# Yield Curve Inversion & Recession



## Green Lilly

Afternoon all. I woke up this morning to all the news outlets screaming that the 2 yr and 10 yr yield curve has inverted for the first time since 2005. Every recession for the last 50 years has been prefaced with this inversion. Typically it takes 8 to 24 months before the actual recession hits after the first time the curve inverts. Has anyone been reading up on this today? This is one of the top things on my "To Prep For" list, economic issues. 

Couple that with the 8-24 month time frame landing us right smack in the middle of the next election cycle and I am concerned. Will be doubling down my efforts. A faltering economy and a heated election cycle could spell trouble.


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## Smitty901

I am going to do the same thing I have done for a life time. Ride it not panic and vote. Why change a plan that works. Most of the experts are just try to push their agenda and use your fear to make a buck themselves.


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## jimb1972

I moved about 80% of my money out of stocks last week. My exposure will be limited until after the election or it gets so low I an't resist. I may miss out on some profit if the boom continues, but I think we are about to see some more hard times.


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## Denton

jimb1972 said:


> I moved about 80% of my money out of stocks last week. My exposure will be limited until after the election or it gets so low I an't resist. I may miss out on some profit if the boom continues, but I think we are about to see some more hard times.


I started feeling edgy about two weeks ago. Parked most all in cash.


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## Slippy

The overall "real" economy has been good but not great. I believe that Housing and Construction are huge economic indicators and we have not seen housing or commercial construction reach the levels that is needed. Part of the fake economy has been the fact that the Feds are still spending almost a Trillion $ more than they confiscate.

The medical industry is also a huge part of the false economic picture, using more and more of confiscated tax dollars. I have not bought into this economy being the "best ever". 

So, I do not doubt that we are sliding toward a recession.


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## Chiefster23

Since retiring two years ago I have greatly simplified my life. Other than a tractor payment, I have zero debt. All investments are very conservative with a significant portion in cash. The few stocks I own are all blue chip and pay reliable dividends. I only withdraw interest and dividends. Never touch the principal. Raised bed gardens. Water on the property. Coal heat with the whole winter supply already in the coal bunker. A small solar set up with batteries and inverter. Two generators with ample fuel reserves. Enough cooking propane for to last a year. Recession? I couldn’t care less. But I do pity others who are in a less secure situation.

I think the vast majority of this countries woes (including recession) are caused by the idiots in Washington who absolutely couldn’t care less about the plight of us citizens.


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## Annie

Smitty901 said:


> I am going to do the same thing I have done for a life time. Ride it not panic and vote. Why change a plan that works. Most of the experts are just try to push their agenda and use your fear to make a buck themselves.


That was always my Dad's advice (God rest his soul). He was a stock broker he said the best way to go is to pick a sure thing and leave it alone. Over time, it'll go up. In other words, no no touchy. I don't know for how long that'll still work, but he always bet on slow and steady.


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## jimcosta

I think the world just realized that the global financial system and its Central Banks are broken beyond repair.
This may rock on for weeks or a few months, but it is in collapse. The Epstein story is simply covering fire, much like the Chicken or Egg riddle, to keep us occupied.

Your thoughts?


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## Steve40th

I am going to just pay off high interest debt I have , so I dont have that over head.. Other than that, riding it out.


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## Slippy

US 

$22 TRILLION in Federal debt and counting. 

Student Loan debt around $1.6 TRILLION and delinquencies are rising

Mortgage Debt at all time high

Total Consumer Debt above $14 TRILLION with auto delinquency reaching highs...

Storm clouds on horizon


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## Steve40th

The real debt is over 90 Trillion. War is coming. Great Britain just finished paying us off, around 2006, from the Lend Lease Program from WW2


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## Smitty901

Steve40th said:


> I am going to just pay off high interest debt I have , so I dont have that over head.. Other than that, riding it out.


 No debt . As for the children we paid as they went out of pocket. 1 son helped pay second son, both sons helped pay daughters. If a family works together you don't have to be rich and famous.


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## Smitty901

posted twice ?


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## modfan

The actual last time there was a yield curve inversion was in 2007. it started oscillating in 2005. In this century it only didn't predict recession twice. According to the San Fran fed each of the 8 recessions since 1955 have happened 6 to 24 months after a yield inversion. Every inversion since 1970 has predated a recession.


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## Smitty901

If socialist win big in the next election the market will fall . If not we will be ok. So where do you place your bets.


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## Denton

Smitty901 said:


> If socialist win big in the next election the market will fall . If not we will be ok. So where do you place your bets.


