard for cash would make me think of a more general economic collapse. ( <--- my inexpert opinion, free and worth at least what you paid for it)


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## Danm (Nov 15, 2014)

Joe Biden becomes President with Hillary as vp im moving to the bunker.


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> If the Cubs are still in the race on July 4, the end is neigh.


Then, we have nothing to worry about!


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## Prepared One (Nov 5, 2014)

I don't think there will be any one sign. More like several situations coming together. Once it starts ( May have already begun ) there will be no turning it around. When exactly? I can not say except, I believe it is on our horizon.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

Oil drops below $50 a barrel for no reason. Economies over seas start to collapse. 18 trillion of debt with no end in sight.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

You have a point. In a deflationary crisis the last thing you want is debt. Think about that for a few seconds.

We all know creating money is inflationary right? 
What did the powers that be do over the last 5 years....create $3 trillion in new money. 
Yet no documented inflation (yes some goods cost more / but not wages).

My impression is that we are fortunate the powers that be know history. In the Great Depression our powers that be chose to stop creating money as a policy and we deflated. The markets crashed due to huge debts against bubble priced stocks. Today it's the opposite.

1) the FEDS creates trillions and yet the dollar remains strong.
2) huge corporations sell bonds at 2.5% because that's a cheaper way to raise cash then spending that they'd have to repatriate to the U.S. and pay taxes on.

Our job growth is minimal but it's still growth, and that means industry is hiring not hoarding cash in plight of an immediate crisis. Short of a power grid assault, banking system hack, or terrorist event the SHTF economically is a slow boil.



Chipper said:


> Oil drops below $50 a barrel for no reason. Economies over seas start to collapse. 18 trillion of debt with no end in sight.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

here you go
'


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I'd bet not in 2015 or 2016. The powers that be owe hildabeast her term in office. They won't let it collapse and deny her the prize. We are in a stagnated state just like Japan since the 1990s and will likely remain as we are for a few decades. Don't get me wrong I prep for economic collpase but I no longer fear it.



Maine-Marine said:


> here you go
> '
> View attachment 9284


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> I'd bet not in 2015 or 2016. The powers that be owe hildabeast her term in office. They won't let it collapse and deny her the prize. We are in a stagnated state just like Japan since the 1990s and will likely remain as we are for a few decades. Don't get me wrong I prep for economic collpase but I no longer fear it.


you keep saying no collapse 2015....

i am not so sure the folks in charge can stop an event once it tips over...

how long will other countries put up with us as a debtor nation...

When will opec demand other then US dollars

how long can we keep paying more then we take in


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

I think people give the government, TPTB, or whomever, way to much credit for being able to control events.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> I think people give the government, TPTB, or whomever, way to much credit for being able to control events.


I agree.. and as a matter of historical fact... when the government tries to control the event.. it gets worse...


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

They are not going to control the weather, extremist like those in radical Islam, or other anarchist like the hacking groups. They will however control monetary policy, commodities and keep governments in check. I think the last time they really failed was with some dude named hitler .



Diver said:


> I think people give the government, TPTB, or whomever, way to much credit for being able to control events.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

I really don't know where to start with this topic.

The "big picture" is like this:

The stock market is a house of cards that will come tumbling down before the end of 2015.

The U.S. dollar will collapse before the end of the year.

Inflation is already here. Check the prices of consumable goods lately? Compared those prices to when Obama took office in 2009?

The way that our government calculates the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation is a JOKE. The statistics that are crammed down our throats by the Obamanistas and their news media minions are meaningless and a complete LIE.

People that have IQs above room temperature and have the capability of being OBJECTIVE, are no longer being fooled by our various levels of government. If you TRUST what the government tells you, you are a fool.

People who are NOT preparing for the collapse of the U.S. economy are ignorant of what is going on, and what is going to happen in the near future.

As an "unconventional" minister, I pray every day for the PEOPLE who live in the United States, and pray that our people are preparing.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

PatriotFlamethrower said:


> I really don't know where to start with this topic.
> 
> The "big picture" is like this:
> 
> ...


Re: Stock market. How far will it fall?

Re: Dollar collapse. What currencies will do best? or are you suggesting PMs?

Re: Inflation. Has been occurring through my whole lifetime. What is different this time?

Re: Statistics. Believe them or not. I don't think anyone is "forcing them down our throats".

