# Preppers Fear Inflation & Ignore Deflation



## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Yesterday I posted about my favorite, even secret, Canadian Commemorative Coin for its $20 per ounce of silver face vale. I switched all but my pre 64 silver to these coins over the past three years. When silver is below $20 it's hard because the face value makes seller demand more.

This coin is important to me because I believe deflation is a real risk. I'm looking at the collapse of PMs right now as a sign of deflation, if the stocks follow PMs and collapse a third of our markets equity could vanish just like half the value of our homes. See the pattern? Deflation would nearly destroy most PM holdings because cash is king.


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## Jardude (Apr 3, 2013)

We never lost any real value on our homes.

PMs are down right now because of outside forces trying to bring them down in order for those forces to buy them.

Deflation is possible. Is it a real risk? NIMO.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

My neighbor bought his home in June 06 for $369,000. His mortgage today is prob about $250,000. I bought a home next to him in Dec 2010 on a larger lot, with a little more sq footage, for $134,500. Six months later, July 2011, a little worn down home on the opposite side was sold at auction for $85,000. The buyer added a roof, paint job, carpets, and front land scape and flipped it for $125,000 in Oct 2011. I'd say my neighbor lost some real value in his $369,000 purchase considering he would be lucky to get $135k today.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

I hope he can hold his breath a long time! He's seriously under water.

What the H_ll is going on with gold and silver? Prices are way the F down.


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## Jardude (Apr 3, 2013)

Ripon said:


> My neighbor bought his home in June 06 for $369,000. His mortgage today is prob about $250,000. I bought a home next to him in Dec 2010 on a larger lot, with a little more sq footage, for $134,500. Six months later, July 2011, a little worn down home on the opposite side was sold at auction for $85,000. The buyer added a roof, paint job, carpets, and front land scape and flipped it for $125,000 in Oct 2011. I'd say my neighbor lost some real value in his $369,000 purchase considering he would be lucky to get $135k today.


There wasn't any _real_ value there.

Do you think the PM market is inflated akin to the housing market?


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

I think your definition of real value and mine differ greatly.

By the way $1,000,000,000,000 (that is 1 trillion US Dollars) was lost in the last 2 days of trading on gold.


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

Gold and silver are commodites in supply side money system (Keynesian?) such as currently in vogue. Gold and silver were divorced from the money system in such a way that allowed them to float. 

If it floats it can bubble and if it bubbles it can burst. It's subject to the market force, by virtue of being treated no differently than an other commonly traded commodity.

Think about it, if you were sitting on a pile of gold and silver and were able to convince enough people that the money system was unstable which is not all that hard to do because it is. Then if you were able to convince enough of them to invest in gold and silver as a hedge (seen the ads?) against inflation. 

Full well knowing and expecting the demand to drive the price of gold and silver up and increase the value of the pile you were sitting on. Then when you decide you wanted to take a profit, you simply sell off the pile of gold and silver you were sitting on and move your money out of the (now over valued) gold and silver market into another market. 

Leaving those who bought into the notion of gold and siver as a hedge against inflation holding the (now deflated) bag. Once the market bottomed out, if so inclined you'd simply buy your pile of gold and silver back at a lower price. Wash rinse repeat.


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

That's why I like copper plated lead. Thank god I bought early, bought often, and have some people in the know to help me.


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## AquaHull (Jun 10, 2012)

paraquack said:


> That's why I like copper plated lead. Thank god I bought early, bought often, and have some people in the know to help me.


I found some on my porch today, it's been such a long time since I've even thought about it.


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## Denton (Sep 18, 2012)

The banksters bought a crap pile of naked shorts and drove the price way down. There is now technical reason for gold/silver to fall like this.

Maybe, if we are lucky, it will stay low so we can buy at a discount, just like China is doing.

Good luck.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

This has been said but not yet proven. I am appalled that journalist do not puruse this story. If its true - WTF - is our govt/Fed doing playing in the markets. If its not true then clearly gold sellers who panicked made it up to sell gold and recover something from their losses.



Denton said:


> The banksters bought a crap pile of naked shorts and drove the price way down. There is now technical reason for gold/silver to fall like this.
> 
> Maybe, if we are lucky, it will stay low so we can buy at a discount, just like China is doing.
> 
> Good luck.


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## Seneca (Nov 16, 2012)

Remember the hunt brothers? well that maybe before your time...and somewhat different than what may be happening now...they cornered the silver market and basically got greedy and into legal hot water...which may have simply served to educated the next generation of PM traders to be a bit more careful and not get too greedy. 

Gold and silver have always been a commodity, no question about that. When it's a commodity that is also the bench mark by which the price of other goods are assessed...it behaves. When it is allowed to float it is subject to the same market forces and manipulations as any other commodity. I believe it is a good idea to have some silver coin and maybe a bit of gold for SHTF barter purposes.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Oh yes I recall the Hunts. They actually stopped me from buying my personal silver stash for a year or so. I remember when I learned it fell back below $6 (silver) and started buying again.

I sadly believe George Soro's is a big commodity manipulator today; with the assets it takes to move markets. There was plenty of chatter about him getting out at $45 a few years ago and
pushing it up to $35 before that.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

The US mint has suspended sales of American eagle silver so they can catch up with demand, the paper silver make shorts are pulling the price down, the physical market is oversold by 3 weeks to a month.

Oh and you can't find a bag of junk silver anywhere


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

They are on craigslist. I bought 15 Morgans this morning for 225 (15 each) which is about 80% of current spot.



Montana Rancher said:


> The US mint has suspended sales of American eagle silver so they can catch up with demand, the paper silver make shorts are pulling the price down, the physical market is oversold by 3 weeks to a month.
> 
> Oh and you can't find a bag of junk silver anywhere


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Ripon said:


> They are on craigslist. I bought 15 Morgans this morning for 225 (15 each) which is about 80% of current spot.