It's going to fail, regardless.
Trump is the President and the government is spending huge. Doesn't matter who is president. A debt-based economy will not survive.


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## Slippy

Denton said:


> It's going to fail, regardless.
> Trump is the President and the government is spending huge. Doesn't matter who is president. A debt-based economy will not survive.


https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-n...re-debt-and-bankruptcies-are-surging_08142019

Very interesting article regarding consumer and business debt and the extinction of the true middle class.


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## Green Lilly

Slippy said:


> https://www.shtfplan.com/headline-n...re-debt-and-bankruptcies-are-surging_08142019
> 
> Very interesting article regarding consumer and business debt and the extinction of the true middle class.


It is an interesting article. I think he leans a little heavy on the brick and mortars going down. Its hard to say if that is really an economic indicator anymore because people rely so heavily on online shopping. My shopping habits have changed significantly with the rise of Amazon etc. Mostly because I am not a fan of people in general but it is so easy just to point and click and have what you need at the door if you don't need it right that minute.

I have been doing what I can to get my debt down. All my CC are paid off, only have 2 anyways. My car is almost paid off, 4 more payments. Buy used wherever I can to avoid payments like the plague. I wholeheartedly agree that debt is what is going to get us.


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## jimcosta

I think the Financial talking heads are in panic today as evidenced by the Main Street News failing to mention yesterday's stock loss last night or this morning.

To me the Fed is in checkmate. If they* lower* interest rates they balloon up the problem and will take the fall when it finally goes pop. Then too, there was a global loss of 3% yesterday so how can the Fed at this point prop up the entire world?

If the Fed *increases *rates they will cause the U. S. stock market to crash immediately, thus being blamed for it.

If the Fed *fails to act* the Market will probably crash by itself within a couple of months. Again the Fed will be blamed.

The world is now wise to the realization that the global markets are and have collapsed and the stock markets are greatly overpriced to conceal what has happened since 2008.

All I can say is *let's wait a few days* and see what comes out of yesterday's drop when the experts finally write about it. In the meantime govern yourself accordingly.


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## Green Lilly

jimcosta said:


> I think the Financial talking heads are in panic today as evidenced by the Main Street News failing to mention yesterday's stock loss last night or this morning.
> 
> To me the Fed is in checkmate. If they* lower* interest rates they balloon up the problem and will take the fall when it finally goes pop. Then too, there was a global loss of 3% yesterday so how can the Fed at this point prop up the entire world?
> 
> If the Fed *increases *rates they will cause the U. S. stock market to crash immediately, thus being blamed for it.
> 
> If the Fed *fails to act* the Market will probably crash by itself within a couple of months. Again the Fed will be blamed.
> 
> The world is now wise to the realization that the global markets are and have collapsed and the stock markets are greatly overpriced to conceal what has happened since 2008.
> 
> All I can say is *let's wait a few days* and see what comes out of yesterday's drop when the experts finally write about it. In the meantime govern yourself accordingly.


I thought it pretty odd that no one was really talking about the market loss.


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## jimcosta

Are you deft??? Move along folks, nothing to see here! Remain calm, all is well.
Yesterday was the fourth largest daily decline in U.S. history.

https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4"]
https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4"]https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4


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## Slippy

jimcosta said:


> Are you deft??? Move along folks, nothing to see here! Remain calm, all is well.
> Yesterday was the fourth largest daily decline in U.S. history.
> 
> https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4"]
> https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4"]https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-11-2016/yMclkJ.mp4


Way to show some passion Jim!


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## Inor

One of the biggest benefits of "going Galt" is I no longer care if there is a recession or not.

I have no debt, so I have nothing to repossess. I have been self-employed for the last 23 years so I have no job to be laid off from.

If a recession happens, the only thing it means to me is that I will be spending less time in airports and more time at home doing what I want to do.


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## rice paddy daddy

Listening to Rush and a guest, this is no big deal, but is being made out to be one by people wanting to crash the market.
The guy made sense, especially when it came to being a predictor of a recession.


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## Chiefster23

The left is desperate for some type of financial disaster that will wreck the economy. With all the socialist wackos running for president, a recession is their only shot at beating Trump.


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## hawgrider

rice paddy daddy said:


> Listening to Rush and a guest, this is no big deal, but is being made out to be one by people wanting to crash the market.
> The guy made sense, especially when it came to being a predictor of a recession.





Chiefster23 said:


> The left is desperate for some type of financial disaster that will wreck the economy. With all the socialist wackos running for president, a recession is their only shot at beating Trump.


My thoughts exactly. They don't want Trump to get credit for a decent economy.