Re: Preparing for collapse. Preparing how? Actions to be taken for inflation vs. deflation are opposites.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

1. Stock market will not collapse. It will likely go up a little. Precious metals will go lower. 
2. Dollar will not collpase for the simple reason there is nothing else. 
3. Inflation is more then consumables. Energy is costing less, wages are not up, and not much will change that in 15.
4. People who aren't preparing are just as ignorant as those thinking a collapse can be predicted in any time frame.

Prepare by diversification and developing self sustaining life without the need for goods and services and whatever happens is not relevant.


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## Chipper (Dec 22, 2012)

2. Well the dollar can collapse. 

There is this thing called the Yen that certain countries are already trying to replace the dollar with. World wide trade will no longer be dollar based and our money will be worthless. The Yen will be backed by all the gold they are buying and the dollar will be backed with IOU from China. Goggle it.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> 1. Stock market will not collapse. It will likely go up a little. Precious metals will go lower.
> 2. Dollar will not collpase for the simple reason there is nothing else.
> 3. Inflation is more then consumables. Energy is costing less, wages are not up, and not much will change that in 15.
> 4. People who aren't preparing are just as ignorant as those thinking a collapse can be predicted in any time frame.
> ...


1. I agree but wouldn't be shocked by a correction at some point during the year. PMs are more relevant to 2.
2. I agree and if the oil surplus continues, the deficit continues to decline, the Fed begins to raise rates, etc. all will work to a stronger dollar.
3. I agree again.
4. What? No panic? This is a prepper forum! You're supposed to be in a panic that economic collapse will lead to a 90% die off!


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

Diver said:


> Re: Stock market. How far will it fall?
> 
> Re: Dollar collapse. What currencies will do best? or are you suggesting PMs?
> 
> ...


1. When the U.S. dollar collapses, ALL world currencies will follow. Have you seen what the Euro has been doing lately?

2. There is always some amount of inflation. Excessive printing of fiat currency (currency that is not secured by tangible assets) leads to runaway inflation, due to the dilution of the VALUE of the currency. Read about Argentina and what happened to their currency.

3. Every news outlet reports government statistics on inflation, unemployment, job growth, first-time unemployment filings, etc., and the news outlets quote these skewered and subjective statistics as GOSPEL.

4. Preparation is what this forum is about. Prepare for SURVIVAL. Get back to BASICS. Once you understand that the ONLY control you have is what happens under your own roof, then prepping becomes much easier. Food. Water. Shelter. Health. Protection. How you choose to handle those five categories may be the difference between life and death.

Lastly, PAPER wealth is not TANGIBLE wealth. Read all you can about ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds), derivatives, stocks, bonds, world currencies, etc., etc., etc.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> Preparing how? Actions to be taken for inflation vs. deflation are opposites.


Food will taste the same regardless of inflation or deflation

Water will taste the same regardless of inflation or deflation

Gun will shot the same regardless of inflation or deflation

wood will heat the same regardless of inflation or deflation

a House will keep you sheltered the same regardless of inflation or deflation


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Ripon said:


> 1. Stock market will not collapse. It will likely go up a little. Precious metals will go lower.
> 2. Dollar will not collpase for the simple reason there is nothing else.
> 3. Inflation is more then consumables. Energy is costing less, wages are not up, and not much will change that in 15.
> 4. People who aren't preparing are just as ignorant as those thinking a collapse can be predicted in any time frame.
> ...


We continue to disagree on this...

I say that we will have an event prior to Oct 2015 that will cause mass hardship


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

China uses the yuan not the yen. The yen is Japan's currency. At this moment neither is capable of being a reserve currency or even a manageable trade currency. In other words there isn't enough of them printed to manage the transfer of assets that goes on in the world. Besides if you think the consuming nations are going to give reserve currency status to a communist slave trade producer you are being quite naive. I mean no offense but without having an ounce of influence the world wouldn't remotely consider giving a regime like China's control. I also doubt they are buying any more gold then normal.



Chipper said:


> 2. Well the dollar can collapse.
> 
> There is this thing called the Yen that certain countries are already trying to replace the dollar with. World wide trade will no longer be dollar based and our money will be worthless. The Yen will be backed by all the gold they are buying and the dollar will be backed with IOU from China. Goggle it.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I know we do. And I appreciate how you do so with great respect and I only hope I show you the same respect in return.