Wow that is a steal! Or should I say they were probably stolen hehe.

Yes individual coins are still around, a "bag" of junk silver is $1000 face value and they are sold out from all my normal sources.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

When ever I want to buy it seems like the sellers respond to my craigslist ads. If money is really tight
for me I don't buy, but if I have some extra once in a while I'll post an add - I usually offer 75% of 
coinflation.com and offer a link to the site - I get a bigger response the higher percent I offer. If I 
really want some coin I offer 90% but I don't buy that much any more. 

Yeah I hope the stuff isn't stolen - but for all I know the guy stole it from his parents to buy whatever
that $225 is going to get him - you do meat some interesting types.


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Ripon said:


> Yesterday I posted about my favorite, even secret, Canadian Commemorative Coin for its $20 per ounce of silver face vale. I switched all but my pre 64 silver to these coins over the past three years. When silver is below $20 it's hard because the face value makes seller demand more.
> 
> This coin is important to me because I believe deflation is a real risk. I'm looking at the collapse of PMs right now as a sign of deflation, if the stocks follow PMs and collapse a third of our markets equity could vanish just like half the value of our homes. See the pattern? Deflation would nearly destroy most PM holdings because cash is king.


I don't understand your point, it appears that production is down and the money supply is on an infinite expansion, both of which inflationary, what am I missing besides a slight adjustment in PMs?


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

We saw a draw back in metals to what 20%? I'm told that represents $5 trillion. Hence all of the bullion in the world would be worth $25 trillion correct? What if the markets (stocks) implode 50%? How many trillions would that eliminate? The housing market already destroyed trillions in capital. The only thing left is the stocks right now. Someone wrote recently the wealth of America is about $200 trillion and the world about $750 trillion. Cut that in half within a week and while there might be money available (digitally) people can't access home equity, lose stock and PM value and suddenly need cash for payments - loans. They have to sell (at a discount - deflated ) to raise the cash to make the payment. Now you are in a serious state of deflation. Cash is king, PMs not so much, and anything with debt is in real trouble. US Govt is fine as long as the dollar is the world currency at the time it can print its way thru.

The means to hyper inflation is the loss of reserve currency status for the dollar. Until that happens deflation is more likely.



Montana Rancher said:


> I don't understand your point, it appears that production is down and the money supply is on an infinite expansion, both of which inflationary, what am I missing besides a slight adjustment in PMs?


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## paraquack (Mar 1, 2013)

Latest in from MNBC
"Was the financial crisis the hangover from a gigantic coke binge?

That's the line of reasoning of David Nutt, a British professor of something called neuropsycopharmacologist.

From The Independent: 

The controversial academic, who was sacked for claiming that ecstasy was as safe as horse riding, told The Sunday Times that abuse of cocaine caused the financial meltdown.

"Bankers use cocaine and got us into this terrible mess," he told the paper, adding that the drug made them "overconfident" and led to them taking more risks.

Nutt, who is professor of neuropsychopharmacology at Imperial College, claimed that cocaine was perfect for a banking "culture of excitement and drive and more and more and more. It is a 'more' drug."
From reading this, I think the reporter is leaning the same way I do, WTF????


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

A Gust of Deflation Stirs Skittish Stock Market | Michael Santoli - Yahoo! Finance

To which I spoke of in the previous post someone else decided to make news with.


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## Smitty901 (Nov 16, 2012)

It is not that I fear either been through both in my life time . What I fear is this current hand out country's reaction to either.
Man has everyone forgotten Jimmy Cater and 23% interest rates for good credit.


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## Verteidiger (Nov 16, 2012)

I remember Carter and those interest rates. Crazy days.

I have not seen any signs of deflation anywhere recently. Gasoline/diesel varies, but lower prices from ridiculous prices is not deflation - it is a return to high prices.

I don't think we will see deflation as long as the Fed keeps interest rates so low.

And yes, I am a prepper - I fear everything and ignore nothing - LMAO!


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## Montana Rancher (Mar 4, 2013)

Ripon said:


> We saw a draw back in metals to what 20%? I'm told that represents $5 trillion. Hence all of the bullion in the world would be worth $25 trillion correct? What if the markets (stocks) implode 50%? How many trillions would that eliminate? The housing market already destroyed trillions in capital. The only thing left is the stocks right now. Someone wrote recently the wealth of America is about $200 trillion and the world about $750 trillion. Cut that in half within a week and while there might be money available (digitally) people can't access home equity, lose stock and PM value and suddenly need cash for payments - loans. They have to sell (at a discount - deflated ) to raise the cash to make the payment. Now you are in a serious state of deflation. Cash is king, PMs not so much, and anything with debt is in real trouble. US Govt is fine as long as the dollar is the world currency at the time it can print its way thru.
> 
> The means to hyper inflation is the loss of reserve currency status for the dollar. Until that happens deflation is more likely.


Thank you for the clarification but assets (stocks, houses) do not create inflation or deflation as they do not expand or detract the money supply. An asset may be worth more dollars because of inflation but that does not make it responsible for the inflation.

Only commodities (things consumed and produced) and availiable money ( or debt) effect inflation or deflation.


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## Ripon (Dec 22, 2012)

Stocks, PM's, and Houses etc are commodities though. In fact the three of them alone may be a significant sum of our commodities. And their dramatic decline in value is deflationary. Look at the pressure unemployment puts on wages, and how much the employed make vs 10 years ago. Even charished union (non public) jobs have lost some of their rate of pay. 

And yes I remember carter and inflation. Unlike then we have no pressure for higher wages, far less demand on supplies (other than ammo), and even a declining market place.


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