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## Smitty901

We live in a time when everything is extreme. The big the smallest the coldest the hottest . Part of it like in finance is because more people are directly playing the game. many more see them self as traders that know the game . There are enough of them now to really have an effect when they jump in and out. Our whole society has changed and the effects of that change are now showing up more. 
I stand my ground. Don't play the market I do invest. Investing means long term. I did buy some gold awhile back.


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## stowlin

The US election is coming who do you want to win if you are China? I ask because they can impose a recession on the US pretry easily just engage in a trade war. 

The US election is 14 months out? Who do you want to win if you need more money for oil like Venezuela, Iran and Russia? Higher oil prices lead the US into the 08/09 near depression which wouldn’t be the same today in housing. 

Looks like the worlds powers are up to some collusion with who they want to win.


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## Prepared One

I am going to stand pat for now, but the reality is, despite the perceived Trump economic boom, that 22 trillion dollar house of cards will come down sooner rather then later. we have been teetering for decades. The demonrats will, of course, push recession hard because it's all they have. If the economy is in the tank it's easier to sell socialism. 

Is a world economic collapse the first domino?


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## rstanek

I did some purchasing yesterday afternoon, buy low, sell high, some of my previous stocks are taking a hit, been there before, they will be back, just have to be patient......


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## Smitty901

Here we go again. End of the world oh wait maybe not sorry over reaction. I did invest in some copper and lead. But nothing news worthy.

"Stocks set to soar to end volatile week"

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stocks-aug-16-2019


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## jimcosta

*Jim's Rant For The Day. The Big Short, Again.*

For those of you who have not seen the movie The Big Short, it is about three unrelated Hedge Fund managers who saw the Mortgage Backed Security market crash coming in 2007 - 2008 that basically destroyed our economy and brought on the Bailouts and where we are today, facing another collapse.
The movie details how those managers bet the bankers that a collapse would occur, and in so betting, made fortunes for themselves when it did collapse.

Now enter the Big Short Part II (live and on a Wall Street near you).

Remember Harry Markopolos? He was the analyst that showed the world that Bernie Madoff, the believed genius of Wall Street Hedge Funds, was really running a massive Ponzi scheme. To my knowledge Markopolos made no money on his shocking research, except perhaps a book deal after.

Well, it now appears that Markopolos is a fast learner. He has now exposed GE as on the verge of bankruptcy even though their audited financial reports say otherwise. But this time he works privately for an undisclosed hedge fund. When asked about that relationship he said he "needed to earn a living."

He stated he will get a cut of the profits that result from his research. This can only mean that the Hedge Fund has already purchased bets with the bankers that GE will collapse - thus the Big Short II, live. How long does Markopolos give GE to collapse? He says within two months.

This is just one more straw to break the camel's back.

*See:*


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## Annie

jimcosta said:


> *Jim's Rant For The Day. The Big Short, Again.*
> 
> For those of you who have not seen the movie The Big Short, it is about three unrelated Hedge Fund managers who saw the Mortgage Backed Security market crash coming in 2007 - 2008 that basically destroyed our economy and brought on the Bailouts and where we are today, facing another collapse.
> The movie details how those managers bet the bankers that a collapse would occur, and in so betting, made fortunes for themselves when it did collapse.
> 
> Now enter the Big Short Part II (live and on a Wall Street near you).
> 
> Remember Harry Markopolos? He was the analyst that showed the world that Bernie Madoff, the believed genius of Wall Street Hedge Funds, was really running a massive Ponzi scheme. To my knowledge Markopolos made no money on his shocking research, except perhaps a book deal after.
> 
> Well, it now appears that Markopolos is a fast learner. He has now exposed GE as on the verge of bankruptcy even though their audited financial reports say otherwise. But this time he works privately for an undisclosed hedge fund. When asked about that relationship he said he "needed to earn a living."
> 
> He stated he will get a cut of the profits that result from his research. This can only mean that the Hedge Fund has already purchased bets with the bankers that GE will collapse - thus the Big Short II, live. How long does Markopolos give GE to collapse? He says within two months.
> 
> This is just one more straw to break the camels back.
> 
> *See:*


Oh, the rogues! Rats and scoundrels!