Maine-Marine said:


> We continue to disagree on this...
> 
> I say that we will have an event prior to Oct 2015 that will cause mass hardship


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

PatriotFlamethrower said:


> 1. When the U.S. dollar collapses, ALL world currencies will follow. Have you seen what the Euro has been doing lately?
> 
> 2. There is always some amount of inflation. Excessive printing of fiat currency (currency that is not secured by tangible assets) leads to runaway inflationary, due to the dilution of the VALUE of the currency. Read about Argentina and what happened to their currency.
> 
> ...


1. By what logic do all other currencies follow the US dollar? By that logic they should all be going up right now.

2. We aren't Argentina. Argentina's debt was not in pesos, but in dollars. There was no way to solve a dollar debt with pesos.

3. Gospel? How can they be gospel when they get regularly revised?

4. If we are to have a stock market collapse, as you suggested, I want to short that market. If the market is not going to collapse, then I don't want to short that market. People get rich in market collapses. If you are as certain as you seem to be you should be taking advantage of your positions.

Re: Reading about various instruments, that's a big part of what I do for a living.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> Food will taste the same regardless of inflation or deflation
> 
> Water will taste the same regardless of inflation or deflation
> 
> ...


Water will be there either way. Guns will go up in price with inflation and down in price with deflation. Do I buy now or wait? I'll let the trees grow until I need them. You are correct that a house will helter me either way but I should rent during deflation and own during inflation.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Chipper said:


> 2. Well the dollar can collapse.
> 
> There is this thing called the Yen that certain countries are already trying to replace the dollar with. World wide trade will no longer be dollar based and our money will be worthless. The Yen will be backed by all the gold they are buying and the dollar will be backed with IOU from China. Goggle it.


If you're talking about the Japanese Yen, they're in worse debt than we are. The Japanese economy is smaller and has been stagnant for over 2 decades. The Yen is not gold backed now. Why would it become gold backed?


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> We continue to disagree on this...
> 
> I say that we will have an event prior to Oct 2015 that will cause mass hardship


Care to define "mass hardship"? I'd like to check on that prediction at the end of October.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> China uses the yuan not the yen. The yen is Japan's currency. At this moment neither is capable of being a reserve currency or even a manageable trade currency. In other words there isn't enough of them printed to manage the transfer of assets that goes on in the world. Besides if you think the consuming nations are going to give reserve currency status to a communist slave trade producer you are being quite naive. I mean no offense but without having an ounce of influence the world wouldn't remotely consider giving a regime like China's control. I also doubt they are buying any more gold then normal.


They also lack an adequate banking system to handle the amount of activity that reserve currency status implies.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> Care to define "mass hardship"? I'd like to check on that prediction at the end of October.


Sure... just remember--this is what I think, not what I KNOW... I do think it will happen but I sure am not going to be one of those folks that sells everything and goes to live in a cave......................................I will be very watchful in August and will not be far from home around Sept 13th

Something will happen in September that will trigger a dollar collapse... Businesses will go broke, unemployment will skyrocket, governments will struggle with meeting demands for welfare and entitlements.

The government will try to control food distribution, semi drivers will refuse to enter cities because of rioting, OPEC will demand gold and silver for oil. The US will try price fixing. a thriving black market will come to be.

The drought which has been going on for years out west will not end and produce from there will be non existent.


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Yeah I am afraid Maine is probably right


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## Salt-N-Pepper (Aug 18, 2014)

Diver said:


> Water will be there either way. Guns will go up in price with inflation and down in price with deflation. Do I buy now or wait? I'll let the trees grow until I need them. You are correct that a house will helter me either way but I should rent during deflation and own during inflation.


Guns and ammo will likely be one of the few things that hold their value if there is massive deflation, simply because that would probably mean civil unrest&#8230; and civil unrest is good for gun values (and bad for everything else).


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I admire your tenacity. The only way I see this partially happening is with terrorism on a Hollywood scale bigger then 911. Since none of that happened after 911. That is the only real reference I have to go on. Another example though would be the horrible tsunami which devasted Japan and the bigger one in Asia earlier that killed 200,000. I'm askin, IDK, but 10 years later how are they doing?



Maine-Marine said:


> Sure... just remember--this is what I think, not what I KNOW... I do think it will happen but I sure am not going to be one of those folks that sells everything and goes to live in a cave......................................I will be very watchful in August and will not be far from home around Sept 13th
> 
> Something will happen in September that will trigger a dollar collapse... Businesses will go broke, unemployment will skyrocket, governments will struggle with meeting demands for welfare and entitlements.
> 
> ...


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> Sure... just remember--this is what I think, not what I KNOW... I do think it will happen but I sure am not going to be one of those folks that sells everything and goes to live in a cave......................................I will be very watchful in August and will not be far from home around Sept 13th
> 
> Something will happen in September that will trigger a dollar collapse... Businesses will go broke, unemployment will skyrocket, governments will struggle with meeting demands for welfare and entitlements.
> 
> ...


In other words you are expecting a SHTF event before the end of October, not a mere Hurricane or other short term or regional event. Am I correct in thinking that you are predicting this to be an economic event that is causing this, or are you suggesting some other type of event, e.g. a terrorist act, would trigger a set of events that would impact the economy negatively along with all the other problems that were caused by the precipitating event?


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Salt-N-Pepper said:


> Guns and ammo will likely be one of the few things that hold their value if there is massive deflation, simply because that would probably mean civil unrest&#8230; and civil unrest is good for gun values (and bad for everything else).


By that logic wouldn't gun values drop as soon as the unrest ended?


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> I admire your tenacity. The only way I see this partially happening is with terrorism on a Hollywood scale bigger then 911. Since none of that happened after 911. That is the only real reference I have to go on. Another example though would be the horrible tsunami which devasted Japan and the bigger one in Asia earlier that killed 200,000. I'm askin, IDK, but 10 years later how are they doing?


While all of the events you mention had economic impact, none of them triggered anything I would characterize as an economic collapse. I think it is also important to distinguish whether an event is basically economic in nature, i.e. economics is the cause, or some other event has economic impacts, e.g. natural disasters, wars, etc. Personally I would not describe the latter as an economic collapse. I would characterize it by the precipitating event.

Since the thread started by looking for signs of an economic collapse, I would expect useful answers to be things like e.g. asset bubbles, decline in GDP, deflation, etc. However, the thread does seem to have shifted from how to forecast to several members who feel either an economic collapse, or an event which causes an economic collapse as part of the overall damage, will occur this year.

Personally, I don't see any more likelihood of such an event this year than last year or the following year, which is why I question those predictions. If one of those making such predictions had some interesting reasoning as to why 2015, it might make me change my thinking.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

I have made it clear I think this will happen. I am not a physic so will not "predict" it as happening!!!!!!!!!

I am really not trying to convince any one, and I am far less then dogmatic in this. if it happens it happens... I am not going to say I told you so....if it doesn't I will not accept ridicule.

call it a feeling in my bones, I do not care. 

The interesting thing is there are lots of others that also think Sept... 

Back to the OP - whats signs.... There do not have to be any visible signs, do not get caught in the trap of "we will see it coming" ... we may and we may not.... be ready.

Me - I will be as ready as possible the 1st of Sept and will be happy and go on with life if nothing happens... I am not going to quit my job, sell my house, or buy a underground bunker


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## oddapple (Dec 9, 2013)

Diver said:


> While all of the events you mention had economic impact, none of them triggered anything I would characterize as an economic collapse. I think it is also important to distinguish whether an event is basically economic in nature, i.e. economics is the cause, or some other event has economic impacts, e.g. natural disasters, wars, etc. Personally I would not describe the latter as an economic collapse. I would characterize it by the precipitating event.
> 
> Since the thread started by looking for signs of an economic collapse, I would expect useful answers to be things like e.g. asset bubbles, decline in GDP, deflation, etc. However, the thread does seem to have shifted from how to forecast to several members who feel either an economic collapse, or an event which causes an economic collapse as part of the overall damage, will occur this year.
> 
> Personally, I don't see any more likelihood of such an event this year than last year or the following year, which is why I question those predictions. If one of those making such predictions had some interesting reasoning as to why 2015, it might make me change my thinking.


You are calculating by reason in an unreasonable deal.
I think, if I am on rotation for Jeff Foxworthy people acres in 21-22, they will be over by then and whoever is left will be simpleton children under total control. They are already bagged and being systematically broken down. They are presently at the stage where it's not even drug-snitch circle commerce any more, they're whoring.
Ask a russian. Whoring is the last economy before not at all. After not at all, minor whores will be the only ones.
Those are signs you can pretty much "bank" on.
Look at Karmafornia. That's the slower progression even without the bother of faking a disaster or war.
I also think it will go in chunks. They will go after the yanks before the mean-nothing-now-anyways people.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> I have made it clear I think this will happen. I am not a physic so will not "predict" it as happening!!!!!!!!!
> 
> I am really not trying to convince any one, and I am far less then dogmatic in this. if it happens it happens... I am not going to say I told you so....if it doesn't I will not accept ridicule.
> 
> ...