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## Smitty901

jimcosta said:


> *Jim's Rant For The Day. The Big Short, Again.*
> 
> For those of you who have not seen the movie The Big Short, it is about three unrelated Hedge Fund managers who saw the Mortgage Backed Security market crash coming in 2007 - 2008 that basically destroyed our economy and brought on the Bailouts and where we are today, facing another collapse.
> The movie details how those managers bet the bankers that a collapse would occur, and in so betting, made fortunes for themselves when it did collapse.
> 
> Now enter the Big Short Part II (live and on a Wall Street near you).
> 
> Remember Harry Markopolos? He was the analyst that showed the world that Bernie Madoff, the believed genius of Wall Street Hedge Funds, was really running a massive Ponzi scheme. To my knowledge Markopolos made no money on his shocking research, except perhaps a book deal after.
> 
> Well, it now appears that Markopolos is a fast learner. He has now exposed GE as on the verge of bankruptcy even though their audited financial reports say otherwise. But this time he works privately for an undisclosed hedge fund. When asked about that relationship he said he "needed to earn a living."
> 
> He stated he will get a cut of the profits that result from his research. This can only mean that the Hedge Fund has already purchased bets with the bankers that GE will collapse - thus the Big Short II, live. How long does Markopolos give GE to collapse? He says within two months.
> 
> This is just one more straw to break the camel's back.
> 
> *See:*


 What caused the problem was forcing lenders to give loans that could never be paid. creating a false flipping market that anyone could see would fail.


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## rstanek

Burn the word “recession” into the general public via the media and it will happen......


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## jimcosta

*The Fed is in a blind panic after the 800 point drop this week. They don't know what to do.*

"In an unprecedented action . . . Powell has banned any public appearances by any Fed Board member, noting that "appearances at conferences have been canceled, all scheduled interviews have been abandoned and any comments on or off the record are outlawed."

Article: *Powell Issues Gag Order To Fed Presidents: Report*


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## Slippy

Smitty901 said:


> What caused the problem was forcing lenders to give loans that could never be paid. creating a false flipping market that anyone could see would fail.


Exactly!^^^^^

Turn the clock back to the mid 1990's and every federal politician agreed that giving La'Kreshia Jones-Smith and her fiance De'Jamal Washington who reside in (pick your city...Atlanta, Chicago, Detroit, LA, Orlando, Phoenix,...) a loan for an $800,000 home with Zero Down even though La'Kreshia owed $40K in student loans for her 6 years at Morehouse College and just signed a lease for a Mercedes for $1000/Month on her job as a Social Worker making $42k...and De'Jamal still owes $25K on his student loans from Florida A&M and has an Escalade Lease for $800/Month and just got laid off from his job at UPS because he couldn't show up to work on time...OH and La'Kreshia is pregnant and they are planning a wedding in the Bahama's next spring...

And any Lending Institution that would not give this wonderful couple a loan was determined to be racist and in violation of hundreds of federal laws and therefor must rot in hell...

This is Slippy's Reason #279 TO NEVER BELIEVE THAT POLITICIANS HAVE A CLUE WHAT IS BEST FOR ANYTHING


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## jimcosta

Want to know how scared the world leaders are after the 800 market drop?
Just take a look at the headlines that are now pouring out. This is my Collapse News Blog: ResetUs.us


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## rice paddy daddy

GE has been in financial trouble for years.
If not for Obama bailing them out with taxpayer dollars they would have been gone in 2009.


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## rice paddy daddy

GE has been in financial trouble for years.
If not for Obama bailing them out with taxpayer dollars they would have been gone in 2009.


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## Slippy

GE ain't going anywhere...

(Says the guy who was holding Bear Stearns stock in 2008...:sad2


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## rice paddy daddy

Slippy said:


> GE ain't going anywhere...
> 
> (Says the guy who was holding Bear Stearns stock in 2008...:sad2


"Too big to fail."


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## Elvis

jimb1972 said:


> I moved about 80% of my money out of stocks last week. My exposure will be limited until after the election or it gets so low I an't resist. I may miss out on some profit if the boom continues, but I think we are about to see some more hard times.


Keep in mind that unless you make less than about $40,000/yr you'll probably be paying capitol gains tax on any profit from the sale of that stock..


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## jimb1972

Elvis said:


> Keep in mind that unless you make less than about $40,000/yr you'll probably be paying capitol gains tax on any profit from the sale of that stock..


I did not sell any, only exchanged it into bond and precious metals funds.


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## stowlin

80% was steep but everyone is in different stages of wealth and life, and since it’s my trade I can’t really tell anyone what is right for them because each person differs in their place in life. I am pretty much dependent on stocks and the income I obtain from them. I have at least 50% in dividend plays that means a common stock with at least 4.2% annual from my buy price, 30% growth stocks, 10% PM ETFs and 10% high risk trade positions. I’m all in now, was last year and the year before. SHTF in stocks and unless dividends are slashed I just wait it out, I’m early 50’s and should never need the principle but what I take out is almost all “principle” so that I suffer no taxable gains.


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