Fair enough. It's a feeling, not a prediction.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

Maine-Marine said:


> I have made it clear I think this will happen. I am not a physic so will not "predict" it as happening!!!!!!!!!
> 
> I am really not trying to convince any one, and I am far less then dogmatic in this. if it happens it happens... I am not going to say I told you so....if it doesn't I will not accept ridicule.
> 
> ...


Apparently there are some people in this forum who have not done any research and investigating on the internet. There are PLENTY of economic experts who are predicting a very serious economic catastrophe before the end of 2015.

Our ACTUAL unemployment rate is very close to what it was during the Great Depression (25%). The DJIA is teetering on an unstable tower of derivatives, short-selling, and PAPER wealth. The national debt has DOUBLED since 2009. The number of people collecting welfare has DOUBLED since 2009. Thousands of businesses have closed their doors since 2009. The list of warning signs is endless, and there are economic experts out there with unlimited credentials who are warning of a catastrophic economic collapse THIS YEAR.

Forget about "historical" facts and data. Don't believe the skewered government statistics. ANYTHING that a politician states MUST be looked at with suspicion, and the assumption that they are LYING to us.

This country, our economy, are navigating in previously unchartered waters. It is easier to NOT believe what is actually happening, and believe what the government and news media are telling you. People who are not prepping are doing a disservice to their families and are acting irresponsibly.

Yes, prepping involves planning and sacrificing and physical labor and money commitment. Prepping is a NEW way of life. The key word in that last sentence is LIFE.

Pay attention to what most of the good people in this forum are sharing with everybody else. This is a matter of LIFE and DEATH.


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## remcbride (Nov 10, 2013)

Obama declares marshal law .. September 10 2016.. then no elections in November. . obama remains in power. .


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

remcbride said:


> Obama declares marshal law .. September 10 2016.. then no elections in November. . obama remains in power. .


1st it is *Martial law* not marshal law... LOL\

2nd the Military would never go for it... oh some commanders might but over all... not going to happen


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> If one of those making such predictions had some interesting reasoning as to why 2015, it might make me change my thinking.


interesting reasons... here are two

Shmita Year 2015 Ends 13 Sept 2015
Jubilee Year Starts on the Day of Atonement in the fall of 2015


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> interesting reasons... here are two
> 
> Shmita Year 2015 Ends 13 Sept 2015
> Jubilee Year Starts on the Day of Atonement in the fall of 2015


And how does that become an economic collapse?


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## James m (Mar 11, 2014)

Sign of economic collapse: Hillary wins the election.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> And how does that become an economic collapse?


One world currency needs a collapse


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

Diver said:


> And how does that become an economic collapse?


I am trying to figure out if you are playing "devil's advocate", or if you have been really DUPED by the Obama regime into believing that everything is just fine.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

I have to admit, I am only smart enough to understand a fraction of what I am seeing in the world. Maybe these articles have a point, maybe not. Y'all decide. According to these thoughts, we are barreling toward serious deflation, collapse, war and anarchy...

DECEMBER RETAIL SALES ? UNEQUIVOCAL DISASTER « The Burning Platform

Major War Exploding Soon-Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter?s USAWatchdog


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

Another piece of info; the number of troubled retail companies. Not good at all....

The US Retail Industry is Collapsing: Here?s Why You?re in Trouble | From the Trenches World Report


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

You could write this report every 10 years. Remember Circuit City and Good Guys? There are a few grocery store chains I can't even remember any more. How about Mervyn's. Meanwhile we got Amazon, Apple Stores, and coming soon to a screen near you....alibaba.com no kidding.

Traditional retail sales are going to get hit hard. I'll venture to guess the whole darn concept will be obsolete once we get drone delivery from a warehouse on demand.



Denton said:


> Another piece of info; the number of troubled retail companies. Not good at all....
> 
> The US Retail Industry is Collapsing: Here?s Why You?re in Trouble | From the Trenches World Report


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

To highlight the concerning nature I heard Glen Beck this morning mention: "all this without a war going on." Very intriguing statement. Yet a lot is still going on. Is it a lot compared to, lets say 1969? We had a war going on then (a police action I guess it was called), protest, riots, and if I'm not mistaken wasn't a piece of LA under continuous police state like control? Yet some how we made it through. Market dropped on this news today like a rock, but I wouldn't bet on it staying down.



Denton said:


> I have to admit, I am only smart enough to understand a fraction of what I am seeing in the world. Maybe these articles have a point, maybe not. Y'all decide. According to these thoughts, we are barreling toward serious deflation, collapse, war and anarchy...
> 
> DECEMBER RETAIL SALES ? UNEQUIVOCAL DISASTER « The Burning Platform
> 
> Major War Exploding Soon-Charles Nenner | Greg Hunter?s USAWatchdog


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

The market can not crash if it is not UP...


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

PatriotFlamethrower said:


> I am trying to figure out if you are playing "devil's advocate", or if you have been really DUPED by the Obama regime into believing that everything is just fine.


I am not saying things are just fine. Quite the contrary, I believe the economic collapse started in 2007 and that most of the folks in this thread haven't noticed. As a result, I find the idea that the collapse will start 9 months from now a bit off.


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

By the time there are signs it is likely too late:

Interest rates going up, prices going up FAST, Foreign goods that used to be less expensive are now expensive, and loan defaults climbing faster than the interest rates.

Like I said, by the time you see the signs it has already happened.


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## PatriotFlamethrower (Jan 10, 2015)

PaulS said:


> By the time there are signs it is likely too late:
> 
> Interest rates going up, prices going up FAST, Foreign goods that used to be less expensive are now expensive, and loan defaults climbing faster than the interest rates.
> 
> Like I said, by the time you see the signs it has already happened.


Interest rates are going up? Since when?


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## PaulS (Mar 11, 2013)

Heh, Flamethrower...

the conversation was about "what signs would you have for a total economic collapse".

We are NOT there YET. The economy is being held up through great effort and greater expense to our children and their children.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

PaulS said:


> By the time there are signs it is likely too late:
> 
> Interest rates going up, prices going up FAST, Foreign goods that used to be less expensive are now expensive, and loan defaults climbing faster than the interest rates.
> 
> Like I said, by the time you see the signs it has already happened.


Interest rates going up (I'd say after they have risen to normal levels) would indicate an inflationary environment and would be negative. Agreed.

Prices going up = inflation again. Agreed.

Foreign goods becoming expensive = Dollar declining vs. other currencies implies inflation again. Agreed.

Loan defaults increasing faster than interest rates. I'm not sure how you compare the two, but Loan defaults are definitely a sign of stress, so I agree.

You seem to have emphasized inflationary problems but not deflationary, or simply non-inflationary problems.

Personally, I'll go with something that is an earlier indicator and doesn't depend on prices being either inflationary or deflationary, i.e. the level of employment (do not confuse this with the unemployment rate). Figures on employment are produced weekly and monthly and respond quickly to changing economic conditions. The unemployment rate doesn't work as well despite being more widely publicized, due to the changing labor participation rates. In other words the best indicator in my mind is the total number of private sector jobs in the economy.


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## Maine-Marine (Mar 7, 2014)

Diver said:


> I believe the economic collapse started in 2007 and that most of the folks in this thread haven't noticed. As a result, I find the idea that the collapse will start 9 months from now a bit off.


The fact you think that many of us have not noticed... thats what I find a BIT OFF


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Maine-Marine said:


> The fact you think that many of us have not noticed... thats what I find a BIT OFF


How so? The whole thread seems to suggest an economic collapse is something yet to occur.


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## Slippy (Nov 14, 2013)

Diver 
You certainly are a strange little passive/aggressive feller aren't you?


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

In our current world and state of things I find deflation more likely then hyper inflation



PaulS said:


> By the time there are signs it is likely too late:
> 
> Interest rates going up, prices going up FAST, Foreign goods that used to be less expensive are now expensive, and loan defaults climbing faster than the interest rates.
> 
> Like I said, by the time you see the signs it has already happened.


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## Diver (Nov 22, 2014)

Ripon said:


> In our current world and state of things I find deflation more likely then hyper inflation


For most of the past 6-8 years I would be inclined to agree. Going forward I think the Fed has a challenge getting back to normal at a pace that fits economic activity. If they get it wrong we could see either inflation or deflation depending on which way they err.


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## aaronisx (Nov 9, 2014)

A huge sign to me is the lower gas prices. Oil being cheap means cheap gas but is bad for oil jobs here in Texas. People will lose jobs and may not be picked up in other job sectors. Real estate will decline and more job losses will occur. Bad things are happening due to our dependence on foreign oil and the Saudis and opec are intentionally trying to destabilize our economy so that the world trade currency changes from the us dollar to something else. Prepare now people.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Please look at this another way for a moment. And please note I say the same thing about Chinese goods and Walmart when people think we need to protect US jobs some how.

6 months ago I think gasoline cost me $3.50 a gallon and I bought 20 of them every week for $70. Now they cost me $2.25 a gallon and I still need 20 gallons a week (well not really now but if I was still working I would) and that would cost me $45 a week. So while the oil workers in Texas and North Dakota could suffer and probably will I spend $25 less a week, and if I'm like 80 million others that work full time that would be $2 billion a week. That is $2 billion a week I either save or spend (really no other option). If I spend it then I'm creating a need some where else that wasn't there before = jobs. If I save it my bank needs to lend the money to someone which usually = jobs. Either way its actually a good thing for our national economy just not those workers in Texas and ND (and a few others).

This applies to Chinese goods and Wal Mart too. When they offer a widget at 1.25 and the American made widget companies is $2.00 the US widget makers all get screwed. But if enough people saving that .75 on cheap chinese widgets spend on other goods and create more savings they end up creating more jobs - just not widgets.



aaronisx said:


> A huge sign to me is the lower gas prices. Oil being cheap means cheap gas but is bad for oil jobs here in Texas. People will lose jobs and may not be picked up in other job sectors. Real estate will decline and more job losses will occur. Bad things are happening due to our dependence on foreign oil and the Saudis and opec are intentionally trying to destabilize our economy so that the world trade currency changes from the us dollar to something else. Prepare now people.


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## aaronisx (Nov 9, 2014)

Please look at it this way. If you don't remember then I'll remind you that in 2008-10 banks did no lending. I am adverse to sending China money for savings when an american product is available. Minimal savings to purchase another product probably foreign made as well isn't good for the country. It'll only boost low income service jobs. Our current jobs are higher paying.


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## aaronisx (Nov 9, 2014)

You have to examine where the money it's going and to what sectors. Our economy will support newer sector. Oil and gas for service work isnt an equitable trade.


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## shootbrownelk (Jul 9, 2014)

aaronisx said:


> A huge sign to me is the lower gas prices. Oil being cheap means cheap gas but is bad for oil jobs here in Texas. People will lose jobs and may not be picked up in other job sectors. Real estate will decline and more job losses will occur. Bad things are happening due to our dependence on foreign oil and the Saudis and opec are intentionally trying to destabilize our economy so that the world trade currency changes from the us dollar to something else. Prepare now people.


 Lay-offs are starting here in Wyoming too Aaronisx. Not a lot so far, but oil was at $45 a barrel today. Good for us consumers, bad for our economy in the oil regions.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I disagree, as politely as I can, for I don't think you view the "savings" as meaningful and beneficial to our economy.

Its quite possible someone saves enough money due to low cost goods they can start there own business. Its quite possible the added money in the bank enables a bank to give a new business a loan. Its impossible to measure / it is theory. Yet we can see that it has worked in the past with taxation. Reduced taxes almost ALWAYS generate more taxes once the cycle turns of people spending and saving the difference. George Bush Sr., earned himself a hosing by the voters when he let the democratic congress raise taxes and he signed it. His economics team begged him not too because he'd arbitrarily got interest rates reduced so people could refinance their mortgages. Unfortunately they reached such a saturation point on that a housing bubble followed the dot com boom and we ended up with 08/09. Still their theory was "lower mortgages = more money to invest and spend" and they were right. And its still true today. If you raise taxes you take money away from innovation, from consumers and you cost the private sector jobs. As BIG as government is, stupidly, it doesn't create nearly the amount of jobs as the private sector.

If we manage to "scare" up oil prices and get gasoline back to $3 or $3.75 (whatever) we might benefit a few thousand oil field workers, a few thousand refinery types, truckers and miscellaneous but we end up taking $140/180 billion a year out of people's pockets that would otherwise be used creating all kinds of jobs (some low end - some not).



aaronisx said:


> Please look at it this way. If you don't remember then I'll remind you that in 2008-10 banks did no lending. I am adverse to sending China money for savings when an american product is available. Minimal savings to purchase another product probably foreign made as well isn't good for the country. It'll only boost low income service jobs. Our current jobs are higher paying.


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